1. #18041
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    It took all of one week. Basically, in Georgia quite a few students and staff are starting to test positive, and the Georgia back to school policies are running into difficulties.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/9-...al/ar-BB17MHNb

    Title: 9 students, staff test positive for COVID-19 after Georgia school hallway photo goes viral

    Excerpts:

    6 students and 3 staff members tested positive in the high school where the student was temporarily suspended for posting a picture of a crowded hallway with no one wearing masks. Well that was last week. That high school now is in the national news for the 3rd time since the school year started.



    This is information about the original photo and comments that that photographer made:



    The school will shut down for 2 days, at which time they will review how to proceed.



    Other parts of Georgia are also having problems.



    Cherokee county is also having problems.



    In populated areas at least, it seems like the attempts at having schools open as usual will be a fairly short effort. Possibly rural schools will be able to stay open a bit longer.
    They should have learned by now that masks and social distancing work.

    Here is a map showing map usage throughout the country. SF is by far the highest.



    Here is a table showing infection and mortality rates for the big cities in US. As city goes, SF is #16 by population and #2 by population density.



    Here is how many lifes would have been saved if every big cities followed SF's lead.

    Last edited by Rasulis; 2020-08-10 at 05:08 PM.

  2. #18042
    I think quite honestly this week went real well other than a couple of virtual photos

    Brian Kemp, governor of Georgia, giving his opinion on how school openings that have led to hundreds of staff and students needing to quarantine following potential exposure to others with coronavirus.

    I don't know what a "virtual photo" of actual school halls with actual real students jammed shoulder to shoulder and largely unmasked even means.

    Brian Kemp and Ron DeSantis are working hard to get students and faculty in their state killed, and be the leading cause of death for their constituents for the year 2020.

    The Republican party is going to be the leading cause of death in the US in the year 2020.

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...e-path-forward

    The U.S. has hit 5 million confirmed coronavirus cases — just 17 days after crossing the 4 million mark — as lawmakers and states continue to grapple with how to chart a path back to normal as the pandemic continues to rage on.
    Take heart, things are slowing down! It took 15 days to go from 3M to 4M confirmed cases, and it took two more days to go from 4M to 5M cases.

    Itssomething.gif

  3. #18043
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    And this is exactly my point. Despite the fact that 4% of the world is decreasing (for now) and 96% is increasing, you're convinced the world has peaked. Despite the fact that the daily case counts have been steadily rising for half a year, you're convinced that after a week of minor decrease (immediately following a 10 day surge) means that those numbers can't possibly go any higher. You believe this despite the obvious explanations, and despite the consensus of doctors around the world.
    Your percentages are wrong. Declining parts decline faster than rising parts rise, that's why the whole is declining. The consensus among all non-insane people is that 260083 is larger than 254176.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    What you're implying that I ascribed to you, I didn't. I explained the meaning in context, and you're ignoring it to chase your alternate meaning down some rabbit hole, instead of actually making a point. I'm forced to conclude that it's because you don't actually have a point to make.
    Not to teach you your own native language, "to peak" and "to be over" are always two separate events, and the former always happens before the latter. When that guy in 20th century introduced the concept of "peak oil", he obviously didn't mean that oil production will be over at its peak. Just like the pandemic isn't over at its peak. You're wrong and you know it.

    Oh and my point is, the world has peaked 11 days ago. Face the truth.


    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    See, but that's not what you initially said, is it? You said "the world has peaked", not "I believe that the world has peaked". And when called on it, you said "most likely it will stay that way", not "I believe that it will stay that way. You're stating this subjective opinion, with no real credible explanation, as fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    It seems the world as a whole has peaked. My earlier point about 3% cases soft cap remains true, Qatar is still the only country to go past it, and for understandable reasons. I expect some US states go past 3% ("because they test more" :| ), but whether any other state-level entity besides Qatar will break 4% cases within 2020, remains to be seen. I guess they'd have to increase testing for that.
    You're wrong and you know it. I said, literally, "It seems the world as a whole has peaked." Just give up and admit you're wrong.


    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    No, actually, you definitely hypothesized the existence of a soft-cap. You just lacked follow-through on anything else resembling an explanation, yet obstinately refused any alternate explanation that contradicted that hypothesis.
    For the umpteenth time, "empirical observation, not hypothesis"... stop fighting that strawman... BTW nothing contradicted the observation about numbers. Forogil gave a good explanation and you gave a good explanation. Numbers are correct.


    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    I mean... 730,000 people dead sure as hell qualifies as "dying in large numbers".
    This is a gotcha moment, as your ilk likes to say. How many people that you personally know have died of Covid? Numbers appear large to you because as "very online person" you delusionally compare the planet to your house. Here, look at this:
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
    It's 23:11 here, numbers will increase a few percent.

    Births today
    371,040
    Deaths today
    155,771
    Population Growth today
    215,269

    More babies are born in 2 days than people died from Covid in total.
    More people die in 5 days than from Covid in total.
    I don't see you lamenting the ~160,000 dead every day, are you a hypocrite?


    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    And now you're grossly exaggerating the "suffering" and "poverty".
    At this point I'm about 99.9% certain you don't have children, that's why you're so callous. And probably you're from a rich family and never faced poverty yourself.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    None of this isn't to say that there aren't people suffering. But you know who's not suffering anymore? The 165,000 Americans who have died so far from COVID.
    But you know who still is? 2,700,000 Americans who have already recovered, and 320,000,000 more Americans who won't get sick. But you still want them to suffer.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    I'm not even sure what you're talking about.
    Anti-lockdowners and anti-maskers.


    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    You keep pressing this idea that there's "panic", or a "scare" that should be ended.
    <..>
    You let your imagination create "positive facts" for you to believe in with no reason or evidence. That's not reality, it's fantasy. And because I'm challenging your fantasy, you falsely (and childishly) characterize my rebuttal as "wishing" for bad things to happen.
    260083 > 254176, that's a fact.
    What's your fantasy, we'll all die? Of course we will, but only exceptions will die from Covid. And 4-5 days worth of babies will be more than all deaths from this pandemic. Population clock will show 8 billion by the time Covid is over. These are not facts yet, but they will inevitably become facts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  4. #18044
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    They should have learned by now that masks and social distancing work.

    Here is a map showing map usage throughout the country. SF is by far the highest.



    Here is a table showing infection and mortality rates for the big cities in US. As city goes, SF is #16 by population and #2 by population density.

    I cannot see that those numbers are correct for SF, according to https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal...nrcs143_013697 SF is 06075 which had 81.7% respond that they always wear a mask in https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-...aster/mask-use

    Looking more closely it also seems that mask use vary a lot between nearby counties, so you can find areas where 60-90% always wear masks around both Houston and San Francisco. It could be that they are statistical fluctuations, or that city/county level is too coarse-grained and that mask wearing varies on a smaller scale - looking at SF itself the number of cases also varies significantly on a small scale, with Nob Hill reporting almost twice the rate of cases as nearby Chinatown.
    I would assume a lot of people in such nearby areas work and shop in the same places, so they will run into each other.

    If we just look at the counties we see that the in terms of mask-wearing the counties with fewest deaths have quite different percentages always wearing mask:
    San Francisco 81.7%, Santa Clara (for San Jose) 76.4%, San Diego 80%, Duval (for Jacksonville FL) 62.9%, Tarrant (Ft. Worth) 72.2%; whereas others have higher numbers like Philadelphia at 79.4% and Bexar (San Antonio) at 82.2%.

    Population density obviously matters, but just fitting a trend-line through the data still shows that deaths go down with increasing mask use - but the variation from 55% always wearing masks (Indianapolis) to 82% (San Antoni) is according to the trend more like a reduction from perhaps 50 to 30 deaths per 100k; not a reduction from 79 to 6. No silver bullet, but still important. Whether it is only directly caused by mask use, or also correlated with mask use (e.g., people using masks actually believe that the disease exist and also physically distance) isn't clear - but there are some indications that the correlation is so strong in the US that it hardly matters.

    However, to say that New York (and to a lesser extent some other cities like Chicago) would have avoided 22k deaths if they followed SF's lead is also oversimplifying it, as NY had those deaths earlier, and we believe that treatment is now better (and one could understand if people are more relaxed now in NY as the outbreak is less active there).

  5. #18045
    The Unstoppable Force Puupi's Avatar
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    https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...uarantine_for/

    Finland mandates quarantine for arrivals from high risk countries.

    Most countries in the world are on that list.

    This change came into effect when an airplane from Skopje, North Macedonia, landed in Finland on Saturday. They tested everyone on board (this was the first testing of this sort in the country) and 24 out of 157 tested positive on a single flight.
    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i've said i'd like to have one of those bad dragon dildos shaped like a horse, because the shape is nicer than human.
    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i was talking about horse cock again, told him to look at your sig.

  6. #18046
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    There are rogue weddings with far more attendees than allowed.

    Last week there were huge waves over a wedding of some sizable religious community leader's grandson that clocked over 2k people packed in some conference hall they arranged for that shit. Of course police can't stop shit of this magnitude or there would be riots in that neighborhood, so they fined organizers for something laughable like ~USD1.5k each, which is nothing for them.

    Police still tries to somehow push to make a legal claim over that, but I don't expect anything to come out of that.

  7. #18047
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Your percentages are wrong. Declining parts decline faster than rising parts rise, that's why the whole is declining. The consensus among all non-insane people is that 260083 is larger than 254176.
    Go ahead. Find any time where I said 260,083 was smaller than 254,176. I'll wait.

    Oh, but no, I won't wait, because you know what else isn't smaller than 254,176? That would be 255,621.

    "Why is 255,621 important?" I'll imagine you asking, since the truth is that you're probably just grinding your teeth. Well, you see, part of the reason the 7-day average was so low is that several countries (notably Spain, France, and Sweden) fail to update their covid stats on the weekend, so we have to wait for Monday to get a backfill of those days. The weekend backfill for those three countries (which are all, incidentally, experiencing a moderate to significant resurgence of cases) accounts for an additional 10.5k cases over the weekend, which quite obviously adds 1.5k to the 7 day average for those days. That means that we've now 1.5k of that 6k drop disappear, almost as if it was never really there to begin with.

    Also of note is the fact that last Monday's one-day total was a surprisingly low number, compared to expectations based on the surrounding data.

    As I write this, Columbia just posted a 10k daily total, putting the world at 190k so far today. Peru, Argentina, and Panama will probably add about 15k between them, and the US will still probably see another 10k or so tacked on to their total. That would put the day at 215k, not counting any other additions, which is a whopping 15k higher than last Monday, and that would add over 2k to the 7-day average.

    After today, the 7-day average is likely to back up to just around 258k, marking a rebound of 4k over 3 days from the 6k decrease that took place over the previous 8 days, which in turn was largely caused by the abnormally low one-day total last Monday, which quite obviously and expectantly has depressed the 7-day average for the week since.

    Which is why you don't claim that it's peaked based on a small decrease in a small period of time.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Not to teach you your own native language, "to peak" and "to be over" are always two separate events, and the former always happens before the latter. When that guy in 20th century introduced the concept of "peak oil", he obviously didn't mean that oil production will be over at its peak. Just like the pandemic isn't over at its peak. You're wrong and you know it.
    Language is fluid; "Literal" and "figurative" are both real concepts (despite the fact that people quite literally misuse the word "literally" at least as frequently as it's used correctly). Something can quite easily be figuratively over without being literally over. My mistake was assuming that you could tell the difference when the difference was blatant. Obviously, I gave you too much credit.

    Regardless, at no time did I actually believe that you believed that this was literally over just because you mistakenly believe that it has peaked, so you're just running yourself around in circles, embarrassing yourself, for absolutely no reason. Give it up already.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Oh and my point is, the world has peaked 11 days ago. Face the truth.
    Yeah, no, sorry. It's stiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiill not a truth just because you say so, no matter how many times you repeat it.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    You're wrong and you know it. I said, literally, "It seems the world as a whole has peaked." Just give up and admit you're wrong.
    Lulz, the irony. The phrase "it seems the world as a whole has peaked" is still an objective statement, whereas "it seems to me that the world as a whole has peaked" is a subjective statement. "It seems" does not automatically make a phrase subjective. "It seems to everyone that you're wrong" would be an objective statement.

    Regardless, you literally just said "my point is, the world has peaked 11 days ago". So... where's that subjectivity now?


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    For the umpteenth time, "empirical observation, not hypothesis"... stop fighting that strawman... BTW nothing contradicted the observation about numbers. Forogil gave a good explanation and you gave a good explanation. Numbers are correct.
    Look, back at the beginning of this, you said:
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    NYC peaked under 3% cases, Qatar peaked at 3% cases, do you think it indicates the "soft cap" of herd immunity when R value goes down enough to slow the spread?
    That, right there, is a hypothesis. You don't have to firmly state that you believe that it's the truth in order for it to be a hypothesis, but any proposed hypothetical explanation (even if you don't flesh out the explanation with actual logical reasoning) is, by definition, a hypothesis. Scientists quite often, in fact, make bold hypotheses only to then turn around and disprove them. That's also a foundational concept of propositional calculus, where you often assume a condition merely to disprove its possibility. Eliminating hypotheses often advances knowledge just as effectively as proving hypotheses.

    However, if you're admitting that the hypothesis of a soft cap for virus transmission is disproved, then we can just move on.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    This is a gotcha moment, as your ilk likes to say. How many people that you personally know have died of Covid? Numbers appear large to you because as "very online person" you delusionally compare the planet to your house.

    More babies are born in 2 days than people died from Covid in total.
    More people die in 5 days than from Covid in total.
    I don't see you lamenting the ~160,000 dead every day, are you a hypocrite?
    Who says I don't lament those deaths? I do tend to more vocally lament then avoidable deaths, however, especially since the final toll isn't yet complete. If we hadn't been vocal, if changes hadn't been made, those ~730k deaths would be more like 10s of millions right now. And while I don't personally know anybody who has died, I do know several people who have been very sick with it. And I'm understandably concerned that more of my older relatives will not be as lucky, because some nitwits around the world are convinced that everything's going to simply decrease until it's all gone and refuse to take easy precautions.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    At this point I'm about 99.9% certain you don't have children, that's why you're so callous. And probably you're from a rich family and never faced poverty yourself.
    Your assumptions continue to embarrass you.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    But you know who still is? 2,700,000 Americans who have already recovered, and 320,000,000 more Americans who won't get sick. But you still want them to suffer.
    You keep trying to push that embarrassing strawman, but obvious deflections are obvious. You believe, without proof, that 320m more Americans won't get sick. I'm trying to prevent their suffering by disabusing anyone of the notion that your ridiculous assertion is correct, so that they can continue to take adequate precautionary measures.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Anti-lockdowners and anti-maskers.
    Again, they didn't riot. Again, their motives were hardly altruistic.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    260083 > 254176, that's a fact.
    Perfect segue for an update from the earlier portion of this post: the daily total for today is up to 203k with several hours remaining. Argentina posted their third highest daily total, and Peru, Venezuela, and chunks of the US still haven't reported. It definite seems to me as if we're heading for at least a total of 215k today.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    What's your fantasy, we'll all die?
    Oh, puhleeze, your deflections are tiresome. But if someone were to fantasize about everyone dying, they'd simply just agree with your position and declare premature victory over COVID.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  8. #18048
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    That, right there, is a hypothesis. You don't have to firmly state that you believe that it's the truth in order for it to be a hypothesis, but any proposed hypothetical explanation (even if you don't flesh out the explanation with actual logical reasoning) is, by definition, a hypothesis. Scientists quite often, in fact, make bold hypotheses only to then turn around and disprove them. That's also a foundational concept of propositional calculus, where you often assume a condition merely to disprove its possibility. Eliminating hypotheses often advances knowledge just as effectively as proving hypotheses.

    However, if you're admitting that the hypothesis of a soft cap for virus transmission is disproved, then we can just move on.
    I'm quoting this out of order because this is the really interesting part. Firstly, OK, to save my time let's call it a hypothesis, you flatter me, I begrudgingly accept the credit. Funny that you claim that it's wrong after spending so many words to explain why it's right

    Now important question: how do you plan to prove the softcap hypothesis to be wrong without waiting a year+ until the pandemic is over? (actual English language over, not your laughably nonsensical "peak X means that X is at its minimum" over)


    And since you seem to enjoy it, I'll answer the rest.
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Go ahead. Find any time where I said 260,083 was smaller than 254,176. I'll wait.

    Oh, but no, I won't wait, because you know what else isn't smaller than 254,176? That would be 255,621.

    "Why is 255,621 important?" I'll imagine you asking, since the truth is that you're probably just grinding your teeth<..>

    I need an extra large, extra smug smilie here
    After all this pain, sweat and tears shed by you, tell the class which is bigger, 260083 or 255621?

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Language is fluid; "Literal" and "figurative" are both real concepts (despite the fact that people quite literally misuse the word "literally" at least as frequently as it's used correctly). Something can quite easily be figuratively over without being literally over. My mistake was assuming that you could tell the difference when the difference was blatant. Obviously, I gave you too much credit.

    Regardless, at no time did I actually believe that you believed that this was literally over just because you mistakenly believe that it has peaked, so you're just running yourself around in circles, embarrassing yourself, for absolutely no reason. Give it up already.
    Oxford dictionary tells me "to peak" means "Reach a highest point, either of a specified value or at a specified time."
    Cambridge dictionary tells me it means "to reach the highest, strongest, or best point, value, or level of skill".
    There is no "context" where 'to peak' can mean "the opposite of 'to peak'" like you're suggesting. Just acknowledge you're wrong, already. Or keep making a clown of yourself in front of everyone, I don't care.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Lulz, the irony. The phrase "it seems the world as a whole has peaked" is still an objective statement, whereas "it seems to me that the world as a whole has peaked" is a subjective statement. "It seems" does not automatically make a phrase subjective. "It seems to everyone that you're wrong" would be an objective statement.

    Regardless, you literally just said "my point is, the world has peaked 11 days ago". So... where's that subjectivity now?
    7-day rolling average of daily cases for Covid-19 on planet Earth has peaked on July 30th. That's 12 days ago. Objectively. Go ahead and deny it again, we both know you hate this fact

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    And while I don't personally know anybody who has died,
    QED.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Your assumptions continue to embarrass you.
    No? You have children and want them to be poorer than you are?

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    You believe, without proof, that 320m more Americans won't get sick. I'm trying to prevent their suffering by disabusing anyone of the notion that your ridiculous assertion is correct, so that they can continue to take adequate precautionary measures.
    I believe that case count in USA will reach 10 million, up from current 5. Some of these people will test positive without being sick, but some people will get sick without being registered as a Covid case, so it will approximately cancel out. Following me so far? 330 million total minus 10 million sick equals 320 million of never sick. Understand now?

    Note that I'm all for social distancing, mask usage and cancellation of super spreader events. That's not too much to ask of these 320 million healthy people to save some lives, I'm doing the same where I live. Competent countries do well with just these 3 measures (closed borders is not personal). But forcing additional unnecessary restrictions onto these innocent people, pushing them into misery and poverty, that's cruel and I don't approve.

    It's especially bad when you think about those 2.7+ million (and soon to be more) who got Covid, survived, and now still have to suffer from restrictions they don't need.

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Oh, puhleeze,
    Tell me this: if cases were actually declining, would that be good or bad? I'm saying it's good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  9. #18049
    I live in NYC and we had it bad here, especially nursing homes. I traveled to FL just to get away from all these. Now, as soon as I came back to NYC, all of the sudden Florida has one of the largest numbers for COVID. It is definitely an issue, but at times I think how much politics is involved here. NYC is slowly going back to business, restaurants, brick and mortar businesses and parks are slowly getting back to normal. We'll see what happens if our mayor and governor will reopen school and what would be the effect of it all.

  10. #18050
    Yeah no, I would never take that vaccine without thorough testing by an agency I trust.
    No faith in Russia ensuring it is properly safe.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  11. #18051
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    Quote Originally Posted by GaryFuentes View Post
    I live in NYC and we had it bad here, especially nursing homes. I traveled to FL just to get away from all these. Now, as soon as I came back to NYC, all of the sudden Florida has one of the largest numbers for COVID. It is definitely an issue, but at times I think how much politics is involved here. NYC is slowly going back to business, restaurants, brick and mortar businesses and parks are slowly getting back to normal. We'll see what happens if our mayor and governor will reopen school and what would be the effect of it all.
    As a resident of Florida, fuck you for traveling during a pandemic. You and everyone else that packed this state out this summer.
    Quote Originally Posted by Venara
    Half this forum would be permanently banned if we did everything some of our users regularly demand or otherwise expect us to do.
    Actual blue mod response on doing what they volunteered to do. No wonder this place is infested.

  12. #18052
    Herald of the Titans CostinR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Yeah no, I would never take that vaccine without thorough testing by an agency I trust.
    No faith in Russia ensuring it is properly safe.
    Putin announced his daughter has taken the vaccine.

    That's more significant then some might realize. In Eastern Europe, especially for families like Putin's, to put your children on health on the line is fairly extraordinary.

    Wait and see is my point of view.
    "Life is one long series of problems to solve. The more you solve, the better a man you become.... Tribulations spawn in life and over and over again we must stand our ground and face them."

  13. #18053
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    Putin announced his daughter has taken the vaccine.

    That's more significant then some might realize. In Eastern Europe, especially for families like Putin's, to put your children on health on the line is fairly extraordinary.

    Wait and see is my point of view.
    Going to need proof that his daughter actually took the "vaccine" and not just some placebo or just a claim since no one saw it happen.

  14. #18054
    The thing about Russia is that this could be true but they are habitual and serial liars so I simply won't believe them.

    Even if they 'proved' it I'd err on the side of nothe believing them.

  15. #18055
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    Florida has nearly 6,000 more cases today. They are averaging 25,000 cases per million people. 21.5 million people in Florida. Meanwhile in Canada, we are averaging 3,800 cases per million people with a population of 35 million.

    So I guess I have to ask, what the fuck are they doing in Florida?

  16. #18056
    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    Russia has approved the world’s first vaccine for covid. Lots of worry about how safe it is considering how much they rushed through development, but Putin assures us it passed all the necessary tests.
    Haven't the doctors trying to blow the whistle on the situation in Russia like...repeatedly fallen out of windows from multiple stories up? You know, accidentally?

  17. #18057
    Quote Originally Posted by cors8 View Post
    Going to need proof that his daughter actually took the "vaccine" and not just some placebo or just a claim since no one saw it happen.
    Well, the minimum would be to know her name.

  18. #18058
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    Putin announced his daughter has taken the vaccine.

    That's more significant then some might realize. In Eastern Europe, especially for families like Putin's, to put your children on health on the line is fairly extraordinary.

    Wait and see is my point of view.
    And when an independent outside doctor verifies that this has indeed happened, I will believe he did so. And I still wouldn't be willing to take it.

    Words are cheap, its easy to say "I (or someone else) took X, everything is fine" when we have no way of knowing if that statement is true and every reason to suspect it is not.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  19. #18059
    Quote Originally Posted by Deja Thoris View Post
    The thing about Russia is that this could be true but they are habitual and serial liars so I simply won't believe them.
    Even if you completely believe Russia it doesn't change that much.

    https://sputniknews.com/russia/20200...red-in-russia/
    says that the vaccine isn't for people over 60 year (although almost all the deaths are in this group) and that it will not be available to the broader public this year as the "introduction into civil circulation" according to official registration document is at the start of 2021.
    (There are some conflicting reports on when it become available, there are some claims that mass production will begin in september and "wider vaccinations in October", but "wider" is a loose term https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN24X3KO )

    Some other vaccines have likely undergone enough of phase 3 at that time, and companies are also building production facilities for them that are supposed to be ready by then. Obviously they may fail in phase 3 - and/or the Russian vaccine fail in practice.

  20. #18060
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    However, to say that New York (and to a lesser extent some other cities like Chicago) would have avoided 22k deaths if they followed SF's lead is also oversimplifying it, as NY had those deaths earlier, and we believe that treatment is now better (and one could understand if people are more relaxed now in NY as the outbreak is less active there).
    The first confirmed case in the Bay Area was in February. No confirmed cases in NY yet at that time.

    The biggest difference between NY and SF is on how they respond to the pandemic. SF started way early.

    December 31 - Colfax, director of SF Dept. of Public Health briefed the mayor that the City should start preparing for Covid-19.

    January 21 - Emergency preparedness plans were activated simultaneously at three major San Francisco institutions: the teaching hospital at UCSF Medical Center, SF General, and Department of Public Health. The two hospitals canceled elective surgeries and cleared entire floors to create surge wards filled with intensive-care beds. The health department streamlined command and control to focus the entire department on corona virus.

    January 27 - Mayor Breed activated the city government's own Emergency Operations Center, preparing to coordinate a response across departments, plan outreach efforts, and commandeer city property and resources.

    February 25 - With only 53 confirmed cases in the US, 10 in California, and still not a single one confirmed in SF, Breed declared a local state of emergency. Gutsy move by her.

    February 26 - 28 - Twitter’s Jack Dorsey told all of his employees to work from home. By the end of that week, Lyft, Uber, Google, FB, Apple and every single businesses that could do so had done the same. Collectively taking out 100,000 workers out of circulation.

    March 6 - Supervisor of the SF District which includes Chinatown issued stay-at-home order for his District with the approval of the mayor. Which probably partially account for this "looking at SF itself the number of cases also varies significantly on a small scale, with Nob Hill reporting almost twice the rate of cases as nearby Chinatown." Also, residents of Chinatown were wearing masks since January and February. Well ahead of the City's ordinance requiring face coverings in late May.

    March 13 - The city's health officer joined a conference call with six other Bay Area health officers. By California law, they have the authority to issue legally binding health orders. By the evening, they issued the stay-at-home order. Breed did the same an hour later.


    There are several other factors involved. To name a few,

    SF was the epicenter of the AID pandemic that took the life of thousands of its residence. There were a lot of institutional knowledge on how to deal with a pandemic built into the system.

    Young and healthy population with low instances of obesity and diabetic.

    Highly educated population that immediately recognized the need for mask and social distancing. Not a lot of outrage.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2020-08-11 at 05:12 PM.

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