Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[szechuan]

Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps it is just me listening to more and more medical advocates who are beginning to agree with me and are saying.

No, Plenty of Doctors and Scientists are against how places are opening up, the Article is not even properly Peer Reviewed and should not be used to guide Clinical Practices.

An inconvenient truth that the lockdown was a waste of time for the Coronaphobics? I wish they were being guided by the science.

FFS
Most Governments are being guided by science.

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Because a country/state will explode before that happens.

It will also explode if Hospitals are full and there are too many people infected.

[Deja Thoris]

Why would he study countries with very little viral penetration? No point in going to the Arctic is there.



Governments panicked because they listened to a guy from Imperial with a history of over egging pandemics.

2002 he predicted 50,000 deaths from mad cow disease. Actual deaths 200.
2005 he predicted 200 million deaths from bird flu. Actual deaths 440.
2009 he predicted 65,000 deaths from swine flu. Actual deaths 457.

Instead of listening to him you might as well listen to me, or any old research associate studying molluscs or whatever.

They didn't have penetration because of the lockdown, duh.

Ever since you said if Brexit goes wrong you can move to France you've pretty much confirmed your opinions should carry no weight. I'm as likely to listen to a guy with his underpants on his head as I am to you.

[Zan15]

So we should accept the blood sacrifice you're demanding to boost The Economy?

Some of us care a hell of a lot more about our fellow man's health and welfare than we do about shareholder dividends and stock portfolio values.

Of course he does because it will be everyone else's "blood sacrifice".

99.9% of these protestors/solution worse than the cure folks, are people who don't have to care for the infected or don't have family members they want to keep safe.

I really wish I was a billionaire right now because I could shut these people down so fast.


"what do you do for a living and are you willing to work at a hospital for the next 6 months after reopening (we will pay you 25% more than your current salary to sweeten the pot)"

then see how long they last then change their stance on reopening so fast, that is for the tiny percentage of people that actually agree and show up.

[announced]

So we should accept the blood sacrifice you're demanding to boost The Economy?

Some of us care a hell of a lot more about our fellow man's health and welfare than we do about shareholder dividends and stock portfolio values.

Related to decision-making is the issue of being overly safe versus not safe enough. Sometimes, being as safe as one can be is worthless. A minor example: How many of us before driving our cars inspect the hydraulic brake system for damage? We’d be safer if we did, but most of us just assume everything is OK and get into our car and drive away. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that 40,000 Americans lose their lives each year because of highway fatalities. Virtually all those lives could be saved with a mandated 5 mph speed limit. Fortunately, we consider costs and rightfully conclude that saving those 40,000 lives aren’t worth the costs and inconvenience of a 5 mph mandate.

There’s a strictly health-related downside to the shutdown of the U.S. economy ignored by our leadership that has been argued by epidemiologist Dr. Knut Wittkowski, formerly the head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at Rockefeller University in New York City. Wittkowski argues that the lockdown prolongs the development of the “herd immunity,” which is our only weapon in “exterminating” the novel coronavirus — outside of a vaccine that’s going to optimistically take 18 months or more to produce. He says we should focus on shielding the elderly and people with comorbidities while allowing the young and healthy to associate with one another in order to build up immunities. Wittkowski says, “So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated.” Herd immunity, Wittkowski argues, would stop a “second wave” headed for the United States in the fall. Dr. David L. Katz, president of True Health Initiative and the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, shares Wittkowski’s vision. Writing in The New York Times, he argued that our fight against COVID-19 could be worse than the virus itself.

Basically this means we could lift the lockdown on almost everyone, aside from the elderly go free and we wouldn't much difference as long as we maintain social distancing and proper policies. There would be some additional cases but the acceptable risk is relatively low. It isn't feasible to wait 18 months for a potential vaccine that may or may not be effective.

[stevenho]

COVID was freely infecting people in France for 4 months before "lockdown measures" were introduced.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/h...ntl/index.html

Were they attributing the mass deaths to pneumonia during that time?

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They didn't have penetration because of the lockdown, duh.

So the countries without lockdown have their healthcare overrun and lots more deaths than the average for locked down countries?
Right?

[Shadowferal]

It will also explode if Hospitals are full and there are too many people infected.

And you think a lockdown for a year is a good idea?
Now this is what I'm talking about; Colorado man planning armed protest against state's coronavirus restrictions arrested for pipe bombs
Now this may be rare thing...but it's just a matter of time before it isn't.
And this is election year.

Damn good reason why the Cuomo (NY) is talking up reopening, and Wolf (PA) has opened up a couple of dozen counties already...And Murphy (NJ) is talking about the doing the same.

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"what do you do for a living and are you willing to work at a hospital for the next 6 months after reopening (we will pay you 25% more than your current salary to sweeten the pot)"
then see how long they last then change their stance on reopening so fast, that is for the tiny percentage of people that actually agree and show up.

*raises hand*
But I want more money. (food is going to be crazy expensive)
And I'll work without complaint...

[Draco-Onis]

Basically this means we could lift the lockdown on almost everyone, aside from the elderly go free and we wouldn't much difference as long as we maintain social distancing and proper policies. There would be some additional cases but the acceptable risk is relatively low. It isn't feasible to wait 18 months for a potential vaccine that may or may not be effective.

An opinion piece from the New York Times is irrelevant fact we don't know anything of yet for certain of this virus including immunity and how long it last. No one is saying wait 18 months for a vaccine, the point of flattening the curve is to make it so you don't have tons of patients at once and overwhelm the health care system. Last but not least proper policies are not in place in a lot of the country the parts which are now opening and causing spikes in cases.

[stevenho]

"what do you do for a living and are you willing to work at a hospital for the next 6 months after reopening (we will pay you 25% more than your current salary to sweeten the pot)"
then see how long they last then change their stance on reopening so fast, that is for the tiny percentage of people that actually agree and show up.

This side of EU a lot of the hospital staff got infected. Lots of them.
But almost none of them died, because they weren't 65-100 years old to have 10% chance of passing. And now they are working with antibodies in their systems and...
...
doing just fine.

Those hospitals are pretty much the worst places imaginable - no lockdown, people working together 24/7, just masks and disinfectans, and the virus around every corner.
Yet fatalities are extremely low. Italy has it higher at 100 people, but they did a weird thing of calling retired old personnel to help :O

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No one is saying wait 18 months for a vaccine, the point of flattening the curve is to make it so you don't have tons of patients at once and overwhelm the health care system

Curve has been flattened a month ago, hospitals were never overrun almost everywhere.

[announced]

An opinion piece from the New York Times is irrelevant fact we don't know anything of yet for certain of this virus including immunity and how long it last. No one is saying wait 18 months for a vaccine, the point of flattening the curve is to make it so you don't have tons of patients at once and overwhelm the health care system. Last but not least proper policies are not in place in a lot of the country the parts which are now opening and causing spikes in cases.

That piece was from epidemiologist Dr. Knut Wittkowski, an opinion shared by Dr. David L. Katz, president of True Health Initiative and the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center. Oddly enough I value medical experts opinions a lot more than some fear mongering talking heads on TV.

Even in New York Cuomo said there hasn't been a single failure due to a lack of medical supplies. They even sent away the USNS comfort due to not needing it.

Also in other news. South Korea admits 292 coronavirus 'reinfections' were false positives.

http://archive.vn/ClcBq

This implies you can't get it again.

[Tuor]

Damn good reason why the Cuomo (NY) is talking up reopening, and Wolf (PA) has opened up a couple of dozen counties already...And Murphy (NJ) is talking about the doing the same.

Looks to early for NY, they should try to reduce the spread first, by reducing the R0. And NJ its the same, its basicly the same metro area as NY, separated by a bridge.

[Endus]

Are you saying a country should be locked down for a year?
Because a country/state will explode before that happens.
Not about stock...but people...those that will live.

It's entirely about stock prices. That's the only reason to remove distancing requirements.

It isn't so people can live; you could provide greater social welfare to support those individuals instead.

It's solely so that big corporations and industries don't need to invest funds in adapting and reforming their business model to account for societal change.

What should be happening, here, is an overhaul of basic workplace presumptions, to build a new, 21st-century economy, rather than trying to shore up a model that was already falling apart in the 20th.

For instance; work-from-home. Maybe that should be standard for pretty much everyone who's been able to work from home during this pandemic; that's a change that does not need to be reversed. Letting those people stay home reduces needed investment in workplaces (you need less office space, for reduced on-site labor numbers), it reduces traffic significantly, and pretty much every study I've seen says it's been positive for productivity. Particularly as you cut out the commute times for those workers, so they have more time to focus on the actual work.

If you're trying to "get back to normal", rather than recognizing that the reason we're struggling is that the normal sucked ass, you're part of the problem and trying to prop up an objectively bad set of business models, which don't function well in a modern world. We all adapted to social distancing and such in a matter of months, it's time for business leaders to put on their fucking big-boy pants and make even a basic fucking effort to do the same, rather than bitching about their profit margins and trying to force staff back to work in unsafe, dangerous conditions. Because that shit demonstrates that they've but a clear price on human lives and suffering, and it's a really fuckin' low price, to them. They're misanthropes whose business relies on exploitation. Fuck them. People like that are why we invented the guillotine.

[PhaelixWW]

COVID was freely infecting people in France for 4 months before "lockdown measures" were introduced.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/h...ntl/index.html

Were they attributing the mass deaths to pneumonia during that time?

Do you even bother to think before you post shit?

There weren't any mass deaths in France during that time, which you'd know if you bothered to take two seconds to actual fact-check the shit that comes spewing out of your imagination.

The reality is that France didn't start experiencing deaths in excess of the norm until after the beginning of March. And then they started to decline about two weeks after the lockdown was initiated.

Fancy that, huh?



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South Korea admits 292 coronavirus 'reinfections' were false positives.

http://archive.vn/ClcBq

This implies you can't get it again.

That's not at all what that means. FFS.

[Shadowferal]

It's entirely about stock prices...

I'm not talking about distancing reqs...or removing masks...
I'm asking if a country can be locked down for a year?
If you think so...then you're not seriously considering the health of those who survive.
And they will vote this year in the US...and you should know that no US politician has ever hinted in the slightest of keeping the country/state locked down for such a timeframe.

[Grapemask]

To me it does.
I mean almost any positive news seems to garner condemnation from people that insist on everyone locked down no matter what happens. It's as if they relish the negative emotions, the deaths and suffering.

But this is implying that people are saying this in the face of a declining virus. We haven't really seen a sign that we've even hit the top of the curve. Good satire is when there's a foot rooted in reality. This is rooted entirely in fiction, and embracing the alternative reality of the people protesting lockdowns when we're still knee deep in shit.

[Endus]

An opinion piece from the New York Times is irrelevant fact we don't know anything of yet for certain of this virus including immunity and how long it last.

This is the really important bit.

Anyone making a case for "herd immunity" is talking out their asses. We don't know if herd immunity is possible. There is no firm data as of yet on whether we can develop any immunity at all after recovering from COVID-19 (early re-infection data suggests not, but it's unclear because it could just be shitty useless tests that don't work). And there's certainly no long-term data on how long that immunity lasts; influenza immunities are typically for about 6 months or so before they weaken and you can be re-infected by the same strain. https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp

SARS was a longer-lasting immunity; about 2 years; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

If it's closer to influenza's immunity range, herd immunity won't exist. There'll be a rolling population who are immune, but it'll keep floating around and re-infecting. Same reason influenza is always around. If it's closer to SARS', it's maybe possible, but we're not there yet. And letting everyone get infected will result in more fatalities, and more quickly. That's the problem with herd immunity; you need a significant chunk of the population to get sick, and some of them will not survive it. Particularly as this is a highly infectious illness, meaning you need a commensurately high percentage of the population with antibodies for herd immunity to exist; that percentage ties directly into infection rate. The vulnerable population here isn't that tiny a fraction; a lot of them will get this virus if everything is opened back up.

Presuming herd immunity is even possible with this novel coronavirus is magical thinking, at this point. It's not based on the known facts.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...985-5/fulltext

[Shadowferal]

Also in other news. South Korea admits 292 coronavirus 'reinfections' were false positives.
http://archive.vn/ClcBq
This implies you can't get it again.

hmm...

A clinical expert panel on Wednesday also concluded that recovered coronavirus patients who later test positive for the virus again were not “reactivated” or reinfected, but were false positives.

The head of the committee said the false positives were due to technical limits of PCR testing. The country has so far reported 292 such cases.

[Zan15]

This side of EU a lot of the hospital staff got infected. Lots of them.
But almost none of them died, because they weren't 65-100 years old to have 10% chance of passing. And now they are working with antibodies in their systems and...
...
doing just fine.

Those hospitals are pretty much the worst places imaginable - no lockdown, people working together 24/7, just masks and disinfectans, and the virus around every corner.
Yet fatalities are extremely low. Italy has it higher at 100 people, but they did a weird thing of calling retired old personnel to help :O

Curve has been flattened a month ago, hospitals were never overrun almost everywhere.

That's great for the "almost none of them", I am sure they are doing fine all in the ground and stuff.

I am sure with all your data you are looking at you have citations on the death rate of hospital staff then, feel free to share.

I mean there was only 15-20 so far in MI, with this massive lockdown.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...ha/3015602001/


So I guess you will be volunteering for hospital work since there is hardly any risk, right?
How many hours have you put in so far?

[Captain N]

That's great for the "almost none of them", I am sure they are doing fine all in the ground and stuff.

I am sure with all your data you are looking at you have citations on the death rate of hospital staff then, feel free to share.

I mean there was only 15-20 so far in MI, with this massive lockdown.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...ha/3015602001/


So I guess you will be volunteering for hospital work since there is hardly any risk, right?
How many hours have you put in so far?

Just as an added point to this -- My wife is a member of the NNU and every week she has a Zoom meeting discussing how they're going to handle the impending uptick in cases and deaths due to the reopening of certain states. At the end of those meetings is a vigil for all the healthcare workers lost that week due to COVID-19. It's becoming maddening to hear at least one nurse in every meeting in tears asking why people can't stay home...why they choose to jeopardize our lives because they're bored of staying in the house.

[Shadowferal]

Looks to early for NY, they should try to reduce the spread first, by reducing the R0. And NJ its the same, its basicly the same metro area as NY, separated by a bridge.

Governors are beginning to feel squeezed.

Cuomo Outlines May 15 Regional Reopening Criteria

Starting May 15, some regions in New York may be able to slowly restart the economy.

On the topic of reopening, he said it would be “more complicated then the close down,” which he called “a blunt operation.”

Reopening is “more nuanced, you have to be more careful,” the governor said.

The reopening will be phased and work hand-in-hand with measuring certain metrics.

“It’s not going to happen state-wide,” Cuomo said. “And rather than wait for the whole state to be ready, reopen on a regional basis. If upstate has to wait for downstate to be ready, they’re going to be waiting a long time. So, analyze the situation on a regional basis.”
-----------------
The coronavirus pandemic is pushing America into a mental health crisis

Mental health experts are especially worried about the ongoing economic devastation. Research has established a strong link between economic upheaval and suicide and substance use. A study of the Great Recession that began in late 2007 found that for every percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there was about a 1.6 percent increase in the suicide rate.

Using such estimations, a Texas nonprofit — Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute — created models that suggest if unemployment amid the coronavirus pandemic ends up rising 5 percentage points to a level similar to the Great Recession, an additional 4,000 people could die from suicide and an additional 4,800 from drug overdoses.

But if unemployment rises by 20 percentage points — to levels recorded during the 1930s Great Depression — suicides could increase by 18,000 and overdose deaths by more than 22,000, according to Meadows.

“These projections are not intended to question the necessity of virus mitigation efforts,” cautioned authors of the Meadows report, “but rather to inform health system planning.”

[stevenho]

That's great for the "almost none of them", I am sure they are doing fine all in the ground and stuff.

Let me make it more clear:
more medical personal here died in the last 2 months due to heart diseases/overwork than from COVID.