1. #13201
    Merely a Setback PACOX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    So much contradicting information these days

    in 1report you hear 20% of new york has it so the mortality rate is 0.5%, and 1% for people below 40, and i start thinking oh ok maybe its not that bad for me ( as a young person i am still worried about the 1% even)
    then in another article i hear this
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...illing-us.html
    "ne month ago, as the country went into lockdown to prepare for the first wave of coronavirus cases, many doctors felt confident that they knew what they were dealing with. Based on early reports, covid-19 appeared to be a standard variety respiratory virus, albeit a very contagious and lethal one with no vaccine and no treatment. But they’ve since become increasingly convinced that covid-19 attacks not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, heart, intestines, liver and brain."
    [IM]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWIkbZMWsAAUKuG?format=png&name=900x900[/IMG]
    So ima be social distancing long after governers end the stay at home orders- til we know for sure whats going on, but i guess thats a privilage for me that the working man dosent have, but i do fall on the we should urge on the more cautious side of things. Which is why if we do have extended stay at home orders or have to go back in the fall possible no clear answer on that, there should be some form of UBI
    Cant be old. Can't be too healthy. Have to somewhere in the middle with good lungs and/or an okay enough heart.

    Old people bodies quit. Healthy young people stroke out go experience renal failure (or something adjacent). People in the middle seem to be mostly at risk of secondary pneumonia - treatable if expected.

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  2. #13202
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zantos View Post
    Not really. They lied about the severity. While they did do some lockdowns, they said it was A) under control and B) not that bad. Since no one else had it, their info is all we had to go on.
    US and Western Europe had intelligence assets in China that knew in December. Satellite imagery showing Chinese Military medical supplies being amassed around Wuhan. The US knew just as soon as China, we just have a piece of shit incompetent president who didn't want to screw up his political rally schedule. So now 55,000 Americans are dead.
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  3. #13203
    Merely a Setback PACOX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zantos View Post
    Apparently not even Trump controls those. Regardless of what we should do, we can only react to the information given. If we are told its not bad, then we don't have the ability to force people to start preparing. Its much harder to say " all travel is banned" when the 1 country that is infected is like "nah man, we're cool. This isn't even all that bad, really!"
    China canceled New Years. That's like the US canceling Thanksgiving. That was enough of a red flag. We could have also not have gutted the CDC and paid attention to our allies (Japan and SK). The US was too worried about making money and playing politics in January.

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  4. #13204
    The Unstoppable Force Orange Joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    10% is actually kind of high. Just saying.
    absolute worst
    I'm severely overstating the chance
    I feel like you are ignoring some very clearly stated points.
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  5. #13205
    Merely a Setback PACOX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orange Joe View Post
    I feel like you are ignoring some very clearly stated points.
    Didn't see the follow up until after I pressed reply. All good.

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  6. #13206
    Pit Lord Magical Mudcrab's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orange Joe View Post
    Yes, you are correct. I had my answer off by a decimal point. Even at 7% my point still stands.

    This is what I get for doing head math after a long day.
    I would say that the actual mortality rate is probably significantly lower than 7~%, given lack of testing in some countries (such as the US) and that the majority of people who become infected show either mild or no symptoms, with some outlets saying that upwards of 50~% of people infected with COVID do not know they have the virus and remain asymptomatic. Whether that makes the virus more or less scary is up to the individual, but it does indicate that mortality rates are being massively skewed by testing and does not represent the whole picture. That is to say, comparing deaths vs. the number of cases isn't very helpful as the way we are determining cases is implicitly biased; it's ignoring the large asymptomatic populations, and populations with mild symptoms, because most countries are reserving the limited testing kits for people showing symptoms.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Daelak View Post
    US and Western Europe had intelligence assets in China that knew in December. Satellite imagery showing Chinese Military medical supplies being amassed around Wuhan. The US knew just as soon as China, we just have a piece of shit incompetent president who didn't want to screw up his political rally schedule. So now 55,000 Americans are dead.
    China knew since at least early December, with there being some evidence that they knew in November. I believe that US intelligence briefed the executive and some senators about the risk mid-late January. I don't disagree that the US response was really unacceptably bad, but the US didn't have a full picture until later in the timeline. There is still plenty of blame to be put on China, especially given their ongoing disinformation campaign and attempts to re-write history by stating that COVID originated in the US and was spread by the US military, but obviously they don't deserve all of the blame for the US' domestic response.

    There will, however, need to be discussions about China's role in the world post-COVID. Their response to the pandemic has shown they aren't able to be trusted on the world stage by their attempted cover-up of the pandemic and subsequent lying about it (incl. means of transmission, origin, etc.). Though this obviously won't be a unilateral thing, and will require most of the world (incl. hostile powers like Russia and Iran) to discuss how to deal with this. Some people may disagree with harsh retaliation post-COVID, but China will do this again if they know they can get away with it without consequence.
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  7. #13207
    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    So much contradicting information these days

    in 1report you hear 20% of new york has it so the mortality rate is 0.5%, and 1% for people below 40, and i start thinking oh ok maybe its not that bad for me ( as a young person i am still worried about the 1% even)
    then in another article i hear this
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...illing-us.html
    "ne month ago, as the country went into lockdown to prepare for the first wave of coronavirus cases, many doctors felt confident that they knew what they were dealing with. Based on early reports, covid-19 appeared to be a standard variety respiratory virus, albeit a very contagious and lethal one with no vaccine and no treatment. But they’ve since become increasingly convinced that covid-19 attacks not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, heart, intestines, liver and brain."

    "And the disparate impacts were significant ones: Heart damage was discovered in 20 percent of patients hospitalized in Wuhan, where 44 percent of those in ICU exhibited arrhythmias; 38 percent of Dutch ICU patients had irregular blood clotting; 27 percent of Wuhan patients had kidney failure, with many more showing signs of kidney damage; half of Chinese patients showed signs of liver damage; and, depending on the study, between 20 percent and 50 percent of patients had diarrhea."

    its not just pure deaths we should be worrying about but also possibly long term side effects of having the disease @Orange Joe
    So ima be social distancing long after governers end the stay at home orders- til we know for sure whats going on, but i guess thats a privilage for me that the working man dosent have, but i do fall on the we should urge on the more cautious side of things. Which is why if we do have extended stay at home orders or have to go back in the fall possible no clear answer on that, there should be some form of UBI
    This is not news, CRS was proposed as one of the main causes of COVID deaths since the beginning.
    But in order to have damaged organs you would have to have a severe case requiring ICU hospitalization.
    Can it happen? Sure. But it is very unlikely.

  8. #13208
    The last few days have seen 8, 18, 20, 17 and 8 new cases in Australia. Of the 6700 or so cases, almost 5600 have recovered and there are only a little over 1000 case active currently. Some states/territories haven't seen a new case in days, and if that keeps up for a little while longer and all current cases recover then it would be safe to say that they are clean.

    In other news, the Australian government suggested that when this was all over that there should be an international inquiry into the origins and response to the virus. No countries were named and it was suggested that it would be an international effort. China immediately came out and threatened economic retaliation on Australia, boycotting goods and services, banning tourists and students and so on. Maybe not the best move given how many millions of Chinese Australia feeds and how their factories are fueled by Australian iron and coal.

  9. #13209
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    The last few days have seen 8, 18, 20, 17 and 8 new cases in Australia. Of the 6700 or so cases, almost 5600 have recovered and there are only a little over 1000 case active currently. Some states/territories haven't seen a new case in days, and if that keeps up for a little while longer and all current cases recover then it would be safe to say that they are clean.

    In other news, the Australian government suggested that when this was all over that there should be an international inquiry into the origins and response to the virus. No countries were named and it was suggested that it would be an international effort. China immediately came out and threatened economic retaliation on Australia, boycotting goods and services, banning tourists and students and so on. Maybe not the best move given how many millions of Chinese Australia feeds and how their factories are fueled by Australian iron and coal.
    Uhm... does China really think banning tourists is a threat? That’s some shitty optics, if true.

    Oh and good job Australia! You guys rock!
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  10. #13210
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    Uhm... does China really think banning tourists is a threat? That’s some shitty optics, if true.

    Oh and good job Australia! You guys rock!
    As in banning Chinese tourists coming to Australia. The Chinese make up the largest contingent of tourist that come to Australia and account for a quarter of all tourist dollars. Likewise the Australian university sector would suffer serious economic problems if Chinese students stopped coming. Australia's economy is so heavily dependent on China that if they followed through it could possibly crash the economy.

  11. #13211
    People should stop underestimating China, they are really not too far off replacing the USA as the dominant superpower. And, economically speaking, Australia needs China WAY more than China needs Australia.

  12. #13212
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calfredd View Post
    Hopefully this is trusted: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    So world total infected: 3,059,298
    Deaths: 211,219 (6%)
    Recovered: 919,812 (30%)
    Total infected we TESTED and confirmed.
    You can take that number and multiply it x8-10.

    So in reality, the mortality rate is about 1-2%. And that is across all age groups, mortality is even lower in younger groups unless you have severe preexisting conditions and provided your countries healthcare isn't overwhelmed.

  13. #13213
    Fluffy Kitten Remilia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    As in banning Chinese tourists coming to Australia. The Chinese make up the largest contingent of tourist that come to Australia and account for a quarter of all tourist dollars. Likewise the Australian university sector would suffer serious economic problems if Chinese students stopped coming. Australia's economy is so heavily dependent on China that if they followed through it could possibly crash the economy.
    Eh, it'll be fine. Taiwan got the same treatment and in two years iirc it came back to similar levels as before without Chinese tourists.

  14. #13214
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    It has taken 200k+ lives, is incurable, destroyed economies, inspired xenophobia and hatred, and may even be a catalyst for a war considering China’s propaganda campaign that has offended everyone else in the planet.

    So it might legitimately be a civilization ending catalyst. The epidemic has already inspired a wave of cyber terrorism against China
    Nonsense, see above.
    Yes, economy will be a bit down, yes a few peeps are going to die and we will have to re-define our normality for a while.
    This thing is a far cry of being a "civilization ending catalyst".

    I know people are horrified but we have billions of critters running around on this ball'o'mud.
    Losing a few million won't make a dent in our population numbers in the long run.

    SARS-CoV-2 is just a setback.

  15. #13215
    The Unstoppable Force Puupi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i've said i'd like to have one of those bad dragon dildos shaped like a horse, because the shape is nicer than human.
    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i was talking about horse cock again, told him to look at your sig.

  16. #13216
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    As for mortality rate of the virus, it is not the virus that kills most it is the immune system of the body that goes in overdrive.

  17. #13217
    Certain groups of people would always call the death % 'no big deal' until it kills someone they actually care about. Doesn't matter if it's 1% or 10%. Assuming they care about anyone other than themselves.

    Same goes for total death count. This could kill tens of millions and they still would just make excuses for the incompetence of the people they choose to follow.

  18. #13218
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    As for mortality rate of the virus, it is not the virus that kills most it is the immune system of the body that goes in overdrive.
    Im not a doctor, but would that mean the virus actually attacks the limits of the immune system? is there a way to have limits/protect ACE2 receptors from overdriving?

  19. #13219
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuiking View Post
    Im not a doctor, but would that mean the virus actually attacks the limits of the immune system? is there a way to have limits/protect ACE2 receptors from overdriving?
    Not so much the limits of it, it simply overreacts causes lungs to fill up with fluid and so forth.

    Recent video in dutch about this here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_pENe4u7VE

    And i don't believe there is, as you can't really control your immune system. I mean from personal experience with your immune system attacking your lungs all you can take are cortisones to suppress it but that's not something you want to do i imagine when fighting of a virus.

  20. #13220
    Merely a Setback PACOX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuiking View Post
    Im not a doctor, but would that mean the virus actually attacks the limits of the immune system? is there a way to have limits/protect ACE2 receptors from overdriving?
    ACE2 inhibitors exist. They are a common way to treat hypertension among other ailments.

    Theoretically speaking, some researchers think drugs that act on the receptors might actually inhibit COVID19 from infecting the bodies. Others speculate that the body might simply produce more ACE2 receptors, the opposite of what you'd want.

    There's also potential therapies that are bind excessive ACE2 receptors in combination with inhibitors. So there will be less receptors for the virus to bind to, those that the inhibitor haven't suppressed are 'occupied'.
    Last edited by PACOX; 2020-04-28 at 09:32 AM.

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