1. #19501
    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    Lol, so much Sweden bashing here.
    The way the corona deaths in Sweden are calculated is if a near-death 90-year-old had several diseases along with corona and dies, they are added to the corona death pool. Even if they would have died from one of their other diseases.

    There's also a reason why Sweden is often wrongly called "the rape capital of the world", while in fact, it isn't. It just calculates rape differently.
    ...isn't that how literally all countries are reporting deaths? You can have multiple comorbidities that make you more vulnerable to the virus that would have not otherwise killed a person without the complicating factor of covid.

    This is a common argument amongst the conservative crowd that tries to downplay the number of deaths caused by the virus, and it's an argument that no doctors or scientists have found much weight in so far.

  2. #19502
    In Holland the first studies have shown that the majority of infections, even after lockdown are primarily happening in migrant populations (50% more than natives). Reason most likely being weddings and other cultural events while not upholding the rules local authorities put in place.

    Not to derail this but im curious as to how those numbers hold up in other european countries.
    Last edited by Thereturn; 2020-09-28 at 09:12 PM.

  3. #19503
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    ...isn't that how literally all countries are reporting deaths? You can have multiple comorbidities that make you more vulnerable to the virus that would have not otherwise killed a person without the complicating factor of covid.
    It's not that simple - most countries under-report the deaths by various amounts.

    Whether that is because comorbidity-cases are just ignored - or whether no-one has checked if the dead person had covid-19 isn't clear.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    This is a common argument amongst the conservative crowd that tries to downplay the number of deaths caused by the virus, and it's an argument that no doctors or scientists have found much weight in so far.
    Context matters.

    It's not credible in the US, since the number of excess deaths exceed the number of covid-deaths by a 10-20% (can't remember exact numbers).
    It's clearly not credible in the capital Moscow where excess deaths are three times the number of covid-deaths.
    And globally it's similar; there's a reason the Economist estimated that perhaps an additional million have died unreported of covid; putting the total at 2 millions dead.
    It may be a minor factor in Sweden where covid-deaths have exceeded excess deaths (but it can also be random variations).

    In western Europe it seems that Germany, France, Denmark, Norway and some more seem to have correct numbers; whereas Spain, Italy, uk, the Netherlands and Portugal seems to have under-reported covid-deaths.
    In S. America and Africa it also seems as if there is severe under-reporting.

    Obviously some will argue that all those deaths are due to the lockdowns; very doubtful.
    Last edited by Forogil; 2020-09-28 at 09:27 PM.

  4. #19504
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Washington (né California)
    Posts
    5,156
    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    Lol, so much Sweden bashing here.
    The way the corona deaths in Sweden are calculated is if a near-death 90-year-old had several diseases along with corona and dies, they are added to the corona death pool. Even if they would have died from one of their other diseases.
    And yet, the fact that Sweden's excess mortality is almost the exact total of their COVID-19 deaths indicates that no, they wouldn't have died from one of their other diseases during this pandemic so far.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  5. #19505
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    And yet, the fact that Sweden's excess mortality is almost the exact total of their COVID-19 deaths indicates that no, they wouldn't have died from one of their other diseases during this pandemic so far.
    You are confusing Sweden with Germany:
    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

    Sweden Mar 18th-Aug 11th 5,787 covid-deaths, 5,340 excess deaths; so 7% over-reporting.
    Germany Mar 18th-Jul 28th 9,115 covid-deaths, 9,193 excess deaths; spot on.
    United States Mar 8th-Aug 1st, 152,611 covid-deaths, 214,812 excess deaths; 40% under-reporting (depends on how you count percentages etc).

    Obviously excess deaths are an estimate, and they naturally vary between years - so it depends on the exact model used.

  6. #19506
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Washington (né California)
    Posts
    5,156
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    You are confusing Sweden with Germany
    What a petty, condescending presumption. Shocking.

    And wrong.

    Sweden was running about 5-10% under the 5-year average mortality this year prior to the pandemic. So what you're calling a 7% over-report when simply comparing it to said 5-year average is quite likely to be close to "spot on" in terms of actual real-life numbers. You'd also note, if you were being honest, that I added an "almost" in there.

    But nothing in your pointless, hastily-interjected pedantry changes the salient point, which is that if these people were so on death's door as to have imminently died anyway, then there would be no excess death. Whether said excess is 5900 or 5400 is moot to that discussion.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  7. #19507
    Quote Originally Posted by JammEr21 View Post
    This coronavirus is the most awful thing ever, I hope that everything is going to okay soon
    Not with Trump at the helm.

  8. #19508
    The Unstoppable Force PACOX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    ██████
    Posts
    23,078
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola.../#6d977a7b313a

    I wonder if some of these people are going to look back and think they actively became a vector for the virus and may have spread it to others - for a crappy party.

    I hope by some miracle none of these people get sick, for their sake and for others.

    Resident Cosplay Progressive

  9. #19509
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Arkon-III
    Posts
    19,603
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    In western Europe it seems that Germany, France, Denmark, Norway and some more seem to have correct numbers
    Considering that hardly anyone is dying of C-19 these days in Germany, there isn't much to underreport in the first place.

  10. #19510
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Sweden was running about 5-10% under the 5-year average mortality this year prior to the pandemic. So what you're calling a 7% over-report when simply comparing it to said 5-year average is quite likely to be close to "spot on" in terms of actual real-life numbers.
    You didn't think this through at all, as your numbers weaken your case.

    Variations in mortality can be due to long-terms trends in life expectancy, but thinking that Sweden for unknown reasons increased the life expectancy by a couple of years during the last year seems pretty far-fetched.

    There are also statistical fluctuations. If we assume that deaths are uncorrelated: the standard deviation on a yearly basis should be about 300 deaths; and for the given time-period about 200 deaths; whereas the over-reporting was 447. For Germany the difference is likely within a standard deviation.

    In reality the deaths during different parts of the year are correlated; intuitively it's positively correlated on a short (weekly/monthly) basis and negatively on a longer basis - and looking at excess deaths for previous years in a number of countries seem to confirm that.

    The reason for the short-time positive correlation is that some of the deaths are due to extreme weather and non-covid infectious diseases (that cause multiple deaths at the same time); whereas the longer term negative correlation is in part that some people are close to death and if they don't die this month they will die the next one.

    Which means that the negative excess deaths at the beginning of the year in Sweden that you bring up would in fact naturally lead to more excess deaths during the rest of the year; i.e. the exact opposite of the point you were trying to make.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    You'd also note, if you were being honest, that I added an "almost" in there.
    The phrase was "almost the exact"; and you stated in bold that people wouldn't have died from other causes.

    That statement wasn't only without a shred of evidence, but actually when the evidence point in the other direction.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    But nothing in your pointless, hastily-interjected pedantry changes the salient point,
    You were the one that tried to "correct" someone, and you're right that the pedantry doesn't change that salient point.

    The salient point is that the previous poster is correct. However, the overall effect is minor - i.e. perhaps 7% over-reporting in Sweden; neither 100% nor 0%.

    I'm not interested in running around in circles discussing your "facts" and your allegations of "pedantry".

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Considering that hardly anyone is dying of C-19 these days in Germany, there isn't much to underreport in the first place.
    It was the total not the monthly; but even then you are correct for Germany, Denmark and Norway.

    For France 30k deaths compared to 600k deaths normally in a year is significant. But in perspective it's just a 5% increase in deaths, or 0.05% of the population - so far.

    However, the main point was to contrast this with other countries: it's not merely the US that is/have been under-reporting covid-deaths but also Spain, Italy, uk, the Netherlands (and of course countries elsewhere as well; the Economist listed severe under-reporting in latin America).

    That's why I find the fascination with the reported numbers is so odd. We have globally reached 33 557 611 reported cases, and 1 006 467 reported deaths; and perhaps another unreported million deaths and likely more than one or more hundred million cases.
    Last edited by Forogil; 2020-09-29 at 07:05 AM.

  11. #19511
    The Lightbringer Strawberry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Sweden/Yugoslavia
    Posts
    3,336
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    And yet, the fact that Sweden's excess mortality is almost the exact total of their COVID-19 deaths indicates that no, they wouldn't have died from one of their other diseases during this pandemic so far.
    I disagree.

  12. #19512
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Arkon-III
    Posts
    19,603
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    That's why I find the fascination with the reported numbers is so odd. We have globally reached 33 557 611 reported cases, and 1 006 467 reported deaths; and perhaps another unreported million deaths and likely more than one or more hundred million cases.
    IIRC the dark figure is sth around x10, so I'd expect around 300M had the bug at this point.

  13. #19513
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    the other
    Posts
    58,334
    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    I disagree.
    Then what is causing the major spikes in deaths? If you disagree, you need to explain why there are death spikes across the world.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  14. #19514
    The Unstoppable Force Orange Joe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    001100010010011110100001101101110011
    Posts
    20,323
    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    Lol, so much Sweden bashing here.
    The way the corona deaths in Sweden are calculated is if a near-death 90-year-old had several diseases along with corona and dies, they are added to the corona death pool. Even if they would have died from one of their other diseases.

    There's also a reason why Sweden is often wrongly called "the rape capital of the world", while in fact, it isn't. It just calculates rape differently.
    This is how it's done with pretty much everything. If a person with terminal cancer that is due to die in 3 hours dies in a sudden car wreck his death goes down to the car wreck.
    I have a fan. Seems he was permabanned.
    Yo, don't mind my "street talk"

  15. #19515
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    IIRC the dark figure is sth around x10, so I'd expect around 300M had the bug at this point.
    That seems reasonable, but the dark figure varies - so it's hard to know.

    One would hope it is lower now in Europe and N. America, but I would expect the dark figure is even worse in India, parts of latin America (like Brazil), and I have no idea of Africa - so it could be a lot worse.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Orange Joe View Post
    This is how it's done with pretty much everything. If a person with terminal cancer that is due to die in 3 hours dies in a sudden car wreck his death goes down to the car wreck.
    Except the car-crash looks like a red herring - similar as the "run over by a bus": people with a few hours left to live due to severe diseases don't normally die in car wrecks; basically they are not that mobile - and I surely hope they are not driving the car.

    And people dying with disease doesn't always have such a clear-cut reason as 'car crash'. There was a report (posted a few months ago) that studied people that had died with covid in Sweden (done by some physician or medical examiner). The result was 15% died solely of covid, 15% died solely of other causes - and 70% died due to a combination of covid and other causes; but it was a small non-representative sample (older and with other health problems; so they had a high probability of dying even without covid) and in the general population covid would more likely to be the cause of death.

  16. #19516
    Fucking rat eating chinese plagued the world with their shit.
    Fucking cunts.
    Mods still busy sucking chinese cock?
    Hey fucking retard ban me again, fucking son of a bitch. Fuck your Chinese cock loving mother


    [Infracted]
    Last edited by Radux; 2020-09-29 at 07:02 PM.

  17. #19517
    Merely a Setback breadisfunny's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    flying the exodar...into the sun.
    Posts
    25,871
    Quote Originally Posted by sabe View Post
    garbage.
    oh look it's back again....

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    I disagree.
    do you have anything to back that up other than your feels?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola.../#6d977a7b313a

    I wonder if some of these people are going to look back and think they actively became a vector for the virus and may have spread it to others - for a crappy party.

    I hope by some miracle none of these people get sick, for their sake and for others.
    on another note: imo he should have gotten 5 years prison time.
    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...f-covid-order/
    Last edited by breadisfunny; 2020-09-29 at 06:56 PM.
    r.i.p. alleria. 1997-2017. blizzard ruined alleria forever. blizz assassinated alleria's character and appearance.
    i will never forgive you for this blizzard.

  18. #19518
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    Then what is causing the major spikes in deaths? If you disagree, you need to explain why there are death spikes across the world.
    politics and the people who dismiss science.

    they are causing thousands of people a day to face palm themselves to death.

    SEE not covid related!!



    /s
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  19. #19519
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Arkon-III
    Posts
    19,603
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    That seems reasonable, but the dark figure varies - so it's hard to know.
    One would hope it is lower now in Europe and N. America,
    Actually I would like it to be higher. ( # of Infections not death count ofc, although I am sure the latter is severely underreported in less developed countries)
    Higher = better because it means that the virus is basically less dangerous.

  20. #19520
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    the other
    Posts
    58,334
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    politics and the people who dismiss science.

    they are causing thousands of people a day to face palm themselves to death.

    SEE not covid related!!



    /s
    If it’s not covid, we need to get to the bottom of it... there maybe a pandemic raging, while we are distracted by covid. /facepalm
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •