1. #19301
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Haha, I didn't even realize that.
    I'm so used to handling %ages as decimals.
    I'm used to both, but I'm used to how people try to mislead with numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Because an overall curfew would be idiotic and accomplish nothing.

    After doing research, it turns out that it's not an actual curfew.
    To be more precise: bars and restaurants have to close at 23:00 hours.
    That I can actually understand in theory, because drunkards and partyfolk hardly obey the safety measures.

    Whether it will have an actual effect in practice other than hitting the gastronomy business again remains questionable though. Time will tell but my gut tells me that it won't make a dent in the numbers because these party folks will obediently leave the restaurants at 22.00 and continue in their private residences. So the virus doesn't get spread in the evening but during the next days at work instead.
    To me it looks more like "doing something" than anything real, but time will tell.

    It could be that it makes some aware of the danger. However, another possible downside is not only that the gastronomy business will be hit, but also that there will be more crowding in the remaining ones.

  2. #19302
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    No, not really. Because, you see, the second group is following the suggestions of the first group, so they're not as "different" in this regard as you'd like to pretend. Fool yourself all you want, but there's a reason you feel like the majority disagrees with your view, and it's not because we're wrong.
    I've heard scientists that have differing opinions too, so yeah... don't pretend that there is a unified front here, especially not when it comes to political measures with questionable effectiveness (which was the initial topic).

    Don't get me wrong: I am not anti measures or anti science at all.
    Measures where they make sense: distance, masks where distance is not possible if the infection rates indicate it, masks when dealing with risk groups like nursing homes & hospitals, improved hygienic concepts.
    Protecting risk groups, seeing to it that infection rates stay under control so contact tracing remains viable, I am all for that.

    However there comes a point when you over regulate to a ridiculous degree like e.g.: in Spain where you have to wear a mask at the beach in the sea breeze. Totally idiotic and non scientific. Or (if it had been, it turned out to be a misunderstanding after all) a total curfew after 22:00 hours.

    BTW: why is my sociopath showing?
    Because I tend to put numbers into context? While a 3% increase in global mortality is certainly nothing to cheer about, it's also not something that is overly dramatic.

  3. #19303
    The dutch arent doing too well. The majority infections are caused by Teenagers that infect eachother in school and then their parents At home. Yet they want to close gyms, bars and cafes and keep schools open.

    Its allmost like they want to force a recession at this point. While the death toll was thousands in march, it currently stands at a few dozen. All lives matter but it seems like a kneejerk to force a lockdown when more people die of the flu at this point.

  4. #19304
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    I've heard scientists that have differing opinions too, so yeah... don't pretend that there is a unified front here, especially not when it comes to political measures with questionable effectiveness (which was the initial topic).
    No, actually, the original topic was what you ridiculously call "the media fear stick" and saying that it's irrational. And yes, actually, there's somewhat of a unified front of scientific thinking when it comes to the measure of precaution which is prudent in the face of this pandemic.


    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    However there comes a point when you over regulate to a ridiculous degree like e.g.: in Spain where you have to wear a mask at the beach in the sea breeze. Totally idiotic and non scientific.
    What an incredibly disingenuous oversimplification. For example, there's no law that says that if you're at a beach, you must wear a mask. What they did was remove the exemption that beaches had, and even then, only in some areas, and only in some circumstances.


    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    BTW: why is my sociopath showing?
    Because I tend to put numbers into context? While a 3% increase in global mortality is certainly nothing to cheer about, it's also not something that is overly dramatic.
    It's not a concern for the survival of the human species, no. But most of those deaths were/are avoidable. And shrugging off millions of avoidable deaths is absolutely a sign of sociopathy.

    You might as well say "it is what it is".


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  5. #19305
    Quote Originally Posted by Thereturn View Post
    The dutch arent doing too well. The majority infections are caused by Teenagers that infect eachother in school and then their parents At home. Yet they want to close gyms, bars and cafes and keep schools open.
    The dutch aren't doing great (12% of tests being positive is certainly not a good sign) - however, even if they are rising, the number of persons in hospitals seems to be a tenth of the numbers during the spring.

    But is there a source stating that the infection is primarily caused by teenagers, and that the spread occurs in schools?
    (Teenagers can meet each other after school as well, and their parents can spread it directly as well.)

    And I thought bars and cafes could be open to 22.00, since the virus only comes out at night; and that even if gyms close actual sport events can still be held.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thereturn View Post
    Its allmost like they want to force a recession at this point. While the death toll was thousands in march, it currently stands at a few dozen. All lives matter but it seems like a kneejerk to force a lockdown when more people die of the flu at this point.
    Closing schools will also impact the economy, at least if you want the students to remain home.

  6. #19306
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...th-coronavirus

    First NA case of someone getting re-infected with covid in NV, bringing the total global count up to five.

    Thankfully the numbers are still INSANELY low for this so it seems like there's minimal risk overall absent additional data, but worth noting that beating covid once does not confer immunity to the virus.

  7. #19307
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Where did you find the idea that vaccines normally produce a stronger immunity than recovery?
    I'm pretty sure that I read it somewhere, but I can't find source now, so feel free to take that statement with a grain of salt. I admit that there are many different types of vaccines, and that they hardly all have the same level of effectiveness.

    I would, however, argue that it's at least fairly true that vaccines will have a larger average rate of effectiveness than infection/recovery, simply due to the fact that some people get and recover from a virus with only a light case of infection. Such light cases may often be asymptomatic, or only lightly symptomatic, and they are being shown to produce a weaker immune response. Vaccines should produce a much more standard and average immune response across the board. So if the recovery immunity range is 3 months to 2 years, the vaccine might provide a more predictable immunity response that runs 1 to 1.5 years, perhaps.

    Again, those numbers are just guesses, and I can't find the original quote, so if you find a statement that directly contradicts it, please share it.
    I'm revisiting this because of something in the above article.

    NPR: Scientists Confirm Nevada Man Was Infected Twice With Coronavirus
    A 25-year-old was infected twice with the coronavirus earlier this year, scientists in Nevada have confirmed. It is the first confirmed case of so-called reinfection with the virus in the U.S. and the fifth confirmed reinfection case worldwide.

    The cases underscore the importance of social distancing and wearing masks even if you were previously infected with the virus, and they raise questions about how the human immune system reacts to the virus.

    ...

    The authors of the new study also raise the possibility that cases of people being infected multiple times could have implications for the efficacy of a coronavirus vaccine, since some people exposed to the virus may not be mounting sufficient immune responses to protect themselves from a second infection.

    But Iwasaki says such cases have no bearing on the efficacy of a future vaccine. The virus can deploy proteins to get in the way of the immune response, whereas a vaccine has none of those proteins, she explains. "The good thing about a vaccine is that it can induce much better immunity, a much longer lasting immunity, than the natural exposure to the the virus," she says.


    "The difference between stupidity
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  8. #19308
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    I'm revisiting this because of something in the above article.

    NPR: Scientists Confirm Nevada Man Was Infected Twice With Coronavirus
    oh god we can only hope, you know....wink wink....would be a fitting end of the last few weeks.....
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  9. #19309
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    More vaccine bad news, unfortunately...

    Johnson & Johnson pauses Covid-19 vaccine trial after 'unexplained illness'
    Drugmaker Johnson & Johnson said Monday it has paused the advanced clinical trial of its experimental coronavirus vaccine because of an unexplained illness in one of the volunteers.

    "Following our guidelines, the participant's illness is being reviewed and evaluated by the ENSEMBLE independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) as well as our internal clinical and safety physicians," the company said in a statement. ENSEMBLE is the name of the study.

    "Adverse events -- illnesses, accidents, etc. -- even those that are serious, are an expected part of any clinical study, especially large studies."

    Johnson & Johnson's Janssen vaccine arm is developing the shot. The company did not say what the unexplained illness was, but one point of clinical trials is to find out if vaccines cause dangerous side effects. Trials are stopped when they pop up while doctors check to see if the illness can be linked to the vaccine or is a coincidence.

    "Based on our strong commitment to safety, all clinical studies conducted by the Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson have prespecified guidelines. These ensure our studies may be paused if an unexpected serious adverse event (SAE) that might be related to a vaccine or study drug is reported, so there can be a careful review of all of the medical information before deciding whether to restart the study," the company said.

    "We must respect this participant's privacy. We're also learning more about this participant's illness, and it's important to have all the facts before we share additional information," the company added.

    "Serious adverse events are not uncommon in clinical trials, and the number of serious adverse events can reasonably be expected to increase in trials involving large numbers of participants. Further, as many trials are placebo-controlled, it is not always immediately apparent whether a participant received a study treatment or a placebo."

    The drugmaker said there is a "significant distinction" between a study pause and a regulatory hold on a clinical trial.

    "A study pause, in which recruitment or dosing is paused by the study sponsor, is a standard component of a clinical trial protocol," Johnson & Johnson said.

    "A regulatory hold of a clinical trial is a requirement by a regulatory health authority, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. As outlined in our transparency commitments, we proactively disclose any regulatory hold of a pivotal clinical trial."

    This is the second Phase 3 coronavirus vaccine trial to be paused in the US. AstraZeneca's vaccine trial was paused last month because of a neurological complication in a volunteer in Britain. While the trial resumed there and in other countries, it remains paused in the United States while the US Food and Drug Administration investigates.

    Johnson's Phase 3 trial started in September. It's one of six coronavirus vaccines being tested in the US, and one of four in the most advanced, Phase 3 stage. It requires just one dose of vaccine, so federal officials have said they hope testing may be competed a bit faster than other vaccines, including those being made by Moderna and Pfizer, which require two doses.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

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  10. #19310
    Merely a Setback breadisfunny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    I don't give a rats ass about your interpretation regarding his intention.
    I only care about what has been said.

    If you do not want others to quote you, stop speaking. I am on no crusade but I did observe some hilarious behavior in this thread regarding the statements of the CDC.
    you seem to not give a rat's ass about anything really except your own selfish whiny pity party about how you have it so terrible over in germany. spare us your agony. nobody cares if you can't go out and party and go bar hopping because the governments would rather save lives than go full usa. but please go ahead and keep whining about it.
    r.i.p. alleria. 1997-2017. blizzard ruined alleria forever. blizz assassinated alleria's character and appearance.
    i will never forgive you for this blizzard.

  11. #19311
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...th-coronavirus

    First NA case of someone getting re-infected with covid in NV, bringing the total global count up to five.
    Other reports that 23 have been confirmed reinfected globally, one with deadly outcome

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/1...9-reinfection/

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    I'm revisiting this because of something in the above article.

    NPR: Scientists Confirm Nevada Man Was Infected Twice With Coronavirus
    That article doesn't say that vaccines give better immunity or that they normally give better immunity than normal infection, but that they can give better immunity (which is true for HPV), but I have still not seen any statement that it's normal.

    That article from NPR also seem to contain at least two errors/misunderstandings, so I wouldn't use it as authoritative source.

  12. #19312
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    That article doesn't say that vaccines give better immunity or that they normally give better immunity than normal infection, but that they can give better immunity (which is true for HPV), but I have still not seen any statement that it's normal.

    That article from NPR also seem to contain at least two errors/misunderstandings, so I wouldn't use it as authoritative source.
    Your attempt at shitposting aside, that's not what Dr. Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunology at Yale, meant.

    An article that she co-wrote on the subject:

    NYTimes: Scared That Covid-19 Immunity Won’t Last? Don’t Be
    Within the last couple of months, several scientific studies have come out — some peer-reviewed, others not — indicating that the antibody response of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 dropped significantly within two months. The news has sparked fears that the very immunity of patients with Covid-19 may be waning fast — dampening hopes for the development of an effective and durable vaccine.

    But these concerns are confused and mistaken.

    Both our bodies’ natural immunity and immunity acquired through vaccination serve the same function, which is to inhibit a virus and prevent it from causing a disease. But they don’t always work quite the same way.

    And so a finding that naturally occurring antibodies in some Covid-19 patients are fading doesn’t actually mean very much for the likely efficacy of vaccines under development. Science, in this case, can be more effective than nature.

    The human immune system has evolved to serve two functions: expediency and precision. Hence, we have two types of immunity: innate immunity, which jumps into action within hours, sometimes just minutes, of an infection; and adaptive immunity, which develops over days and weeks.

    Almost all the cells in the human body can detect a viral infection, and when they do, they call on our white blood cells to deploy a defensive response against the infectious agent.

    When our innate immune response is successful at containing that pathogen, the infection is resolved quickly and, generally, without many symptoms. In the case of more sustained infections, though, it’s our adaptive immune system that kicks in to offer us protection.

    The adaptive immune system consists of two types of white blood cells, called T and B cells, that detect molecular details specific to the virus and, based on that, mount a targeted response to it.

    A virus causes disease by entering cells in the human body and hijacking their genetic machinery so as to reproduce itself again and again: It turns its hosts into viral factories.

    T cells detect and kill those infected cells. B cells make antibodies, a kind of protein that binds to the viral particles and blocks them from entering our cells; this prevents the replication of the virus and stops the infection in its tracks.

    The body then stores the T and B cells that helped eliminate the infection, in case it might need them in the future to fight off the same virus again. These so-called memory cells are the main agents of long-term immunity.

    The antibodies produced in response to a common seasonal coronavirus infection last for about a year. But the antibodies generated by a measles infection last, and provide protection, for a lifetime.

    Yet it is also the case that with other viruses the amount of antibodies in the blood peaks during an infection and drops after the infection has cleared, often within a few months: This is the fact that has some people worried about Covid-19, but it doesn’t mean what it might seem.

    That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response.

    Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand.

    And that is why we should be hopeful about the prospects of a vaccine for Covid-19.

    A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection, generating memory T and B cells that can then provide long-lasting protection in the people who are vaccinated. Yet the immunity created by vaccines differs from the immunity created by a natural infection in several important ways.

    Virtually all viruses that infect humans contain in their genomes blueprints for producing proteins that help them evade detection by the innate immune system. For example, SARS-CoV-2 appears to have a gene dedicated to silencing the innate immune system.


    Among the viruses that have become endemic in humans, some have also figured out ways to dodge the adaptive immune system: H.I.V.-1 mutates rapidly; herpes viruses deploy proteins that can trap and incapacitate antibodies.

    Thankfully, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to have evolved any such tricks yet — suggesting that we still have an opportunity to stem its spread and the pandemic by pursuing a relatively straightforward vaccine approach.

    Vaccines come in different flavors — they can be based on killed or live attenuated viral material, nucleic acids or recombinant proteins. But all vaccines consist of two main components: an antigen and an adjuvant.

    The antigen is the part of the virus we want the adaptive immune response to react to and target. The adjuvant is an agent that mimics the infection and helps jump-start the immune response.

    One beauty of vaccines — and one of their great advantages over our body’s natural reaction to infections — is that their antigens can be designed to focus the immune response on a virus’s Achilles heel (whatever that may be).

    Another advantage is that vaccines allow for different kinds and different doses of adjuvants — and so, for calibration and fine-tuning that can help boost and lengthen immune responses.

    The immune response generated against a virus during natural infection is, to some degree, at the mercy of the virus itself. Not so with vaccines.

    Since many viruses evade the innate immune system, natural infections sometimes do not result in robust or long-lasting immunity. The human papillomavirus is one of them, which is why it can cause chronic infections. The papillomavirus vaccine triggers a far better antibody response to its viral antigen than does a natural HPV infection: It is almost 100 percent effective in preventing HPV infection and disease.


    Not only does vaccination protect against infection and disease; it also blocks viral transmission — and, if sufficiently widespread, can help confer so-called herd immunity to a population.

    What proportion of individuals in a given population needs to be immune to a new virus so that the whole group is, in effect, protected depends on the virus’s basic reproduction number — broadly speaking: the average number of people that a single infected person will, in turn, infect.

    For measles, which is highly contagious, more than 90 percent of a population must be immunized in order for unvaccinated individuals to also be protected. For Covid-19, the estimated figure — which is unsettled, understandably — ranges between 43 percent and 66 percent.

    Given the severe consequences of Covid-19 for many older patients, as well as the disease’s unpredictable course and consequences for the young, the only safe way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccination. That, combined with the fact that SARS-CoV-2 appears not to have yet developed a mechanism to evade detection by our adaptive immune system, is ample reason to double down on efforts to find a vaccine fast.

    So do not be alarmed by reports about Covid-19 patients’ dropping antibody counts; those are irrelevant to the prospects of finding a viable vaccine.

    Remember instead that more than 165 vaccine candidates already are in the pipeline, some showing promising early trial results.

    And start thinking about how best to ensure that when that vaccine comes, it will be distributed efficiently and equitably.

    Akiko Iwasaki is the Waldemar Von Zedtwitz Professor in the Department of Immunobiology and a Professor in the Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology at Yale. Ruslan Medzhitov is a Sterling Professor in the Department of Immunobiology at Yale School of Medicine. Both are investigators at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  13. #19313
    when someone says covid will go away after election day i remind them that joe biden isnt inaugerated until january 21st to take care of the virus

  14. #19314
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    It's not a concern for the survival of the human species, no. But most of those deaths were/are avoidable.
    Considering that most of these deaths occurred while we were taking measures, I'd like to disagree on that one.

    Not every country is like the USA and made a mess of things.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Closing schools will also impact the economy, at least if you want the students to remain home.
    Closing Schools, esp. elementary ones, is the biggest impact you can have on the economy, because you force parents to stay at home too.
    It makes sense that they close them last.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Your attempt at shitposting aside, that's not what Dr. Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunology at Yale, meant.
    An article that she co-wrote on the subject:
    NYTimes: Scared That Covid-19 Immunity Won’t Last? Don’t Be
    Interesting stuff, thanks for sharing!

  15. #19315
    so 2 of the 4 vaccines are paused, though I've read it's pretty rare thing to pause on phase 3, though this corona is very weird virus that we still don't know everything about it. Not exactly worrying but anyone being optimistic and expecting a vaccine this year should probably curb those.

  16. #19316
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Your attempt at shitposting aside, that's not what Dr. Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunology at Yale, meant.
    Projecting much?

    What I stated was that the NPR article wasn't an authoritative source, and by writing "what she meant..." that gives a quite different explanation from the NPR-article you merely confirm my statement.

    My statement is still that I haven't seen a source stating that vaccines normally give a longer-lasting (or otherwise better) immunity than infections.

    What she is saying is that vaccines can be more targeted, and having many candidates certainly increases that hope, but it's still not clear.
    For HPV it gives better protection (which both I and professor Iwasaki give as examples). For the Flu vaccines it seem to give shorter lasting protection (that's why you shouldn't get the flu shot too early each year), and even though researches are working on a universal flu vaccine it has so far not been successful.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Closing Schools, esp. elementary ones, is the biggest impact you can have on the economy, because you force parents to stay at home too.
    It makes sense that they close them last.
    True, and the same issue mean that it not only impacts the economy at large - but also the health-care sector, and it has long term effects since lack of education and socialization can give long-lasting problems that aren't easy to correct afterwards (the mind loses plasticity).

    Closing pubs does not seem to cause similar long term problems, but it also seems as though the alcohol-restrictions are a bit odd - as if there's a moral crusade going on. And I still don't understand why six is the magic number; as it seems Italy is now having their own 'rule of six'.

  17. #19317
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    when someone says covid will go away after election day i remind them that joe biden isnt inaugerated until january 21st to take care of the virus
    It will... there is infinite amount if time after the election.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
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  18. #19318
    So, just had another of those "it's just a flu" conversations with an American. The funny bit, that person claimed the "fearmongering" of the next pandemic is just around the corner because the CDC is basically controlled by communists that want to destabilise the West... And China is going to release the next virus, too...

    Is that a common thought in the US? I can't tell anymore...
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  19. #19319
    Quote Originally Posted by Winter Blossom View Post
    It’s daunting but I think most of us knew that we were going to have a surge again this winter.
    I've heard it reported in March already. I'm pretty sure I mentioned it here somewhere.

    Edit: God, this forum... posts are all kinds of whacked and out of order.
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  20. #19320
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    The funny bit, that person claimed the "fearmongering" of the next pandemic is just around the corner because the CDC is basically controlled by communists that want to destabilise the West...
    The CDC...
    And the FDA...
    And the HHS...
    And the ECDC...
    And the EMA...
    And the WHO...

    And their conspiracy don't even stop in organizations but in peer-review publications too:

    and the Lancet...
    and the New England Journal of Medicine...
    and Nature...
    and the Anals of Internal Medicine...

    Fuck! we are surronded by communists.Communists everywhere....In fact: fuck it!, everyone that paints an ugly picture: communist too.

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