Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Granyala]

You mean $12.2 billion dollars.

*chuckles* I just thought "hey 12 bucks is pretty cheap"

[Forogil]

Statistically they are more likely to catch it than spread it if they go from mexico to the USA

I believe the previous statement about illegal immigrants wasn't about the US but somewhere in Eurasia.

However, Mexico likely has about the same number of cases per population as the US and likely more dead per capita; they just lack the testing capacity.

[Nellise]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...at-cost-public

German group did some analysis on the Sturges Motorcycle Rally.

Using an average estimate of $46K spent per positive covid-19 case (many may cost little to nothing, but some may rack up massive bills well over a million) and using cell phone data from non-locals and other data, they pegged the cost to public health systems around $12.2 dollars. That's with 1 dead and 260 cases spread across 11 states so far. As time goes on we're seeing more cases as predicted, and much like the stupid Maine wedding we'll likely be seeing cases from secondary or tertiary contacts who probably have never even been to Sturges before.

I read through the study and they listed 7 counties with the most people that went to Sturgis and found they had an increase of 13.5% cases during the Sturgis rally period (August 3 through September 2). One of those counties was Maricopa County, Arizona. This is the data from there: https://phdata.maricopa.gov/Dashboar...se&vo=viewonly. Using the 7 day average, on August 3rd, there were 771 cases, on September 2nd it was down to 278, or a 65% decrease.

Here's another of those 7 counties, Adams County, Colorado: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...y/adams-county
If you notice, they had a large outbreak the last week of July and the numbers have slowly come down from that. It's hard to see how Sturgis caused that when it happened before the rally even began.

Here's a third, Jefferson County, Colorado: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...fferson-county.
It had the same thing as Adams County where there was a spike in the last week of July.

Here's the fourth county, Weld County, Colorado: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...ty/Weld-county
It had a spike the first week of August, ending around August 5th. While Sturgis started pre-events on August 3rd, I doubt that would be the cause of cases in another state that same week since it takes about 5 days for symptoms to shown on average.

The fifth county is Clark County, Nevada: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...y/clark-county
It had a massive spike in mid-July and has slowly been decreasing, with some odd reporting spikes, since then.

The 6th county is Anoka county, Minnesota: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...y/anoka-county
Again, it started increasing significantly in mid-July and has sort of leveled off since then.

The 7th county they list as Campbell county, Wisconsin, which doesn't seem to exist (there is a town named Campbell but no county).

None of these counties show any evidence of a 13% increase if you look at the real data and not some models.

[Edge-]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/polit...eet/index.html

Republican conspiracy theorist running for the House, who won her primary, argues that children should not wear masks -

Greene claimed that masks are "unhealthy for their psychological, emotional, and educational growth" and "forcing boys to wear masks is emasculating."

Meanwhile, actual doctors who give a shit about kids -

Public health officials say masks can help prevent the spread of the virus, which has infected more than 6.3 million people in the US and claimed the lives of about 190,000, according to CNN's latest figures. The CDC recommends that people 2 and older "wear masks in public settings around people who don't live in your household and when you can't stay 6 feet away from others." The CDC acknowledges in its guidance that masks may not be possible in some circumstances that could exacerbate physical or mental conditions.

More than 513,000 US children have been diagnosed with Covid-19, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association. Children represent nearly 10% of all reported cases in the US, according to the groups' report released Tuesday. They found that 70,630 new child cases were reported from August 20 through September 3, a 16% increase in child cases over two weeks.

Culturally, the US cannot effectively combat a pandemic. These aren't the rantings of a random nobody on Twitter, but for a House candidate that won her primary and has secured the support of the leader of her party and current POTUS. She's in a safe Republican district and will probably win.

This isn't something that the US isn't capable of. Quite the contrary, the US has repeatedly proven itself capable of amazing achievements requiring great self-sacrifice. No, it's a large part of the country choosing not to participate in a global fight against a pandemic for purely political reasons.

[Easo]

I would probably be more upset if this wasn't such a common thing in the US. Yet we wonder why our healthcare cost have gotten so out of hand?

That's truly amazing. A fucked up amazing, but amazing nonetheless. And USA, it makes it really, really hard not to bash with every word imaginable.

[Edge-]

That's truly amazing. A fucked up amazing, but amazing nonetheless. And USA, it makes it really, really hard not to bash with every word imaginable.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...hospital-bill/

62 days in the hospital with the virus, $1.1M explanation of benefits from the hospital. Thankfully he has Medicare and they paid the bill (well, US taxpayers did), but holy shit is the explanation of charges bonkers.

I mean I get it, health care can get expensive as hell and all. But our weird franken-system of shifting around costs left and right so that people pay out the nose for some things, insurance pays out the nose for other things, and sometimes neither pays very much, leads to these kinds of batshit crazy bills.

[PhaelixWW]

Let's hope this is nothing major...

The Hill: AstraZeneca vaccine trial paused to investigate 'a potentially unexplained illness'

One of the leading coronavirus vaccine clinical trials, from AstraZeneca, has been paused to investigate a “potentially unexplained illness” in one of the participants, the company said Tuesday.

The announcement could lead to a concerning setback to a high-profile coronavirus vaccine clinical trial, though much remains unknown, and it is not clear how much of an impediment the development will be.

“As part of the ongoing randomised, controlled global trials of the Oxford coronavirus vaccine, our standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data,” AstraZeneca said in a statement. “This is a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.”

The statement said it is possible the illness in one of the participants in the trial is not even caused by the vaccine. “In large trials illnesses will happen by chance but must be independently reviewed to check this carefully,” the company said. “We are working to expedite the review of the single event to minimise any potential impact on the trial timeline.”

Stat, which first reported the pause in the trial, reported that the participant who had the “suspected serious adverse reaction” is in the United Kingdom.

AstraZeneca is one of three companies that have phase three coronavirus vaccine trials ongoing in the United States. Two other trials are being conducted for potential vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.

This is the first time any of those three trials have been known to have been paused for a safety investigation.

The announcement illustrates the importance of a careful vaccine process to check safety and efficacy, and comes on the same day that AstraZeneca, as well as eight other drug companies, issued a rare joint statement pledging to follow the science and avoid politics, amid President Trump floating the idea of a pre-election approval of a vaccine.

“We will need more information but obviously this is concerning,” tweeted Carlos del Rio, a vaccine expert at Emory University.

[Easo]

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...hospital-bill/

62 days in the hospital with the virus, $1.1M explanation of benefits from the hospital. Thankfully he has Medicare and they paid the bill (well, US taxpayers did), but holy shit is the explanation of charges bonkers.

I mean I get it, health care can get expensive as hell and all. But our weird franken-system of shifting around costs left and right so that people pay out the nose for some things, insurance pays out the nose for other things, and sometimes neither pays very much, leads to these kinds of batshit crazy bills.

Make it stop, make it stooop!
Well, as long as said taxpayers are convinced that this is fine, not much will change. I mean I understand that 62 days in hospital will cost more than couple hundred bucks, but a million is a different story. It is not like they transplanted his heart, lungs, kidneys and liver, but mostly kept him on life support pumping oxygen/drugs and probably with someone always near him.

I think I said it before, but I am not sure if the pandemic will actually change much regarding healthcare systems in USA (and elsewhere, let's be fair), even as their shortcomings and failings are now shown so clearly.

[Zantos]

Let's hope this is nothing major...

The Hill: AstraZeneca vaccine trial paused to investigate 'a potentially unexplained illness'

This is why I have been saying for awhile that we absolutely, cannot rush this. We could create something far worse in people if we just push an untested drug out. Its why anyone with a brain should flat out say no to any vaccine that they attempt to give someone for this. Until we can fully test it and ensure its 100% safe and will not create something worse, they shouldn't be doing human trials. I get this is serious and we need a way to slow this pandemic, but potentially killing Millions with an untested vaccine is not the way.

[postman1782]

Hard to say, but it is why they have clinical trials. A good reason why we shouldn't rush human trials.The adverse affects can sometimes be just as bad, and could even worse.

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In other Covid-19 Karma News. Not that I would actually with a deadly disease on anyone, and not that I'd lose any sleep over such a homophobic religious leader receiving such Karma.

Church Leader Who Blamed Coronavirus on Gay Marriage Contracts COVID-19

It is also why NO ONE should trust Trump trying to rush any vaccine before the election so he can try to win the election. They will just end up with some bad side effects, because most vaccines take a long ass time to approve one.

[Lynarii]

This is why I have been saying for awhile that we absolutely, cannot rush this. We could create something far worse in people if we just push an untested drug out. Its why anyone with a brain should flat out say no to any vaccine that they attempt to give someone for this. Until we can fully test it and ensure its 100% safe and will not create something worse, they shouldn't be doing human trials. I get this is serious and we need a way to slow this pandemic, but potentially killing Millions with an untested vaccine is not the way.

You.... realize that human trials are a part of 'fully test it and ensure it's 100% safe' right? Testing on non-humans can only get you so far, even the closest of animals to us are NOT us, and sometimes those differences matter quite a bit. It is not possible to be 100% certain that it is safe for humans without a human taking it.

[PACOX]

You.... realize that human trials are a part of 'fully test it and ensure it's 100% safe' right? Testing on non-humans can only get you so far, even the closest of animals to us are NOT us, and sometimes those differences matter quite a bit. It is not possible to be 100% certain that it is safe for humans without a human taking it.

Uh, I don't get it? Are you disagreeing with them because they said nothing about human trials? What they said lines up with the need for testing.
Also, nothing they said is wrong. Quite a few of the vaccine candidates are RNA and DNA vaccines. RNA vaccines have never been approved for humans because of adverse side effects, there are no approved DNA vaccines in the US.

What scientists are doing is quite groundbreaking and will change immunology but it's going to take time. The last thing they want to do is make things worse.

[Skulltaker]

While 10% is an unsettling force to be reckoned with, it's far from a guaranteed outcome.

Correct, but you also have to keep in mind that this virus is a) spreading rather fast, and unseen at that and b) it looks like you can get infected again, and it remains to be seen if subsequent infections have milder symptoms. If mortality is 10%, and you can get infected every few months, it starts to look rather dire. Lots of speculation here, though. Just for the complete picture. People pretend that you take a one-time gamble with mortality rates. You don't. A returning 10% is a lot scarier, especially considering that you might look at permanent or long-term damages, and so on.

You.... realize that human trials are a part of 'fully test it and ensure it's 100% safe' right? Testing on non-humans can only get you so far, even the closest of animals to us are NOT us, and sometimes those differences matter quite a bit. It is not possible to be 100% certain that it is safe for humans without a human taking it.

Correct. And even with human trials, you cannot rule out side-effects. Because every human body is different. Age, lifestyle, sex, general health, there are billions of factors that contribute to your body's response to any chemical you ingest. Even very basic, everyday drugs can have devastating effects on some individuals. Ever heard of Stevens-Johnson Syndrome? Probably not. It's a disease, most often brought on by an allergic reaction to a medication. While it can have bacterial or viral causes as well, bad reactions to medication are the most common cause. It can be brought on by Paracetamol, which is a non-prescription drug (at least here in Germany, no idea about the US), and it can be fatal.

But it happens incredibly rarely. It is so rare that the drug is deemed safe for consumption without medical counsel (although I'd like to stress you shouldn't take any medication without consulting a doctor, please.)

This is why clinical studies take time. It's pretty hard to understand without having an education in modern medicine, but with many drugs, adverse effects can take years to form. And in addition to the above-mentioned factors for the patient, there is dosage of the drug that needs consideration, other medication the patient might be taking, and so on. Way too many people think 'what's the problem, someone pops the pill and you observe what happens!' It's not that easy.

Now, vaccines are not exactly drugs in the broader sense, but their development shouldn't be rushed. Developing a vaccine should always undergo the same scrutiny as any other drug. We don't know what happened to the patient with the bad reaction, of course, but if AstraZeneca saw grounds to stop the trial, they are probably certain that it has to do with the vaccine in trial. Certain enough to not risk putting other testers in potential harm.

[Zantos]

You.... realize that human trials are a part of 'fully test it and ensure it's 100% safe' right? Testing on non-humans can only get you so far, even the closest of animals to us are NOT us, and sometimes those differences matter quite a bit. It is not possible to be 100% certain that it is safe for humans without a human taking it.

I realize that fully. However, they shouldn't be doing them so early and without clearing the others yet. They need to test them more thoroughly before putting them into live individuals. We can't have one of the final step be rushed to.

[Poopymonster]

It is also why NO ONE should trust Trump trying to rush any vaccine before the election so he can try to win the election. They will just end up with some bad side effects, because most vaccines take a long ass time to approve one.

Best bad guy there is describes how Trump will do it.

[Coolthulhu]

Let's hope this is nothing major...

The Hill: AstraZeneca vaccine trial paused to investigate 'a potentially unexplained illness'

Probably not per se, it happens all the time in vaccine trials. The mere thing that it happened is a major setback though - typically such shutdowns last 6 to 8 months, this one could last less due to the emergency, but every day counts. Hopefully the independent commission will be quick and efficient.

In other Covid-19 Karma News. Not that I would actually wish a deadly disease on anyone, and not that I'd lose any sleep over such a homophobic religious leader receiving such Karma.

Church Leader Who Blamed Coronavirus on Gay Marriage Contracts COVID-19

Such a compassionate figure, that one. Same guy who said that the population of Donbass deserved to pay their betrayal towards Kyiv's authority with suffering and blood. But let's not be barbaric, I "wish him well" and hope for a "speedy recovery".

[Logwyn]

No pattern. Serious or mild symptoms. As little as 2 months.

Pretty much in the dark still.

[Granyala]

Correct, but you also have to keep in mind that this virus is a) spreading rather fast, and unseen at that and b) it looks like you can get infected again, and it remains to be seen if subsequent infections have milder symptoms. If mortality is 10%, and you can get infected every few months, it starts to look rather dire. Lots of speculation here, though. Just for the complete picture. People pretend that you take a one-time gamble with mortality rates. You don't. A returning 10% is a lot scarier, especially considering that you might look at permanent or long-term damages, and so on.

Definitely. Repeated 10% chances would suck, big time.

But that would also rule out any form of immunization via technological means, since we cannot produce new vaccines within months. Even flu vaccines pose a challenge and are often not really all that effective, depending on which strain ultimately wins out and whether the predictions match up.
IF (and I stress the if here, since this is pure fiction) SARS-CoV-2 would be able to re-infect us within months and hit similarly hard like the first time, we basically have little choice but to either spend the rest of our natural existence with these damn measures or just let it run free and accept the death toll.

[PhaelixWW]

Paracetamol, which is a non-prescription drug (at least here in Germany, no idea about the US)

Paracetamol = acetaminophen (Tylenol, namely, and other generics), which is probably the most common non-prescription pain relieving drug in the US, along with ibuprofen (Advil). Aspirin and naproxen (Aleve) round out the top four.

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IF (and I stress the if here, since this is pure fiction) SARS-CoV-2 would be able to re-infect us within months and hit similarly hard like the first time, we basically have little choice but to either spend the rest of our natural existence with these damn measures or just let it run free and accept the death toll.

This is not really true, though. Vaccines typically provide a much stronger immune response than simple recovery. As such, even if a normal illness provided antibody immunity for only 4-6 months, a vaccine might possibly render protection for over a year. At that point, we'd just have to make it a yearly booster shot, just like the flu shot.

[Granyala]

Good point. Hadn't considered that.