Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[s_bushido]

welp..umm...oops?

He's literally just reporting the numbers they have. And since they include the numbers from China, I guess we're finished saying that they're lying about it, right?

[Breccia]

Amazon worker in Seattle tests positive.

[Muajin76]

Hmm..so i'm moving back to JPN this summer. Hopefully things will be calmed down by then. Some companies are having employees working from home as well as schools being closed for a few weeks.

- - - Updated - - -

https://soranews24.com/2020/03/02/pe...avirus-crisis/
daaaam. that's a shame!
I know things in Japan haven't been this bad since 2011, but that didn't affect the entire country like this is. Shelves going out of stock of things like tissue and TP almost as soon as they get put on the shelves. Also Costco in the states and other stores are showing people panic buying as well.

[Remilia]

Or... Authoritarian governments that couldn't give less a fuck about personal freedoms are really good at imposing quarantines.

So... to put historical (last year) bullshit number practice into perspective. China reported 143(145?) flu deaths last year. Compared to every other country with death tolls in the thousands, a population of 1.4b with a heavy skew to elderly, only reported 143 flu deaths. If we rewind 17 years, this also happened with SARS 1 where they reported 10% death rate vs 15% globally. So yeah, it's safe to say their numbers are bullshit.

[jonnysensible]

So that Korean Cult were getting infected members to go to traditional churches to try and spread it, in order to take the heat off them. Like it was a fucking pr exercise.

- - - Updated - - -

I work near a prison and was wondering how prisons plan to handle a situation like this.. I guess it'll fall to the states and William Barr at the federal level.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51723398

the homeless are going to be a major risk too, its bad man.

[shadowmouse]

@Remilia Almost everybody's numbers are to some extent BS. In China it is a matter of deaths being recorded by the final cause of death (see below).

But there was an epidemic in early 2019. In January 2019, the number of flu cases in the Chinese mainland reached 608,511, with 143 deaths. In the first five months of 2019 alone, the number of reported cases of influenza reached 1.77 million, exceeding the total of the past four years.

Chinese netizens questioned why the flu death rate in China is much lower than that in the US given the overall coverage of flu vaccines in China is less than 2 percent, far lower than the rate of developed countries, including the US. Some doubted the effectiveness of the vaccines.

"The US flu mortality rate includes cases where flu causes other illnesses to worsen and lead to death, while China only counts people who die directly from flu," an observer who prefers to be anonymous told the Global Times.

The statistical methods used by the Chinese CDC should be revised, as deaths from pneumonia caused by the flu, for example, are not counted, the observer said.

Observers called for an improved statistical approach, and encouraged the public to get an annual flu shot.

An analysis led by Chinese scientists published in The Lancet Public Health in September 2019 found that there were 84,200 to 92,000 flu-related deaths in China each year, accounting for 8.2 percent of all deaths from respiratory diseases.

While one might think that makes the US look better, I'd call US figures even worse bullshit because even the Chinese question their statistics, while the US figures are damned near science-fiction but people think they're actual statistics. Want to see scary? Look at the US CDC site for flu and read what they're really reporting:

CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the U.S. However, CDC has estimated the burden of flu since 2010 using a mathematical model that is based on data collected through the U.S. Influenza Surveillance System, a network that covers approximately 8.5% of the U.S. population (~27 million people).

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

So, flu generally isn't even a reportable disease, and the overall estimate comes from a sample size of 8.5% of the population. Now for this gem:

Third, estimates of influenza-associated illness and medical visits are based on data from prior seasons, which may not be accurate if the seriousness of illness or patterns of care-seeking have changed.

Even the Chinese can't believe the way that data is collected and used, but they do believe it proves we're really bad at math.

[Onikaroshi]

This whole thing just shows how much the american healthcare system and workers rights needs to change.

Many jobs don't give sick leave or vaction, even more count your absent days and won't think twice about canning you if you surpass them.

Used to work a halfway decent job in medical (plasma donation) we got 7 points, no call no show was 2 points, an excused absence was 1 point, and being late for any reason (late being 5 minutes over) was half a point (up to 1 hour, then it was a full point). This was on a rolling year, so god forbid you had an especially bad winter.

Catch the coronavirus, good bye job, they're asking for like 14 days isolation or something, that's far more then most businesses in the US will allow. And even if they do allow it, good luck if you get sick any other time in the year. Get the flu in September now? Guess you're going into work to get the rest sick.

And my god... trying to make ends meet when most places don't give sick pay.... you shouldn't have to use your vacation when under hospital ordered isolation.... if you even do get them.

Basically, for many people, even some decently well off ones, it's get the Coronavirus and your life is wrecked. I have a feeling in the US most people just aren't going to report it, the mortality rate amongst healthy adults is extremely low.

[Muajin76]

Anyone else worried about their pet getting CV?

[Cinnamilk]

My arrival date to Japan has been pushed forward 5 days, and the start of the semester has been pushed back to accommodate 14 days of home isolation. Got news of this the night of mailing my visa application.

[Muajin76]

My arrival date to Japan has been pushed forward 5 days, and the start of the semester has been pushed back to accommodate 14 days of home isolation. Got news of this the night of mailing my visa application.

I'll be moving there the end of July. Hopefully this situation will improve my chances of landing a job there.

[shadowmouse]

@Muajin76 Stop that! You know darned well that came up earlier in the thread as part of the dog beating derail and that it was linked that there is no reason to worry about pets catching COVID-19. That's just baiting people.

[Poe]

Catch the coronavirus, good bye job,

More like catch the coronavirus and go to work anyways.

When I get flu-like illnesses, I don't even go to a doctor, I wash down some ibuprofen and a cough suppressant and suck it up and push through the day. If I got the coronavirus, I'd probably just think it was the flu and I wouldn't even go to a doctor,

[The Oblivion]

More like catch the coronavirus and go to work anyways.

When I get flu-like illnesses, I don't even go to a doctor, I wash down some ibuprofen and a cough suppressant and suck it up and push through the day. If I got the coronavirus, I'd probably just think it was the flu and I wouldn't even go to a doctor,

its not even as bad as the flu for most, you would probably think its a cold lol

[sabe]

India is on approach on left lane.
28 infected.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/int...w/73978271.cms

I look this on the bright side; if this kills all the 50+ aged governers all over the world, we may have a brighter future.

[Deathknightish]

How come we haven't seen people fall down, dead randomly on the streets outside of regime states?

There's so much fake news circulating about this virus. You become impotent, it attaches to your brain stem or your nervous system and will slowly kill you even if you recover, even if you survive you are scarred with permanent lung damage so you have to use a machine for the rest of your life, yadda yadda yadda.

People seem to ignore all the recovered people with no bi effects...

[Mihalik]

So... to put historical (last year) bullshit number practice into perspective. China reported 143(145?) flu deaths last year. Compared to every other country with death tolls in the thousands, a population of 1.4b with a heavy skew to elderly, only reported 143 flu deaths. If we rewind 17 years, this also happened with SARS 1 where they reported 10% death rate vs 15% globally. So yeah, it's safe to say their numbers are bullshit.

With the risk of appearing to be defending the Chinese (I'm not, I think everyone is just massively overreacting), the global death rate for SARS was just under 10%.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...060?via%3Dihub

I don't know what were the reporting differences between China and other countries, but considering that SARS only infected about 8000 people globally and killed just under 800, a 5% variation would have been well within the margin of error due to the small sample size!

According to people studying influenza reporting in China, the issue seems to be primarily local officials fudging the reporting to try to look good with the central government. The Chinese government has been trying to improve in this area as well, but they are still far far from being reliable.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...158-6/fulltext

Tho it does seem that in situations like SARS or Covid19 they are going for transparency, tho sure as shit not by their own volition but rather due to the circumstances.

I might be ultimately wrong, but until proven otherwise we really need to fucking reign in the conspiracy theories and panic.

[Muajin76]

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump still claimed only one death so far in the US.

- - - Updated - - -

@Muajin76 Stop that! You know darned well that came up earlier in the thread as part of the dog beating derail and that it was linked that there is no reason to worry about pets catching COVID-19. That's just baiting people.

OK! I had to look it up. Fine fine!!

[shadowmouse]

ignore all the recovered people with no bi effects

Wait, recovered people are turning bi! First it was frogs being turned gay, now this. Dastardly, General Ripper was right.

Do you realize that in addition to fluoridating water, why, there are studies underway to fluoridate salt, flour, fruit juices, soup, sugar, milk, ice cream? Ice cream, Mandrake? Children's ice cream!...You know when fluoridation began?...1946. 1946, Mandrake. How does that coincide with your post-war Commie conspiracy, huh? It's incredibly obvious, isn't it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual, and certainly without any choice. That's the way your hard-core Commie works. I first became aware of it, Mandrake, during the physical act of love...Yes, a profound sense of fatigue, a feeling of emptiness followed. Luckily I-I was able to interpret these feelings correctly. Loss of essence. I can assure you it has not recurred, Mandrake. Women, er, women sense my power, and they seek the life essence. I do not avoid women, Mandrake...but I do deny them my essence.

[Skulltaker]

Note the catch to that figure though. The next paragraph of that article goes on to state:



More broadly, I found this to be an interesting article: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/h...ons/index.html

The article itself may be worth a read, it is a bit long to block quote though. The parts I found interesting were:

It isn't so much that H1N1 burned out like SARS, it just got folded in with seasonal flu (and checking other sources it appears H1N1 is part of the seasonal flu shot now).


The closing point of the article seems to suggest that even if COVID-19 doesn't burn out like SARS there may well be a point that people themselves burn out on it. Who talks about H1N1 these days?



For another interesting read: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/o...ips/index.html
That's an ER doctor's opinions on how things look going into a possible broader outbreak of COVID-19 in the US. I see he discusses telemedicine but unlike what was mentioned in a previous post he doesn't seem to say there is a clear CDC plan for people to call in. He does address a point that I've had particular concerns about in the US context (where my 80 year old high risk parents live):

Of course it will depend on healthcare infrastructure, but still, that is almost 175% the mortality rate that was previously assumed.

H1N1 was rolled in with the flu, correct. H1N1 also had a rather low mortality rate, below 0.1%. IIRC, the WHO estimate said that around 15% of the world's population were infected with H1N1. Numbers are a bit iffy, but H1N1 claimed something in between 200.000 and 600.000 lives, during a ~14 months outbreak.

If Prof. Dr. Marc Lipsitch, who teaches Epidemiology at Harvard, is to be believed, this thing will a) not be contained, and b) will infect 40-70% of the population over the next 12 months. I'll let you do the math with these mortality rates.

[Muajin76]

Wait, recovered people are turning bi! First it was frogs being turned gay, now this. Dastardly, General Ripper was right.

hmm..i feel sorry for the thousands of married couples. :P