Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Ladey Gags]

Bio engineered and released in order to study the effects of a temporary partial collapse of society in order to prepare for the coming total collapse within the next decade or two.

Welcome to hell everyone.

[EnclosedOne]

there are only two things that will make the u.s. government finally start taking this shit seriously, which they are not currently doing

1 - members of congress/government start getting it and dying/losing loved ones
2 - it starts to actually affect the work force leading to the rich losing money then they'll care because money > lives but they need those lives to have that money so to protect their money they'll start trying to protect the people

until those in power are affected by this they will continue to do half assed measures if anything at all

[Zan15]

OH NO HOW WILL WE LIVE NOW???


Late night shows will go without audiences because of coronavirus


ehehe

[Sativex]

Unless you are old or have a compromised immune system, odds are you will be fine.

Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths.[1][4] About 20% of unvaccinated children and 10% of unvaccinated adults are infected each year.[14] In the northern and southern parts of the world, outbreaks occur mainly in the winter, while around the equator, outbreaks may occur at any time of the year.[1] Death occurs mostly in high risk groups—the young, the old, and those with other health problems.[1] Larger outbreaks known as pandemics are less frequent.[2] In the 20th century, three influenza pandemics occurred: Spanish influenza in 1918 (17–100 million deaths), Asian influenza in 1957 (two million deaths), and Hong Kong influenza in 1968 (one million deaths).[15][16][17] The World Health Organization declared an outbreak of a new type of influenza A/H1N1 to be a pandemic in June 2009.[18] Influenza may also affect other animals, including pigs, horses, and birds.[19]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

It does have a higher morality rate than the typical flu, 2% vs. 0.1.

I think it has been blown out of proportion by the media and that has altered the usual numbers coming in.

Most time I(and people I know) get the flu, I/we stay home, suffer it out and go back to our lives, but now we have all this news about corona so many more people are heading to the doctor, which increases the stats for the virus. Without all the media, the numbers reported would be lower.

We had 2 "big" scares in the recent past, SARS & bird flu, which were both blown out of proportion by the media and little actual damage done statistically.

I hope I'm right, because if I'm wrong lots will be dead. We will see if more than 300k die in the next 11 months and top the low end of influenza deaths, it will take 700k dead in a year to make this worse than the common flu.

[PhaelixWW]

Any citation on this?

I can't find the original source that I read, so take this with a grain of salt, I guess.

There are reports of people getting sick from the virus more than once.

There is also evidence that there are two strains making the rounds.

But the original point was about reports of long incubation times. The WHO indicates that those outliers are probably instead due to a second, unknown exposure closer to the actual symptomatic phase.

(37:00 mark of the video):
A very long incubation period can reflect a double exposure. We take exposure as a proxy for infection, so we assume this exposure led to the infection. We've seen this in Ebola, where we've seen very long incubation periods and then when we investigate we find there was a second exposure a week later or two weeks later and that's when the actual infection occurred. So there very often can be outliers and they can be because of the recording of the exposure, so we need to be really, really careful when we look at outlier figures. The median incubation period of that study is actually five days...

[Shadowferal]

What's the risk of COVID-19 for a healthy young person?

The risk of serious illness due to COVID-19 is far higher for people who are older and have underlying medical conditions. People 60 and older accounted for more than 80% of the deaths in China, according to a major study in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

But rare exceptions have popped up in the scientific literature, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“There will be, as we’ve seen in influenza, an occasional person, who’s young and healthy, who winds up getting COVID-19, seriously ill and dies,” Fauci said in an interview with Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor of JAMA. “But if you look at the weight of the data, the risk group is very, very clear.”

These are the COVID-19 mortality rates by age calculated by the Chinese CDC:

• ages 10-19: 0.2%

• ages 20-29: 0.2%

• ages 30-39: 0.2%

• ages 40-49: 0.4%

• ages 50-59: 1.3%

• ages 60-69: 3.6%

• ages 70-79: 8%

• 80 and over: 14.8%

The overall mortality rate estimated by researchers was 2.3%, but experts caution that it is likely exaggerated due to milder cases that have gone uncounted.

[PhaelixWW]

Unless you are old or have a compromised immune system, odds are you will be fine.

It does have a higher morality rate than the typical flu, 2% vs. 0.1.

Except that it's NOT a flu. And there is no vaccine, or previous antibodies built up by years of prior exposure. So instead of 1-3% of the population getting sick with an illness that has a 0.1% mortality rate, we're going to see upwards of 70% of the population getting sick with an illness that has a 2-3% mortality rate.

And even if "odds are you will be fine", odds are also that you'll know someone (or many someones) who won't be.

I think it has been blown out of proportion by the media and that has altered the usual numbers coming in.

Has it been blown out of proportion by every single health organization official throughout the world, too?

Willful ignorance is a damned shame.

[lockybalboa]

The way Trump is downplaying this issue is revolting

[PhaelixWW]

Numbers for the US today are starting to roll in. So far it's another 281 cases, up to 1275, with another 7 deaths, up to 37.

100 of those new cases are from here in Washington, which is now reporting 366 confirmed cases.

[Yadryonych]

OH NO HOW WILL WE LIVE NOW???


Late night shows will go without audiences because of coronavirus


ehehe

Good thing, those people are payed extras anyway, not a real audience

[Grand Phoenix]

Just found out that the elementary and high school I used to go to may have a potential case, although the person in question is so far not showing any signs related to the virus. They're closing them down next couple days for cleaning, and the family is awaiting results while they self-isolate.

I'm a fifteen minute walk from the elementary school.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/subur...2y4-story.html

My family's reaction? "We don't travel and when we do cough/sneeze we turn our heads to the side. We'll be fine." Says one of the people who is a heavy smoker and has openly mocked me for expressing concerns for everyone's health.

Please tell that to my anxiety and hypochondria, even if I don't have any medical conditions that'll make it worse and in an age bracket where my odds are good I'll be fine.

[Sativex]

Has it been blown out of proportion by every single health organization official throughout the world, too?

Willful ignorance is a damned shame.

If it ends up like SARs and the bird flu, then yes. SARs was a pandemic also, nothing came of it.

It's not the flu, but shares many of the same traits, same as SARs and others, which were all blown way out of proportion statistically.

Regular flu (Influenza) kills between 290k-650k a year, we will see if in 11 months there are 700k+ dead, then I'll admit it's not scare tactics.

[Maneo]

Interesting two of my local colleges just shut down the campuses and are going to online classes it seems.

Hasn't affected where I am going as of yet, but we shall see.

https://www.pressherald.com/2020/03/...H4GuErYoQGrK3U

[Zan15]

Good thing, those people are payed extras anyway, not a real audience

nah they sell tickets. been to a bunch of them

when they have poor sales they give them away.

- - - Updated - - -

If it ends up like SARs and the bird flu, then yes. SARs was a pandemic also, nothing came of it.

It's not the flu, but shares many of the same traits, same as SARs and others, which were all blown way out of proportion statistically.

Regular flu (Influenza) kills between 290k-650k a year, we will see if in 11 months there are 700k+ dead, then I'll admit it's not scare tactics.

well the extraordinary actions taken vs next to no actions taken with the seasonal influenzas' will limit the number of dead.

if they let this breed like the regular flu and did not hit those numbers then you would have a good case to admit it was just panic.

when was the last time they quarantined 500 million people for the flu.

[Sativex]

nah they sell tickets. been to a bunch of them

when they have poor sales they give them away.

- - - Updated - - -



well the extraordinary actions taken vs next to no actions taken with the seasonal influenzas' will limit the number of dead.

if they let this breed like the regular flu and did not hit those numbers then you would have a good case to admit it was just panic.

when was the last time they quarantined 500 million people for the flu.

The flu is much more treatable at the moment, as I said, for me, it will have to have killed more than the flu over a years time to make the scare tactics/panic warranted.

It's only my opinion, almost every new virus gets a panic like this and ends up statistically insignificant.

As I said before, I'd hate to be wrong.

[Poe]

E3 just got cancelled

Damn lol

[Zan15]

The flu is much more treatable at the moment, as I said, for me, it will have to have killed more than the flu over a years time to make the scare tactics/panic warranted.

It's only my opinion, almost every new virus gets a panic like this and ends up statistically insignificant.

As I said before, I'd hate to be wrong.

again you can no longer compare the two because of the extreme measures taken for 1 vs the other.

its like comparing how many push up you can do vs you doing it with 900 lbs strapped to your back.

even if it ends up being 1/10th its most likely going to come down to either countries lying about totals or the extreme measures taken actually worked.

what are we up to 4 countries being completely shut down?

[PrimiOne]

If it ends up like SARs and the bird flu, then yes. SARs was a pandemic also, nothing came of it.

It's not the flu, but shares many of the same traits, same as SARs and others, which were all blown way out of proportion statistically.

Regular flu (Influenza) kills between 290k-650k a year, we will see if in 11 months there are 700k+ dead, then I'll admit it's not scare tactics.

You are just looking at the mortality rate ,seeing it a big higher ( that "small" difference is actually huge) and completely ignoring the reproductive number of covid-19 that is 2-3 as opossed to regular influenza that is 1.3 -1.5 in winter.

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.c...71-2334-14-480

Does this mean its gonna infect double the people as regular flu? NO. Big bold capital no but I'll use a simple math example to illustrate(this is not the actual contagion math -a bit more complex - but if you want to see it we can):

1.3 ^2 = 1.69
1.3 ^3= 2.85
1.3^4 = 3.71

2.5^2 = 6.25
2.5^3 = 15.65
2.5^4 = 39.06

See? In just 4 exponents the result has been multiplied by more than 10.

There is no influenza known to man that threaten (well see how it goes) to infect 70% of world population and this is taking extreme measures. Hell, with an RN of 1.3 we can be sneezing in each other mouthes and regular influenza would just infect a small fraction of 5 billion people.

This is not a flu. I know it's comforting to think its just a flu but it's not. The state of world alarm is not unjustified and the experts that are warning are not overreacting.

[Sativex]

again you can no longer compare the two because of the extreme measures taken for 1 vs the other.

its like comparing how many push up you can do vs you doing it with 900 lbs strapped to your back.

even if it ends up being 1/10th its most likely going to come down to either countries lying about totals or the extreme measures taken actually worked.

what are we up to 4 countries being completely shut down?

You can compare them with statistics, saying you can't is ignorant at best or lying at worse. But, we will need time to gather a significant data sample.

These extreme measure you keep talking about will do the same thing to the flu as corona, so both numbers would be affected.

[PhaelixWW]

If it ends up like SARs and the bird flu, then yes. SARs was a pandemic also, nothing came of it.

Even a casual examination of the containment efforts and effectiveness between SARS and COVID-19 show that while SARS was able to be contained, COVID-19 is not. COVID-19 is much more contagious, especially since it's communicability is not limited to its symptomatic phase. Data from the WHO report on SARS states:

Transmission efficiency appears to be greatest from severely ill patients or those experiencing rapid clinical deterioration, usually during the second week of illness. Data from Singapore (Figure 1) show that few secondary cases occur when symptomatic cases are isolated within 5 days of illness onset. This inference of infectivity by time since onset derived from epidemiological observations correlates very closely with laboratory data on cases. Maximum virus excretion from the respiratory tract occurs on about day 10 of illness and then declines.

So SARS was far less contagious until people were already quarantined. And since many people with COVID-19 are relatively asymptomatic while still being highly-contagious carriers, it's virtually impossible to stop this outbreak.

It's not the flu, but shares many of the same traits, same as SARs and others, which were all blown way out of proportion statistically.

SARS was objectively more lethal than COVID-19 is. Had they lost a handle on the SARS outbreak, the result would have been... "catastrophic" doesn't even seem to be a good enough word. But that's the thing about infectious diseases. Either they're contained before they're big, or they're huge. There's no inbetween.

Regular flu (Influenza) kills between 290k-650k a year, we will see if in 11 months there are 700k+ dead, then I'll admit it's not scare tactics.

Out of curiosity, what do you think is likely to stop it?