Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Mayhem]

Death rate means nothing. Or well, it does but what is the interesting number is the active cases, which has gone down.

Uhm, if you have just enough more people dying than are reinfected every day the interesting number would go down, while the corpses would pile up.

[Gorsameth]

People with real capital have a very varied portfolio, possibly investing in hundreds or even thousands of companies. He certainly doesn't manages this all by himself, he probably has a team of investors.

A huge uproar about nothing, which is precisely what we don't need right now.

Which is why previously Presidents made sure to distance themselves from any funds/investments they had so that there wouldn't be an uproar over supposed conflict of interest. Its a problem that purely exists because of Trump.

[lockybalboa]

Alright! We've had a decline in new cases yesterday and things are looking rosy so far. Hopefully we will peak soon! #flattenitbaby

[hellhamster]

Well active cases have started dropping in Greece. Hoping last day was not a fluke.

Real progress can only be measured in weekly reports. Daily reports can be days late due to processing.

But I still think we can really pat ourselves on the back for how well we've managed so far. I certainly wasn't expecting it, considering how horrible Mati was managed, admittedly by the previous administration. My Dutch boss thought we were like Spain and Italy because we are socially similar and was pretty much hat in hand with me when we were talking about covid until I told him that we're fine. We made huge sacrifices and will need to continue doing so.

People however are slowly losing it. We will definitely need some well planned lockdown appeasement, and soon.

[Inuyaki]

"Berlin says it never claimed 3M was involved (it was “the media” that did) and doesn’t know who the manufacturer of the missing masks was"

So, how can they not know the manufacturer of a product they assumedly paid 200.000 euros for? Kinda weaksauce case they got there.

They either got scammed by some Chinese alibaba company and are imagining elephants, or they are lying. I'm inclining towards the first.

And why would those be "bound" to a US directive? (Since it was in Bangkok, not even US companies would have been bound technically I think)
Also why should they lie? They already paid the money. You think it would not be easy to prove if they would lie about the payment?

[Krastyn]

"Berlin says it never claimed 3M was involved (it was “the media” that did) and doesn’t know who the manufacturer of the missing masks was"

So, how can they not know the manufacturer of a product they assumedly paid 200.000 euros for? Kinda weaksauce case they got there.

They either got scammed by some Chinese alibaba company and are imagining elephants, or they are lying. I'm inclining towards the first.

Even one step further:

so far there’s no proof that the shipment in question even ended up in the U.S.

So at this point they're just flinging shit.

[Naiyano]

Like others said, the only real number to calculate spread is the amount of hospitalizations, ICUs used and capacity. Number of infected is irrelevant, as infections can only be amounted to limited tests, which are often inaccurate. One could argue that deaths are also a good number to calculate spread, but many countries such as Germany have a different view on how to ascertain cause of death.

This is a realy widespread rumor that is not true. Germany does not differ between people who died to covid-19 and people who died with covid-19 according to the Robert Koch Institut. So if you die of a heartattack and have covid-19 you are offically counted as a covid-19 death in Germany. I would link you the source but it's in german of course.

If you die and there is suspicion that you could have died of covid-19 than you might get a test, but of course we do not test everyone who died in Germany. If there is no reason to believe it's covid-19 then the test is useless and better test someone who is still alive.

But if you like to translate by yourself feel free to do so: https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutsc...zaehlt,RtnpYVL

It is my understanding that other countries like spain and italy do the same.

Around 40% of our ICUs are still not used and we can add another 40% within 24 hours. Germany has around 30.000 ICUs all over the country at the moment and is aiming for around 40.000. Massive testing allows for close monitoring and better treatment of patients, because you discover them early and not when they have to got to the hospital because it's getting to bad.

Germans pay 14% of their monthly income on health care. The employer pays another 14% of the income to it. So basicly 28% of the income from a german employee goes to health care. The german healthcare system is well funded and not ran down like in other countries.

That said, the german death rate will rise in the future.

[hellhamster]

And why would those be "bound" to a US directive? (Since it was in Bangkok, not even US companies would have been bound technically I think)
Also why should they lie? They already paid the money. You think it would not be easy to prove if they would lie about the payment?

Come on man, face the facts.
You've got Berlin officials stating they bought 200.000 masks from a manufacturer they don't even know the name of, using an unnamed German medical supplier, using tracking information from a nameless postal service in contact with the unnamed medical supplier.

They would have basis for their claims if they could name everyone surrounding it, so far it's all hearsay.

[Mayhem]

The measures taken in Austria seem to work, let's see what the future brings.

[hellhamster]

This is a realy widespread rumor that is not true. Germany does not differ between people who died to covid-19 and people who died with covid-19 according to the Robert Koch Institut. So if you die of a heartattack and have covid-19 you are offically counted as a covid-19 death in Germany. I would link you the source but it's in german of course.

If you die and there is suspicion that you could have died of covid-19 than you might get a test, but of course we do not test everyone who died in Germany. If there is no reason to believe it's covid-19 then the test is useless and better test someone who is still alive.

But if you like to translate by yourself feel free to do so: https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutsc...zaehlt,RtnpYVL

It is my understanding that other countries like spain and italy do the same.

Around 40% of our ICUs are still not used and we can add another 40% within 24 hours. Germany has around 30.000 ICUs all over the country at the moment and is aiming for around 40.000. Massive testing allows for close monitoring and better treatment of patients, because you discover them early and not when they have to got to the hospital because it's getting to bad.

Germans pay 14% of their monthly income on health care. The employer pays another 14% of the income to it. So basicly 28% of the income from a german employee goes to health care.

That said, the german death rate will rise in the future.

It does indeed seem that Germany tests more extensively and is actually early on the curve, however they don't test post mortem as often or even not at all, which is the real nutcracker.

[ranzino]

The measures taken in Austria seem to work, let's see what the future brings.

https://i.imgur.com/zP47ptK.jpg

austrian chancellor Kurz seems to get his shit together. germany on the other hand is now plagued by its federalism: ask 16 heads of federal states and you'll get ~20 answers.

[Acidbaron]

@Mayhem Also seems despite the slow start that the Austrian government is re-opening things slowly again.

[cuafpr]

So once this over do you think people will leave hotspots via mass exodus? Will people no longer desire to live in densely populated cities, causing price crashes in the cities and spikes in rural home values?

it's something I've been discussing with friends/family as I suspect cities to lose a large part of the population as they move from apart/cook-cutter no yard neighborhoods to more rural spaces.

[PhaelixWW]

Alright! We've had a decline in new cases yesterday and things are looking rosy so far. Hopefully we will peak soon! #flattenitbaby

Oh, shit, not this again. In real news, it's just after 9am on the west coast and US deaths are already over +900. That's hardly rosy.

[lockybalboa]

Oh, shit, not this again. In real news, it's just after 9am on the west coast and US deaths are already over +900. That's hardly rosy.

Holy shit.. Numbers just spiked in last hour all right. But we did have a decline yesterday so fingers crossed

[btlcryct]

Well, this isn't good news.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/51-rec...n-south-korea/

Hopefully it's people that hadn't fully recovered, but SK did manage better than most initially.

[hellhamster]

Holy shit.. Numbers just spiked in last hour all right. But we did have a decline yesterday so fingers crossed

Daily reports aren't accurate due to processing time. Weekly is more accurate, albeit more panic inducing.

[Omega10]

Well, this isn't good news.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/51-rec...n-south-korea/

Hopefully it's people that hadn't fully recovered, but SK did manage better than most initially.

This is HORRIBLE news. Not only is it returning, but the wording of the article implies that getting it once does not give you immunity.

At least 51 patients diagnosed as having fully recovered from the coronavirus in South Korea have tested positive a second time after leaving quarantine, according to officials.

The patients from Daegu all tested positive in a “relatively short time” after they were given the all-clear from their initial infections, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said, according to the government-funded Yonhap News Agency.

I really really hope that this is misquoted, or a flat out lie, or a mistake, or ANYTHING

Doctors on the front lines in Wuhan — where the virus first originated — previously said as many as 10% of those assumed to have recovered had tested positive again. At least one patient — Li Liang, 36 — reportedly died from the disease after previously getting the all-clear.

I don't think it's a misquote or mistaken. It looks like the reinfection rate is a fairly significant number of people. This complicates things quite a bit.

One final snippet from the article:

For now, the KCDC’s director-general, Jeong Eun-kyeong, believes it is likely the infection was re-activated after remaining dormant in the patients, as opposed to them being reinfected, the report said.

So the current thought is that some percentage of people that get it once, and get over it, will have it infect them again. This seems fixable, but we'll need to retest everyone who gets it on a regular basis (once a week tests? x 8 weeks x 1 million worldwide cases = 8 million additional tests).

[Mayhem]

@Mayhem Also seems despite the slow start that the Austrian government is re-opening things slowly again.

In a month from now, so they do take their time and don't want to rush things, well apart from measures that are outright unconstitutional but that's pretty much standard procedure for the current government and it's enlightened savior wonderboy Kurz.

[Gorsameth]

So once this over do you think people will leave hotspots via mass exodus? Will people no longer desire to live in densely populated cities, causing price crashes in the cities and spikes in rural home values?

it's something I've been discussing with friends/family as I suspect cities to lose a large part of the population as they move from apart/cook-cutter no yard neighborhoods to more rural spaces.

You might see a temporary mass exodus of people wanting to go on vacation but there is no way we suddenly stop being a city-centric civilisation. Live is going to resume as before and it will seem like it never happened (minus the effects of a recession) a whole lot sooner then you might think.