Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[-aiko-]

A few weeks ago the death rate was at 5% and decreasing. Now it's at 17%. Wtf happened?

We're in the early stages of the virus. It doesn't infect you then kill you immediately, or even within days. It can take weeks to kill a patient. It will take a lot more time for us to truly understand and have accurate numbers behind how deadly this virus is.

[Rhelyo]

I heard from tv that 35% of Italy population consists of people over 65 years old. If that is true and they do not get the virus in check from spreading it will end in a catastrophe.
Also the high percent of death ratio is due to having a small portion recovered from the total of active cases. As more active cases close hopefully in recovery the death ratio will drop.

[PhaelixWW]

I heard from tv that 35% of Italy population consists of people over 65 years old. If that is true and they do not get the virus in check from spreading it will end in a catastrophe.
Also the high percent of death ratio is due to having a small portion recovered from the total of active cases. As more active cases close hopefully in recovery the death ratio will drop.

It's 23%, not 35%, but that's definitely a factor.

[the game]

Death Stranding much China?

Also it seems like its gona be hard to get news out of China due to travel ban for any outsider.

I read the new one coming out is not airborne. at least not yet.

[stevenho]

It's 23%, not 35%, but that's definitely a factor.

Germany is 22.36%. Age alone is not even close to explaining Italy.
They probably have 500k cases not 80k.

[Shadowferal]

About that "other virus;" Hantavirus is one illness you don’t need to worry about right now — as long as you avoid contact with rodents

Dr. Tania Elliott from NYU Langone Health in Manhattan told MarketWatch that hantavirus has actually been around for a long time, “probably for centuries,” and that it is most prevalent in China with anywhere from 16,000 to 100,000 cases a year.

But unlike the coronavirus — which is believed to spread from person to person through droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes — the hantavirus is primarily spread by contact with mice and their urine, feces or saliva. In fact, the CDC notes that, to date, “no cases of HPS (hantavirus pulmonary syndrome) have been reported in the United States in which the virus was transmitted from one person to another.” So avoiding the hantavirus basically comes down to avoiding contact with rodents, Dr. Elliott said.

[Thepersona]

Germany is 22.36%. Age alone is not even close to explaining Italy.
They probably have 500k cases not 80k.

This is most likely. With the severe (and i mean severe) selection pressures that this fucking virus is being subjected to, it stands to reason that it would mutate to a more transmisible/less deadly strain. The point is, until we get antibody testing to go along with the common detection for the virus (to see if someone has the antibodies but tested negative on the other test) we're pretty much walking blind on this.
And this is a reminder, it doesnt matter if the virus gets a IFR of influenza, if the R0 is of mumps. The system would be overwhelmed anyway. The only good thing is that if this is true, we can make massive antibody testing, and anyone who was positive could go to work.

[Gaidax]

About that "other virus;" Hantavirus is one illness you don’t need to worry about right now — as long as you avoid contact with rodents

Dr. Tania Elliott from NYU Langone Health in Manhattan told MarketWatch that hantavirus has actually been around for a long time, “probably for centuries,” and that it is most prevalent in China with anywhere from 16,000 to 100,000 cases a year.

But unlike the coronavirus — which is believed to spread from person to person through droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes — the hantavirus is primarily spread by contact with mice and their urine, feces or saliva. In fact, the CDC notes that, to date, “no cases of HPS (hantavirus pulmonary syndrome) have been reported in the United States in which the virus was transmitted from one person to another.” So avoiding the hantavirus basically comes down to avoiding contact with rodents, Dr. Elliott said.

And here I was banking on having some succulent rats on stick once the civilization collapses due to the virus. Dammit, hantavirus.

[Corvus]

Australia has gone passed 3000 cases now, with 13 deaths.

If we continue on exponential growth then the experts say we only have about 10 days until we run out of ICU places. That is scary.

The good news is that we have had two days in a row where the number of cases has gone done, despite increased testing, and a lot of those new cases have come from overseas, with Australians returning home and being put in quarantine.

Hopefully the downwards trend will continue and it is not just an abberation.

The government is actually considering something radical - they are contemplating putting the economy into hibernation for the next few months, and then restart went the crisis is over. Basically they want all rents and mortgages waivered for the next six months, amongst other things.

[Shadowferal]

And here I was banking on having some succulent rats on stick once the civilization collapses due to the virus. Dammit, hantavirus.

That's okay...cockroaches will still be here.

[Gaidax]

The government is actually considering something radical - they are contemplating putting the economy into hibernation for the next few months, and then restart went the crisis is over. Basically they want all rents and mortgages waivered for the next six months, amongst other things.

That's nice, over here we had government in an uncharacteristic burst of generosity decide to give every fired person a one time ~150 bucks deposit. They did walk back on that one, though, to divert the money to other needs, but hey, they tried.

[Skulltaker]

I read in some news outlet that one partial explanation to the very low number of deaths in Germany is that it was primarily introduced among youthful crowds : with mentions of some alpine ski resorts and those Berlin clubs partying playing a key role in the propagation.

Have you heard of something similar?

I haven't. It would surprise me if that was the case, although I won't rule it out.

Youths and young people are almost always the most exposed to a virus, and also contribute to it's spread 'the most'. First of all, there is more of them. The global median age is 30 years, although it is significantly higher in most of the west, even more so in Germany. Second of all, and way more contributing, young people tend to have a wider social circle, not necessarily of friends and family, but the sheer number of people they meet on a day-by-day basis. They are in schools and universities and sit in tightly packed classrooms, they spend their nighttime in crowded bars and sweaty clubs, and they also tend to be more frequently represented in jobs that have a high number of contacts to others, and often foodstuffs: waiters, cashiers at places like McDonalds, baristas at Starbucks, and so on.

I'm not saying middle-aged or older citizens don't do any of that, by no means, but youths just get around more. They also have significantly less underlying conditions and take infections a lot better.

I'll see if I can find out anything about this. But it shouldn't account for such a huge discrepancy in deaths as compared to our neighbours.

[Morgarw]

I haven't. It would surprise me if that was the case, although I won't rule it out.

Youths and young people are almost always the most exposed to a virus, and also contribute to it's spread 'the most'. First of all, there is more of them. The global median age is 30 years, although it is significantly higher in most of the west, even more so in Germany. Second of all, and way more contributing, young people tend to have a wider social circle, not necessarily of friends and family, but the sheer number of people they meet on a day-by-day basis. They are in schools and universities and sit in tightly packed classrooms, they spend their nighttime in crowded bars and sweaty clubs, and they also tend to be more frequently represented in jobs that have a high number of contacts to others, and often foodstuffs: waiters, cashiers at places like McDonalds, baristas at Starbucks, and so on.

I'm not saying middle-aged or older citizens don't do any of that, by no means, but youths just get around more. They also have significantly less underlying conditions and take infections a lot better.

I'll see if I can find out anything about this. But it shouldn't account for such a huge discrepancy in deaths as compared to our neighbours.

Probabily because you are the best in the world and the others sucks, in fact you have a great life expantancy indeed……..

[Skulltaker]

Probabily because you are the best in the world and the others sucks, in fact you have a great life expantancy indeed……..

Are you going to contribute something worthy to the thread, or are you just going to keep spouting nonsense?

By the way, are you going to back up your 'Italy has one of the best health care systems' theory any time soon?

[Draco-Onis]

Are you going to contribute something worthy to the thread, or are you just going to keep spouting nonsense?

By the way, are you going to back up your 'Italy has one of the best health care systems' theory any time soon?

I don't see what is going on in Italy as a failure of the health care system but a failure of the leaders of the country to take the problem seriously. You can look at South Korea, Japan and other countries it's not their health care it's the fact that their leadership took charge and tackled the problem. Any system will fail if tons of people show up at once and they don't have supplies to deal with it that's why it's so vital to flatten the curve.

If you don't at least provide the fail safes needed when shit hits the fan.

[Skulltaker]

I don't see what is going on in Italy as a failure of the health care system but a failure of the leaders of the country to take the problem seriously. You can look at South Korea, Japan and other countries it's not their health care it's the fact that their leadership took charge and tackled the problem. Any system will fail if tons of people show up at once and they don't have supplies to deal with it that's why it's so vital to flatten the curve.

I'm not saying the Italian health care system failed. Someone said it's one of the best in Europe. It isn't, by quantifiable measures. That's all I said. Amon EU countries, Italy is in the lower mid-field. That still puts them ahead of a vast part of the world. And that's all. That being said, they were badly equipped and staffed for large numbers of people who need ICU treatment, especially ventilators. Same goes for France and Spain, by the way.

As for Japan and South Korea: I'm not saying that their quick response wasn't a major factor, but a well-equipped and developed health care system with an abundance of hospital beds compared to other nations helped them significantly. Japan and South Korea have significantly more hospital beds per capita than any nation in the west, by more than 30%.

[Masark]

...

"Hey, maybe we should look into changing the shit that caused this situation?"

"YOU'RE FUCKING ATROCIOUS! HOW DARE YOU USE THIS PANDEMIC AS A POLITICAL TOOL?!?!?"

[Morgarw]

Are you going to contribute something worthy to the thread, or are you just going to keep spouting nonsense?

By the way, are you going to back up your 'Italy has one of the best health care systems' theory any time soon?

Of course. Here's the link https://www.aetnainternational.com/e...andinavia.html

Anyway the real fact is definitly life expantacy, you can't have a great life expectancy
without a great health care system.
Italians are among the top
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ife_expectancy
while you germans are far behind

[Masark]

Death Stranding much China?

Also it seems like its gona be hard to get news out of China due to travel ban for any outsider.

Hantavirus? Seriously?

We've had hantavirus for decades. Anyone who lives in a rural area knows about it. It's not pandemic material, because it isn't transmissible human-human.

[Shadowferal]

We've had hantavirus for decades. Anyone who lives in a rural area knows about it. It's not pandemic material, because it isn't transmissible human-human.

The human transmissable one is hentai-virus?