Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Orange Joe]

Do you believe that someone who is 65 is at the same risk of dying of the flu as someone who is 85?

I think the difference at the point is negligible. You're talking a difference of maybe .2%

[Omega10]

Do you believe that someone who is 66 is at the same risk of dying of the flu as someone who is 67?

There's always going to be a level at which the data are not granular enough to be 100% accurate. That doesn't invalidate the data. It also doesn't necessarily mean you should artificially step down the detail of other data just to make them more congruous.

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Neither one of these things is true, though.

Well according to the MSN Virus Tracker:

Number of new cases for the day world wide: +47,210
Number of new cases for the day US: +28,807

More than half of the world wide new cases is from the US.

So if I am interpreting the data correctly, and if it is even close to correct, it seems that the US has over half the cases (almost 29k for the US, 19k for the rest of the world).

For deaths, well this brings into question the MSN numbers completely:

Total US deaths as of now: 76,513
Total US deaths yesterday: 72,800

Difference for the day as of now: 3,713

Note that it says the number of deaths is +2,166.

My recollection is that earlier in the day all of the numbers were higher, and the number of deaths really was over 3k. This could be a matter of updating what they consider their "start time" for what is considered additional deaths.

From the information I have, both statements seem to be true. *Seem* is the operative word.

[PhaelixWW]

Well according to the MSN Virus Tracker:

Number of new cases for the day world wide: +47,210
Number of new cases for the day US: +28,807

More than half of the world wide new cases is from the US.

So if I am interpreting the data correctly, and if it is even close to correct, it seems that the US has over half the cases (almost 29k for the US, 19k for the rest of the world).

The Bing tracker offsets its daybreak differently. Those worldwide numbers, for example, don't include any daily totals for Spain, Italy, France, etc.

The worldometers data for yesterday (day just changed) shows the US with 29.5k new cases and 96.3k worldwide.

For deaths, well this brings into question the MSN numbers completely:

Total US deaths as of now: 76,513
Total US deaths yesterday: 72,800

Difference for the day as of now: 3,713

Note that it says the number of deaths is +2,166.

My recollection is that earlier in the day all of the numbers were higher, and the number of deaths really was over 3k. This could be a matter of updating what they consider their "start time" for what is considered additional deaths.

From the information I have, both statements seem to be true. *Seem* is the operative word.

Yeah, it looks like they're just catching up on older numbers somehow.

The worldometers data shows 2129 deaths in the US yesterday, bringing us to 76928.

[Zantos]

On the contrary.

If someone went to the doctor and said that they tested positive a month or more ago, then recovered and have been healthy for 3 weeks, and now are showing symptoms again... I think the doctor would be likely rush to get them tested.

The question of whether or not reinfection is possible is one of the most important questions facing the medical profession today. Any doctor would want to find evidence if it were true.

While that would be the case under normal circumstances, the tests are just far too sparse to really use for that type of thing. While its important to find more cases like my co-workers sister, not a lot of places are willing to try. They are having to prioritize who gets to use the tests. With flu also being a possible suspect, I would find it hard to say for sure that they would bother.

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The worldometers data shows 2129 deaths in the US yesterday, bringing us to 76928.

Few more days and this will have officially passed the worst flu in the past 40 years. Wonder what people will say then since the old "its just a flu" will have been thoroughly defeated.

[PhaelixWW]

While that would be the case under normal circumstances, the tests are just far too sparse to really use for that type of thing. While its important to find more cases like my co-workers sister, not a lot of places are willing to try. They are having to prioritize who gets to use the tests. With flu also being a possible suspect, I would find it hard to say for sure that they would bother.

No, the tests are sparse but they're not that sparse. They'd absolutely prioritize proof of a reinfection over some random test. No question.

Second, they test for the flu first. Tests for the flu take like 15 minutes, and I'm sure that most places are testing for the flu before ever testing for the coronavirus. Certainly if someone came in claiming reinfection, they'd eliminate that possibility.

Few more days and this will have officially passed the worst flu in the past 40 years. Wonder what people will say then since the old "its just a flu" will have been thoroughly defeated.

I'm still waiting for "the Spanish Flu was still worse!" as the last holdout of that mindset.

[breadisfunny]

No, the tests are sparse but they're not that sparse. They'd absolutely prioritize proof of a reinfection over some random test. No question.

Second, they test for the flu first. Tests for the flu take like 15 minutes, and I'm sure that most places are testing for the flu before ever testing for the coronavirus. Certainly if someone came in claiming reinfection, they'd eliminate that possibility.



I'm still waiting for "the Spanish Flu was still worse!" as the last holdout of that mindset.

don't worry there's still the "well at least it's not the black death!"

[PhaelixWW]

don't worry there's still the "well at least it's not the black death!"

We wish it was the black death. The black death is curable. I mean, it's still around to this day.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

1) We live in a democracy. In order to implement fundamental changes, you need the people to agree with you. What you propose is basically totalitarian in nature.

3) It's not anti communist BS, it's reality of human nature. Human nature leads to the forming of a powerful elite and them mis-using said power.
Again: you need to change the values perceived by humans in order to effectively curb such behavior.

And even then, as shown by around 20 centuries of experimental data, I'd wager it is way too ingrained within human nature to work : the Catholic church did have a massive clout on societal values, and for centuries frowned upon the pursuit of profit and lauded frugality and poverty, enough for numerous powerful and well-to-do individuals to actually renounce their riches and set up communist utopias. Long story short, it has forever been a minority phenomenon, facing a cycle of expansion, decadence and either self-collapse or being thorn apart by the rest of society.

[Deathknightish]

In a year, Norway, Denmark and Finland will be in the race for Sweden in terms of number of dead, believes former state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke, who is interviewed by Dagens Nyheter.

When the magazine asks how to see that the other Nordic countries currently have far fewer deaths in covid-19 than Sweden replies Giesecke:

- Wait a year to count how many deaths there are. Only then do we know. Finland has succeeded fantastically well with its closure. But I spoke with Finnish state epidemiologist Mika Salminen a few days ago and they have a large part of the population that will be susceptible to the disease this fall. And he is really worried about what happens then, when you start to ease the limitations. That's when people die. They will catch up with us, this also applies to Denmark and Norway.

Google translated, but you get the point.

[ErrandRunner]

Why did people laugh when I said earlier China will be sued? This is exactly what is happening now. The lab where this disease was released is USA financed so they should have to pay reparations too. Can you imagine how much green you could score taking the Chinese and USA Governments to court and winning?

[Skulltaker]

We wish it was the black death. The black death is curable. I mean, it's still around to this day.

No, no no no. No we don't. While you're correct that the plague is treatable, both by vaccination and antibiotics, there's a notable increase in resistance of the bacteria, which is slightly worrying. We do not want more people exposed to it, because that would lead to an increased development of resistance. And we do not want an anti-biotic resistant black death. It's still a very nasty infection

Why did people laugh when I said earlier China will be sued? This is exactly what is happening now. The lab where this disease was released is USA financed so they should have to pay reparations too. Can you imagine how much green you could score taking the Chinese and USA Governments to court and winning?

Because for the lawsuit to have any success you'd need proof of malpractice. Which you probably won't get.

[kamuimac]

It's pretty funny to see Trump raging about China, when China literally built hospitals in less than 6 days to deal with the situation.

USA is more infected than China ever was right now, due to literally doing nothing proper about it and being so dumb to try and reopen already while the infection keeps growing like a wildfire out of control still.

ey they can at least follow their president advice and inject themselves with bleach -_-

[Strawberry]

I had Covid-19 in early March and now I've been hit really hard with some allergy, probably pollen.
The thing is, I've never had pollen allergy. Not even a tiny bit. And while it's perfectly possible to develop allergy later in life, going from 0% allergy last year to this bad is weird.
And it's not my lungs. It's my runny eyes and nose is blocked.
Allergy tablets help, but not 100%.

[Grimbold21]

Seems the US registered 2448 deaths in the last 24 hours.

...Winning?

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I had Covid-19 in early March and now I've been hit really hard with some allergy, probably pollen.
The thing is, I've never had pollen allergy. Not even a tiny bit. And while it's perfectly possible to develop allergy later in life, going from 0% allergy last year to this bad is weird.
And it's not my lungs. It's my runny eyes and nose is blocked.
Allergy tablets help, but not 100%.

Well, research wise, besides a vaccine, what is left unresearched is are the long term effects of Corona on your body.

So, talking out of my arse, you may be experiencing some side effects of the virus.

[xenogear3]

I had Covid-19 in early March and now I've been hit really hard with some allergy, probably pollen.
The thing is, I've never had pollen allergy. Not even a tiny bit. And while it's perfectly possible to develop allergy later in life, going from 0% allergy last year to this bad is weird.
And it's not my lungs. It's my runny eyes and nose is blocked.
Allergy tablets help, but not 100%.

Did you take a test recently?
Do you still have the virus and antibody?

I suspect that I had Covid-19 late March.
1.5 month later, I think it is still in my body.

[Puupi]

Google translated, but you get the point.

Yeah.

"We are deliberately letting our own citizens die but it's all fine, because other countries will kill their citizens soon, too. Trust me!"

The mental gymnastics people do to justify their gerontocide...

[Granyala]

Yeah.
"We are deliberately letting our own citizens die but it's all fine, because other countries will kill their citizens soon, too. Trust me!"
The mental gymnastics people do to justify their gerontocide...

Shouldn't take a Genius to know that he is right. Oo

Country A: locks down and slows the spread.
Country B: embraces the Virus.

Obviously, B's numbers will far exceed A's in the beginning. Given time, A will catch up to B, because most of B's inhabitants are already immune.
If (big IF, big gamble) B's health care can withstand the uncontrolled spread, B made the right choice and will end up with similar numbers to A.
If the health care cannot withstand the number of cases, B will end up with significantly more dead people.

Ofc that is only applicable if the immunity lasts long enough for secondary waves to be a non issue to B.

[KaPe]

Shouldn't take a Genius to know that he is right. Oo

Country A: locks down and slows the spread.
Country B: embraces the Virus.

Obviously, B's numbers will far exceed A's in the beginning. Given time, A will catch up to B, because most of B's inhabitants are already immune.
If (big IF, big gamble) B's health care can withstand the uncontrolled spread, B made the right choice and will end up with similar numbers to A.
If the health care cannot withstand the number of cases, B will end up with significantly more dead people.

Ofc that is only applicable if the immunity lasts long enough for secondary waves to be a non issue to B.

This is all good and well, if you ignore the fact that vaccines are being developed. Assuming the mass infection stage is delayed long enough, you'd be able to get immunity through that, thus avoiding any risks. In that case, A will never catch up to B.

[Levelfive]

Shouldn't take a Genius to know that he is right. Oo

Country A: locks down and slows the spread.
Country B: embraces the Virus.

Obviously, B's numbers will far exceed A's in the beginning. Given time, A will catch up to B, because most of B's inhabitants are already immune.
If (big IF, big gamble) B's health care can withstand the uncontrolled spread, B made the right choice and will end up with similar numbers to A.
If the health care cannot withstand the number of cases, B will end up with significantly more dead people.

Ofc that is only applicable if the immunity lasts long enough for secondary waves to be a non issue to B.

Guessing this has already been pointed out numerous times in this thread, but we don't even have evidence yet that people who get it become immune. Per the WHO: "There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."

https://www.who.int/news-room/commen...xt-of-covid-19

[Granyala]

This is all good and well, if you ignore the fact that vaccines are being developed. Assuming the mass infection stage is delayed long enough, you'd be able to get immunity through that, thus avoiding any risks. In that case, A will never catch up to B.

Development of a Vaccine will take longer than A would be able to sustain the lockdowns. IF a vaccine is successful, which isn't guaranteed.

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Per the WHO: "There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."

Yo and there is also no conclusive evidence to the contrary.
Bottom line: we simply do not know yet because of insufficient data.