Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Granyala]

I'm in Europe too. Here autumn starts September 21st.

Wasn't it Sept 23rd?

[breadisfunny]

You might want to make that 28 days. And consider pursuing legal action against your live-in sister.

not sure what that would accomplish considering its just my word against hers. parents don't even think of this action as a crime really just to suck it up and deal with it and that it was my fault for going by her bedroom when i pretty much have to to go get a bottle of water. my sister is hugging her kids without her mask wtf?

[Coolthulhu]

not sure what that would accomplish considering its just my word against hers. parents don't even think of this action as a crime really just to suck it up and deal with it and that it was my fault for going by her bedroom when i pretty much have to to go get a bottle of water. my sister is hugging her kids without her mask wtf?

It might get social services involved and at possibly scare some sense into your sister and parents. Failing that I'd get out of that house ASAP.

[Forogil]

I'm in Europe too. Here autumn starts September 21st.

I doubt that is official, The Netherlands seem particularly confused about seasons.
https://www.netherlands-tourism.com/...e-netherlands/
"Summer The high season runs from June to August and is the most popular season for tourists."
https://support.utrechtsummerschool....lands-Utrecht-
"Summer (July – September)"
https://www.holiday-weather.com/country/netherlands
"Summer, from June till mid-September", "Autumn, from August till November"

Basically there are multiple season-definition used throughout Europe (and in the rest of world people don't even keep to four seasons), e.g.:
Meteorological or Month-based where Autumn is normally September-November.
Other meteorological where it depends on the weather.
Astronomical starting Autumn at Equinox and ending at midwinter.
Solar where Autumn is centred around Equinox, and winter has the middle at midwinter.

[Edge-]

https://kstp.com/news/mdh-armed-resi...-2020/5867003/

A credential team of medical professionals in Minnesota were doing randomized neighborhood screenings to get more data on the spread of the virus in the state and had to stop.

Because apparently a group of armed nutjobs confronted them and the team didn't want a confrontation and left.

Details are still scant, but I'd put money on these being more of the conspiracy theorist nutjobs thinking the state was infecting people rather than trying to help save lives by getting better data to make more informed decisions with.

[Masark]

https://kstp.com/news/mdh-armed-resi...-2020/5867003/

A credential team of medical professionals in Minnesota were doing randomized neighborhood screenings to get more data on the spread of the virus in the state and had to stop.

Because apparently a group of armed nutjobs confronted them and the team didn't want a confrontation and left.

Details are still scant, but I'd put money on these being more of the conspiracy theorist nutjobs thinking the state was infecting people rather than trying to help save lives by getting better data to make more informed decisions with.

When we get a vaccine for this virus, these vanilla ISIS wackjobs are going to be murdering vaccine workers.

[PhaelixWW]

No. I'm in Europe, we use words in their originally intended meanings. Last day of summer is last day of August. Kids go to school on the 1st day of autumn.

No, sorry, that's only in eastern Europe. The majority of Europe uses astronomical seasons. And lulz, your attempt to claim "originally intended meanings" is ridiculous. The Gregorian calendar is only 500 years old, and even the Julian calendar upon which it is based is only about 2000 years old. But civilizations have been measuring the solstices and equinoxes and tying seasonal significance to them for at least 6000 years.

...which are...? (inb4 some more unrelated stuff like autumn rise which everyone was expecting)

Except you weren't expecting them. Not only did you say that the world had peaked, which would mean that the world's cases were going to decline (which they didn't), but you specifically stated several times that you predicted that you didn't think they would go back up past the July mark.

Let's roll the tape yet again, shall we?

First:

It could be just a local peak, hence "it seems". But most likely it will stay that way.

This is you saying that you didn't even think that it would what you call a "local peak". It's clear from this that you thought cases would continue to decline. You specifically predicted that that would be the case, despite your hilarious attempts later to backpedal from this obviously false position.

And then:

Another peak could come in the winter if the second wave actually happens, which is quite possible. Or maybe India could keep rising and carry the world instead of USA, exceeding current peak after only 2 weeks of decline. I said explicitly that it could happen. I just doubt it will.

This is you not talking about an autumn rise, but a winter one. You specifically pointed to a possible second wave in winter, not a continued first wave in autumn.

This is also you trying to point to India alone as the reason for a potential immediate surge. But you specifically predicted that it wouldn't happen.

And despite my use of graphics to point that even without the fluctuations of the top three countries, the rest of the world has been steadily rising this whole time, you specifically ignore the direct evidence of your error.

And then, after all that, you're now attempting to backtrack to "I only meant summer", which also conveniently ignores that there was precisely one day (Aug 14th, incidentally after your initial claim of a July 31 "peak") that had a higher 7-day average than the last day of what you're attempting to call summer (Aug 31) as well as the fact that the first day of what you're attempting to call autumn (Sep 1) set a new record, and that not a single day since has been lower than any day before September.

You've been so obviously wrong in so many obviously quantifiable ways that it's a wonder you're still choosing to embarrass yourself over this.

[Forogil]

No, sorry, that's only in eastern Europe. The majority of Europe uses astronomical seasons. And lulz, your attempt to claim "originally intended meanings" is ridiculous. The Gregorian calendar is only 500 years old, and even the Julian calendar upon which it is based is only about 2000 years old. But civilizations have been measuring the solstices and equinoxes and tying seasonal significance to them for at least 6000 years.

Sometimes, but not necessarily in that way.

In many parts of medieval western the four season calendar in Europe was the Solar calendar where mid-summer is in the middle of summer - and not all civilisations tie seasons to solstices and equinoxes; because it doesn't make sense if you have six, or three seasons (and you only need two of them for two-season systems) - and closer to the equator the solstice doesn't matter that much.

The Beltane celebration in Ireland is sort of based on the Solar calendar. And it seems the ancient Roman calendar had the year, spring, and military season start in March - after the unnamed winter months.

I don't know when "Astronomical seasons" took root, and why Americans are so attached to it. In most parts season-starts aren't that important and accurate so "autumn months" meaning September-November is good enough - and in many traditional agrarian society seasons are based around the actual seasons of the crops.

Added: I tentatively blame the french revolution.

[PhaelixWW]

In many parts of medieval western the four season calendar in Europe was the Solar calendar where mid-summer is in the middle of summer

The decline of science and knowledge during the medieval period of Europe is well documented, sure. The Romans were using astronomical seasons centuries before.

and not all civilisations tie seasons to solstices and equinoxes; because it doesn't make sense if you have six, or three seasons (and you only need all of them for two-season systems) - and closer to the equator the solstice doesn't matter that much.

You're just arguing for argument's sake here; nobody mentioned "all civilizations". Most of Europe (especially western Europe) uses astronomical seasons, as does North America (who got it from Europe).

The Beltane celebration in Ireland is sort of based on the Solar calendar. And it seems the ancient Roman calendar had the year, spring, and military season start in March - after the unnamed winter months.

Yes, the ancient Romans once celebrated mid-March, AKA the ides of March, or March 15th, as the beginning of the new year, not the beginning of March. The full moon at the ides of March was an easy way for everyone to distinguish the date.

I don't know when "Astronomical seasons" took root, and why Americans are so attached to it.

The American colonies got it from their European roots.

In most parts season-starts aren't that important and accurate so "autumn months" meaning September-November is good enough - and in many traditional agrarian society seasons are based around the actual seasons of the crops.

None of which matters to the actual topic at hand. I'm not arguing that the astronomical season method is better, merely that it's prevalent in most of Europe and North America, at least, and likely is the case for 95%+ of the visitors of this forum.

And as I pointed out before, the idea of summer starting on September 1st doesn't even really matter for the argument it was being used in putative "support" of.

[Forogil]

The decline of science and knowledge during the medieval period of Europe is well documented, sure. The Romans were using astronomical seasons centuries before.

Based on what sources?

You're just arguing for argument's sake here; nobody mentioned "all civilizations". Most of Europe (especially western Europe) uses astronomical seasons, as does North America (who got it from Europe).

I don't see that it's that clear in Europe outside of France.

Yes, the ancient Romans once celebrated mid-March, AKA the ides of March, or March 15th, as the beginning of the new year, not the beginning of March. The full moon at the ides of March was an easy way for everyone to distinguish the date.

Ok, let me see if I understand this: the year started in the middle of a month at the full moon, which means that it was based on the equinoxes that aren't aligned to the lunar cycle (and later it therefore started on the vernal equinox officially on March 25th; not March 15th). (And their calendars were so unstable with respect to everything that I don't see how that strengthens your argument.)

None of which matters to the actual topic at hand. I'm not arguing that the astronomical season method is better, merely that it's prevalent in most of Europe and North America, at least, and likely is the case for 95%+ of the visitors of this forum.

And I'm merely stating that the above is incorrect. It's not better, and it's not that prevalent in Europe, and it's therefore frequently causing problems on these forums.

And as previously indicated I tentatively believe that it gained ground due to the french revolution, which inspired the US.

In most parts of the world the dates aren't that important - if people say that you get commonly get the cold, flu, and possibly covid-19 during fall and winter, they mean roughly that period - not some exact dates; same with harvest in traditional agrarian societies.

[Easo]

Can you stop talking about calendar? It is getting ridiculous.

[Corvus]

Where I live, Western Australia, a lot of people are finding that using the indigenous Australians 6 season calendar for the region works much better. Turns out pasting the European 4 season calendar doesn't work for local conditions so much.

But back to the virus - The US has passed 200K dead (though it is probably much higher), world deaths are rapidly closing in on 1 million (but once again there is a lot of under reporting of excess deaths) and Europe is picking up steam for its second wave just in time for flu season.

Meanwhile the outbreak in Melbourne seems to have been brought under control thanks to a lockdown. Lot of people were not happy, but going from 700 cases a day at its peak back to around a dozen shows that it works. Sadly a lot of people died in the meantime.

So, yes, lockdowns work. Very effectively.

What I find so confusing is that so-called 'patriots' who would supposedly do anything for their country are refusing to do anything to help their country.

[Forogil]

And meanwhile the world passed 30 million reported cases, actually at 31.2 now; and is headed for 1 million reported deaths in about a week.
The US passed 7 million reported cases, and as previous posted stated 200 k reported deaths.

And protests against lockdowns in Madrid protest that they target poor neighbourhoods; we will see how this fall and winter turn out.

- - - Updated - - -

And protests against lockdowns in Madrid protest that they target poor neighbourhoods; we will see how this fall and winter turn out.

And CDC updated their guidelines (compared to a few days ago - thx wayback machine): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...d-spreads.html

They now added:

It is possible that COVID-19 may spread through the droplets and airborne particles that are formed when a person who has COVID-19 coughs, sneezes, sings, talks, or breathes. There is growing evidence that droplets and airborne particles can remain suspended in the air and be breathed in by others, and travel distances beyond 6 feet (for example, during choir practice, in restaurants, or in fitness classes). In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk.

And they don't call it social distancing but use the term physical distancing (while linking to social distancing guidelines) and write:

During times of increased physical distancing, it is still important to maintain social connections and care for your mental health.

WHO switched to calling it physical distancing for this reason back sometimes during the spring.

They now add that

Masks should not replace other prevention measures.

And they finally figured out that the following seems like a good idea:

Stay home and isolate from others when sick.

Use air purifiers to help reduce airborne germs in indoor spaces.

I find it amazing that so many of these changes weren't done earlier.

[tehealadin]

I will be curious to see what the UK government announces this week. I see that the scientific advisors are getting very worried about this second wave and the situation we could be in come mid October. I would still be surprised if we entered another full lockdown, though it is being floated.

[Granyala]

I will be curious to see what the UK government announces this week. I see that the scientific advisors are getting very worried about this second wave and the situation we could be in come mid October. I would still be surprised if we entered another full lockdown, though it is being floated.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Hmm lots of positive test results but your death count does not seem to respond at all. Are you sure you are having a second wave?
To initiate a lockdown would be rather ... well hilarious at this point. You can do that one people actually start dying.

[Granyala]

Why keep people in fear if the threat has seemingly been neutered to that degree? I don't get it.

No I think it has to be sth else going on. If all our treatment were so super effective, politicians wouldn't take the hit to the economy for nothing.

[Ziarry]

This whole situation is quite confusing, and all because we do not have complete information that would give us an understanding,

[Granyala]

This whole situation is quite confusing, and all because we do not have complete information that would give us an understanding,

I agree. We have taken available data for granted for so long, it's quite scary to see what happens when we do not have said data.

[tehealadin]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Hmm lots of positive test results but your death count does not seem to respond at all. Are you sure you are having a second wave?
To initiate a lockdown would be rather ... well hilarious at this point. You can do that one people actually start dying.

It is heartening that the death rate isn't soaring. I think we are in a second wave, in terms of the infection rate is going up and is comparable to where we were in early May, I am not sure in order to be considered a wave that the deaths need to match. If so then my bad. This is the first though I've heard of a wave being defined this way.

Like I said, I would be very surprised if they did initiate a full lockdown, some are pushing for it, but so long as people aren't dying, and to the best of my knowledge the hospital admissions aren't severe, so I'd agree that going down that road now might be a bit premature (at best). Still curious as to how they will respond, I think they have gotten a lot of calls wrong, any attempt to initiate a full lockdown might be met with more resistance this time round, especially as the government set a precedence that it doesn't apply to the top people, only the little people. Not sure I trust them to make the right call.

[Cynep]

Except you weren't expecting them. Not only did you say that the world had peaked, which would mean that the world's cases were going to decline (which they didn't), but you specifically stated several times that you predicted that you didn't think they would go back up past the July mark.

Let's roll the tape yet again, shall we?

Yes. let's. My posts say the opposite of what you claim they say, again. Your disingenuous gaslighting attempts just don't work.

After a week of small decline we had a week of small increase, the original peak was proven to be local and on August 14 was exceeded by 1.1%

Now, was this the final peak? Who knows, with back-to-school cases could pick up again.

People of Donetsk in general are shifting more and more towards denier stance. We're back to school too. How long would it take for cases to increase, several weeks?

See, I just proved that you're a gaslighting liar. I admitted that the peak was local, and I was discussing the autumn rise before it happened.

Back-to-school is causing a rise, but it's not a full-fledged wave, it's one of the contributing factors to the current situation. I'll give you one thing though - globally we indeed have one long wave instead of two separate ones.

Also, as you quoted me, India is carrying the world now. Your graph of "world minus the big three" was not statistically demonstrative as you like to say, not a rise. Graph of "world minus India", which you're hiding, will show you something you won't like.