Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Dacien]

It's about being correct, nothing else.

To account for the difference in per capita rates, the US should be compared with a starting point of 550 cases, not 100, since the US is 5.5x the population of Italy.

That amounts to a leftward shift of 6 days (100 cases on 3/2 vs. 541 cases on 3/8).

A 6-day shift puts the US currently almost exactly in the same spot as Italy was at our point in the curve. We'd still be below Spain's curve, however.

Why are we shifting days? If you want to stack the US at 550 on top of Italy at 100, I get that, but we're not moving dates around. I haven't confirmed your conclusion, however.

Edit: It doesn't matter, I think it's the same either way. You guys go ahead and butcher it all up, I'm not cutting this up six ways from Sunday, changing dates and ratios.

[PhaelixWW]

Why are we shifting days? If you want to stack the US at 550 on top of Italy at 100, I get that, but we're not moving dates around. I haven't confirmed your conclusion, however.

The x-axis isn't in dates. It's in days since x number of cases. If you use 100 for Italy and 550 for the US (ie, normalizing the data per capita), then the graph for the US curve would be shifted 6 days to the left, so that 3/8 lines up with 0 instead of 3/2 lining up with 0.

[Gaidax]

Problem here is, do we have any choice? Lockdowns don't work, social distancing doesn't, these 2 only slow the virus.

Second problem here is the vaccine, we won't have any for the next 6 months, and when it comes out, the demand for it will be so hight and the production so low (around 100 000 a day) that most people in the world won't get any vaccine in the next 3-4 years.

Also, most med's currently under sars-cov2 testing, will take at least another 2-3 month's to finish tests, and once we finally discover one that works, their production will be controlled by 2-3 countries in the world, and we will have the same exact problem as in the vaccine.


I don't like it, the problem here is that i can't do a shit against this systhem. And no, there won't be 70 million people dying from coronavirus, you foirgetting that easely 25% of cases are assimptomatic.

I have have shifted from being a lockdown supporter (and i still support most of this systhem) to being someone that supports her imunity, i just don't support all people to be infected at the same time, so lockdowns must keep being a thing.

Most epidimiologists already support the herd imunity idea, because they know its spreading too fast, and that there won't be any med's for it, or when those med come out, there won't be enought to treat all of the ill people.

Herd immunity is very nice and all, that is until you find yourself in position of Italy - go ask their opinion on how that one goes.

But hey good news, Italy and Spain are sure on their track to achieve that herd immunity faster than others - ask them how happy they are about it.

You can't go for Herd Immunity if your healthcare can't handle the pace. This is why lockdowns are a thing. If you just let it go - you will have a literal WWII level of disaster and it's not some scaremongering there.

[Dacien]

The x-axis isn't in dates. It's in days since x number of cases. If you use 100 for Italy and 550 for the US (ie, normalizing the data per capita), then the graph for the US curve would be shifted 6 days to the left, so that 3/8 lines up with 0 instead of 3/2 lining up with 0.

At this point I'd be better off just finding a new graph.

[Zan15]

You are given dime a dozen of clarifications, it's 2020 - use bloody google and common sense.

You are given all the reasons in this thread already, so why play dumb? Yes, simple cloth masks even scarves and definitely surgical masks are good practice for everyone to use exactly for that one reason alone - if you are sick and unaware you reduce the amount of said particles you release significantly this way. In this situation every bit you can do helps, so just do it.

It's really that simple.

its not playing dumb its simple math. You know google it, stop playing dumb.

its also giving the false sense you can be safer than you really are, allowing people to think they can forget other actions they need to take....you know failure of "common sense"




Sorry you want to be such a D about having an actual discussion.

[Zaktar]

The x-axis isn't in dates. It's in days since x number of cases. If you use 100 for Italy and 550 for the US (ie, normalizing the data per capita), then the graph for the US curve would be shifted 6 days to the left, so that 3/8 lines up with 0 instead of 3/2 lining up with 0.

The X-axis is expressed in days, not cases. Changing the # of cases which sets the starting point would do little to change the shape of the curve, it would just make the US graph a little shorter.

[hellhamster]

Problem here is, do we have any choice? Lockdowns don't work, social distancing doesn't, these 2 only slow the virus.

Second problem here is the vaccine, we won't have any for the next 6 months, and when it comes out, the demand for it will be so hight and the production so low (around 100 000 a day) that most people in the world won't get any vaccine in the next 3-4 years.

Also, most med's currently under sars-cov2 testing, will take at least another 2-3 month's to finish tests, and once we finally discover one that works, their production will be controlled by 2-3 countries in the world, and we will have the same exact problem as in the vaccine.


I don't like it, the problem here is that i can't do a shit against this systhem. And no, there won't be 70 million people dying from coronavirus, you foirgetting that easely 25% of cases are assimptomatic.

I have have shifted from being a lockdown supporter (and i still support most of this systhem) to being someone that supports her imunity, i just don't support all people to be infected at the same time, so lockdowns must keep being a thing.

Most epidimiologists already support the herd imunity idea, because they know its spreading too fast, and that there won't be any med's for it, or when those med come out, there won't be enought to treat all of the ill people.

Herd immunity has to happen in a controlled manner, not the insanity we are witnessing today. Lockdowns to achieve that is the only proven thing that works if you look at countries with low death%.

A good example is to compare Sweden with Finland. They are also neighbouring so it makes the comparison easier.

[Deja Thoris]

At this point I'd be better off just finding a new graph.

You'd be better of understanding what you post before you post it. You're basically posting misinformation.

[Tuor]

Herd immunity is very nice and all, that is until you find yourself in position of Italy - go ask their opinion on how that one goes.

But hey good news, Italy and Spain are sure on their track to achieve that herd immunity faster than others - ask them how happy they are about it.

You can't go for Herd Immunity if your healthcare can't handle the pace. This is why lockdowns are a thing. If you just let it go - you will have a literal WWII level of disaster and it's not some scaremongering there.

I supposing that the mossad is alredy planning to put their hands on the vaccines, just like they did with other stuff. For most countries, the vaccine won't be a solution, because they just WON'T GET IT. Most countries doesn't have any other choice other then her imunity, offcourse, we have to do this in a controlled way so that the health service doesn't blow, we need to keep lockdowns and social distancing.

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Herd immunity has to happen in a controlled manner

Your words are mine, i have nothing else to say.

[PhaelixWW]

The X-axis is expressed in days, not cases. Changing the # of cases which sets the starting point would do little to change the shape of the curve, it would just make the US graph a little shorter.

It would literally shift it perfectly to the left by 6 days. That would have the side-effect of making the curve a bit shorter, as well.

[Gaidax]

I supposing that the mossad is alredy planning to put their hands on the vaccines, just like they did with other stuff. For most countries, the vaccine won't be a solution, because they just WON'T GET IT. Most countries doesn't have any other choice other then her imunity, offcourse, we have to do this in a controlled way so that the health service doesn't blow, we need to keep lockdowns and social distancing.

I'm sure Mossad will do a good job, every government with intelligence agencies worth their sort already does that.

We had a very interesting briefing on how that one works - basically you have half a dozen agencies fast on their feet purchasing necessary equipment from whoever sells that and often they end up stepping on each others toes.

Like there was an example given where after getting tipped off they arrived at seller's location only to find out others already taking the stock or how they already had a plane with equipment which was stopped last moment due to embargo. There's literally a race going on in the background and same will be with vaccines.

It starts with agents network tipping off, then there is verification whether this is a credible lead or just a dud, then they try and get the stuff before others and finally get it on the plane or other means.

[Tuor]

I'm sure Mossad will do a good job, every government with intelligence agencies worth their sort already does that.

We had a very interesting briefing on how that one works - basically you have half a dozen agencies fast on their feet purchasing necessary equipment from whoever sells that and often they end up stepping on each others toes.

Like there was an example given where after getting tipped off they arrived at seller's location only to find out others already taking the stock or how they already had a plane with equipment which was stopped last moment due to embargo. There's literally a race going on in the background and same will be with vaccines.

It starts with agents network tipping off, then there is verification whether this is a credible lead or just a dud, then they try and get the stuff before others and finally get it on the plane or other means.

Sure... If you can't have it on your own... Just ninja it.

[Gaidax]

its not playing dumb its simple math. You know google it, stop playing dumb.

its also giving the false sense you can be safer than you really are, allowing people to think they can forget other actions they need to take....you know failure of "common sense"

Honestly? Whatever floats your boat, mate.

I can't cure stupid and if you want to try and resist with your arms and legs, it's on you.

Thankfully our government here had a lick of sense to order everyone to do it and that's while we're in far better situation than US. So I mean, whatever m8. You can do whatever you want over there, it's up to your government to sort out, not me.

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Sure... If you can't have it on your own... Just ninja it.

Pretty much, but honestly - 0 fucks given. If it's being sold by whoever sells it - you buy it. Whatever you see in ebay and shit is going on much more industrial scale all over the world and it's not up to us to police what's going on in other countries, if they allow it to be sold, it's not our problem.

[Zaktar]

It would literally shift it perfectly to the left by 6 days. That would have the side-effect of making the curve a bit shorter, as well.

Yes, which doesn't make the x-axis about cases but might put the US's curve higher than Italy's. I agree that as presented it misrepresents the data, just not with what you literally said in the quote.

[Themius]

Uh, no. Since surgical masks don't effectlvely block the inhalation of larger particles, those larger particles are indeed a problem for the vast majority of people.

Except they do...

Again, surgical masks don't effectively block inhalation of infectious particles. Their limited effectiveness will likely be overcome by the very real likelihood that many people will feel a false sense of security and thus maintain longer, more proximal contact with others, despite official distancing guidelines.

They block inhalation by stopping large droplets.

Surgical masks are not fitted; leakage is a given. Even with respirators, it is difficult to achieve adequate fit and seal without proper training. And the amount to which the leakage might affect filtration is not considered as a part of the standard measurements for surgical masks, whereas it is for respirators.

There are better fitting surgical masks, also there are studies on this that say n95 and surgical masks are very close when it comes to protection one was just done last year that looked at 7 other studies across America.

No, I assumed that you were talking about respirators because you were talking about the 95% being a rating for inhalation (on the healthy person to prevent inhalation of infectious particles from an unmasked infected person), which only applies to respirators. I made that very clear in my post.

Except you're wrong because there are several grades of surgical mask which have differing degrees. This 95% rating you are talking about is not what I was talking about. I was explicitly noting concerning 0.5 micron n95 blocked 98%-99.99% while surgical mask ranged from 95%-98% for well fitting. it does not only apply to respirators Which was the study I posted previously

I did get the numbers wrong though for the surgical masks.

The percentages of filtered materials by the way is for bacterial at 3 microns and particles at 0.1 microns

n95 - 98-99.99%
ASTM 3 98%
ASTM 2 - 98%
ASTM 1 - 95%

ASTM 2 and 3 both have higher resistance when breathing aka better filtration than ASTM1

You keep raving like a lunatic about this, but the point is that PFE for surgical masks doesn't take into account the fit and particle leakage. You keep stating that it somehow does without data to support that.

I literally posted about this I linked it, and it even notes n95 ranged from being 60% to 99% effective depending on what the user did.

You literally just ignored the source that I showed that implied otherwise. The rating is for the material of the mask. It's not an indication of complete filtration at that rate, because, you know, fit and leakage.

Did I? I read your source. I noted your airborne issue very early, and we have studies comparing n95 to surgical mask finding them about as effective as each other, one just done last year.

Funny, most medical documentation on masks indicate that their primary function is to protect the patients, not the doctor. I guess you think they're all lying, then.

The only thing surgical masks are primarily supposed to protect the wearer from are larger things like splashes, sprays, bone chips, and other procedural emissions.

Oh yes it is important for that reason, but to pretend they offer absolutely zero tangible benefit against sick people is foolish. Plenty of doctors say otherwise. Studies that don't recommend them still say there is some benefit but that it isn't very large but still a benefit.

Now it's clear that you're arguing just to argue. Nothing in what I said implied that the other shapes were more common than spherical.

Except it did unless you think word placement doesn't matter.

Everything I said was accurate.

But while labratory-bred influenza is mostly spherical, it is not indicative of actual infectious particles shed from humans:

Mmm so what do we know then? That it is spherical usually and can also have filaments and they're simply telling you what they don't know.



Oh... so that whole roundabout was just to agree with my statement that "size isn't really the issue, though"?

Very well, I accept your apology!



Yeah, this garbled mess isn't even readable, sorry. I have no idea what you're trying to say.[/QUOTE]

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its not playing dumb its simple math. You know google it, stop playing dumb.

its also giving the false sense you can be safer than you really are, allowing people to think they can forget other actions they need to take....you know failure of "common sense"


Sorry you want to be such a D about having an actual discussion.

If we are going to use simple math, one thing everyone agrees is the sick need to wear mask, but with 20-25% of people being asymptomatic... it becomes necessary for everyone to wear masks since you literally have no idea who is and isn't sick.

That's seems pretty simple.

[PhaelixWW]

Yes, which doesn't make the x-axis about cases but might put the US's curve higher than Italy's. I agree that as presented it misrepresents the data, just not with what you literally said in the quote.

Just because the x-axis is not incremented by case count does not mean it's not related to cases.

I mean, my statement here was absolutely correct:

The x-axis isn't in dates. It's in days since x number of cases.

Changing the y-intercept literally shifts the curve to the left or right. In this case, the shift is moving the curve to the left. This is kinda basic algebra.

[Shadowferal]

First peer-reviewed coronavirus vaccine shows promise

The study showed that when tested in mice, the vaccine produced antibodies that were specific to the current coronavirus, and in quantities that are likely sufficient to neutralize the virus.

Unlike many vaccines, the Pitt-developed version would be delivered by a fingertip-sized patch that scratches the surface of a recipient's skin. The scientists said the immune system reacts more strongly to irritations on the skin, in hopes of triggering it to recognize the coronavirus more quickly.

The delivery method is similar to a vaccine used to eradicate smallpox, said Louis Falo, chair of the dermatology department at the Pitt School of Medicine and the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. Falo said the team hoped to begin tests on human volunteers in short order.

"We'd like to begin testing in patients as soon as possible," Falo said. "We would like to be in a phase one clinical trial in weeks. Not a week, maybe a month."

The Pitt vaccine is at least the fourth potential candidate in the research pipeline so far. Johnson & Johnson said this week it had identified what it called a promising candidate, and that it would begin human trials by September. Last month, the first human trials of an experimental vaccine developed by Moderna began at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. The German research firm CureVac is developing its own vaccine.

Experts warned that no vaccine is proven to work until it has gone through the rigorous testing process — and in some historical cases, vaccines that have rushed to market have turned out to cause more harm than they solved.

[Benggaul]

What? That's even higher then we've had in a day.

I think things got started there before they did here, I think. I said it before but I think next week and a few weeks from now we'll see spikes here.

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We are a week ahead of the Netherlands i believe in time frame, exponential growth plays a big factor here. Also some communities like the turkish one got hit harder than others.

They expect us to hit our peak the earliest next week. So there's that.

Ugh, I should have read further before posting. Trying to stay updated on this thread from my phone is problematic when the page numbers don't show. haha

[Puupi]

I think things got started there before they did here, I think.

Is that even possible? Belgium and Netherlands are so intertwined.

[Shadowferal]

Sounds like Italy has been getting higher numbers with recoveries, and lower number of new cases..."flattening the curve" as it were.