Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Omega10]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/new...as/ar-BB11qg9e

Title: Coronavirus: State Department tells Americans: 'Do not travel' abroad, come home if overseas

The gist is: the State Department is swamped with trying to help out Americans that are overseas. They are strongly recommending that Americans abroad avoid international travel, and return as soon as possible if they plan at all to return to the US. And, they are highly recommending that Americans do not travel abroad at all.

The State Department told Americans not to travel abroad at all, the strongest U.S. alert yet as the novel coronavirus continued its steady march across the globe.

The department on Thursday issued a Level 4 advisory for travel abroad – "do not travel" – only four days after it issued a Level 3 advisory that urged Americans to "reconsider travel."

"In countries where commercial departure options remain available, U.S. citizens who live in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless they are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period," the advisory said. "U.S. citizens who live abroad should avoid all international travel."

[MCMLXXXII]

This virus will destroy our life and all countries economic value too and its easy to say that stay at home but its very hard for the people who get earning on daily basis and due to this shit we are unable to go our office like i am also working in software development company but now i am at office but dont know how much time i will come there at some point we will also heard that now you should do work from your home too as well. Stay safe and healthy

That was one long sentence, breath for god's sake.

[Zeth Hawkins]

The numbers are not incorrect. And they literally come from the report.

That is my bad. I misread the NYT article, as saying 20% of the age group was hospitalized, and 12% of the age group was in ICU.

[Daedius]

Reading up on Italy with almost 3500 deaths yesterday... it's quite saddening to hear 13 people treating patients succumbed to the virus. And this is after the call out to retired people of the medical profession...

True heroes risking their lives.

[Zeth Hawkins]

This is useless how? Are you a healthcare professional and/or working with the CDC?

If you are age 20-44, you have a 20% of being hospitalized due to this virus. What if you are 20-25 years old? Is it still 20%, or is it closer to the 2% of the 0-19 bracket? How close? At what years does the hospitalization chance cross 10%? The stat is useless.

I did, you were also not specifying which Report you were talking about and made no mention of the CDC in your Post.

The NYT article you linked discussed the CDC report, and I started my response to you with "this report". Which other report would I be discussing?

[Deletedaccount1]

If you are age 20-44, you have a 20% of being hospitalized due to this virus. What if you are 20-25 years old? Is it still 20%, or is it closer to the 2% of the 0-19 bracket? How close? At what years does the hospitalization chance cross 10%? The stat is useless.

That is a misquotation of the CDC study. Out of people who are hospitalized, 20% of them are in the 20-44 age group which is different from 20% of all people infected in that age group being hospitalized.

Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 26% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years

[shadowmouse]

The stat is useless.

Let me distinguish first between fatalism and practical application. I might get hit by lightning, there are statistics for it. Fatalism is me standing knee deep in water, waving a long copper pipe over my head and yelling that all gods are bastards (nod to Pratchett and Rincewind) and then saying that if lightning is going to get me it is going to get me. Statistics can be useful for risk assessment, but they are just statistics. As a practical matter, if your last words as you're struck by lightning are "but there was only an N% chance of that happening" it is rather pointless because they're still your last words and improbable as it might have been lightning got you.

So, napkin math or fancy super computer modeling, neither do much but fuel conversation for most. For many, however, stats still provide a way to try to understand things. Just keep everything in perspective.

[szechuan]

The stat is useless.

Are you suggesting that the CDC is trying to scare you?

At what years does the hospitalization chance cross 10%?

That also depends on your over-all Health and Immune system. It show's that young people are definitely at risk.

I wasn't talking about Hospitalization Chances, I was talking about Total Hospitalizations recorded due to the Coronavirus.

What if you are 20-25 years old? Is it still 20%, or is it closer to the 2% of the 0-19 bracket? How close?

You're still at risk of catching the virus and may still end up in the Hospital. The Data shows that 20% of all hospitalizations were people aged 20-44.

[Easo]

10k deaths surpassed, almost 250k infections total.

No grannies here.
And the elderly are on lockdown in my area.

And we had dozens of people in the park playing baseball. (I admit I was surprised.)

Of course you avoided answer. In the meantime I will worry about my grandma and others, as I dont hate old people...

[Volatilis]

10k deaths surpassed, almost 250k infections total.

Of course you avoided answer. In the meantime I will worry about my grandma and others, as I dont hate old people...

10k losses in a middle century war would be considered minor causalities.

Yes its scary for some, but one way or another thinning out the numbers somewhat through war or disease its good for the planet and its resources in the long run.
[Infraction]

[Forogil]

This report, and the included image, are borderline atrocious. This is so poorly constructed, seemingly for the purpose of making headlines (with incorrect numbers) to scare the younger generations.

The given age range of 20-44 is a span of 24 years, whereas the older age brackets in the study are of 9 year ranges.

• 0-19: 123 cases, 2% hospitalization, no ICU, no death
• 20-44: 705 cases, 20% hospitalization, 4% ICU, .2% death
• 45-54: 429 cases, 28% hospitalization, 10% ICU, .8% death
• 55-64: 429 cases, 30% hospitalization, 11% ICU, 2.6% death
• 65-74: 409 cases, 43% hospitalization, 18% ICU, 4.9% death
• 75-84: 210 cases, 58% hospitalization, 31% ICU, 10.5% death
• 84+: 144 cases, 70% hospitalization, 29% ICU, 27.3% death

It would have been helpful and more truthful to break up the 20-44 bracket into smaller segments. Better yet, divide them all into five year brackets for more accuracy. When does the number really start to climb after age 19?

I do not see how scaring millennials like this is a good thing.

Scaring people clearly has a downside, but it could have the benefit of making them more careful - lowering the number of cases.

And the underlying report also note that testing was insufficient - so we don't know the real numbers.

However, there is something else that is odd with those numbers - the ICU-percentage is lower for 84+ even though there are more deaths. It could be rng, it could be that the cases were detected too late, but it could also be that they are already down-prioritized.

Additionally regarding the underlying data it is even less accurate than I thought:

data were missing for key variables of interest. Data on age and outcomes, including hospitalization, ICU admission, and death, were missing for 9%–53% of cases,

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e2_w

[szechuan]

And Musk is being an idiot, He's also not a healthcare professional.



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/h...s-childen.html

[Easo]

10k losses in a middle century war would be considered minor causalities.

Yes its scary for some, but one way or another thinning out the numbers somewhat through war or disease its good for the planet and its resources in the long run.

Really? Did you just really go with a "culling the population"?

[jonnysensible]

Really? Did you just really go with a "culling the population"?

they dont think it will happen to them...until it does.

[Grimbold21]

Very why you ask? (Have not read to it fully)

Recently i also posted a scientific article that debunked the whole it is a bioweapon made in a lab. Corona is a SARS mutated variant.

From the little I read, it was more about knowing of its existence long before this outbreak and the tie in with the consumption of exotic meat known to be carriers of the virus

[Draco-Onis]

I would not be surprised if Trump comes out tomorrow night and says the entire country is going to shelter in place for 2 weeks. Not saying it will happen, but it would not surprise me.

That would be a bad move he isn't coordinating the states to work together an order like that without proper support would make things worst.

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Jesus - that is bad. Really bad. They aren't even going to test, so they won't know - at all - how many cases they could have (using models). And with their water and cleaning problems, Coronavirus is just going to run rampant through their larger cities.

They are following the US model

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Anyone hear from India lately. I am deeply concerned about how they will cope with this Pandemic.

Honestly the scary scenarios are countries like Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

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Could it be because Trump has told them not to take the situation seriously?
Dunno, just a thought. Maybe Trump told them: "Do it...do it and i'll f'ing spank you!"

Trump has and still is mostly concerned about the stock market as it effects his election chances, we are still not dealing with the virus at a federal level competently. Good news though we doing everything possible to calm the markets down with federal action /s

[Yunru]

So 2 things happned today:

A) Maribor pharmacies reduced the price of Lekadol (similar to aspirin - but mostly used to get body temperature down) by 25% of original price. But you must be insane to even go into one pharmacie.

B) We got this messege on the phone:
On behalf of the Government of the Republic of Slovenia We are writing to inform you that, due to the epidemic of Corvid-19 from 20.03.2020 of 00.00 use, a temporary ban on public gathering is in force. Let us help ourselves and others. Together we can.

[Volatilis]

they dont think it will happen to them...until it does.

Not at all, if it happened to me I would hope my immune system would do its job and if not then so be it. Life isnt some guaranteed thing, I dont take it for granted. I dont need corvid-19 to tell me I could die tomorrow, I've seen loved ones die in front of me to cancer.

But when you need to be a millionaire to be a home owner in my area then yea, i'll gladly take a bit less competition. And if a rain forest or two is saved and orangutans can live in peace another decade then I look at the positives rather than being a negative nancy

[Vorkreist]

I do not see how scaring millennials like this is a good thing.

The 20 - 30 bracket are behaving the least responsible during this. Its the age group who still walks out for stupid things, stupid gatherings and derps around with "bruh its just a flu" lets party! Yolo!. Also the Italy catastrophe was all their doing. Young people who took it all as a joke proceeding to spread it to their older relatives causing such a high number of deaths.

[Gaidax]

Stay at home, only get out for bare necessities.

Don't try to play numbers game - it's not about dying, it's about catching fucking pneumonia with all the following complications. People who are sick sustain damage to respiratory system and down the road it may rear its ugly head, just like often happens with other similar diseases.

Dying is not on the books for most people here, but potentially getting degraded lung function or increased chance for some other respiratory illness down the road because you had this shit in your younger days and were not careful is much bigger issue.


I just don't understand why people don't get this shit. It's not black and white, dead or not, it's not even about hospitalization %, it's a case where you take unnecessary damage to your lungs for no fucking reason. You just don't do this shit, because it might lead to complications when you are older.

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As for daily update, we now have 705 cases, 10 are high severity and 4 are critical. No deaths, likely first deaths soon.