Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[sabe]

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance...waa036/5775463

Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S).

This is going bad. Mutation lessens my hopes for a cure.

[ParanoiD84]

33 cases but no deaths here so far seems it only kill old and weak people.

Has there even been any kids dying from this?

[mmoholist]

I don't know what were the reporting differences between China and other countries, but considering that SARS only infected about 8000 people globally and killed just under 800, a 5% variation would have been well within the margin of error due to the small sample size!

Most of the deaths occur when medical staff gets infected and in turn infect at-risk patients in hospitals.

That's why it's important to treat people with corona in separate locations.

[shadowmouse]

@Skulltaker While the 40-70% prediction is getting a lot of talk, such articles as I can find are mighty thin on how he arrives at that figure (and that's one hell of a range). Even this site -- https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hs...e-coronavirus/ -- says only:

With widespread outbreaks in several countries, COVID-19 is getting closer to being a pandemic in which a large proportion of the human population becomes infected, although not all will show symptoms. Michael Mina said that it is not clear that an epidemic is transitioning to a pandemic until it is happening. Marc Lipsitch estimated that 40 to 70 percent of people could be infected by the virus that causes COVID-19 if it becomes pandemic.

I'd prefer not to have one more thing to kill me, but so far this year's flu still seems way out front.

@ Muajin76 Expect your local community to hit you with new paperwork. It is mainly the usual stuff, but there are now sections asking when you last entered the country and what countries you passed through in the last two weeks.

And hey, at least it is good news for Miss Piggy, she and Kermit may just have some odd threesomes.

[Up The Gary]

Media isn't helping the situation at all with all the scaremongering, it's no worse than Flu outbreaks that happen multiple times a year but you don't see the media reporting on those cases...

[shadowmouse]

it's no worse than Flu outbreaks

For certain measurements of "worse" it is. The catch is that unless it has a catchy name to make it stand out, it is just "flu" and nobody cares. Nobody cares, but right now in the US those CDC figures that make me facepalm hard enough to cause TBI say:

CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 22, 2020, there have been:

32,000,000 – 45,000,000 flu illnesses
14,000,000 – 21,000,000 flu medical visits
310,000 – 560,000 flu hospitalizations
18,000 – 46,000 flu deaths

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

[Skulltaker]

@Skulltaker While the 40-70% prediction is getting a lot of talk, such articles as I can find are mighty thin on how he arrives at that figure (and that's one hell of a range). Even this site -- https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hs...e-coronavirus/ -- says only:



I'd prefer not to have one more thing to kill me, but so far this year's flu still seems way out front.

@ Muajin76 Expect your local community to hit you with new paperwork. It is mainly the usual stuff, but there are now sections asking when you last entered the country and what countries you passed through in the last two weeks.

And hey, at least it is good news for Miss Piggy, she and Kermit may just have some odd threesomes.

We already have people not showing symptoms, though. It's quite common with many viral diseases. You have a ~15% Chance of having the flu and not showing symptoms. The note you quoted doesn't contradict him at all, it just puts things into perspective. And yes, it is one hell of a range, that is simply due to the fact that there are still many factors that are either unclear or completely unknown.

And this thing about the flu being ahead, please stop saying stuff like that. It isn't a competition. just because one is objectively worse doesn't mean you shouldn't have your eyes on the other. Just because more people are killed by hippos shouldn't mean you should disregard the alligators.

[ddsad2212]

Its not exactly surprising that a new disease with a high mortality rate (WHO has it at 3.4% currently) gets more attention then a disease we've all come to live with that has a lower mortality rate but is more wide spread. We've come to accept that the flu is a fact of live. This is new and pretty dangerous, it was always going to grab headlines..

[sabe]

Media isn't helping the situation at all with all the scaremongering, it's no worse than Flu outbreaks that happen multiple times a year but you don't see the media reporting on those cases...

Hmm, because of a simple flu the factory we work with is closed and my 40 HQ container of raw silicone is not shipped.
China must have a great plan while ruining their own economy. Oh i see now..they won't sell to me so I won't have anything to sell and bankrupt.

[Spectral]

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance...waa036/5775463

Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S).

This is going bad. Mutation lessens my hopes for a cure.

This is also entirely unsurprising - ssRNA viruses are pretty much always going to have low copy fidelity and tend towards high antigenic variation as a result. Once you have any decent sized infected population that can't be quarantined, you can pretty safely bet that you're going to wind up with enough antigenic variation that vaccination won't be trivial. That said, there may be highly conserved antigens that are useful for vaccination or the virus may be amenable to multivalent approaches.

[shadowmouse]

And this thing about the flu being ahead, please stop saying stuff like that. It isn't a competition. just because one is objectively worse doesn't mean you shouldn't have your eyes on the other. Just because more people are killed by hippos shouldn't mean you should disregard the alligators.

I think you've mistaken my position on this. I haven't tried to contradict him, I'd simply like things kept in perspective. As far as those alligators, I agree with you but I see it differently it would seem.

From my point of view though, COVID-19 is the distraction for a bad flu year with a vaccine that seems less than great. I'd rather not have one more thing to die from, but I'd also like the damned CDC to get its thumb out of its ass and get serious about something that they can't even nail down within 30 thousand flipping deaths. We knew flu season was coming, we watched the deaths start mounting, and yet we went into it unprepared even for flu (but we can build a Wall!). COVID-19 has to be portrayed as a huge, novel threat, otherwise the system would have to admit that we knew tens of thousands were going to die while pretty much zero fucks were given.

We should have been better prepared, but things like panic buying are a clear sign that people didn't pay real attention to the flu. We were going to leave social problems and program funding unaddressed as long as people could point and say that the US was safe from COVID-19 because that was the easy path. Why wasn't Pence flu czar before COVID-19 ever became a problem? We're at what could be (given CDC's lack of sound numbers) 50,000 deaths and I don't think they should have been written off as acceptable casualties. But they were. That needs to stop. People do need to get serious about both, and about things like a culture that encourages people to come in to work when they are sick even though it is known to cause businesses to lose money.

To borrow your analogy, yep, them be gators out there and they look dangerous ... but stop planning on how big a gun you need to kill gators; wake the hell up, and get your hand out of that hippo's mouth!

[sabe]

This is also entirely unsurprising - ssRNA viruses are pretty much always going to have low copy fidelity and tend towards high antigenic variation as a result. Once you have any decent sized infected population that can't be quarantined, you can pretty safely bet that you're going to wind up with enough antigenic variation that vaccination won't be trivial. That said, there may be highly conserved antigens that are useful for vaccination or the virus may be amenable to multivalent approaches.

Just please tell me the end is here

[Soulwind]

Just please tell me the end is here

I legitimally wonder if the nihilistic views of the current generation (which aren't unwarranted) are also playing a role in this outbreak. If just a few people all over the world choose not to do their job properly, they can greatly increase the spread of the virus.

[zenkai]

*Worries about COVID-19, doesn't get flu shot*

[AkundaMrdal]

So how are you preparing for an apocalypse? I bought dumbbells and I'm working out to get as fit and strong as possible before economic and societal collapse. You will have to defend yourself against hordes of starving city people, trying to steal your food. Also never tell people about your prepper stash, it would make you a target.

[Unholyground]

More like catch the coronavirus and go to work anyways.

When I get flu-like illnesses, I don't even go to a doctor, I wash down some ibuprofen and a cough suppressant and suck it up and push through the day. If I got the coronavirus, I'd probably just think it was the flu and I wouldn't even go to a doctor,

Doing that every time you are sick will take a lot of time off your life, if I am sick I don't work period no matter where I work since it is more detrimental to large business to go in sick and infect others than it is to pay that person to be home.

- - - Updated - - -

So how are you preparing for an apocalypse? I bought dumbbells and I'm working out to get as fit and strong as possible before economic and societal collapse. You will have to defend yourself against hordes of starving city people, trying to steal your food. Also never tell people about your prepper stash, it would make you a target.

This is why Canada rocks, low population and tons of fresh water for fishing/drinking and tons of land for hunting, easy peasy to survive here.

[Poe]

it is more detrimental to large business to go in sick and infect others than it is to pay that person to be home.

Haha I actually work for a large business but if I’m not going to work, I’m not getting paid.

So if I get sick, I’m going to work. I’ll try to keep my hands clean and keep my coughs suppressed but if everyone else gets sick, it’s not my fault.

[breadisfunny]

So how are you preparing for an apocalypse? I bought dumbbells and I'm working out to get as fit and strong as possible before economic and societal collapse. You will have to defend yourself against hordes of starving city people, trying to steal your food. Also never tell people about your prepper stash, it would make you a target.

nice try there trying to get me to reveal my prepper stash.

[Unholyground]

Haha I actually work for a large business but if I’m not going to work, I’m not getting paid.

So if I get sick, I’m going to work. I’ll try to keep my hands clean and keep my coughs suppressed but if everyone else gets sick, it’s not my fault.

That is the wrong mentality for businesses to have but it stems from corporations favoring money over the people that make them the money.

Side note I see a lot of people mentioning avoiding the hospitals in the US because they afraid of the bill, well as far as I know they cannot turn anyone away and you can just not pay it. If enough people just said fuck it they would have a real hard time getting all the money owed to them and something would be forced to change.

[Fuiking]

*Worries about COVID-19, doesn't get flu shot*

Flu shot in my country is only given to those at risk.. you can jump high or low but they wont give it to otherwise healthy people.

And once you have the flu the mantra is: ''stick it out!'' One of the reasons why its picking up some nasty italy level of speeds in my country is that doctors are like: ''meh you only got the flu, wait a week!''