1. #19601
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    The decline of science and knowledge during the medieval period of Europe is well documented, sure. The Romans were using astronomical seasons centuries before.
    Based on what sources?

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    You're just arguing for argument's sake here; nobody mentioned "all civilizations". Most of Europe (especially western Europe) uses astronomical seasons, as does North America (who got it from Europe).
    I don't see that it's that clear in Europe outside of France.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Yes, the ancient Romans once celebrated mid-March, AKA the ides of March, or March 15th, as the beginning of the new year, not the beginning of March. The full moon at the ides of March was an easy way for everyone to distinguish the date.
    Ok, let me see if I understand this: the year started in the middle of a month at the full moon, which means that it was based on the equinoxes that aren't aligned to the lunar cycle (and later it therefore started on the vernal equinox officially on March 25th; not March 15th). (And their calendars were so unstable with respect to everything that I don't see how that strengthens your argument.)

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    None of which matters to the actual topic at hand. I'm not arguing that the astronomical season method is better, merely that it's prevalent in most of Europe and North America, at least, and likely is the case for 95%+ of the visitors of this forum.
    And I'm merely stating that the above is incorrect. It's not better, and it's not that prevalent in Europe, and it's therefore frequently causing problems on these forums.

    And as previously indicated I tentatively believe that it gained ground due to the french revolution, which inspired the US.

    In most parts of the world the dates aren't that important - if people say that you get commonly get the cold, flu, and possibly covid-19 during fall and winter, they mean roughly that period - not some exact dates; same with harvest in traditional agrarian societies.
    Last edited by Forogil; 2020-09-20 at 10:19 PM.

  2. #19602
    Can you stop talking about calendar? It is getting ridiculous.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  3. #19603
    Where I live, Western Australia, a lot of people are finding that using the indigenous Australians 6 season calendar for the region works much better. Turns out pasting the European 4 season calendar doesn't work for local conditions so much.

    But back to the virus - The US has passed 200K dead (though it is probably much higher), world deaths are rapidly closing in on 1 million (but once again there is a lot of under reporting of excess deaths) and Europe is picking up steam for its second wave just in time for flu season.

    Meanwhile the outbreak in Melbourne seems to have been brought under control thanks to a lockdown. Lot of people were not happy, but going from 700 cases a day at its peak back to around a dozen shows that it works. Sadly a lot of people died in the meantime.

    So, yes, lockdowns work. Very effectively.

    What I find so confusing is that so-called 'patriots' who would supposedly do anything for their country are refusing to do anything to help their country.

  4. #19604
    And meanwhile the world passed 30 million reported cases, actually at 31.2 now; and is headed for 1 million reported deaths in about a week.
    The US passed 7 million reported cases, and as previous posted stated 200 k reported deaths.

    And protests against lockdowns in Madrid protest that they target poor neighbourhoods; we will see how this fall and winter turn out.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And protests against lockdowns in Madrid protest that they target poor neighbourhoods; we will see how this fall and winter turn out.

    And CDC updated their guidelines (compared to a few days ago - thx wayback machine): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...d-spreads.html

    They now added:
    It is possible that COVID-19 may spread through the droplets and airborne particles that are formed when a person who has COVID-19 coughs, sneezes, sings, talks, or breathes. There is growing evidence that droplets and airborne particles can remain suspended in the air and be breathed in by others, and travel distances beyond 6 feet (for example, during choir practice, in restaurants, or in fitness classes). In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk.
    And they don't call it social distancing but use the term physical distancing (while linking to social distancing guidelines) and write:
    During times of increased physical distancing, it is still important to maintain social connections and care for your mental health.
    WHO switched to calling it physical distancing for this reason back sometimes during the spring.

    They now add that
    Masks should not replace other prevention measures.
    And they finally figured out that the following seems like a good idea:
    Stay home and isolate from others when sick.
    Use air purifiers to help reduce airborne germs in indoor spaces.
    I find it amazing that so many of these changes weren't done earlier.

  5. #19605
    I will be curious to see what the UK government announces this week. I see that the scientific advisors are getting very worried about this second wave and the situation we could be in come mid October. I would still be surprised if we entered another full lockdown, though it is being floated.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gelannerai View Post


    Remember, legally no one sane takes Tucker Carlson seriously.

  6. #19606
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tehealadin View Post
    I will be curious to see what the UK government announces this week. I see that the scientific advisors are getting very worried about this second wave and the situation we could be in come mid October. I would still be surprised if we entered another full lockdown, though it is being floated.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    Hmm lots of positive test results but your death count does not seem to respond at all. Are you sure you are having a second wave?
    To initiate a lockdown would be rather ... well hilarious at this point. You can do that one people actually start dying.

  7. #19607
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Why keep people in fear if the threat has seemingly been neutered to that degree? I don't get it.

    No I think it has to be sth else going on. If all our treatment were so super effective, politicians wouldn't take the hit to the economy for nothing.

  8. #19608
    This whole situation is quite confusing, and all because we do not have complete information that would give us an understanding,

  9. #19609
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziarry View Post
    This whole situation is quite confusing, and all because we do not have complete information that would give us an understanding,
    I agree. We have taken available data for granted for so long, it's quite scary to see what happens when we do not have said data.

  10. #19610
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    Hmm lots of positive test results but your death count does not seem to respond at all. Are you sure you are having a second wave?
    To initiate a lockdown would be rather ... well hilarious at this point. You can do that one people actually start dying.
    It is heartening that the death rate isn't soaring. I think we are in a second wave, in terms of the infection rate is going up and is comparable to where we were in early May, I am not sure in order to be considered a wave that the deaths need to match. If so then my bad. This is the first though I've heard of a wave being defined this way.

    Like I said, I would be very surprised if they did initiate a full lockdown, some are pushing for it, but so long as people aren't dying, and to the best of my knowledge the hospital admissions aren't severe, so I'd agree that going down that road now might be a bit premature (at best). Still curious as to how they will respond, I think they have gotten a lot of calls wrong, any attempt to initiate a full lockdown might be met with more resistance this time round, especially as the government set a precedence that it doesn't apply to the top people, only the little people. Not sure I trust them to make the right call.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gelannerai View Post


    Remember, legally no one sane takes Tucker Carlson seriously.

  11. #19611
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Except you weren't expecting them. Not only did you say that the world had peaked, which would mean that the world's cases were going to decline (which they didn't), but you specifically stated several times that you predicted that you didn't think they would go back up past the July mark.

    Let's roll the tape yet again, shall we?
    Yes. let's. My posts say the opposite of what you claim they say, again. Your disingenuous gaslighting attempts just don't work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    After a week of small decline we had a week of small increase, the original peak was proven to be local and on August 14 was exceeded by 1.1%
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Now, was this the final peak? Who knows, with back-to-school cases could pick up again.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    People of Donetsk in general are shifting more and more towards denier stance. We're back to school too. How long would it take for cases to increase, several weeks?
    See, I just proved that you're a gaslighting liar. I admitted that the peak was local, and I was discussing the autumn rise before it happened.

    Back-to-school is causing a rise, but it's not a full-fledged wave, it's one of the contributing factors to the current situation. I'll give you one thing though - globally we indeed have one long wave instead of two separate ones.

    Also, as you quoted me, India is carrying the world now. Your graph of "world minus the big three" was not statistically demonstrative as you like to say, not a rise. Graph of "world minus India", which you're hiding, will show you something you won't like.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  12. #19612
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    And CDC updated their guidelines (compared to a few days ago - thx wayback machine): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...d-spreads.html
    They took it down to "refine the language". Though it is good to see that they are repeating what I have said from the start, masks should not replace other measures. Though, if its hanging in the air, really shouldn't be for schools being open. I know a few who have dined in at restaurants and I think its crazy. The virus hangs out in the air. 1 person is all it would take to infect the entire place since aerosols can live for awhile in the air with poor vents. Our cases are still rising, as are our deaths. Yet this country is wanting to open right back up.

    I really hope that this virus doesn't evolve to get more deadly. If it does, we are SoL
    Quote Originally Posted by scorpious1109 View Post
    Why the hell would you wait till after you did this to confirm the mortality rate of such action?

  13. #19613
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tehealadin View Post
    I think we are in a second wave, in terms of the infection rate is going up and is comparable to where we were in early May, I am not sure in order to be considered a wave that the deaths need to match. If so then my bad. This is the first though I've heard of a wave being defined this way.
    The question is one of the correlation between # of tests performed and %age of these tests that give a positive result, since tests do have a rate of false positives.
    If you have a gazillion tests done you will find a lot of positives (both false and real), indicating a second wave, while the actual %age of positive tests (and subsequently %age of infections in the populations) are near constant.

    You can see that nicely in Germany since mid May. We are below 1% positive test results. So if deaths and ICU admissions aren't rising (like the do in e.g.: Israel, these guys have an actual second wave), then it begs the question if we are measuring infections or are operating at the accuracy limit of our tests.

  14. #19614
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    Hmm lots of positive test results but your death count does not seem to respond at all. Are you sure you are having a second wave?
    To initiate a lockdown would be rather ... well hilarious at this point. You can do that one people actually start dying.
    Well, the deaths are lagging behind infections - and even the deaths seem to be rising - but the numbers are small.
    If we blindly extrapolate it will take about 2 months until the deaths reach similar number as in April (even though the UK government says mid-October which is one month away).

    The likely explanation for the difference is a combination of a number of factors: younger people are infected now who are less likely to die, more testing detects milder cases, and better treatment increases survival rate.

    But I agree with you that it seems they could wait and see a few weeks with the restrictions - assuming they know they will be effective, but there might be additional factors or they simply don't know if they will be effective. To me it also looks as if the measures a few weeks ago were designed to increase the rate of infection (with special cash to encourage people to eat out).

    However, looking at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing it seems that the percentage of positive cases are increasing in the UK, from a low of 0.4% to 1.4%; and the UK has only increased number of tests per thousand from 2.5 in August to about 3.4 now (actually quite high internationally - even though Denmark has been above 8). One explanation is thus that the UK cannot test more and that's why the restrictions are imposed already now.
    Last edited by Forogil; 2020-09-21 at 09:45 PM.

  15. #19615
    Herald of the Titans Vorkreist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Aye, lets just hope that overeager politicians don't jump on one of the "false starts" and make vaccination mandatory.
    I find the above scenario more scary than the virus itself, tbh.
    I find the scenario in which the pandemic is prolonged needlessly for an extra year because of the "bruh bill gates puts 5G in the vaccines" or the milder version of "bruh I'm gonna get it last I need to be soooper sure its safe" more scary.

  16. #19616
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vorkreist View Post
    I find the scenario in which the pandemic is prolonged needlessly for an extra year because of the "bruh bill gates puts 5G in the vaccines" or the milder version of "bruh I'm gonna get it last I need to be soooper sure its safe" more scary.
    Supposedly at the current predicted spread rate we need 50% to 75% to get a population at herd immunity. That's 50 or 75% either vaccinated or gotten it and gotten better.
    The problem is we are not 100% sure what happens if you get it a second time. How long till you can get it again.

    I was more concerned that we started opening things a month too soon. We should have rode it out another month maybe two and could have squash this into extinction but did not have the heart/stomach. We were too worried about getting our hair/nails done and to go bowling.

  17. #19617
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vorkreist View Post
    I find the scenario in which the pandemic is prolonged needlessly for an extra year because of the "bruh bill gates puts 5G in the vaccines" or the milder version of "bruh I'm gonna get it last I need to be soooper sure its safe" more scary.
    If the virus has a low probability of being nasty (that's the case for young people), the vaccine better have a much lower probability of complications.
    Else you will do more damage with your "remedy" than the virus does.

  18. #19618
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    If the virus has a low probability of being nasty (that's the case for young people), the vaccine better have a much lower probability of complications.
    Else you will do more damage with your "remedy" than the virus does.
    It has a low probability of death for young people. The occurrence of problems from it, whether damage to lungs, heart, brain etc is much higher. And they are just the serious problems, not counting lesser problems like hair loss and loss of smell.

  19. #19619
    Scarab Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    Can you stop talking about calendar? It is getting ridiculous.
    Agreed. The whole calendar thing is an enormous red herring in the first place; the poster who brought it up was wrong regardless of any calendar interpretation, and I see no reason to continue to follow bad-faith posters down an unimportant tangent simply because they choose to distract from bullshit positions. I got suckered into responding to one meaningless tangent post, and that's enough.



    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Yes. let's. My posts say the opposite of what you claim they say, again.
    No, lol, sorry. The posts of yours that I highlighted are from 8/7 and 8/9. The posts that you quoted are from 8/24 and 9/3, and are simply examples of the furious backpedaling and goalpost-shifting you've sadly engaged in, rather than admit your manifold errors. I mean, this is the behavior that I specifically called you out on it in my last post:
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    This is you saying that you didn't even think that it would what you call a "local peak". It's clear from this that you thought cases would continue to decline. You specifically predicted that that would be the case, despite your hilarious attempts later to backpedal from this obviously false position.
    You keep attempting to change your story without admitting that you've been consistently wrong. It's hilarious, but in a sad way.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Your disingenuous gaslighting attempts just don't work. See, I just proved that you're a gaslighting liar. I admitted that the peak was local, and I was discussing the autumn rise before it happened.
    Nope, all you've proved, yet again, is that you will deflect legitimate criticism with ad hominems. But your goalpost-changing is a matter of public record here. Regardless, there was no peak, and the cases have continued to rise, so you're still objectively wrong.

    Lest you forget, you also said this on the same backpedaling post you quoted:
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Which was exactly my point in the original quoted post, and remains true. Daily cases have peaked and are not growing anymore, it happened a month ago.
    Skipped over that part, didn't you? That's because, despite your attempt now to claim that you were somehow calling the incipient increase starting on 8/24, you were simply doubling down on your original ridiculous claim.

    And by the time you made the last of your quoted posts on 9/3, the case count average had already risen 14k in the previous 10 days and was continuing to set new records each day.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Back-to-school is causing a rise, but it's not a full-fledged wave, it's one of the contributing factors to the current situation. I'll give you one thing though - globally we indeed have one long wave instead of two separate ones.
    And with only one peak per wave, you should agree that we haven't yet reached the peak. I don't understand why this is so difficult for you.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Also, as you quoted me, India is carrying the world now.
    Actually, I quoted you stating that you specifically didn't think India would carry the world, so...


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Your graph of "world minus the big three" was not statistically demonstrative as you like to say, not a rise.
    Um... yes, lol, it is:




    From 7/31 to even your goalpost-shifted 8/31 "summer deadline", it went up over 8%. It's gone up another 15% since 9/1. That's an increase of over 24% since your so-called "world peak".

    It's becoming readily apparent that you can't read graphs...


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Graph of "world minus India", which you're hiding, will show you something you won't like.
    No, the graph of world minus just India is meaningless. It's also ridiculously hypocritical for you to try and prove something by imagining a world minus India scenario, while also having attempted to claim that I shouldn't show a graphic of the world minus the US and Brazil.

    The amusing thing is that I, in an attempt to be fair, also removed India in addition to the other two in order to show that the world minus the relatively balanced top three has been steadily increasing throughout.

    Just as the world as a whole has, with some minor, temporary fluctuations.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  20. #19620
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    You can see that nicely in Germany since mid May. We are below 1% positive test results. So if deaths and ICU admissions aren't rising (like the do in e.g.: Israel, these guys have an actual second wave), then it begs the question if we are measuring infections or are operating at the accuracy limit of our tests.
    If we look at the positive numbers, https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing, it's not only Israel (8.7%) that has gotten new problems compared to July, but also Spain (11.8% - up from 1.5%) and France (5.5% up from 1.3%), and the US still has problems (4.8% down from 7.3%, but possibly increasing again). They might all also have problems with ramping up testing further. Not like Germany that has managed to keep the rate steady.

    Italy might also be headed the wrong way, but between 5% and UK-numbers.

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