1. #18841
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    And CDC updated their guidelines (compared to a few days ago - thx wayback machine): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...d-spreads.html
    They took it down to "refine the language". Though it is good to see that they are repeating what I have said from the start, masks should not replace other measures. Though, if its hanging in the air, really shouldn't be for schools being open. I know a few who have dined in at restaurants and I think its crazy. The virus hangs out in the air. 1 person is all it would take to infect the entire place since aerosols can live for awhile in the air with poor vents. Our cases are still rising, as are our deaths. Yet this country is wanting to open right back up.

    I really hope that this virus doesn't evolve to get more deadly. If it does, we are SoL
    Quote Originally Posted by scorpious1109 View Post
    Why the hell would you wait till after you did this to confirm the mortality rate of such action?

  2. #18842
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tehealadin View Post
    I think we are in a second wave, in terms of the infection rate is going up and is comparable to where we were in early May, I am not sure in order to be considered a wave that the deaths need to match. If so then my bad. This is the first though I've heard of a wave being defined this way.
    The question is one of the correlation between # of tests performed and %age of these tests that give a positive result, since tests do have a rate of false positives.
    If you have a gazillion tests done you will find a lot of positives (both false and real), indicating a second wave, while the actual %age of positive tests (and subsequently %age of infections in the populations) are near constant.

    You can see that nicely in Germany since mid May. We are below 1% positive test results. So if deaths and ICU admissions aren't rising (like the do in e.g.: Israel, these guys have an actual second wave), then it begs the question if we are measuring infections or are operating at the accuracy limit of our tests.

  3. #18843
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    Hmm lots of positive test results but your death count does not seem to respond at all. Are you sure you are having a second wave?
    To initiate a lockdown would be rather ... well hilarious at this point. You can do that one people actually start dying.
    Well, the deaths are lagging behind infections - and even the deaths seem to be rising - but the numbers are small.
    If we blindly extrapolate it will take about 2 months until the deaths reach similar number as in April (even though the UK government says mid-October which is one month away).

    The likely explanation for the difference is a combination of a number of factors: younger people are infected now who are less likely to die, more testing detects milder cases, and better treatment increases survival rate.

    But I agree with you that it seems they could wait and see a few weeks with the restrictions - assuming they know they will be effective, but there might be additional factors or they simply don't know if they will be effective. To me it also looks as if the measures a few weeks ago were designed to increase the rate of infection (with special cash to encourage people to eat out).

    However, looking at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing it seems that the percentage of positive cases are increasing in the UK, from a low of 0.4% to 1.4%; and the UK has only increased number of tests per thousand from 2.5 in August to about 3.4 now (actually quite high internationally - even though Denmark has been above 8). One explanation is thus that the UK cannot test more and that's why the restrictions are imposed already now.
    Last edited by Forogil; 2020-09-21 at 09:45 PM.

  4. #18844
    Herald of the Titans Vorkreist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Aye, lets just hope that overeager politicians don't jump on one of the "false starts" and make vaccination mandatory.
    I find the above scenario more scary than the virus itself, tbh.
    I find the scenario in which the pandemic is prolonged needlessly for an extra year because of the "bruh bill gates puts 5G in the vaccines" or the milder version of "bruh I'm gonna get it last I need to be soooper sure its safe" more scary.

  5. #18845
    Quote Originally Posted by Vorkreist View Post
    I find the scenario in which the pandemic is prolonged needlessly for an extra year because of the "bruh bill gates puts 5G in the vaccines" or the milder version of "bruh I'm gonna get it last I need to be soooper sure its safe" more scary.
    Supposedly at the current predicted spread rate we need 50% to 75% to get a population at herd immunity. That's 50 or 75% either vaccinated or gotten it and gotten better.
    The problem is we are not 100% sure what happens if you get it a second time. How long till you can get it again.

    I was more concerned that we started opening things a month too soon. We should have rode it out another month maybe two and could have squash this into extinction but did not have the heart/stomach. We were too worried about getting our hair/nails done and to go bowling.

  6. #18846
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vorkreist View Post
    I find the scenario in which the pandemic is prolonged needlessly for an extra year because of the "bruh bill gates puts 5G in the vaccines" or the milder version of "bruh I'm gonna get it last I need to be soooper sure its safe" more scary.
    If the virus has a low probability of being nasty (that's the case for young people), the vaccine better have a much lower probability of complications.
    Else you will do more damage with your "remedy" than the virus does.

  7. #18847
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    If the virus has a low probability of being nasty (that's the case for young people), the vaccine better have a much lower probability of complications.
    Else you will do more damage with your "remedy" than the virus does.
    It has a low probability of death for young people. The occurrence of problems from it, whether damage to lungs, heart, brain etc is much higher. And they are just the serious problems, not counting lesser problems like hair loss and loss of smell.

  8. #18848
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    Can you stop talking about calendar? It is getting ridiculous.
    Agreed. The whole calendar thing is an enormous red herring in the first place; the poster who brought it up was wrong regardless of any calendar interpretation, and I see no reason to continue to follow bad-faith posters down an unimportant tangent simply because they choose to distract from bullshit positions. I got suckered into responding to one meaningless tangent post, and that's enough.



    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Yes. let's. My posts say the opposite of what you claim they say, again.
    No, lol, sorry. The posts of yours that I highlighted are from 8/7 and 8/9. The posts that you quoted are from 8/24 and 9/3, and are simply examples of the furious backpedaling and goalpost-shifting you've sadly engaged in, rather than admit your manifold errors. I mean, this is the behavior that I specifically called you out on it in my last post:
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    This is you saying that you didn't even think that it would what you call a "local peak". It's clear from this that you thought cases would continue to decline. You specifically predicted that that would be the case, despite your hilarious attempts later to backpedal from this obviously false position.
    You keep attempting to change your story without admitting that you've been consistently wrong. It's hilarious, but in a sad way.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Your disingenuous gaslighting attempts just don't work. See, I just proved that you're a gaslighting liar. I admitted that the peak was local, and I was discussing the autumn rise before it happened.
    Nope, all you've proved, yet again, is that you will deflect legitimate criticism with ad hominems. But your goalpost-changing is a matter of public record here. Regardless, there was no peak, and the cases have continued to rise, so you're still objectively wrong.

    Lest you forget, you also said this on the same backpedaling post you quoted:
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Which was exactly my point in the original quoted post, and remains true. Daily cases have peaked and are not growing anymore, it happened a month ago.
    Skipped over that part, didn't you? That's because, despite your attempt now to claim that you were somehow calling the incipient increase starting on 8/24, you were simply doubling down on your original ridiculous claim.

    And by the time you made the last of your quoted posts on 9/3, the case count average had already risen 14k in the previous 10 days and was continuing to set new records each day.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Back-to-school is causing a rise, but it's not a full-fledged wave, it's one of the contributing factors to the current situation. I'll give you one thing though - globally we indeed have one long wave instead of two separate ones.
    And with only one peak per wave, you should agree that we haven't yet reached the peak. I don't understand why this is so difficult for you.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Also, as you quoted me, India is carrying the world now.
    Actually, I quoted you stating that you specifically didn't think India would carry the world, so...


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Your graph of "world minus the big three" was not statistically demonstrative as you like to say, not a rise.
    Um... yes, lol, it is:




    From 7/31 to even your goalpost-shifted 8/31 "summer deadline", it went up over 8%. It's gone up another 15% since 9/1. That's an increase of over 24% since your so-called "world peak".

    It's becoming readily apparent that you can't read graphs...


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Graph of "world minus India", which you're hiding, will show you something you won't like.
    No, the graph of world minus just India is meaningless. It's also ridiculously hypocritical for you to try and prove something by imagining a world minus India scenario, while also having attempted to claim that I shouldn't show a graphic of the world minus the US and Brazil.

    The amusing thing is that I, in an attempt to be fair, also removed India in addition to the other two in order to show that the world minus the relatively balanced top three has been steadily increasing throughout.

    Just as the world as a whole has, with some minor, temporary fluctuations.


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  9. #18849
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    You can see that nicely in Germany since mid May. We are below 1% positive test results. So if deaths and ICU admissions aren't rising (like the do in e.g.: Israel, these guys have an actual second wave), then it begs the question if we are measuring infections or are operating at the accuracy limit of our tests.
    If we look at the positive numbers, https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing, it's not only Israel (8.7%) that has gotten new problems compared to July, but also Spain (11.8% - up from 1.5%) and France (5.5% up from 1.3%), and the US still has problems (4.8% down from 7.3%, but possibly increasing again). They might all also have problems with ramping up testing further. Not like Germany that has managed to keep the rate steady.

    Italy might also be headed the wrong way, but between 5% and UK-numbers.

  10. #18850
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    If the virus has a low probability of being nasty (that's the case for young people), the vaccine better have a much lower probability of complications.
    Else you will do more damage with your "remedy" than the virus does.
    I think one of the bigger problems we are facing isn't death in the younger population, but lasting damage to them via the heart. They are starting to study this. That may be one selling point they try for a vaccine. Saying they might survive covid, but may end up dying from heart failure or having lasting damage to the muscles of their heart. So realistically, we are seeing a virus that could be deadly in itself, but may also be deadly due to damage it causes after the fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by scorpious1109 View Post
    Why the hell would you wait till after you did this to confirm the mortality rate of such action?

  11. #18851
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zantos View Post
    I think one of the bigger problems we are facing isn't death in the younger population, but lasting damage to them via the heart. [URL="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/evidence-builds-covid-19-can-damage-heart-doctors-are-racing-understand-it"]They are starting to study this.
    One reason it’s hard to say whether COVID-19 poses a special risk of myocarditis is uncertainty about its prevalence after other infections. Echocardiogram studies after some influenza outbreaks suggest up to 10% of flu patients have transient heart abnormalities, Liu says. But such studies are scarce. “We don’t scan patients after they had the flu,” says Valentina Püntmann, a cardiologist at University Hospital Frankfurt.

    Definitely an interesting field of study and (apparently) sorely neglected thus far. Lets hope they gather data soon and bring more knowledge into the light.

  12. #18852
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...unds-pentagon/

    Know what the US is spending some of the Cares Act money on? Nothing having to do with the pandemic, the whole reason for the funding, but rather for the military!

    A $1 billion fund Congress gave the Pentagon in March to build up the country’s supplies of medical equipment has instead been mostly funneled to defense contractors and used to make things such as jet engine parts, body armor and dress uniforms.

    The change illustrates how one taxpayer-backed effort to battle the novel coronavirus, which has killed about 200,000 Americans, was instead diverted toward patching up long-standing perceived gaps in military supplies.

    The Cares Act, which Congress passed earlier this year, gave the Pentagon money to “prevent, prepare for, and respond to coronavirus.” But a few weeks later, the Defense Department began reshaping how it would award the money in a way that represented a major departure from Congress’s intent.

    The payments were made even though U.S. health officials think major funding gaps in pandemic response still remain. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in Senate testimony last week that states desperately need $6 billion to distribute vaccines to Americans early next year. Many U.S. hospitals still face a severe shortage of N95 masks. These are the types of problems that the money was originally intended to address.

    “This is part and parcel of whether we have budget priorities that actually serve our public safety or whether we have a government that is captured by special interests,” said Mandy Smithberger, a defense analyst at the Project on Government Oversight, a watchdog group.

    The $1 billion fund is just a fraction of the $3 trillion in emergency spending that Congress approved earlier this year to deal with the pandemic. But it shows how the blizzard of bailout cash was — in some cases — redirected to firms that weren’t originally targeted for assistance. It also shows how difficult it has been for officials to track how money is spent and — in the case of Congress — intervene when changes are made. The Trump administration has done little to limit the defense firms from accessing multiple bailout funds at once and is not requiring the companies to refrain from layoffs as a condition of receiving the awards.

    Some defense contractors received the Pentagon money even though they had already dipped into another pot of bailout funding, the Paycheck Protection Program.
    Sure, it's not a HUGE amount of total $3T of the Cares Act, but there's no reason to spend any of it on jet engines or body armor. Neither help combating a pandemic that can't be stopped by a kevlar plate.

  13. #18853
    The Lightbringer dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tehealadin View Post
    I will be curious to see what the UK government announces this week. I see that the scientific advisors are getting very worried about this second wave and the situation we could be in come mid October. I would still be surprised if we entered another full lockdown, though it is being floated.
    Worried? That's an understatement, our scientific advisors are forecasting an end of the UK scenario by the New Year. As seen in a recent newspaper letter in response...

    Sir - Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government, tells us the epidemic is doubling every seven days.

    Thus he calculates - somewhat frighteningly - that we will have 50,000 new infections a day by mid October and 200 deaths a day a couple of weeks later. Applying exactly the same method, the entire population will have had Covid-19 and 11.5 million of us will be dead by Christmas Day. Shortly after New Year's Day all human life in the UK will have ended.

    Merry Christmas everyone.


    Perhaps they are just plain wrong.
    13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"

  14. #18854
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Worried? That's an understatement, our scientific advisors are forecasting an end of the UK scenario by the New Year. As seen in a recent newspaper letter in response...

    Sir - Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government, tells us the epidemic is doubling every seven days.

    Thus he calculates - somewhat frighteningly - that we will have 50,000 new infections a day by mid October and 200 deaths a day a couple of weeks later. Applying exactly the same method, the entire population will have had Covid-19 and 11.5 million of us will be dead by Christmas Day. Shortly after New Year's Day all human life in the UK will have ended.

    Merry Christmas everyone.


    Perhaps they are just plain wrong.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...s-cases-rising

    Your quote is from a reader to the Telegraph.

    The October forecast is accurate, but everything beyond is is conspiratorial nonsense and the kind of uninformed misinformation and stupidity that's the root cause of why it's so difficult for countries to battle the pandemic. Because you have a not-insignificant portion of the country who don't want to battle it and don't care about the lives of others.

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...navirus-200000

    It affects elderly people, elderly people with heart problems and other problems,” Trump told a crowd of supporters in Swanton, Ohio. “That’s what it really affects. In some states, thousands of people—nobody young. Below the age of 18, like, nobody. They have a strong immune system, who knows? Take your hat off to the young, because they have a hell of an immune system. But it affects virtually nobody. It’s an amazing thing…by the way open your schools, everybody, open your schools.”
    In reality -

    6.88 MILLION CONFIRMED CASES
    200,000+ DEATHS RESULTING FROM THE VIRUS

    But I guess it only kills old folks, sucks to be them. Young folks are invulnerable, great genes. Very healthy.

    Jesus fucking christ the number of people dead due to the absolutely awe-inspiring stupidity and ignorance of my countries Commander in Chief causes me physical pain.

  15. #18855
    The Lightbringer dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...s-cases-rising

    Your quote is from a reader to the Telegraph.

    The October forecast is accurate, but everything beyond is is conspiratorial nonsense and the kind of uninformed misinformation and stupidity that's the root cause of why it's so difficult for countries to battle the pandemic. Because you have a not-insignificant portion of the country who don't want to battle it and don't care about the lives of others.

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...navirus-200000



    In reality -

    6.88 MILLION CONFIRMED CASES
    200,000+ DEATHS RESULTING FROM THE VIRUS

    But I guess it only kills old folks, sucks to be them. Young folks are invulnerable, great genes. Very healthy.

    Jesus fucking christ the number of people dead due to the absolutely awe-inspiring stupidity and ignorance of my countries Commander in Chief causes me physical pain.
    I don't get this battling thing, the virus will do want it is going to do in the end. King Canute, even wearing a mask, commanding the tide not to come in springs to mind.

    It's not about caring or not if old people die from it as let's face it that's what all old people do, fact of life. That's what we all will do in the end, in the meantime we should not forget there is a life for now to be loved and lived.

    Meanwhile back in unmuzzled Sweden...

    13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"

  16. #18856
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Meanwhile back in unmuzzled Sweden...
    https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-says-s...131658321.html

    Sweden, which so far has decided against lockdowns as a means to contain COVID-19, is seeing early signs that the number of coronavirus cases are rising again and could impose new measures in the capital, its chief health officials said on Tuesday.

    Sweden's strategy emphasising personal responsibility rather than major lockdowns to slow the virus drew fierce criticism as deaths shot up during the spring, but has also been lauded by WHO officials as a sustainable model.

    Infections dropped significantly in the summer and so far Sweden had been spared the type of sharp increases in new cases seen in Spain, France and Britain in the past month.

    However, around 1,200 new cases and five deaths have been reported since Friday compared to around 200 cases per day in the last weeks. The increase in new cases cannot solely be explained by increased testing, the Public Health Agency said on Tuesday.

    "The rolling average has increased somewhat," Anders Tegnell, Sweden's chief epidemiologist who devised its pandemic strategy, told a news conference.

    "It hasn't affected the healthcare - yet. The number of new cases at ICU is very low and the number of deaths are very low," he said.

    Tegnell said that new measures for the capital could not be ruled out. "We have a discussion with Stockholm about whether we need to introduce measures to reduce the spread of infection. Exactly what that will be, we will come back to in the next few days," he said.

    Earlier on Tuesday Stockholm's top health official warned that the region saw an increase in cases.

    "The downwards trend is broken," Stockholm Director of Health and Medical Services Bjorn Eriksson told a news conference. "We can only hope that this is a blip, that the spread start decreasing again. That depends on how well we follow the guidelines," he said.

    Sweden has reported 5,870 deaths since the start of the pandemic, many more per capita than its Nordic neighbours but also lower than countries like Spain and Italy that opted for hard lockdowns.
    Not quite worth the victory lap yet, my dude. Sweden's numbers also aren't the worst by any measure, nor are they anything to brag about thus far -

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...pe-by-country/
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...pe-by-country/
    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-across-europe

  17. #18857
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...s-cases-rising

    Your quote is from a reader to the Telegraph.

    The October forecast is accurate, but everything beyond is is conspiratorial nonsense and the kind of uninformed misinformation and stupidity that's the root cause of why it's so difficult for countries to battle the pandemic. Because you have a not-insignificant portion of the country who don't want to battle it and don't care about the lives of others.
    Are you saying that the drooling non-sense was some conspiratorial idea to cast doubt on the growth of the virus?

    To me they just looked like the ramblings of a madman (and the math for the deaths doesn't seem to check out either).

    If people in the uk are actually influenced by such non-sense that explains some of their other missteps.

  18. #18858
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Meanwhile back in unmuzzled Sweden...
    Yeaah... do try that with the population density of... say, New York City.

    There are sensible measures, there are overkill measures and there is overkill ignorance.
    Balance is key to success.

  19. #18859
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    If people in the uk are actually influenced by such non-sense that explains some of their other missteps.
    Related, but while BoJo isn't as completely insane as the reader is he hasn't exactly done a great job either, and there's the second wave coming now with harsher lockdowns again.

    This is the kind of Q-conspiracy driven nuttery that seems to have spread from the US to conservatives abroad. I apologize that our lunatic conspiracy theorists are leaking, we're trying to get a handle on the problem as best we can. Please bear with us during this technical difficulty.

  20. #18860
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Related, but while BoJo isn't as completely insane as the reader is he hasn't exactly done a great job either, and there's the second wave coming now with harsher lockdowns again.
    I though he did an excellent job by encouraging people to eat out last month!

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claim-mo...elp-out-scheme

    (May contain traces of sarcasm.)

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