1. #14141
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bakis View Post
    How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?

    In depths analysis. NYT but should be viewable by non-subscribers too since they made Corona-content free.
    Take note that in Oxford they are working on a vaccine that is based of one they developed for SARS before but as it went away quickly they never developed it further, so there's a basis to start from. I believe they are working with Inovio.

    I am convinced that they know what they are doing as nobody wants to release a vaccine that makes things worse but reducing the time so significantly has got me worried.

    Hopefully all this work won't be for nothing if we notice that a vaccine only gives us temporary immunity against a specific strain like the flu.

  2. #14142
    Warchief Tuor's Avatar
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    So, i just noticed something funny. Falkland Islands had their last detected case at 25th of April, but the territory is claiming that all people have recovered from infection, you can check data at worldmeters
    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ands-malvinas/

    So, does anyone know if they doing the same for the UK? That is a really weird policy for declaring recovery, a recovery can take up to 3 weeks, declaring one under 5 days is totally unplausable.

  3. #14143
    Quote Originally Posted by Puupi View Post
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

    Excess death data from CDC.

    33k excess deaths in addition to verified COVID-19 cases.
    Technically they don't know they have 33k excess deaths in addition to covid-19, they have only predicted that based on the normal delay in reporting - and how complete the reports are so far. That delay in reporting is long - they even believe there are almost 2k deaths from the first week of January that are still not reported.

    Without the weighted predictions the excess deaths (including covid-19) are almost gone.

    Obviously the predictions for the delayed reporting are needed; it's just that we don't know how accurate they are. I cannot exclude the possibility that the underreporting is less severe than CDC predicts - but I find it much more likely that there is additional underreporting since it would make sense that more deaths lead to more delays; and the predictions for the 2nd half of April seem way off; so it may be there are already 40k or more excess deaths.

  4. #14144
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Take note that in Oxford they are working on a vaccine that is based of one they developed for SARS before but as it went away quickly they never developed it further, so there's a basis to start from. I believe they are working with Inovio.

    I am convinced that they know what they are doing as nobody wants to release a vaccine that makes things worse but reducing the time so significantly has got me worried.

    Hopefully all this work won't be for nothing if we notice that a vaccine only gives us temporary immunity against a specific strain like the flu.
    Time will tell, it will also tell if it will keep not mutating or if it will.
    Killing alliance APES all day on Gehennas

  5. #14145
    Quote Originally Posted by Bakis View Post
    ROFL

    Blizzard take note, we want this helm in Shadowlands!

  6. #14146
    Remember when everyone called my stupid, dumb and a conspiracy theorist when i posted that video saying Corona may have come from a lab (not fabricated but leaked)?

    So today i see on the news Donald Trump saying exactly what i said.

    This is my "GOTCHA MOMENT"

    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

    Take that Eat your own words.

  7. #14147
    Warchief Tuor's Avatar
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    Foda-se

    On-topic:
    Today my country just came over 1000 deaths, 1007 to be precise, +18 more then yeastherday. The number of new daily cases also came down.

  8. #14148
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    Foda-se
    Foda-se indeed.

    This my gotcha moment for @Machismo and @Kallisto

    They called me stupid...therefore they are calling donal trump stupid and a conspiracy theorist.

  9. #14149
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Foda-se indeed.

    This my gotcha moment for @Machismo and @Kallisto

    They called me stupid...therefore they are calling donal trump stupid and a conspiracy theorist.
    Yep, he is stupid, and he is pushing a conspiracy theory. Even the Intelligence Community disagrees. Hell, even his lapdog disagreed with him.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-c...-intelligence/
    Quote Originally Posted by Knadra View Post
    Multiculturalism hurts and kills. This happened before Trump and it would be happening without him. Racism arises from a multicultural society. If we were monocultural, people would not see issues through the lens of race.
    This is a poster saying that people are at fault for being the victims of terrorism, because they are not white.

  10. #14150
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    Yep, he is stupid, and he is pushing a conspiracy theory. Even the Intelligence Community disagrees. Hell, even his lapdog disagreed with him.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-c...-intelligence/
    Ok then we agree on something even though it means sacrificing myself (>_<)

  11. #14151
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Remember when everyone called my stupid, dumb and a conspiracy theorist when i posted that video saying Corona may have come from a lab (not fabricated but leaked)?

    So today i see on the news Donald Trump saying exactly what i said.

    This is my "GOTCHA MOMENT"

    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

    Take that Eat your own words.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Foda-se indeed.

    This my gotcha moment for @Machismo and @Kallisto

    They called me stupid...therefore they are calling donal trump stupid and a conspiracy theorist.
    Donald Trump is stupid, borderline retarded, he has something like 10.000 documented lies that he told just during his presidency, he's known to spread conspicracy theories and outright lies, and if you think you have a Gotcha moment by having him agree with you, chances are everyone with half a functioning brain in the world is either laughing at you, or pitying you. Or a little of both.

  12. #14152
    Anyone have any thoughts on how bad the spike is going to be now that about half the states have hit the "everything back to normal minus only half the people in restaurants" thing has gone into effect?

  13. #14153
    Quote Originally Posted by Skulltaker View Post
    Donald Trump is stupid, borderline retarded, he has something like 10.000 documented lies that he told just during his presidency, he's known to spread conspicracy theories and outright lies, and if you think you have a Gotcha moment by having him agree with you, chances are everyone with half a functioning brain in the world is either laughing at you, or pitying you. Or a little of both.
    I mean, it could technically be true that the virus escaped from the lab, but it would have had to have mutated into a different strain naturally on the premises. We know that it was not created by humans, that has been made very clear. It would still then require proof that the first person to get the virus worked with bats at the lab, bats at the lab tested positive for Covid-19 before the outbreak, or that a bat with that known virus managed to escape... and infect the first person to have gotten it. Unless they have audio of the Chinese Government stating this, then it would be nearly impossible to prove. Not only that, since it is a naturally-occurring strain, it is also irrelevant, because the very same thing can literally happen anywhere. Do I trust China to tell the truth? Absolutely not. But, at the end of the day, it doesn't much matter.

    What I'm not going to buy, is a random YouTube video that pushes it. My skepticism around YouTube videos is quite high, you can thank all the 9/11 Truthers for that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Knadra View Post
    Multiculturalism hurts and kills. This happened before Trump and it would be happening without him. Racism arises from a multicultural society. If we were monocultural, people would not see issues through the lens of race.
    This is a poster saying that people are at fault for being the victims of terrorism, because they are not white.

  14. #14154
    The Insane Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.
    I-is that really the hill you want to die on? Alongside, President "inject Clorox into your veins"?

    I mean.

    If you want.

  15. #14155
    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    I-is that really the hill you want to die on? Alongside, President "inject Clorox into your veins"?

    I mean.

    If you want.
    I died for a good cause At least we all agree on Donald Trump. A justifiable sacrifice

  16. #14156
    Herald of the Titans Cidzor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Low Hanging Fruit View Post
    Anyone have any thoughts on how bad the spike is going to be now that about half the states have hit the "everything back to normal minus only half the people in restaurants" thing has gone into effect?
    As someone who lives in Georgia (a state that took a while to lock anything down in the first place and has been aggressive about re-opening things as quickly as possible), I'm a little worried. But there's not much I can do about it except continue to be careful myself and see what happens.
    Quote Originally Posted by FelPlague View Post
    never dick crazy.
    unless they have tentacles and more then 2 eyes.

  17. #14157
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    Foda-se

    On-topic:
    Today my country just came over 1000 deaths, 1007 to be precise, +18 more then yeastherday. The number of new daily cases also came down.
    And you still live in there?

    Which country is that? only US has more than 1000 deaths.

  18. #14158
    Quote Originally Posted by Cidzor View Post
    As someone who lives in Georgia (a state that took a while to lock anything down in the first place and has been aggressive about re-opening things as quickly as possible), I'm a little worried. But there's not much I can do about it except continue to be careful myself and see what happens.
    Yeah, Texas here. Pretty much the same thing. Basically the only restriction is restaurants are like 50% capacity or something like that limit.

    Thankfully my job is just letting us work remotely for 2 more weeks minimal because we actually had a small outbreak at one of our offices. Kind of scared them. So I will have at least 2 more weeks to see if this thing is going to end up a disaster or not.

    Guess all we can do is try to stay safe and hope for the best. The solution to just about everything these days. Hope. Because nothing is bothering to really save you.

  19. #14159
    Merely a Setback breadisfunny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Remember when everyone called my stupid, dumb and a conspiracy theorist when i posted that video saying Corona may have come from a lab (not fabricated but leaked)?

    So today i see on the news Donald Trump saying exactly what i said.

    This is my "GOTCHA MOMENT"

    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

    Take that Eat your own words.
    are you seriously taking donald trump seriously?! at least now your posts make more sense.
    r.i.p. alleria. 1997-2017. blizzard ruined alleria forever. blizz assassinated alleria's character and appearance.
    i will never forgive you for this blizzard.

  20. #14160
    Quote Originally Posted by Low Hanging Fruit View Post
    Anyone have any thoughts on how bad the spike is going to be now that about half the states have hit the "everything back to normal minus only half the people in restaurants" thing has gone into effect?
    No one knows. Considering that rural areas of the US already have a fairly high number of infected people who can spread the virus around, it might be not very good.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/co...VkD?li=BBnb7Kz

    Title: Coronavirus outbreak spreading farther into rural America

    Excerpts:

    A new analysis by the Brookings Institute demographer William Frey shows the virus spreading to new areas in almost every state in the country. But its spread is now more concentrated in smaller towns, rural areas and exurban areas that had previously been untouched.
    But that ratio has changed as the virus has spread beyond city borders. In the last week, almost a third of the counties experiencing high prevalence for the first time are rural or smaller communities, while just a quarter are urban cores.

    The people living in these counties are 62 percent white, a shift from the end of March when counties with high prevalence were 48 percent white.

    Much of the growth in rural areas comes in places where people are forced into higher-density situations. Prisons and meat-packing plants have suffered outbreaks in recent days.
    Hotspots have emerged in places like Kansas, Michigan, Illinois and Indiana, while cases have increased in southern states like Virginia, Florida and Texas.
    On the one hand, Easter ceremonies did not seem to cause the spike I was expecting.

    On the other hand, it seems to have gotten the ball rolling, kind of like in volleyball with a player setting up the ball hitting it high into the air.
    The "everything back to normal" policies could very well be the spike, depending upon how many people actually get out and mingle.

    In Iowa, the virus first broke out in two epicenters, through a couple that had returned from a cruise in Egypt in an eastern county and in someone who had traveled from Europe through Chicago in a western county. Since then, the virus has marched through smaller counties where meat packing plants are substantial parts of local economies, said Christine Petersen, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa.
    Meat packing plants have taking a lot of the blame for the spread of the virus through rural communities. I wonder how much truth there is to this. I suspect a fair amount.

    "We're starting to see in these small Midwestern counties these bigger outbreaks happening, because they can't social distance and they are required to go to work," Petersen said. "A lot of those packing plants are close to the interstate, because that's a good way to get material goods."
    Political ramifications:

    The further spread of the virus into smaller communities also means it is beginning to affect more areas that President Trump won in 2016. Trump won more than two-thirds of the 901 counties that have reached high prevalence status since March 30.

    Those Trump counties are most significantly concentrated in southern red states, though there are a substantial number in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and Texas.
    Overall, this article pretty much mirrors my thoughts. No one knows what will really happen. Even after it happens, it's not clear we will get a good picture of what is going on. What seems to be happening is that as Louisiana gets a handle on the cases started by Mardi Gras, with a much smaller new case rate than in the past, other states find their rates increasing to compensate.

    A week or so ago, I predicted 60k deaths by the end of April and 100k by the end of May. The 60k happened, and I stand by my expectation of over 100k by the end of May.
    Last edited by Omega10; 2020-05-01 at 02:20 PM.

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