Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Gaidax]

That'd still be simplifying the data too much.

You have to factor in population density to calculate spread and impact. Yeah, Europe and Asia are hit hard because of how closely packed cities are. No shit it's spreading.

But the fact that in a country that's as spread out as the U.S. it's also spreading just as fast is testament to how ineffective containment procedures and the overall response from the government was.

If you want to be absolutely fair about this - current US hotspots are megalopolises with population density as high as it gets.

Reality is, despite various loudmouths, US is currently far from the worst hit country. I think people are really being dishonest there, which was pointed out previously.

[Endus]

If you want to be absolutely fair about this - current US hotspots are megalopolises with population density as high as it gets.

Reality is, despite various loudmouths, US is currently far from the worst hit country. I think people are really being dishonest there, which was pointed out previously.

You have yet to provide any data to back up that claim.

The data lies firmly against it.

You not liking the facts does not mean people are lying when they point them out to you.

[Zan15]

Fair enough, it is not so much just the supply it is knowing what took place all over the world and still enforcing no real measures until the boat has finally start sinking.

I find that, and for me personally that's where this criticism from the US comes from, ignoring donalds bumbling and stumbling around this as an elephant and china (porcelain) store.

Yup, they could have got a jump on the whole thing knowing what was coming out of china you could almost predict the exact things you would need and could have at that point paid companies like GM boo koo bucks to save lives by making vents and others could have been full on producing enough mask in this country by now to meet its needs.

[Belize]

If you want to be absolutely fair about this - current US hotspots are megalopolises with population density as high as it gets.

Reality is, despite various loudmouths, US is currently far from the worst hit country. I think people are really being dishonest there, which was pointed out previously.

Go back a few pages and see what I said about the numbers coming in from the U.S. in the next week or so.

I'm not saying the U.S. is currently the worst hit country (that'll always be China, the "official" numbers aren't believable). I'm saying that shit's about to hit the fan really hard here. The two~ish week incubation period is about to come home to roost for a lot of states that aren't megalopolises (hint Florida hint)

[Gaidax]

Again, the graph is looking at the rate of growth.

I know this doesn't make the USA look good, but there's a reason; their response to COVID-19 has been garbage. The data isn't lying, it's just telling you something you've decided you don't want to hear, so you're demanding that we not pay attention to the data.

Your graph, does not even take into account tests performed. What if, US leads in amount of tests done too? I, personally don't have that data, but if US manages to test significantly more than its "competitors" (because apparently, there is some sort of competition there), then much of that growth data is skewed to begin with.

Reality is, despite how much you jump out of your skin trying to say US is "teh worstest" - it's simply not.

And to calm your feels a bit, it's not like I'm exonerating Trump or something, his administration should have picked the tone they did yesterday a good 2 weeks ago, but all in all - US is not doing that horribly as you might want it to.

[tikcol]

Interesting read for Americans who believe they might be in the clear because they are living in more rural areas.

A few snippets and to highlight why a federal government slow, unwilling or incapable of acting is going to cause everywhere. What i believe is even more fatal for rural communities who generally struggle with simply a basic flue outbreak. It also is important to know why a divided message in the US is dangerous, what again is something the white house has done and right to far right wing influencers have continued to keep alive.



Wealth is not the cause of every concentrated outbreak dotting the United States. But it’s the common denominator of so much of its spread outside of major urban areas. It’s the reason why so many of the coronavirus hot spots in the Mountain West — Sun Valley, Idaho; Gunnison County, Colorado; Summit County, Utah; Gallatin County, Montana — overlap with winter playgrounds for the wealthy. The virus travels via people, and the people who travel the most, both domestically and internationally, are rich people.

All over the United States, people are fleeing urban areas with high infection rates for the perceived safety and natural beauty of rural areas. Some of them own second homes in those areas; others are paying upwards of $10,000 a month, depending on the area, for temporary housing. The common denominator among those populations is, again, wealth — either their own or their families’.


For now, in the absence of any clear federal guidelines restricting domestic travel, residents in many small towns across the US are drafting their own ad hoc policies for outside visitors.

This Pandemic Is Not Your Vacation

Popped up on my pocket app.

- - - Updated - - -



As Asians looked at Spain and Italy with disbelieve, why they did not act sooner. As Spain and Italy looked to The Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and so forth with disbelieve and how we are as Europeans now looking at the US with disbelieve...

I am not sure how this phenomenon is described yet, but it seems almost every country in the chain of this global spread made very similar mistakes in underestimating the virus and overestimating their capacity of handling it. This kind of language is completely warranted because people still don't get it and that's not just an American thing.

Seems some countries believe it wont happen in their country. The sad part is if they acted on time it might very well not have happened there.

Brazil seems like a special case so far. It seems their leaders simply don't give a shit

[Thepersona]

The numbers from different countries are close to meaningless.
Some aren't even testing, some don't have enough tests, some are outright lying, like Germany and their death %.
And it is sad, but nobody can change it.

You mean China, right?

[Endus]

Your graph, does not even take into account tests performed.

You're moving goalposts.

What if, US leads in amount of tests done too? I, personally don't have that data, but if US manages to test significantly more than its "competitors" (because apparently, there is some sort of competition there), then much of that growth data is skewed to begin with.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/f...ts-per-million

Italy, at least, is way ahead of you, per-capita. Data's limited, but you're attempting to make up an excuse, here, based on an absence of data, and that's fundamentally dishonest.

Reality is, despite how much you jump out of your skin trying to say US is "teh worstest" - it's simply not.

In terms of infection rate, by official numbers? Clearly it is. As already demonstrated, despite your protests.

[Shadowferal]

hmf...no deaths in Wyoming.
Yet.

[Belize]

hmf...no deaths in Wyoming.
Yet.

People live in Wyoming?

...Oh....

[Beefhammer]

In what universe?

Here's a comparative analysis, setting each country's zero point to the first time they had 200 new cases in a week, to give them an equal starting point not affected by varying initial outbreak dates;



In total numbers, USA is leading.

In the rate of how those figures are increasing, it's the fastest in the USA.
While the USA's curve appears to be starting to flatten, it's only in the last week, and when you compare to Spain or Italy, it's significantly behind their curves.

Edit: Note that the left-hand axis is not "total Coronavirus cases". It's "new Coronavirus cases in the last week". So the higher you are, the faster it's spreading; a higher initial count doesn't directly affect this (which is why China's and South Korea's numbers have cratered).

The scary part is that is only based on, at least in America, on people being tested that have already been showing signs of being infected, mostly. Most asymptomatic people cannot get tested at this time. So for America, that number could easily be quadrupled. Other places were mass testing it's people symptomatic or not.

[Gaidax]

is way ahead of you

Who's you, buddy?

I'm personally from Israel and compared to others we do brilliantly. I came to point out the obvious flaws in people's screeching about total numbers in US and the point still stands.

Other than that, I'm personally more interested about what is happening in my own country and I'm so far satisfied with how we do, despite fuckups like religious nuts not being able to help themselves but do their prayers bullshit gathering during a fracking plague.

[Shadowferal]

People live in Wyoming?
...Oh....

Population density just doesn't exist there.

[Blur4stuff]

Trump should have been prepared for this years ago. Just like any president. At the very least, they should have went into full gear back in January getting everyone ready and making sure we had the necessary stockpiles of equipment and getting all governors ready for full shutdowns.

Trump and some others did the complete opposite. What Trump did was worse than nothing. He actively made the US a worse place to be for handling this virus. Had Trump simply locked himself in his room and spent the past three months saying and doing nothing other than eating fast food and yelling at cable news, we'd be better off.

By the time this thing is over the US will absolutely be one of the worst countries hit no matter how you want to look at it, per capita or not. I'd wager that the US may even be worse off than China despite their obvious lying because China does some seriously hardcore lock downs that won't exist in the US.

Perhaps the only country that will be even worse than that is Brazil given that they have somehow managed to elect a worse version of Trump.

[Beefhammer]

Your graph, does not even take into account tests performed. What if, US leads in amount of tests done too? I, personally don't have that data, but if US manages to test significantly more than its "competitors" (because apparently, there is some sort of competition there), then much of that growth data is skewed to begin with.

Reality is, despite how much you jump out of your skin trying to say US is "teh worstest" - it's simply not.

And to calm your feels a bit, it's not like I'm exonerating Trump or something, his administration should have picked the tone they did yesterday a good 2 weeks ago, but all in all - US is not doing that horribly as you might want it to.

I can attest we are not testing at a rate we should. My wife works on a COVID-19 unit in a hospital, in a greater metro hit hard, they are only testing people with severe symptoms. We know full well many have it, are asymptomatic, and spreading it because, hey, I'm an American, not sick, I'll do what I please types.

Read about a father that was diagnosed, said fuck it, my daddy daughter dance is more important. He could have spread it to the dozens of others at that place including children because he was a stubborn and selfish asshole.

[PhaelixWW]

You have yet to provide any data to back up that claim.

The data lies firmly against it.

Countries by CFR:

11.8% - Italy
8.8% - Spain
8.3% - Netherlands
7.1% - UK
6.8% - France
6.5% - Iran
5.5% - Belgium
4.1% - Sweden
4.1% - China
3.5% - Brazil
3.2% - Denmark
2.6% - Japan
2.6% - Switzerland
2.5% - India
2.2% - USA

The list does keep going, as there are a decent number of countries below that mark, but I think this gives a comparative view to just "number of cases".

[Beefhammer]

Trump should have been prepared for this years ago. Just like any president. At the very least, they should have went into full gear back in January getting everyone ready and making sure we had the necessary stockpiles of equipment and getting all governors ready for full shutdowns.

Trump and some others did the complete opposite. What Trump did was worse than nothing. He actively made the US a worse place to be for handling this virus. Had Trump simply locked himself in his room and spent the past three months saying and doing nothing other than eating fast food and yelling at cable news, we'd be better off.

By the time this thing is over the US will absolutely be one of the worst countries hit no matter how you want to look at it, per capita or not. I'd wager that the US may even be worse off than China despite their obvious lying because China does some seriously hardcore lock downs that won't exist in the US.

Perhaps the only country that will be even worse than that is Brazil given that they have somehow managed to elect a worse version of Trump.

Outside of death rates, it already is and we are far from being out of it.

[Shadowferal]

fatality rate estimates show how sharply the risk rises with age

The fatality rate for people infected with the novel coronavirus is estimated to be less than 1%, according to a new study.

Among those whose infections cause them to become sickened by the disease known as COVID-19, the fatality rate is 1.38%, the study authors estimate.

Both fatality rates vary greatly with age, according to the report in the medical journal Lancet.

For instance, the fatality rate for infected people in their 20s is 0.03%, compared with 4.3% for people in their 70s. Likewise, the fatality rate for 20-somethings with COVID-19 is 0.06%, versus 8.6% for those in their 70s.

The oldest age group in the study is people who are 80 and up. For them, the fatality rate among people infected with the new coronavirus is 7.8%, rising to 13.4% among those sickened with COVID-19.

The figures are based on an analysis of 70,117 people whose cases were confirmed with a laboratory test or a doctor’s exam between Jan. 1 and Feb. 11. They were reported Monday by a team led by infectious disease experts from Imperial College London.

The 1.38% fatality rate among people who develop COVID-19 could change as the pandemic evolves, the study authors wrote, but it is “our best estimate at the current time.”

They noted that it’s lower than the fatality rates for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), both of which are also caused by coronaviruses.

However, they wrote, “it is substantially higher than estimates from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.”

[Strawberry]

Kudos on completely failing to explain why you think Sweden are handling it well.

Pesky thing called "facts" says otherwise.

Please don't bother with a handwaving non reply. ty in advance.

Which fact exactly?
The unreliable report is not a fact.

Out of all the tourists in Thailand during January - March out, about 25-30% are Chinese (some 10mil tourists are Chinese).

Here's an example of one of your facts:
Italy 60mil citizens, 110.000 infected
Thailand 69mil citizens, 1770 infected.

Keep believing your bullshit "facts".

[Zan15]

People live in Wyoming?

...Oh....

Ya I was about to build a bunker there but they have to many nukes there....so that ruined my hide out plans.