1. #13961
    The Unstoppable Force Bakis's Avatar
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    How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?

    In depths analysis. NYT but should be viewable by non-subscribers too since they made Corona-content free.
    Fox News Media is proud of our 2020 election coverage, which stands in the highest tradition of American journalism, and we will vigorously defend against this baseless lawsuit in court," the media company said in its response.
    Equally outrageously hilarious as sad

  2. #13962
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Eeh actually the daily cases peaked at 7K, were down to 1.2K and are now back up to down to 1.4K.
    That's a ratio of 6, not 3. Did you even look at the numbers before posting?
    Yes.

    That's why I wrote that it was down by ratio of 3 compared to the average - not to the peak; because it's the current value compared to the average that matters for determining how much longer it will take with the current value compared to what happened in the previous 1.5months (because to look at that you look at the average during that time - not to the peak).

  3. #13963
    The Unstoppable Force Bakis's Avatar
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    ROFL

    Fox News Media is proud of our 2020 election coverage, which stands in the highest tradition of American journalism, and we will vigorously defend against this baseless lawsuit in court," the media company said in its response.
    Equally outrageously hilarious as sad

  4. #13964
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    That's why I wrote that it was down by ratio of 3 compared to the average - not to the peak; because it's the current value compared to the average that matters for determining how much longer it will take with the current value compared to what happened in the previous 1.5months (because to look at that you look at the average during that time - not to the peak).
    Yeah my bad, glanced over the word "average" sorry.

    I don't think that's a viable approach though.
    Our leaders aim to keep the value at the CURRENT levels not at the average levels including the peak. They stated that we barely have any wiggle room left. Certainly not a factor of 3.

    But even w/o taking the daily case number (since we don't know how accurate it is): we needed 2 months to reach ~1%. We still need around 69% to reach 70%.
    69 / 2 = 34,5 months. That's almost 3 years and that includes the higher infection rate during the peak (which we're trying to avoid).

    Suffice it to say, no matter how you slice it: heard immunity is not quickly achieved.

  5. #13965
    The Unstoppable Force Puupi's Avatar
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    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

    Excess death data from CDC.

    33k excess deaths in addition to verified COVID-19 cases.

    The real number of covid deaths might be nearly 100k in the US already.....
    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i've said i'd like to have one of those bad dragon dildos shaped like a horse, because the shape is nicer than human.
    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i was talking about horse cock again, told him to look at your sig.

  6. #13966
    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    How does the swedish model prevent a second wave?
    By never having the first wave end?

    #bigbrain
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  7. #13967
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bakis View Post
    How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?

    In depths analysis. NYT but should be viewable by non-subscribers too since they made Corona-content free.
    Take note that in Oxford they are working on a vaccine that is based of one they developed for SARS before but as it went away quickly they never developed it further, so there's a basis to start from. I believe they are working with Inovio.

    I am convinced that they know what they are doing as nobody wants to release a vaccine that makes things worse but reducing the time so significantly has got me worried.

    Hopefully all this work won't be for nothing if we notice that a vaccine only gives us temporary immunity against a specific strain like the flu.

  8. #13968
    Pit Lord Tuor's Avatar
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    So, i just noticed something funny. Falkland Islands had their last detected case at 25th of April, but the territory is claiming that all people have recovered from infection, you can check data at worldmeters
    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ands-malvinas/

    So, does anyone know if they doing the same for the UK? That is a really weird policy for declaring recovery, a recovery can take up to 3 weeks, declaring one under 5 days is totally unplausable.


  9. #13969
    Quote Originally Posted by Puupi View Post
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

    Excess death data from CDC.

    33k excess deaths in addition to verified COVID-19 cases.
    Technically they don't know they have 33k excess deaths in addition to covid-19, they have only predicted that based on the normal delay in reporting - and how complete the reports are so far. That delay in reporting is long - they even believe there are almost 2k deaths from the first week of January that are still not reported.

    Without the weighted predictions the excess deaths (including covid-19) are almost gone.

    Obviously the predictions for the delayed reporting are needed; it's just that we don't know how accurate they are. I cannot exclude the possibility that the underreporting is less severe than CDC predicts - but I find it much more likely that there is additional underreporting since it would make sense that more deaths lead to more delays; and the predictions for the 2nd half of April seem way off; so it may be there are already 40k or more excess deaths.

  10. #13970
    The Unstoppable Force Bakis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Take note that in Oxford they are working on a vaccine that is based of one they developed for SARS before but as it went away quickly they never developed it further, so there's a basis to start from. I believe they are working with Inovio.

    I am convinced that they know what they are doing as nobody wants to release a vaccine that makes things worse but reducing the time so significantly has got me worried.

    Hopefully all this work won't be for nothing if we notice that a vaccine only gives us temporary immunity against a specific strain like the flu.
    Time will tell, it will also tell if it will keep not mutating or if it will.
    Fox News Media is proud of our 2020 election coverage, which stands in the highest tradition of American journalism, and we will vigorously defend against this baseless lawsuit in court," the media company said in its response.
    Equally outrageously hilarious as sad

  11. #13971
    Quote Originally Posted by Bakis View Post
    ROFL

    Blizzard take note, we want this helm in Shadowlands!

  12. #13972
    Remember when everyone called my stupid, dumb and a conspiracy theorist when i posted that video saying Corona may have come from a lab (not fabricated but leaked)?

    So today i see on the news Donald Trump saying exactly what i said.

    This is my "GOTCHA MOMENT"

    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

    Take that Eat your own words.

  13. #13973
    Pit Lord Tuor's Avatar
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    Foda-se

    On-topic:
    Today my country just came over 1000 deaths, 1007 to be precise, +18 more then yeastherday. The number of new daily cases also came down.


  14. #13974
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    Foda-se
    Foda-se indeed.

    This my gotcha moment for @Machismo and @Kallisto

    They called me stupid...therefore they are calling donal trump stupid and a conspiracy theorist.

  15. #13975
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Foda-se indeed.

    This my gotcha moment for @Machismo and @Kallisto

    They called me stupid...therefore they are calling donal trump stupid and a conspiracy theorist.
    Yep, he is stupid, and he is pushing a conspiracy theory. Even the Intelligence Community disagrees. Hell, even his lapdog disagreed with him.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-c...-intelligence/
    Quote Originally Posted by Knadra View Post
    Multiculturalism hurts and kills. This happened before Trump and it would be happening without him. Racism arises from a multicultural society. If we were monocultural, people would not see issues through the lens of race.
    This is a poster saying that people are at fault for being the victims of terrorism, because they are not white.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wilfire View Post
    I hate personal freedom because people abuse it like a shiny new toy.

  16. #13976
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    Yep, he is stupid, and he is pushing a conspiracy theory. Even the Intelligence Community disagrees. Hell, even his lapdog disagreed with him.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-c...-intelligence/
    Ok then we agree on something even though it means sacrificing myself (>_<)

  17. #13977
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Remember when everyone called my stupid, dumb and a conspiracy theorist when i posted that video saying Corona may have come from a lab (not fabricated but leaked)?

    So today i see on the news Donald Trump saying exactly what i said.

    This is my "GOTCHA MOMENT"

    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

    Take that Eat your own words.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Foda-se indeed.

    This my gotcha moment for @Machismo and @Kallisto

    They called me stupid...therefore they are calling donal trump stupid and a conspiracy theorist.
    Donald Trump is stupid, borderline retarded, he has something like 10.000 documented lies that he told just during his presidency, he's known to spread conspicracy theories and outright lies, and if you think you have a Gotcha moment by having him agree with you, chances are everyone with half a functioning brain in the world is either laughing at you, or pitying you. Or a little of both.

  18. #13978
    Anyone have any thoughts on how bad the spike is going to be now that about half the states have hit the "everything back to normal minus only half the people in restaurants" thing has gone into effect?

  19. #13979
    Quote Originally Posted by Skulltaker View Post
    Donald Trump is stupid, borderline retarded, he has something like 10.000 documented lies that he told just during his presidency, he's known to spread conspicracy theories and outright lies, and if you think you have a Gotcha moment by having him agree with you, chances are everyone with half a functioning brain in the world is either laughing at you, or pitying you. Or a little of both.
    I mean, it could technically be true that the virus escaped from the lab, but it would have had to have mutated into a different strain naturally on the premises. We know that it was not created by humans, that has been made very clear. It would still then require proof that the first person to get the virus worked with bats at the lab, bats at the lab tested positive for Covid-19 before the outbreak, or that a bat with that known virus managed to escape... and infect the first person to have gotten it. Unless they have audio of the Chinese Government stating this, then it would be nearly impossible to prove. Not only that, since it is a naturally-occurring strain, it is also irrelevant, because the very same thing can literally happen anywhere. Do I trust China to tell the truth? Absolutely not. But, at the end of the day, it doesn't much matter.

    What I'm not going to buy, is a random YouTube video that pushes it. My skepticism around YouTube videos is quite high, you can thank all the 9/11 Truthers for that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Knadra View Post
    Multiculturalism hurts and kills. This happened before Trump and it would be happening without him. Racism arises from a multicultural society. If we were monocultural, people would not see issues through the lens of race.
    This is a poster saying that people are at fault for being the victims of terrorism, because they are not white.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wilfire View Post
    I hate personal freedom because people abuse it like a shiny new toy.

  20. #13980
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.
    I-is that really the hill you want to die on? Alongside, President "inject Clorox into your veins"?

    I mean.

    If you want.

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