Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Logwyn]

And the swine flu ended up being a huge nothing. No quarantines, no socialist bills, we were fine. How is this any different?

H1N1 aka swine flu has a vaccine. There was also belief that anyone born before 1957 could have developed immunity to H1N1. Also, influenza has been around with us for roughly 2000 years. Over this time as a human population, we've developed sections of the population that can resist influenza. But about every 40 to 50 years or so a new strain of influenza say H1N1 pops up. BUT because we as humans have developed an in population resistance along with a vaccine its not that big a deal.

Corona we do not have the above situation. Corona is new and really some unknowns along with it. Some fear is that it could mutate. Yes, coronavirus is around and can cause the common cold. This corona-19 is very very different tons of unknowns.

I'd give you articles but I doubt you'd read them.

[Acidbaron]

The by far most feasible chance for a cure is a vaccine. We won't have that until 2021, unless someone performs something nothing short of a miracle.

Anti-viral medicine will not give us a cure. It could provide us with something that eases symptoms anywhere from mildly to massively, but it won't be a cure. I'd be extremely happy to be proven wrong on this, but the 'best' you could hope for from anti-viral meds would be reducing fatalities and easing symptoms. Which of course helps a lot of people, but many will still suffer and die.

The worst part about all of this is, what i understood of this. We could have medication right now that suppressed the effects of all the know SARS 'members' if our policy makers acted years ago and invested a mere 100 million. So all this could have been (easily) preventable.

- - - Updated - - -

It's not the infected cases that people wonder about.
It's how many people are dead in the US.

Number of hospitalizations are important as once a certain threshold is passed, hospitals can no longer manage and the deaths will increase rapidly after that.

[Zaktar]

What actual proof is there that the US should stay quarantined? I've had it with this mindless fear mongering. People even saying it's gonna be worse than WWII.

Tell me, why should we let the economy collapse because of something not even as bad as the flu? And why letting people sit at home not working and getting handout checks is miraculously going to fix it.

I want articles, not that same doctored graph showing deaths in America that has already been proven false.

Here is a virologist (his qualifications are linked in the article) explaining how the virus functions, and giving you a basic understanding of why it's particularly dangerous:
https://www.wksu.org/post/inside-spi...so-dangerous-0

Here is a very helpful primer on exponential and logistic growth, which obviously specifically applies to pandemics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Here are the relevant stats for the US from a reputable source, take special note of how quickly the number of deaths double (not quite every 2 days, but something less than 3):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you don't believe the stats, name your preferred source. CDC are reputable but they update slowly, but with a little effort we can make the same kinds of computations.

Here is a very basic explanation of why you keep hearing "flatten the curve:"
https://www.health.com/condition/inf...-curve-meaning
or
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/...e-coronavirus/
or
http://theconversation.com/how-to-fl...xplains-133514

Here's an example of what we get if we do nothing, based on CDC estimates:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...assive-us-toll


While I doubt you'll respond in good faith, it seemed worth compiling a little of this information. None of it is new to anyone paying attention. Other people might have better quality information, I'm just some internet schlub.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

I concede the drawback...which is why;

Wanted: A coronavirus test to identify people who were infected and then recovered

Identifying those who are no longer sick with COVID-19 may not seem as urgent as testing those who may be newly infected. So why scramble to confirm that patients have returned to health or find ones who never seemed sick in the first place?

The answer: Because they can provide care, and perhaps a cure, for those who are sick with COVID-19. And their numbers will offer a barometer of how near we are to this pandemic’s end.

Public health authorities suspect that tens of thousands of Americans, if not more, have had COVID-19 without realizing it because they suffered few or very mild symptoms. Around the world, more than 100,000 former patients have been tagged as “recovered.” But that is likely a tiny fraction of the true total.

Now immune to reinfection — at least for a while — many of these recovered people could safely go back to work. They could care for those who are ill or who are at high risk of dying if they become ill. They could donate their antibody-rich blood to be used as medicine for the critically ill.

They could be among the first to return to life as we used to know it.

But first, officials need a test to identify this population.

------------------

I would be more than willing to volunteer for such a test.

A research team from the Zurich University Hospital is currently experimenting on such a test.


Coronavirus: University Hospital Zurich conducts research with a new Covid 19 test

Researchers at the University Hospital of Zurich are on the trail of the currently rampant coronavirus and the Covid-19 disease caused by it . They are using a new antibody test for their study .

A whole network of Swiss researchers developed this antibody test, as Adriano Aguzzi, head of the Institute for Neuropathology at the University Hospital, told the Keystone-SDA news agency on Tuesday.

This is a purely experimental test that is made pseudonymized. This means that for the time being, the patients are not given any information about their status. The “Tages-Anzeiger” also reported on this antibody test.

In contrast to the common tests, in which a throat swab is examined for virus particles, the researchers test the blood for antibodies with their new development. These are formed when people have had a Sars-CoV-2 infection. Even those with little or no symptoms of the infection could be identified in this way.

At the university hospital, the researchers now want to test the blood of all patients who come to the hospital - not just those who are admitted with a coronavirus infection. The series test provides important information.

Unreported numbers come to light
This enables the researchers to determine, for example, how high the infection is, i.e. how many people carry the virus or have already gone through the disease. The number of unreported cases is also revealed because the patients have no symptoms.

It also examines the diseases with which the patients are hospitalized. Because not all come with the typical symptoms such as cough and fever.

"There are still a lot of ambiguities," said Aguzzi. It is fundamentally important to provide more knowledge. An advantage of the new test is that a very high throughput is possible. The blood of 1000 to 2000 patients can be tested every day.

[tlitd]

MD, 8 years of training, 12 years of practicing as a surgeon.

To your knowledge, have the German ICUs started looking out explicitly for sHLH or FM, as complications of COVID-19? The community's abuzz on these two potential involvements, as many biomarkers typical to immunologic or cardiac involvement have already been associated to COVID-19. sHLH typical biomarkers, the ones already found in cases of COVID-19 emphasized: hyperferritinemia, hypertriglyceridemia, cytopenias, hypofibrinogenemia, elevated soluble CD25. FM typical biomarkers, the ones already found in cases of COVID-19 emphasized: elevated cTn, elevated CK-MB, elevated CRP, elevated ESR, elevated BNP.

[Draco-Onis]

It will quickly ends up in the same situation as the swine flu where they say things like "We estimate the number of infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion" That's a pretty freaking huge margin and the reason is simply because we cannot know how many are really infected. Hell, they dont even agree on the number of deaths! (somewhere between 18k and 284k)

So yeah... since we're heading in that direction already, any fights in regards of numbers DURING the outbreak is useless. You can all go nuts once this is over and then argue who's the best... (hint : it's probably going to be either South Korea or China that will get the gold medal)

The estimates are for if we do nothing they are a warnings, it's like a sign saying dead end you swerving and taking another path doesn't change the fact that it was a dead end street. As you've noted China and South Korea imagine their numbers if their governments did nothing.

[AmyPang]

It's getting worse and stay as much as safe... Try to enhance you immunity by having recommended food to enhance you immunity and stay home as much as possible. Always wear a mask and wash you hand frequently using recommended hand wash or sanitizer. Keep social distance and follow health instructions. A nation can only defeat the virus if works together. Otherwise, all we have to face pathetic condition as same as Italy

[Gaidax]

Now on to the MSN virus tracker

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/coronavirus

State - Active Cases - Deaths

IN 463 14
TN 781 3
MA 1822 15
AZ 395 6
WA 2448 132
VA 381 9
NJ 4335 65
MI 2251 43

Israel 2306 5

Keep in mind: India 553 10
India is going into full lockdown. Their numbers are likely to be underestimated by orders of magnitude.

Based on these numbers, it seems that Israel compares favorably with 3 states, and not so good compared with the rest. On the other hand, I'm not sure how reliable the numbers of Virginia or Arizona are.

Here's the thing, we're already almost 2 weeks on restricting orders country-wide. Right now we can't move away from our homes for more than 100 meters. Said states, on the other hand, maybe 1 week if that.

There is hope we will break the curve, because we woke up "early", the US? It's only starting.

[szechuan]

There is hope we will break the curve, because we woke up "early", the US? It's only starting.

Wrong, CA had a near full lockdown similar to yours much earlier then you did.

[Yunru]

The fear of the disease has succeeded in getting the worst out of many. In La Linea de la Concepcion, several ambulances were attacked with stones, with 28 elderly who were infected or already showing signs of illness. They come from another area, but the authorities have sought accommodation here for quarantine. But the residents were so angry that they decided to protest, and they tried to block the vehicles, according to Spanish police, who detained at least two people.

Source (translated):
https://www.24ur.com/novice/tujina/k...us-tujina.html

I am not suprised people are pissed off if their save home become a quarantine dumping zone.

[Gaidax]

Wrong, CA had a near full lockdown similar to yours much earlier then you did.

March 16

California: As of 12:01 AM Monday, March 16, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti ordered all bars, movie theaters, gyms and fitness centers closed, and for restaurants to limit themselves to take-out and delivery only.[210]

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli..._United_States


Israel did this and more country-wide with announcement at March 14th. I personally am working from home starting March 15th, first working day here. Schools and Universities were already closed for several days by then. KEKW. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...emic_in_Israel

You bois totally dropped a ball on this, even in best case scenario of CA.

[Acidbaron]

The fear of the disease has succeeded in getting the worst out of many. In La Linea de la Concepcion, several ambulances were attacked with stones, with 28 elderly who were infected or already showing signs of illness. They come from another area, but the authorities have sought accommodation here for quarantine. But the residents were so angry that they decided to protest, and they tried to block the vehicles, according to Spanish police, who detained at least two people.

Source (translated):
https://www.24ur.com/novice/tujina/k...us-tujina.html

I am not suprised people are pissed off if their save home become a quarantine dumping zone.

Some people have been also sending threatening messages and letters to doctors and nurses as people living around them fear they will bring the disease to their street.

Ape like behaviour.

[szechuan]

March 16

California: As of 12:01 AM Monday, March 16, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti ordered all bars, movie theaters, gyms and fitness centers closed, and for restaurants to limit themselves to take-out and delivery only.[210]

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli..._United_States


Israel did this and more country-wide with announcement at March 14th. I personally am working from home starting March 15th, first working day here. Schools and Universities were already closed for several days by then. KEKW. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...emic_in_Israel

You bois totally dropped a ball on this, even in best case scenario of CA.

Wrong, Again The Country more Stricter wide Lockdown didn't happen until recently.

CA was in Full Lockdown in the 20th with potential penalties for breaking Quarantine. You're country just recently enacted that law.

CA was ahead of Israel in 6 days. Seems like Israel is just as bad if not worse.

[Gaidax]

Wrong, Again The Country more Stricter wide Lockdown didn't happen until recently.

CA was in Full Lockdown in the 20th with potential penalties for breaking Quarantine. You're country just recently enacted that law.

CA was ahead of Israel in 6 days. Seems like Israel is just as bad if not worse.

Sources please.

Or all you can do is mimic Trump with your "WRONG"? SAD!


You have the timeline in front of your face.

[szechuan]

Sources please.

Or all you can do is mimic Trump with your "WRONG"? SAD!

Because you're wrong. Took Israel a week to enact this kind of lockdown. Again you should ask for your PM's head like you did to American States.


https://kvoa.com/news/2020/03/19/ca-...e-to-covid-19/

[Gaidax]

Honestly, I am not even sure what the fuck you try to compare here, the no.1 most important measure that is not a thing until this day is mandatory quarantine for interstate travelers, if you even can do this thing. You try to sell me your "we did mesurrz", when what you did is STILL not even close to what actually needs to be done.

But it's fine, let's return to this in a week time. Would be curious to see the outcome.

[szechuan]

Honestly, I am not even sure what the fuck you try to compare here, the no.1 most important measure that is not a thing until this day is mandatory quarantine for interstate travelers, if you even can do this thing.

Again, We Can't have a Mandatory Quarantine between Interstate Traveling, this is impossible due to the SIZE, States can't enforce that.

You try to sell me your "we did mesurrz", when what you did is STILL not even close to what actually needs to be done.

Says the country that lacks Respirators, States can't mandate the equivalent of the SWAT and or Military patrolling the streets like you do.

Not sure what the fuck you're trying to compare to when CA alone completely Dwarfs your country in Size escpecially when they nowhere near have the same Power like your PM does.

Governors of States are not PM's.

[Gaidax]

Again, We Can't have a Mandatory Quarantine between Interstate Traveling, this is impossible due to the SIZE, States can't enforce that.

Says the country that lacks Respirators, States can't mandate the equivalent of the SWAT and or Military patrolling the streets like you do.

Sounds like a YOU problem. Tough shit, m8.

Guess you will be explaining this in history classes down the road how you could not do shit. Neither at Federal nor at State level.

[szechuan]

Sounds like a YOU problem. Tough shit, m8.

LMAO, you're dense.

Guess you will be explaining this in history classes down the road how you could not do shit.

And you're a Fool who acts like they know how to contain a Virus when even your PM was late in Enacting a Full Lockdown as well as pretending that Governors have the same powers to control the Military like your PM.
[Infraction]

[Gaidax]

LMAO, you're dense.



And you're a Fool, and have no clue how USA works.

USA works? News to me, indeed.

You bois are like a guidebook to ineptitude right now. I just hope for your sake it's the last pandemic of this magnitude we will see next 50 to 100 years.