Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Hilhen7]

https://www.gq.com/story/arizona-republican-face-mask

So...there are rallies against wearing masks. Yes, this is America. And a city councilmember decided to "adopt" the "I can't breathe" slogan that has been used by activists against police brutality and racism for well over half a decade, because I guess he wanted to make sure everyone knows he's a piece of shit.

I still can't believe that something as simple and easy as wearing a god-damned mask in public has become fucking political.

I wonder if this issue will resolve itself as these very fine people get themselves infected...?

[Cynep]

Because:
1. it is a conspiracy theory to suggest that all the Covid apps are meant to control you.
2. actions of wannabe autocrats can not be attributed to the general situation in the world. Russia is not an example to be taken in mind, Orban is becoming an outcast in Europe.
3. It has already killed far more than the seasonal flu in shorter period of time. Only reason it has not killed more is because world went into lockdown.

1. I said Covid apps are intrusive, what do you even mean by "control"? Donetsk People's Republic already tracks my phone location without any apps, every phone has a hardware ID; so does Ukraine with everyone who crosses the border.
2. So it did happen after all? Good we can agree and move on to more interesting topics.
3. Flu killed 100 times more people than Covid (so far) in its inaugural pandemic, google Spanish flu. And then it came back over and over for yearly seasons, 100 times now - will Covid do that for 100 years?, - and also it killed a million in one go in late 1950s and again in late 1960s, when it wasn't a surprise anymore. Yes lockdowns yada yada; SARS-CoV-2 virus is worse in theory, but flu disease is far worse in practice. History doesn't deal in what ifs.

[Edge-]

https://www.history.com/news/1918-sp...ing-resistance

Jesus...more than a century later, with far, far better understandings of science and medicine and so much progress...but some folks seem determined to live in the fucking dark ages. I say let them, no fucking modern technology or conveniences.

[kail]

Every one of these fucking morons votes...

As an embarrassed Floridian, this video made my week.

[wunksta]

Jesus...more than a century later, with far, far better understandings of science and medicine and so much progress...but some folks seem determined to live in the fucking dark ages. I say let them, no fucking modern technology or conveniences.

Even the Amish have been taking precautions
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/u...irus-ohio.html

[PhaelixWW]

Yes of course, the only reason we're not in millions of dead by now is because of the countermeasures. However, due to the prevention paradox, Covid now appears smaller than even Hong Kong flu.

For someone who is talking about how wrong it is to make bad comparisons, you sure are eager to make bad comparisons.

The 1968 H3N2 flu pandemic took place over more than a year, or two full waves. The 1918 H1N1 flu pandemic took place over three years and four waves. In both cases, the second wave was worse than the first.

And yet the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic isn't over. The point that you appear to be forgetting is that those countermeasures that were employed did not stop the virus, they merely delayed the spread of the virus. And not all those countermeasures can be maintained throughout. Even if a vaccine is created in record time, we're still going to see more and more deaths occur before such a vaccine could be widely administered.

And the biggest "what if" will remain unanswered: could Covid, if left completely unchecked, come even close to the Spanish flu's death toll? Thankfully, we'll never know.

And yet we can answer that. If no vaccine were created and no effective treatment discovered, then the worldwide deathtoll would likely range from ~10 million (50% HIT, 0.2% IFR) to ~65 million (85% HIT, 1.0% IFR). A reasonable middle ground estimate would be ~25 million (65% HIT, 0.5% IFR). Those numbers don't include extra loss of life due to overrun facilities and/or possible reinfections, as well.

Thankfully, we have a fairly decent shot at creating a vaccine in the foreseeable future.

[szechuan]

but flu disease is far worse in practice. History doesn't deal in what ifs.

Flu Vaccines are a what if?

Flu killed 100 times more people than Covid (so far) in its inaugural pandemic, google Spanish flu.

He was talking about the seasonal Flu.

Also completely disingenuous to suggest that the severity of the Coronavirus has been overstated because the flu for various reasons and especially the Spanish Flu because you're completely ignoring the Historical Context as to why as the Spanish Flu had a higher death toll.

[Easo]

1. I said Covid apps are intrusive, what do you even mean by "control"? Donetsk People's Republic already tracks my phone location without any apps, every phone has a hardware ID; so does Ukraine with everyone who crosses the border.
2. So it did happen after all? Good we can agree and move on to more interesting topics.
3. Flu killed 100 times more people than Covid (so far) in its inaugural pandemic, google Spanish flu. And then it came back over and over for yearly seasons, 100 times now - will Covid do that for 100 years?, - and also it killed a million in one go in late 1950s and again in late 1960s, when it wasn't a surprise anymore. Yes lockdowns yada yada; SARS-CoV-2 virus is worse in theory, but flu disease is far worse in practice. History doesn't deal in what ifs.

1. I really do not think wannabe rebel goverment from wannabe "republic" is a good example. Intrusive? Don't install them. Forced to install it? Well, guess what, your "country" sucks (though I think you did say something similar some time ago anyway). No one is forcing me to install the app in Latvia, I did it on my own volition. Not intrusive at all. Tracks ID? Well, are you sure about that? In any case, the very nature of mobile phones allows tracking via triangulation, it is how physics work after all.
2. Because some have tried to do something, does not mean it is the general direction the world is moving. Especially when one example is Russia...
3. Spanish flu was a century ago, with a lot of different factors, chiefly way, WAY less advanced medicine and understanding of virus infections. And yes, I indeed am talking about seasonal flu.

[bmjclark]

https://www.khou.com/article/news/he...7-1fd36cdf4cf3

Texas Medical Center is now officially at 100% ICU capacity. They have space for surge but I doubt it's sustainable, especially since real measures still havent been taken to curb this spread in Texas. Nice of Texas to volunteer to be the test case for "what if we just did absolutely nothing about covid-19"

[breadisfunny]

America needs to be crop dusted, with a sterilizer.

nah just deny said people any future medical care.

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looks like Brazil and some parts of the USA are going to show us what it looks like completely unchecked.

Brazil looks like if you intentionally did a worse case scenario science experiment right now.

we're gonna give brazil a run for their money. we'll show them what worst case scenario means. we're gonna pass 2.5 million cases today!

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Mostly everyone I see around my town are wearing a mask. I usually wear one except when on jogging or doing free weights. Thats right ... the gyms are open.

around here it seems to be about 50/50.

[zorkuus]

nah just deny said people any future medical care.

Sometimes it's better to just restart with a clean slate. Besides dumb people breed like rabbits, they have had offspring already before they die to medical issues.

[Orange Joe]

compare flagship-to-flagship like you should,

Which is impossible. Our medical knowledge has increased by leaps and bounds to what it was then. Many many more would have died from Covid if not for hospitals with current technology, education and respirators.

[Gorsameth]

https://www.khou.com/article/news/he...7-1fd36cdf4cf3

Texas Medical Center is now officially at 100% ICU capacity. They have space for surge but I doubt it's sustainable, especially since real measures still havent been taken to curb this spread in Texas. Nice of Texas to volunteer to be the test case for "what if we just did absolutely nothing about covid-19"

Best case is another 2 weeks of growth because of lag time, if action large scale action is taken immediately.

Ugly stuff.

[xenogear3]

100% ICU capacity is a good thing !
It means that people are not dying. Of course, not healing either.

It is like the bathroom in a restaurant with poison food.

[Orange Joe]

100% ICU capacity is a good thing !
It means that people are not dying. Of course, not healing either.

It is like the bathroom in a restaurant with poison food.

This has to be sarcasm?

[PhaelixWW]

This has to be sarcasm?

I would suggest not paying too much attention to that poster. Their posts are like clickbait.

[Cynep]

Which is impossible. Our medical knowledge has increased by leaps and bounds to what it was then. Many many more would have died from Covid if not for hospitals with current technology, education and respirators.

Yes, impossible to compare properly. This argument started with another poster saying "Morons are screaming in comments that the virus was most definitely not worse than flu." How do you compare a disease that killed close to 100 million over 100+ years to a disease that only has half a pandemic lasting half a year, with half a million victims, and is being countered by modern medicine and vast government powers? You can't, any comparison is unfair in one way or another. A speculation what if Covid appeared in 1918 and flu in 2019 is rather silly

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For someone who is talking about how wrong it is to make bad comparisons, you sure are eager to make bad comparisons.
The 1968 H3N2 flu pandemic took place over more than a year, or two full waves. The 1918 H1N1 flu pandemic took place over three years and four waves. In both cases, the second wave was worse than the first.

Yes, you're right. Note the emphasized "appears" word. How do you compare pandemics 50 years apart? The concept of ICUs just barely appeared back then. Any comparison between the towering 100+ year old dinosaur and an up-and-coming new sprout is destined to fail.

And yet we can answer that. If no vaccine were created and no effective treatment discovered, then the worldwide deathtoll would likely range from ~10 million (50% HIT, 0.2% IFR) to ~65 million (85% HIT, 1.0% IFR). A reasonable middle ground estimate would be ~25 million (65% HIT, 0.5% IFR).

Okay, but that's an estimate of "what if". We won't get actual facts from that alternate universe where it happened

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He was talking about the seasonal Flu.

Also completely disingenuous to suggest that the severity of the Coronavirus has been overstated because the flu for various reasons and especially the Spanish Flu because you're completely ignoring the Historical Context as to why as the Spanish Flu had a higher death toll.

Well then, let's not be disingenuous. Seasonal flu vs seasonal Covid, flu wins 100-0. Covid won't be seasonal, it doesn't mutate like flu.

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1. I really do not think wannabe rebel goverment from wannabe "republic" is a good example. Intrusive? Don't install them. Forced to install it? Well, guess what, your "country" sucks (though I think you did say something similar some time ago anyway). No one is forcing me to install the app in Latvia, I did it on my own volition. Not intrusive at all. Tracks ID? Well, are you sure about that? In any case, the very nature of mobile phones allows tracking via triangulation, it is how physics work after all.
2. Because some have tried to do something, does not mean it is the general direction the world is moving. Especially when one example is Russia...
3. Spanish flu was a century ago, with a lot of different factors, chiefly way, WAY less advanced medicine and understanding of virus infections. And yes, I indeed am talking about seasonal flu.

1. Not much to disagree here. Yes, given the choice, I would not install an app that turns Bluetooth or WiFi on. To explain the ID stuff, older phones had IMEI, newer ones have some equivalent. Authorities here require you to provide it at one point or another, linking the device to the person. That's how it is here since the war.

3. See my replies to other posters above.

[bmjclark]

Another day, another new record on new cases in the US. See you all again tomorrow for the next new record.

[Breccia]

Texas Medical Center is now officially at 100% ICU capacity.

Texas Has Set A New Coronavirus Hospitalization Record Every Day For 2 Weeks

It's not about testing.

Texas has set yet another somber milestone in a month in which coronavirus has spread widely in the state, reporting on Thursday a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations for the 14th day in a row, while it also reported a record number of new cases for the third day in a row.

There are now 4,739 patients hospitalized with coronavirus in Texas, a number that has increased every day for the past two weeks and is more than double the total from June 10.

The state also reported 5,996 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, setting a new daily record for the third day running, and after initially lagging behind the other increases, Texas reported 47 coronavirus deaths on Thursday—the most in over a month.

Also:

Because the spread is so rampant right now, there's never a reason for you to have to leave your home

-- Gov. Abbott of Texas

[PhaelixWW]

Yes, impossible to compare properly.

How do you compare pandemics 50 years apart?

But that's how science works, you see; we can measure quite a few things.

COVID has a higher R0 value than the flu, which means it's more contagious. COVID has a higher herd immunity threshold than the flu (due to the higher R0), which means it will spread farther. COVID has a higher IFR than the flu, which means it's more lethal. And COVID has no vaccine yet, unlike the flu.

It is objectively worse by pretty much every method of scientific comparison.

Okay, but that's an estimate of "what if". We won't get actual facts from that alternate universe where it happened

And yet we are dealing in actual facts. We don't need to actually live through it to know roughly how it would be. To pretend otherwise is just being disingenuous.

Seasonal flu vs seasonal Covid, flu wins 100-0. Covid won't be seasonal, it doesn't mutate like flu.

You're saying this like you know it for a fact.

You do not.

You're just being ridiculous now. You're ignoring facts that you don't want to hear, and making up ones that you like. That's just bad.