Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Fuiking]

To use Benggauls terminology for Florida:

Fuck the Netherlands. 6.5k new cases past 24hours, rise of nearly a 1000... With lockdown shit in place.. but most of Europe is getting super angry and hateful towards the dutch..

[Forogil]

To use Benggauls terminology for Florida:

Fuck the Netherlands. 6.5k new cases past 24hours, rise of nearly a 1000... With lockdown shit in place.. but most of Europe is getting super angry and hateful towards the dutch..

That doesn't accurately represent the situation in the Netherlands.

It's worse.

While the number of reported cases have risen, the positive rate for tests have also risen to 12% (anything above 5% is bad) and similarly the number of tests per capita is small compared to the rest of western Europe - https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
That indicates that they (similarly as the UK) still are limited in terms of testing.

The Netherlands reported 6,214 deaths Mar 16th-Sep 6th, but there were 8,997 excess deaths - indicating that the true deaths are about 45% higher than reported, meaning more deaths per capita than nearby France. (There has since been about 300 reported deaths, and there are currently about 15 per day but I would expect that number to rise in the coming days); https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

[Yunru]

Well shit. One of my brothers friends got corvid, now i hope i didnt get it from him . But i did keep away from him quite a lot tho...

[szechuan]

Sweden is more populated than the other countries. In Iceland's case, some 10 million more and like 5 million more for Denmark, Norway and Finland.

Sweden is also much less densely populated then Denmark.

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Sounds like your government is taking hints from Trump.

[Forogil]

Sweden is also much less densely populated then Denmark.

Depending on how you count Denmark has a population density of 3 to 137 persons per km2, so either larger or smaller than Sweden.

The reason for the large variation for Denmark is that Greenland is sort of part of Denmark. Obviously this is sort of ridiculous as the large ice-masses of Greenland are irrelevant for the spread of the virus, but it highlights that the average population density for a country isn't the most relevant measure.

[StayTuned]

Frankfurt is under a curfew at the moment. No going out after 10pm or something like that.

Where is that damn vaccine....

[Granyala]

Frankfurt is under a curfew at the moment. No going out after 10pm or something like that.

What a pointless thing to do. Is SARS-CoV-2 night active now or what?
Dear God these idiot politicians.

[szechuan]

What a pointless thing to do. Is SARS-CoV-2 night active now or what?
Dear God these idiot politicians.

It's not pointless.

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Depending on how you count Denmark has a population density of 3 to 137 persons per km2, so either larger or smaller than Sweden.

They are more dense then other Sweden by a huge margin.

average population density for a country isn't the most relevant measure.

Then neither is population.

[Granyala]

It's not pointless.

If course it is pointless, the virus does not behave any differently past 22:00 and not every person going out at that time is a drunken idiot!

For f**** sake people are willing to accept anything in their deluded fear of this bug!

[Forogil]

They are more dense then other Sweden by a huge margin.

3 is much larger than 25 by a huge margin?

Denmark as in the country "ruled" by the Queen of Denmark including Greenland has a population density of 3, whereas Sweden has about 25 persons per km2.

As I stated including Greenland in Denmark is sort of ridiculous; but that only shows that the average population density for a country is a ridiculous measure - as large sparsely populated regions are irrelevant.

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If course it is pointless, the virus does not behave any differently past 22:00 and not every person going out at that time is a drunken idiot!

It also risks problems.
If everyone must leave the pubs and restaurants at 22.00 in Frankfurt or 23.00 in Berlin (since they close) there's a risk of crowding at that time, and people might go to a private apartment to continue the party.

Having different times in different cities also seems confusing.

[Fuiking]

If course it is pointless, the virus does not behave any differently past 22:00 and not every person going out at that time is a drunken idiot!

For f**** sake people are willing to accept anything in their deluded fear of this bug!

Deluded fear? heart problems, lung problems for the rest of your life? that aint deluded fear.

[Granyala]

Deluded fear? heart problems, lung problems for the rest of your life? that aint deluded fear.

Newsflash: these complications can occur with ANY viral infection. Research is still ongoing whether C19 is a special case in that regard or whether we just notice it because we have an absurd amount of cases and R&D budgets/attention.

But discussion is pointless. People have been beaten with the media fear stick for months now, rational thought and objective analysis is difficult to find.

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Having different times in different cities also seems confusing.

That's what having a federation does to you. Every little community makes it's own rules.

[PhaelixWW]

Newsflash: these complications can occur with ANY viral infection. Research is still ongoing whether C19 is a special case in that regard or whether we just notice it because we have an absurd amount of cases and R&D budgets/attention.

But discussion is pointless. People have been beaten with the media fear stick for months now, rational thought and objective analysis is difficult to find.

1st paragraph: "There's been absurd amounts of scientific study done on the subject of Covid!"

2nd paragraph: "Rational thought and objective analysis is difficult to find on the subject of Covid!"

Perhaps you might admit that your position is shit when you directly contradict yourself so badly. When you find yourself disagreeing with the majority of the scientists in the world, you're probably wrong.

Conservatively, 2-2.5m people will be dead of this pandemic in the 9-month span before the year ends. But sure, call it a "media fear stick".

[dribbles]

Newsflash: these complications can occur with ANY viral infection. Research is still ongoing whether C19 is a special case in that regard or whether we just notice it because we have an absurd amount of cases and R&D budgets/attention.

But discussion is pointless. People have been beaten with the media fear stick for months now, rational thought and objective analysis is difficult to find.

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That's what having a federation does to you. Every little community makes it's own rules.

The CDC is a good place to start for analysis and they have recently published new IFR rates by age that don't get much publicity.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/...ity-rate-data/

If the media don't constantly beat the people with a fear stick then we won't be scared enough and compliant to wear face muzzles.

[unfilteredJW]

The CDC is a good place to start for analysis and they have recently published new IFR rates by age that don't get much publicity.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/...ity-rate-data/

If the media don't constantly beat the people with a fear stick then we won't be scared enough and compliant to wear face muzzles.

Looks like you’ve found another thread to be wrong in. Your stamina is to be commended.

[breadisfunny]

Looks like you’ve found another thread to be wrong in. Your stamina is to be commended.

no its the same thread he's just back to spew more incorrect statements.

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If course it is pointless, the virus does not behave any differently past 22:00 and not every person going out at that time is a drunken idiot!

For f**** sake people are willing to accept anything in their deluded fear of this bug!

yes how DARE governments try to contain the spread of covid-19! hundreds of thousands of people are dying to this virus and you have to suffer the indignity of having to be home by 10 pm. here let me play this violin for you. /smallest violin.

[Nellise]

Looks like you’ve found another thread to be wrong in. Your stamina is to be commended.

Not sure why you're saying he's wrong, that's really from the CDC's models, he's just apparently very callous regarding older people's lives. The models assume a large number of asymptomatic cases (which do exist which is why the reported data doesn't match the model's numbers). The problem is that just in the US, a 5% death rate for those over 70 would mean nearly 1.5 million deaths from that group alone (there are almost 30 million 70+ people in the US).

[dribbles]

Not sure why you're saying he's wrong, that's really from the CDC's models, he's just apparently very callous regarding older people's lives. The models assume a large number of asymptomatic cases (which do exist which is why the reported data doesn't match the model's numbers). The problem is that just in the US, a 5% death rate for those over 70 would mean nearly 1.5 million deaths from that group alone (there are almost 30 million 70+ people in the US).

That 1.5 million deaths is assuming 100% of those over 70 would catch it when they clearly wouldn't.

[Forogil]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics to quote Samuel Langhorne. And clearly the image marked CDC isn't from the CDC.

No sensible person writes that 70+ has an infection fatality ratio of 0.054 and then a survival rate of 94.6%.
Usually both are given as percentages, but in some scientific papers I could see that they are written as simple numbers - but not this mix.

Or in other words the usual statement would be that IFR for 0-19 is 0.003%, for 20-49 it is 0.02%, for 50-69 it is 0.5% and for 70+ it is 5.4%.
Those numbers don't seem far off (assuming the health-care system isn't overwhelmed.)
And clearly it varies continuously with age and goes up even further for the even older ones.

I estimate there are about 30 million in the US that are 70+, and since we need about 2/3 to be infected to stop the pandemic due to herd immunity that would mean about 1 million deaths in that age group, and a bit more that 200 k below 70.

[breadisfunny]

That 1.5 million deaths is assuming 100% of those over 70 would catch it when they clearly wouldn't.

yeah whats a couple ten thousand between friends? also over 1million people are already dead so.....