Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[beanman12345]

The Badlands National Park is kinda cool. You can do Mt. Rushmore, Badlands, Devil's Tower in Wyoming on the way to Yellowstone. It's a pretty nice trip.

Could not agree more, I've done the gambit and have visited almost every single state, and Badlands very memorable in good way.

[Tuor]

Bad news from Portugal. We back to 600+ daily cases, more restrictions on next 15 september, even we already knew those restrictions were comming in the past 2 weeks.

[Yunru]

Here the goverment is now sending people to download stupid app. HELL NO.

[Tuor]

Here the goverment is now sending people to download stupid app. HELL NO.

We have a similar systhem... I still haven't downloaded it, nor i have intentions to do so.

[Gaidax]

We have the app here, some use, some don't.

I do use it, I don't mind. If the government wants to track me, they can anyway, so might as well get some benefit of it.

It's not horribly useful tbh, it did notify me a couple of times about intersections I had, but these notifications came a good 5 days or so after it happened, so I'm not sure how it's useful in reality.

It's also not super precise, but good enough there. For example it can tell you that a positive person was detected in a supermarket in a rather wide time window, like let's say 11-14 o'clock. That's decent, IMO, but the delay is killing it, really.

[Forogil]

Probably not per se, it happens all the time in vaccine trials. The mere thing that it happened is a major setback though - typically such shutdowns last 6 to 8 months, this one could last less due to the emergency, but every day counts. Hopefully the independent commission will be quick and efficient.

It lasted substantially less, they resumed it earlier today:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/...in-the-uk.html

[Easo]

Baltic bubble died off with Latvia now having mandatory 2 week isolation period if arriving from Estonia. Lithuania is sure to follow.
Latvia is the only one with "low" infection rates remaining.

Yay...

[Coolthulhu]

It lasted substantially less, they resumed it earlier today:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/...in-the-uk.html

Good. I feel like they might've swept something under the carpet or been granted the ability to ignore standard procedures due to the emergency, but given the circumstances I also feel it's for the best.

[Scathbais]

No shit, the point is that no one is arguing anyone should while some are trying to argue this is the position of people saying the US should go into a lockdown for a few months.

And yes the US gone into a lockdown before, that everyone ignored and opened up way to soon so it didn't do anything.

That is what some people are not getting, its not about a constant lockdown. Its about doing it correctly once. Which the US has utterly failed at.

Not true. The virus simply won't go away on its own. The only way to establish herd immunity is to have a large portion of the population either get sick or get vaccinated. Sitting at home does neither. The intention of the lockdown was never to eradicate the virus but to not overwhelm the health care system, which we successfully did. Remember "two weeks to flatten the curve"? Remember "experts" were predicting +2 million US dead if we didn't flatten the curve and 1 million dead regardless. Well that clearly didn't happen.

[Logwyn]

Not true. The virus simply won't go away on its own. The only way to establish herd immunity is to have a large portion of the population either get sick or get vaccinated. Sitting at home does neither. The intention of the lockdown was never to eradicate the virus but to not overwhelm the health care system, which we successfully did. Remember "two weeks to flatten the curve"? Remember "experts" were predicting +2 million US dead if we didn't flatten the curve and 1 million dead regardless. Well that clearly didn't happen.

To get herd immunity with what is the current believed spread rate we would need to get between 50-75% of the population either vaccinated/catch it. We'd have to get that number to at least 164.1 million to get it/vaccinated. With the ~3% mortality rate we'd kill off 4.9 million people unless those are vaccinated people.

Fun times there. Also we really don't know the chance or effect of being infected the second or third time. Reports of decreased lung function have been reported. The second time could be much higher than 3%.

I still say we opened up in the US a month too early. Should have waited bailed the economy/citizens out and we might could have squashed Covid-19 out into extinction. Didn't have the heart for it. Here in GA we had to have our nails and hair done and to go bowling.

[PACOX]

https://v.redd.it/d1ul4b1julm51

The magnitude that this pandemic has hit is just a symptom of the human condition. Maybe it is who we are, maybe it's what we've become but directly advanced better than virus could have on its own.

I linked a video where an officer is called to what looked like a frat party in the middle of the day. House full of people breaking a gathering ordinance.

I went to college, I partied but my immediate thought is these people look like a bunch of 'fine people', fuck that they are bums, who do nothing but drink and yell 'wooo' all the time while leeching off their parents and complaining about any real work. The shit they are doing doesn't even look fun, it looks pathetic and like they are trying to cover their own demons. Rant over.

So the officer rolls up to the house. He is kind, polite, respectful. He is assertive, explains to the man why he is there, what they did wrong, why they should not be doing it, even explains to them how this behavior actually stops things from getting back to normal. The man (who is in charge of the house I guess) is clearly unremorsful, and apology is basically 'this is what I'm supposed to say in this situation even though I don't care', devoid of any ounce of intelligence or sense of responsibility. Even as the cop is like, "the university might fuck you for this" and looking for some ounce of remorse the man can't muster any.

So the cop pulls the man's idea. Runs it and boy is the cop in for a horrible surprise. The man is actually registered in a database as being positive for COVID19. As in he already had some sort of official run in somewhere and they felt it necessary to flag is this mother fucker. The rest of the video becomes hard to watch if you have any amount of empathy in your body.

The cop get out and questions the man again with this new found knowledge but you can sort of hear it in the cops voice that he is all types of hurt, disappointed, and pissed. Not only did the man and his friends knowingly hold a party while sick, they are actively spreading it, and some of them had just walked off, no masks, to spread it to others. They didn't even have the nuts to tell the officer, instead this poor guy has is now exposed. They wouldn't even had said anything to him about it had it not been for the flag in the computer so the LEO (hopefully he doesn't get sick) would taken the virus home, to he workplace, and all throughout the community without knowing any better. AND STILL the man is really only sorry his party got broken up and he was caught.

These are the people are the world who like any sort of common decency. The virus is just along for the ride. At the very least they could have had their fucked up COVID19 party without endangering countless innocent people. Society is actually broken because this mindset exists with or without COVID19.

[Eviscero]

Not true. The virus simply won't go away on its own. The only way to establish herd immunity is to have a large portion of the population either get sick or get vaccinated. Sitting at home does neither. The intention of the lockdown was never to eradicate the virus but to not overwhelm the health care system, which we successfully did. Remember "two weeks to flatten the curve"? Remember "experts" were predicting +2 million US dead if we didn't flatten the curve and 1 million dead regardless. Well that clearly didn't happen.

Yet. Have a look at this, specifically starting in Oct.:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...-ending-29.png

Our baseline level of infection is far worse. Come Fall/Winter, if people don't get smarter about masks and distancing, we are fucked. So basically, we are fucked.

- - - Updated - - -

Not true. The virus simply won't go away on its own. The only way to establish herd immunity is to have a large portion of the population either get sick or get vaccinated. Sitting at home does neither. The intention of the lockdown was never to eradicate the virus but to not overwhelm the health care system, which we successfully did. Remember "two weeks to flatten the curve"? Remember "experts" were predicting +2 million US dead if we didn't flatten the curve and 1 million dead regardless. Well that clearly didn't happen.

Yet. Have a look at this, specifically starting in Oct.:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...-ending-29.png

Our baseline level of infection is far worse. Come Fall/Winter, if people don't get smarter about masks and distancing, we are fucked. So basically, we are fucked.

Also, eat shit putting experts in quotes. You don't have the brain power to comprehend what is meant when an expert qualifies their model predictions by describing its uncertainties, don't blame them for your misinterpretations of what they say and what they don't say. Public displays of ignorance should be illegal.

[Draco-Onis]

Remember "experts" were predicting +2 million US dead if we didn't flatten the curve and 1 million dead regardless. Well that clearly didn't happen.

You obviously didn't read what they said that number was if we did nothing even though Trump did nothing governors and mayors took action that saved lives. Those scenarios are if and else statements most of the projections so far have been an under count.

[ParanoiD84]

Think we did a pretty good job about 6k dead overall mostly elderly with a 10million population and now it's like one or two dead each day.

[Puupi]

Think we did a pretty good job about 6k dead overall mostly elderly with a 10million population and now it's like one or two dead each day.

If your goal was to kill the elderly, yes, you did a good job.

[Forogil]

Yet. Have a look at this, specifically starting in Oct.:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...-ending-29.png

Eh?

What does Flu deaths from previous years in the UK, in particular Derbyshire, have to do with the covid-19 pandemic in the US?

[Granyala]

So the cop pulls the man's idea. Runs it and boy is the cop in for a horrible surprise. The man is actually registered in a database as being positive for COVID19. As in he already had some sort of official run in somewhere and they felt it necessary to flag is this mother fucker. The rest of the video becomes hard to watch if you have any amount of empathy in your body.

Depends.
Does the video establish when the man was tested and entered into the database?
I don't know how long you stay in there after being tested positive, so there's a chance the dude wasn't infectious anymore.

- - - Updated - - -

Think we did a pretty good job about 6k dead overall mostly elderly with a 10million population and now it's like one or two dead each day.

Sweden has a crude death rate of ~9/1000.
With a population of 10.23M, that would be 92.070 people dead per year.

6K COVID deaths in 6 months vs a normal death rate of 46.030.
If we extrapolate to 12K covid deaths and construct a worst case scenario of all these deaths being in addition to the normal death rate (hint: they are not, most deaths are WITH COVID not due to COVID, since officials can't be arsed to differentiate), we'd get 104.070 dead people for 2020. That would elevate the crude death rate to ~10/1000.

For historic reference: Sweden had a 9.7/1000 in 2009 and 2012. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...en-death-rate/)

Just some perspective. Yeah, you did just fine. People blow this thing way out of proportions.

[PACOX]

Depends.
Does the video establish when the man was tested and entered into the database?
I don't know how long you stay in there after being tested positive, so there's a chance the dude wasn't infectious anymore.

The man says he had been postivie for a week. It takes about two weeks at least to stop being contagious. That's assuming he was actually asymptomatic and not just experiencing very mild symptoms. There's a strong difference, one being how long someone remains contagious.

All that doesn't really matter because him and his friends (a) should have been respected the ordinance (b) should have been isolating until cleared...which is more than a week. Instead in the video there no so much as a handkerchief over their faces as they just scatter back out into the community nor did they bother to inform the cop of their condition. The man knowingly exposed the cop who was around him long enough for the interaction to be considered exposure. There's no excuse.

[Granyala]

The man says he had been postivie for a week.

There's no excuse.

Agreed.
That's pure malice then.

[Forogil]

Sweden has a crude death rate of ~9/1000.
With a population of 10.23M, that would be 92.070 people dead per year.

6K COVID deaths in 6 months vs a normal death rate of 46.030.
If we extrapolate to 12K covid deaths and construct a worst case scenario of all these deaths being in addition to the normal death rate (hint: they are not, most deaths are WITH COVID not due to COVID, since officials can't be arsed to differentiate), we'd get 104.070 dead people for 2020. That would elevate the crude death rate to ~10/1000.

Looking at current numbers it is more likely that the total for 2020 will be 6k covid deaths in Sweden.

And actually figuring out the cause of death is complicated (in such medical cases; people aren't run over by buses) - there was a previous small study in Sweden about trying to differentiate and it was roughly 15% other causes, 15% covid-19, and 70% a mix of causes involving covid-19. However, that was a small study where the persons were elderly and had more other co-morbidities than normal. In general the numbers may be different - perhaps 5% other causes, 30% of the cases it was just covid-19, and in 65% of the cases covid-19 was one significant factor.

However, a similar reduction is not relevant in many countries, such as the US, where the excess deaths are much significantly than covid-deaths, because that indicates that many covid-deaths are missed, or least that many cases where it was a contributing factor aren't counted.

For historic reference: Sweden had a 9.7/1000 in 2009 and 2012. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...en-death-rate/)

Just some perspective. Yeah, you did just fine. People blow this thing way out of proportions.