Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[PhaelixWW]

1. We can't block enough transmissions to make the level go down permanently.

No, but that's the point. We can make the level go down temporarily with strong measures, or else it goes up and up.

2. Isn't the point of the less restrictive measures to allow as high a transmission rate as the healthcare system can handle but not more?
So we would get an up and down, depending on lesser or more restrictions while maintaining the maximum rate in order to reach the herd immunity in a "safe" way.

I seriously doubt the goal of most countries is to ride the maximum capacity of their healthcare towards herd immunity. Again, we're talking about millions of lives. In the US, for example, that would be some 1-4m lives lost.

The current goal is more to minimize loss of life as much as we can afford to while we search for a treatment/vaccine.

As such, yes: we would keep it at an average level and it would still kill more that the flu. Hospitals wouldn't be overrun though and there would not be unnecessary deaths because of it.

Well, if you wanted to suggest that possibility, then you'd have to use just the last month as your repeating value, not the last 3 months. So 60k deaths in 1 month would mean 720k deaths in 12 months. Or I guess you could say 610k in 12 months, if you wanted to start at the beginning but just repeat the 3rd month 9 more times before the end of the year.

[Magical Mudcrab]

It takes a fuck-it attitude and billions of dollars you're comfortable with throwing at the problem, without any expectation of any return any time in the near future. Which, again, is great. But let's not treat him like some individual tech genius, because he's not.

On the other hand, while the fuck-it attitude may be what's required to get impressive, ambitious work done, it's also incredibly dangerous and is one that causes Tesla stocks to drop nearly 10% because of poorly thought-out tweets and has caused regular problems for Elon in the past.

[Endus]

On the other hand, while the fuck-it attitude may be what's required to get impressive, ambitious work done, it's also incredibly dangerous and is one that causes Tesla stocks to drop nearly 10% because of poorly thought-out tweets and has caused regular problems for Elon in the past.

Sure. I have a lot of respect for the guy for what he's achieved, but he's a giant loose cannon. I'd argue it's the same attitude leading to both, however, so I'm not actually sure there's an alternative; any Musk who was more collected and reasonable wouldn't have the crazy-ass idealism that's led his team to push past traditional limits that had no real reason to exist. It's like with Nikola Tesla, in a different way; the madness that let him innovate electrical technologies that we're still barely making use of, like wireless transmission of electricity, was the same madness that made him a recluse who was in deep romantic love with a pigeon. You don't get A without some of B, sometimes.

[Zantos]

The truth is that we have no widespread reports of any of the previously infected being actually infected again with an entirely new infection. That's not to say that it can't happen, but we likely would have heard many, many more cases of it if the relative immunity were only 2-3 weeks.

Here's the problem though, we don't have enough tests to confirm or deny it at this point. Right now, we ares struggling to test people in general. Everyone is. So if a patient comes in wanting a second test after already getting one that was positive, most places are going to say no.

I don't necessarily think we would have heard of a widespread reinfection given our current situation. We just don't have the means to keep an eye on it.

[Granyala]

The current goal is more to minimize loss of life as much as we can afford to while we search for a treatment/vaccine.

Quite possible.

Regarding the "level to hold": we don't have enough data to see whether such a thing is even possible. We all can agree that we can't keep the current measures up for a year or two until some vaccine is found, so the current level may be lower than we can afford long term.

[Tuor]

... we can't keep the current measures up for a year or two until some vaccine is found,

That won't happen unless a vaccine is mass produced , even with a vaccine being mass produced it might take up to 5 years to have enought vaccines to all people.

[Granyala]

That won't happen unless a vaccine is mass produced , even with a vaccine being mass produced it might take up to 5 years to have enought vaccines to all people.

IF we find one, yes.

[PhaelixWW]

Here's the problem though, we don't have enough tests to confirm or deny it at this point. Right now, we ares struggling to test people in general. Everyone is. So if a patient comes in wanting a second test after already getting one that was positive, most places are going to say no.

I don't necessarily think we would have heard of a widespread reinfection given our current situation. We just don't have the means to keep an eye on it.

On the contrary.

If someone went to the doctor and said that they tested positive a month or more ago, then recovered and have been healthy for 3 weeks, and now are showing symptoms again... I think the doctor would be likely rush to get them tested.

The question of whether or not reinfection is possible is one of the most important questions facing the medical profession today. Any doctor would want to find evidence if it were true.

[MCMLXXXII]

Press conference with Rutte.

Next week schools for kids up to 12 years old will open. Contact jobs like hairdressers, beauticians etc. can also open up.

1st of June cinemas, restaurants and bars are allowed to open up to a maximum of 30 people.
Middle schools shall open too.

1st of July to maximum of people will be 100. High schools can open too.

This all shall be maintained with 1.5 meters distance in mind.

Public transportation will go back to normal schedules. Wearing a mask shall be mandatory.

Most important, work from home as much as you can.

[x_Fiona_X]

I have to say, I am a little worried about contracting it at some point. I remember being in hospital due to pneumonia not too too long ago, it wasn't a pleasant experience. Hope every one else is managing okay.

[Tuor]

I have to say, I am a little worried about contracting it at some point. I remember being in hospital due to pneumonia not too too long ago, it wasn't a pleasant experience. Hope every one else is managing okay.

Everyone is worried, just relax and calm down...

... Sugestion

- - - Updated - - -

The question of whether or not reinfection is possible is one of the most important questions facing the medical profession today. Any doctor would want to find evidence if it were true.

For me look more like false positives. Here in Portugal there hasn't been a single case o reinfection. Also the WHO recomends 2 weeks without symptoms and 2 negative tests to declare recovery, it looks there are a lot of countries that are not following these recomendations.

[Shadowferal]

I have to say, I am a little worried about contracting it at some point. I remember being in hospital due to pneumonia not too too long ago, it wasn't a pleasant experience. Hope every one else is managing okay.

Why Some People Have Coronavirus Symptoms and Others Don't

Fuksina says that the current assumption is that 25 percent of the infected COVID-19 population "remains asymptomatic and never develop symptoms or have positive findings on chest X-rays." However, some studies have shown that as many as 80 percent of those with COVID-19 are "silent carriers," showing no or very mild symptoms. Why that is is a big question plaguing the medical and scientific communities.

------------
I think you're safe.

[Tuor]

Another vaccine
The vaccine developed by the italians has already been used in rats and passed the tests. The vaccine created imunity. Human tests to be donne during summer.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9501126.html

This seems to be the most promissing vaccine so far.

[Mitters]

Press conference with Rutte.

Next week schools for kids up to 12 years old will open. Contact jobs like hairdressers, beauticians etc. can also open up.

1st of June cinemas, restaurants and bars are allowed to open up to a maximum of 30 people.
Middle schools shall open too.

1st of July to maximum of people will be 100. High schools can open too.

This all shall be maintained with 1.5 meters distance in mind.

Public transportation will go back to normal schedules. Wearing a mask shall be mandatory.

Most important, work from home as much as you can.

And gyms closed until September 1st... unbelievable....

[Zan15]

As such, yes: we would keep it at an average level and it would still kill more that the flu. Hospitals wouldn't be overrun though and there would not be unnecessary deaths because of it.

P

You are under the basic assumption that hospitals, workers and supplies can keep up with sustained death rates far in excess of what the system was designed to handle.

At some point these workers are going to just throw their hands up in solidarity and say "fuck it" and walk off the job or demand massive hazard pay and we know how much the republicans support actually bailing out the real people in need.

[Cynep]

Well, if you wanted to suggest that possibility, then you'd have to use just the last month as your repeating value, not the last 3 months. So 60k deaths in 1 month would mean 720k deaths in 12 months. Or I guess you could say 610k in 12 months, if you wanted to start at the beginning but just repeat the 3rd month 9 more times before the end of the year.

Initially I was like "60k a month? Where'd you get that number, that's nothing", then I realized you're talking about, as someone called it, "1 random country" ;p

Deaths are already subsiding, so if we assume, as a ballpark figure, the average over the year will be 30k, half of the peak month (inb4 "asspull"), then you're looking at approximately 400k out of ~4 million deaths from all causes in USA having Covid as a contributing factor before the vaccine realistically arrives.

[PhaelixWW]

Deaths are already subsiding, so if we assume, as a ballpark figure, the average over the year will be 30k, half of the peak month (inb4 "asspull"), then you're looking at approximately 400k out of ~4 million deaths from all causes in USA having Covid as a contributing factor before the vaccine realistically arrives.

Deaths are subsiding... with lockdowns. Those lockdowns are already being partially lifted throughout the country, so the days of subsiding deaths are numbered.

[Trassk]

Another vaccine
The vaccine developed by the italians has already been used in rats and passed the tests. The vaccine created imunity. Human tests to be donne during summer.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9501126.html

This seems to be the most promissing vaccine so far.

maybe. problem is the virus keeps mutating, by the time enough vaccine is put out by world health, it'll have mutated into a new strain.

[Granyala]

You are under the basic assumption that hospitals, workers and supplies can keep up with sustained death rates far in excess of what the system was designed to handle.

Erm no. If we stabilize the rate at, say 80% of what our medical infrastructure can handle (to have some reserves), there should not be any problems.
If there are, the systems are badly designed.

As for the dead people piling up: toss the bodies onto a big heap and burn them. Shouldn't be difficult to get rid of a bit of biomatter in 2020.

[Zan15]

Erm no. If we stabilize the rate at, say 80% of what our medical infrastructure can handle (to have some reserves), there should not be any problems.
If there are, the systems are badly designed.

As for the dead people piling up: toss the bodies onto a big heap and burn them. Shouldn't be difficult to get rid of a bit of biomatter in 2020.

sustained throughput into our medical infrastructure even at reduced levels you are talking about would cripple most states infrastructure because of the very fact they are badly designed, for profit and unsupported by the federal govt.

That's the point even at a substantial reduction from today's level eventually stress cracks will appear in most of this countries health systems. They are just not designed to handle the pandemic