1. #1141
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deathknightish
    ignore all the recovered people with no bi effects
    Wait, recovered people are turning bi! First it was frogs being turned gay, now this. Dastardly, General Ripper was right.
    Do you realize that in addition to fluoridating water, why, there are studies underway to fluoridate salt, flour, fruit juices, soup, sugar, milk, ice cream? Ice cream, Mandrake? Children's ice cream!...You know when fluoridation began?...1946. 1946, Mandrake. How does that coincide with your post-war Commie conspiracy, huh? It's incredibly obvious, isn't it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual, and certainly without any choice. That's the way your hard-core Commie works. I first became aware of it, Mandrake, during the physical act of love...Yes, a profound sense of fatigue, a feeling of emptiness followed. Luckily I-I was able to interpret these feelings correctly. Loss of essence. I can assure you it has not recurred, Mandrake. Women, er, women sense my power, and they seek the life essence. I do not avoid women, Mandrake...but I do deny them my essence.
    "No one -- however smart, however well-educated, however experienced -- is the suppository of all wisdom"

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  2. #1142
    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmouse View Post
    Note the catch to that figure though. The next paragraph of that article goes on to state:



    More broadly, I found this to be an interesting article: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/h...ons/index.html

    The article itself may be worth a read, it is a bit long to block quote though. The parts I found interesting were:

    It isn't so much that H1N1 burned out like SARS, it just got folded in with seasonal flu (and checking other sources it appears H1N1 is part of the seasonal flu shot now).


    The closing point of the article seems to suggest that even if COVID-19 doesn't burn out like SARS there may well be a point that people themselves burn out on it. Who talks about H1N1 these days?



    For another interesting read: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/o...ips/index.html
    That's an ER doctor's opinions on how things look going into a possible broader outbreak of COVID-19 in the US. I see he discusses telemedicine but unlike what was mentioned in a previous post he doesn't seem to say there is a clear CDC plan for people to call in. He does address a point that I've had particular concerns about in the US context (where my 80 year old high risk parents live):
    Of course it will depend on healthcare infrastructure, but still, that is almost 175% the mortality rate that was previously assumed.

    H1N1 was rolled in with the flu, correct. H1N1 also had a rather low mortality rate, below 0.1%. IIRC, the WHO estimate said that around 15% of the world's population were infected with H1N1. Numbers are a bit iffy, but H1N1 claimed something in between 200.000 and 600.000 lives, during a ~14 months outbreak.

    If Prof. Dr. Marc Lipsitch, who teaches Epidemiology at Harvard, is to be believed, this thing will a) not be contained, and b) will infect 40-70% of the population over the next 12 months. I'll let you do the math with these mortality rates.

  3. #1143
    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmouse View Post
    Wait, recovered people are turning bi! First it was frogs being turned gay, now this. Dastardly, General Ripper was right.
    hmm..i feel sorry for the thousands of married couples. :P
    The hunter hoe with the least beloe.

  4. #1144
    https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance...waa036/5775463

    Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S).

    This is going bad. Mutation lessens my hopes for a cure.
    Got 3/3 Improved Blizzard but they still fail.

  5. #1145
    33 cases but no deaths here so far seems it only kill old and weak people.

    Has there even been any kids dying from this?
    Do you hear the voices too?

  6. #1146
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    I don't know what were the reporting differences between China and other countries, but considering that SARS only infected about 8000 people globally and killed just under 800, a 5% variation would have been well within the margin of error due to the small sample size!
    Most of the deaths occur when medical staff gets infected and in turn infect at-risk patients in hospitals.

    That's why it's important to treat people with corona in separate locations.

  7. #1147
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    @Skulltaker While the 40-70% prediction is getting a lot of talk, such articles as I can find are mighty thin on how he arrives at that figure (and that's one hell of a range). Even this site -- https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hs...e-coronavirus/ -- says only:

    With widespread outbreaks in several countries, COVID-19 is getting closer to being a pandemic in which a large proportion of the human population becomes infected, although not all will show symptoms. Michael Mina said that it is not clear that an epidemic is transitioning to a pandemic until it is happening. Marc Lipsitch estimated that 40 to 70 percent of people could be infected by the virus that causes COVID-19 if it becomes pandemic.
    I'd prefer not to have one more thing to kill me, but so far this year's flu still seems way out front.

    @ Muajin76 Expect your local community to hit you with new paperwork. It is mainly the usual stuff, but there are now sections asking when you last entered the country and what countries you passed through in the last two weeks.

    And hey, at least it is good news for Miss Piggy, she and Kermit may just have some odd threesomes.
    "No one -- however smart, however well-educated, however experienced -- is the suppository of all wisdom"

    Sixty years. One sexagenary cycle complete, a new adventure awaits.
    shadowmouse, previously bungeebungee

  8. #1148
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    Media isn't helping the situation at all with all the scaremongering, it's no worse than Flu outbreaks that happen multiple times a year but you don't see the media reporting on those cases...

  9. #1149
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Up The Gary
    it's no worse than Flu outbreaks
    For certain measurements of "worse" it is. The catch is that unless it has a catchy name to make it stand out, it is just "flu" and nobody cares. Nobody cares, but right now in the US those CDC figures that make me facepalm hard enough to cause TBI say:

    CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 22, 2020, there have been:

    32,000,000 – 45,000,000 flu illnesses
    14,000,000 – 21,000,000 flu medical visits
    310,000 – 560,000 flu hospitalizations
    18,000 – 46,000 flu deaths
    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm
    "No one -- however smart, however well-educated, however experienced -- is the suppository of all wisdom"

    Sixty years. One sexagenary cycle complete, a new adventure awaits.
    shadowmouse, previously bungeebungee

  10. #1150
    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmouse View Post
    @Skulltaker While the 40-70% prediction is getting a lot of talk, such articles as I can find are mighty thin on how he arrives at that figure (and that's one hell of a range). Even this site -- https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hs...e-coronavirus/ -- says only:



    I'd prefer not to have one more thing to kill me, but so far this year's flu still seems way out front.

    @ Muajin76 Expect your local community to hit you with new paperwork. It is mainly the usual stuff, but there are now sections asking when you last entered the country and what countries you passed through in the last two weeks.

    And hey, at least it is good news for Miss Piggy, she and Kermit may just have some odd threesomes.
    We already have people not showing symptoms, though. It's quite common with many viral diseases. You have a ~15% Chance of having the flu and not showing symptoms. The note you quoted doesn't contradict him at all, it just puts things into perspective. And yes, it is one hell of a range, that is simply due to the fact that there are still many factors that are either unclear or completely unknown.

    And this thing about the flu being ahead, please stop saying stuff like that. It isn't a competition. just because one is objectively worse doesn't mean you shouldn't have your eyes on the other. Just because more people are killed by hippos shouldn't mean you should disregard the alligators.

  11. #1151
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    Its not exactly surprising that a new disease with a high mortality rate (WHO has it at 3.4% currently) gets more attention then a disease we've all come to live with that has a lower mortality rate but is more wide spread. We've come to accept that the flu is a fact of live. This is new and pretty dangerous, it was always going to grab headlines..

  12. #1152
    Quote Originally Posted by Up The Gary View Post
    Media isn't helping the situation at all with all the scaremongering, it's no worse than Flu outbreaks that happen multiple times a year but you don't see the media reporting on those cases...
    Hmm, because of a simple flu the factory we work with is closed and my 40 HQ container of raw silicone is not shipped.
    China must have a great plan while ruining their own economy. Oh i see now..they won't sell to me so I won't have anything to sell and bankrupt.
    Got 3/3 Improved Blizzard but they still fail.

  13. #1153
    Quote Originally Posted by sabe View Post
    https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance...waa036/5775463

    Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S).

    This is going bad. Mutation lessens my hopes for a cure.
    This is also entirely unsurprising - ssRNA viruses are pretty much always going to have low copy fidelity and tend towards high antigenic variation as a result. Once you have any decent sized infected population that can't be quarantined, you can pretty safely bet that you're going to wind up with enough antigenic variation that vaccination won't be trivial. That said, there may be highly conserved antigens that are useful for vaccination or the virus may be amenable to multivalent approaches.

  14. #1154
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skulltaker
    And this thing about the flu being ahead, please stop saying stuff like that. It isn't a competition. just because one is objectively worse doesn't mean you shouldn't have your eyes on the other. Just because more people are killed by hippos shouldn't mean you should disregard the alligators.
    I think you've mistaken my position on this. I haven't tried to contradict him, I'd simply like things kept in perspective. As far as those alligators, I agree with you but I see it differently it would seem.

    From my point of view though, COVID-19 is the distraction for a bad flu year with a vaccine that seems less than great. I'd rather not have one more thing to die from, but I'd also like the damned CDC to get its thumb out of its ass and get serious about something that they can't even nail down within 30 thousand flipping deaths. We knew flu season was coming, we watched the deaths start mounting, and yet we went into it unprepared even for flu (but we can build a Wall!). COVID-19 has to be portrayed as a huge, novel threat, otherwise the system would have to admit that we knew tens of thousands were going to die while pretty much zero fucks were given.

    We should have been better prepared, but things like panic buying are a clear sign that people didn't pay real attention to the flu. We were going to leave social problems and program funding unaddressed as long as people could point and say that the US was safe from COVID-19 because that was the easy path. Why wasn't Pence flu czar before COVID-19 ever became a problem? We're at what could be (given CDC's lack of sound numbers) 50,000 deaths and I don't think they should have been written off as acceptable casualties. But they were. That needs to stop. People do need to get serious about both, and about things like a culture that encourages people to come in to work when they are sick even though it is known to cause businesses to lose money.

    To borrow your analogy, yep, them be gators out there and they look dangerous ... but stop planning on how big a gun you need to kill gators; wake the hell up, and get your hand out of that hippo's mouth!
    "No one -- however smart, however well-educated, however experienced -- is the suppository of all wisdom"

    Sixty years. One sexagenary cycle complete, a new adventure awaits.
    shadowmouse, previously bungeebungee

  15. #1155
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectral View Post
    This is also entirely unsurprising - ssRNA viruses are pretty much always going to have low copy fidelity and tend towards high antigenic variation as a result. Once you have any decent sized infected population that can't be quarantined, you can pretty safely bet that you're going to wind up with enough antigenic variation that vaccination won't be trivial. That said, there may be highly conserved antigens that are useful for vaccination or the virus may be amenable to multivalent approaches.
    Just please tell me the end is here
    Got 3/3 Improved Blizzard but they still fail.

  16. #1156
    Quote Originally Posted by sabe View Post
    Just please tell me the end is here
    I legitimally wonder if the nihilistic views of the current generation (which aren't unwarranted) are also playing a role in this outbreak. If just a few people all over the world choose not to do their job properly, they can greatly increase the spread of the virus.


  17. #1157
    *Worries about COVID-19, doesn't get flu shot*

  18. #1158
    Stood in the Fire AkundaMrdal's Avatar
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    So how are you preparing for an apocalypse? I bought dumbbells and I'm working out to get as fit and strong as possible before economic and societal collapse. You will have to defend yourself against hordes of starving city people, trying to steal your food. Also never tell people about your prepper stash, it would make you a target.

  19. #1159
    Quote Originally Posted by Poe View Post
    More like catch the coronavirus and go to work anyways.

    When I get flu-like illnesses, I don't even go to a doctor, I wash down some ibuprofen and a cough suppressant and suck it up and push through the day. If I got the coronavirus, I'd probably just think it was the flu and I wouldn't even go to a doctor,
    Doing that every time you are sick will take a lot of time off your life, if I am sick I don't work period no matter where I work since it is more detrimental to large business to go in sick and infect others than it is to pay that person to be home.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AkundaMrdal View Post
    So how are you preparing for an apocalypse? I bought dumbbells and I'm working out to get as fit and strong as possible before economic and societal collapse. You will have to defend yourself against hordes of starving city people, trying to steal your food. Also never tell people about your prepper stash, it would make you a target.
    This is why Canada rocks, low population and tons of fresh water for fishing/drinking and tons of land for hunting, easy peasy to survive here.
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    - let's get real everyone, classic needs #somechanges get over it.

  20. #1160
    Quote Originally Posted by Unholyground View Post
    it is more detrimental to large business to go in sick and infect others than it is to pay that person to be home.
    Haha I actually work for a large business but if I’m not going to work, I’m not getting paid.

    So if I get sick, I’m going to work. I’ll try to keep my hands clean and keep my coughs suppressed but if everyone else gets sick, it’s not my fault.
    "I feel bad for Limit , they put in so many hours only to come in second place" - Methodjosh

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