Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Jastall]

Not sure why you're saying he's wrong, that's really from the CDC's models, he's just apparently very callous regarding older people's lives. The models assume a large number of asymptomatic cases (which do exist which is why the reported data doesn't match the model's numbers). The problem is that just in the US, a 5% death rate for those over 70 would mean nearly 1.5 million deaths from that group alone (there are almost 30 million 70+ people in the US).

Indeed. A 5% death rate doesn't look much on paper, in practice it can be tens of thousands of dead people if not millions in the most populated countries.

But oh noes, your government asks you to avoid parties, keep your distances and wear a mask sometimes to limit these needless deaths, Be still, my heart. That must have been what it felt like when people fought against enforcing seat belts and cracking down on drunk driving.

[Elegiac]

Since certain people are still pushing the "survival rate means it's nothing to be afraid of" bullshit, I'd like to kindly remind folks that recovering from COVID does not mean you are not left without serious long term health impacts as a result.

It’s becoming known as Covid brain fog: troubling cognitive symptoms that can include memory loss, confusion, difficulty focusing, dizziness and grasping for everyday words. Increasingly, Covid survivors say brain fog is impairing their ability to work and function normally.

“There are thousands of people who have that,” said Dr. Igor Koralnik, chief of neuro-infectious disease at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago, who has already seen hundreds of survivors at a post-Covid clinic he leads. “The impact on the work force that’s affected is going to be significant."

Scientists aren’t sure what causes brain fog, which varies widely and affects even people who became only mildly physically ill from Covid-19 and had no previous medical conditions. Leading theories are that it arises when the body’s immune response to the virus doesn’t shut down or from inflammation in blood vessels leading to the brain.

Remind me who's going to be paying for all the healthcare and lost productivity from this?

[Nellise]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics to quote Samuel Langhorne. And clearly the image marked CDC isn't from the CDC.

No sensible person writes that 70+ has an infection fatality ratio of 0.054 and then a survival rate of 94.6%.
Usually both are given as percentages, but in some scientific papers I could see that they are written as simple numbers - but not this mix.

Or in other words the usual statement would be that IFR for 0-19 is 0.003%, for 20-49 it is 0.02%, for 50-69 it is 0.5% and for 70+ it is 5.4%.

Those are the real numbers from the CDC. They specifically say they're using "Ratio" and not "Rate" for the IFR for those numbers, which is why that column isn't in percentages.

[dribbles]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics to quote Samuel Langhorne. And clearly the image marked CDC isn't from the CDC.

No sensible person writes that 70+ has an infection fatality ratio of 0.054 and then a survival rate of 94.6%.
Usually both are given as percentages, but in some scientific papers I could see that they are written as simple numbers - but not this mix.

Or in other words the usual statement would be that IFR for 0-19 is 0.003%, for 20-49 it is 0.02%, for 50-69 it is 0.5% and for 70+ it is 5.4%.
Those numbers don't seem far off (assuming the health-care system isn't overwhelmed.)
And clearly it varies continuously with age and goes up even further for the even older ones.

I estimate there are about 30 million in the US that are 70+, and since we need about 2/3 to be infected to stop the pandemic due to herd immunity that would mean about 1 million deaths in that age group, and a bit more that 200 k below 70.

Well accepting your 2/3rd figure of the overall population need to be infected for herd immunity, how about we start by infecting all the youngsters by keeping schools open, uni students back in universities, then the under 50's at which point are we not at that 2/3rds?

It seems to me this is now the UK plan, how long will it take now our real infection rate is likely running at 50,000 a day. By next week that may be at 100,000 a day and it won't take many weeks until we hit the 2/3rds.

In the meantime the over 70's could self isolate and take precautions to protect themselves, jobs a goodun and herd immunity achieved by Christmas.

[Forogil]

yeah whats a couple thousand between friends? also over 1million people are already dead so.....

The global number of actual deaths is likely close to 2 million now, similarly as the actual number of infected is likely above 700 million.

The numbers of 1 to 1.5 million dead were just for the US; and it's very unclear what the global number of deaths will be - as we don't know how fatal it will be in less developed countries. Early on there were fears that it would be more a lot more deadly - especially in combination with HIV/AIDS, but that doesn't seem to be the case and the results from India weren't that much worse than the US.

[Elegiac]

In the meantime the over 70's could self isolate and take precautions to protect themselves, jobs a goodun and herd immunity achieved by Christmas.

Cute, it thinks England's population contracting by nearly two million in the space of sixth months wouldn't cause a depression.

[Forogil]

Those are the real numbers from the CDC. They specifically say they're using "Ratio" and not "Rate" for the IFR for those numbers, which is why that column isn't in percentages.

Yes, the ratio is from the CDC - but I don't see them giving a survival percentage in the next column.
(Why they are using percentages for asymptomatic cases is odd.)

Someone else added that extra column so that people would see 0.054 and think very small number, not 5%.

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Well accepting your 2/3rd figure of the overall population need to be infected for herd immunity, how about we start by infecting all the youngsters by keeping schools open, uni students back in universities, then the under 50's at which point are we not at that 2/3rds?

You can't easily control an infection like that, and people don't age-separate like that. And youngsters don't spread this disease so much so the first plan is likely to fail. There's also the issue of many infected being home sick for a month or so (even if they don't need hospital care), which will cause a bit of problems.

And 2/3 is just a rough estimate, as it spreads in cluster in some way.

It seems to me this is now the UK plan, how long will it take now our real infection rate is likely running at 50,000 a day. By next week that may be at 100,000 a day and it won't take many weeks until we hit the 2/3rds.

The uk doesn't have a plan, it has tens of plans and follow none. And I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are already above 100 k a day.

[Nellise]

Yes, the ratio is from the CDC - but I don't see them giving a survival percentage in the next column.
(Why they are using percentages for asymptomatic cases is odd.)

Someone else added that extra column so that people would see 0.054 and think very small number, not 5%.

Okay, I get what you're saying. It didn't bother me since I recognize that they mean the same thing.

I'm curious where he got that image from since it's not in either link that was given. I tried to find it myself, but had no luck.

[dribbles]

Okay, I get what you're saying. It didn't bother me since I recognize that they mean the same thing.

I'm curious where he got that image from since it's not in either link that was given. I tried to find it myself, but had no luck.

It came from a journalist I follow on twitter.

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/stat...99168424620033

And converting the ratio the CDC use to percentage is just multiply by 100 isn't it? Not meant to be confusing.

[PhaelixWW]

I estimate there are about 30 million in the US that are 70+, and since we need about 2/3 to be infected to stop the pandemic due to herd immunity that would mean about 1 million deaths in that age group, and a bit more that 200 k below 70.

The 70+ bracket in the US is about 10.9% of the population, which is 36 million. And if we're going to use the CDC numbers, then we might as well use their R0 estimate as well, which is 2.5, which corresponds to a 71.4% herd immunity threshold. That equates to 1.4 million dead in the 70+ bracket and another 310k below 70.

Worldwide, we're talking about 23 million.

[postman1782]

Frankfurt is under a curfew at the moment. No going out after 10pm or something like that.

Where is that damn vaccine....

At this rate, it won't be available til at least next October or so.

[unfilteredJW]

It came from a journalist I follow on twitter.

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/stat...99168424620033

And converting the ratio the CDC use to percentage is just multiply by 100 isn't it? Not meant to be confusing.

Peter Hitchens.

Lol.

[metzger84]

The most annoying thing about this pandemic is that we're still in its early stages.

[Corvus]

The last three days have seen 1 million confirmed new cases worldwide.

[Jastall]

The most annoying thing about this pandemic is that we're still in its early stages.

That's the most depressing part of it. A viable vaccine probably won't see the light of the day until next summer at the very earliest, and more likely in a year's time, and distribution would likely take a couple months on top of that realistically. We might be in sight of 2022 before this bullshit is said and done.

[Granyala]

1st paragraph: "There's been absurd amounts of scientific study done on the subject of Covid!"

2nd paragraph: "Rational thought and objective analysis is difficult to find on the subject of Covid!"

Perhaps you might admit that your position is shit when you directly contradict yourself so badly.

And perhaps reading comprehension is not your strong suit. I spoke about 2 distinctly different circles of people.
Yes a lot of research is done by scientists and every article about the long term effects that has been linked here explicitly stated that science is still unsure whether the currently observed long term effects are exclusive to C19 or not.

The second statement was referring to the common man, not the scientific community. Arguing C19 related topics with the former is currently a fruitless endeavor because yes: fear has been drilled into these people for over half a year now. The moment you deviate from the mainstream media message you are branded a "covidiot".

2-2.5M people in a year world wide is not a lot. Our planet has a crude death rate of 0.8%, so we lose 62.5M people every year (and still make more).
Co C19 caused around 3% excess mortality.

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The CDC is a good place to start for analysis and they have recently published new IFR rates by age that don't get much publicity.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

These percentages sound about right.

Looks like you’ve found another thread to be wrong in. Your stamina is to be commended.

Poster1: Listen to the CDC, not trump, you idiots!
Poster2: NOO CDC is wrong you morons!

Can you make up your mind already?!

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No sensible person writes that 70+ has an infection fatality ratio of 0.054 and then a survival rate of 94.6%.

Haha, I didn't even realize that.
I'm so used to handling %ages as decimals.

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Remind me who's going to be paying for all the healthcare and lost productivity from this?

Tax payers. Just as tax payers pay for all the measures, all the economic rescue packets etc. Ultimately each and everyone of us pays for everything.

Be it saving an incompetent bank that thought speculation was awesome or treating survivors of C19.

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That's the most depressing part of it. A viable vaccine probably won't see the light of the day until next summer at the very earliest, and more likely in a year's time, and distribution would likely take a couple months on top of that realistically. We might be in sight of 2022 before this bullshit is said and done.

Oh, my dear. This bullshit won't be done by 2022. Not even close to it.
Even if we are super lucky and the hastily cobbled together vaccine is ready by next summer and turns out to be safer than the actual disease, the economic fallout will be with us for a decade at least.

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yes how DARE governments try to contain the spread of covid-19! hundreds of thousands of people are dying to this virus and you have to suffer the indignity of having to be home by 10 pm. here let me play this violin for you. /smallest violin.

Because an overall curfew would be idiotic and accomplish nothing.

After doing research, it turns out that it's not an actual curfew.
To be more precise: bars and restaurants have to close at 23:00 hours.
That I can actually understand in theory, because drunkards and partyfolk hardly obey the safety measures.

Whether it will have an actual effect in practice other than hitting the gastronomy business again remains questionable though. Time will tell but my gut tells me that it won't make a dent in the numbers because these party folks will obediently leave the restaurants at 22.00 and continue in their private residences. So the virus doesn't get spread in the evening but during the next days at work instead.

Same excrement, different color.

PS: thanks for the awesome violin solo! I am not personally affected though. I always hated gatherings of humans and these "parties".

[unfilteredJW]

And perhaps reading comprehension is not your strong suit. I spoke about 2 distinctly different circles of people.
Yes a lot of research is done by scientists and every article about the long term effects that has been linked here explicitly stated that science is still unsure whether the currently observed long term effects are exclusive to C19 or not.

The second statement was referring to the common man, not the scientific community. Arguing C19 related topics with the former is currently a fruitless endeavor because yes: fear has been drilled into these people for over half a year now. The moment you deviate from the mainstream media message you are branded a "covidiot".

2-2.5M people in a year world wide is not a lot. Our planet has a crude death rate of 0.8%, so we lose 62.5M people every year (and still make more).
Co C19 caused around 3% excess mortality.

- - - Updated - - -


These percentages sound about right.

Poster1: Listen to the CDC, not trump, you idiots!
Poster2: NOO CDC is wrong you morons!

Can you make up your mind already?!

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Haha, I didn't even realize that.
I'm so used to handling %ages as decimals.

- - - Updated - - -


Tax payers. Just as tax payers pay for all the measures, all the economic rescue packets etc. Ultimately each and everyone of us pays for everything.

Be it saving an incompetent bank that thought speculation was awesome or treating survivors of C19.

- - - Updated - - -


Oh, my dear. This bullshit won't be done by 2022. Not even close to it.
Even if we are super lucky and the hastily cobbled together vaccine is ready by next summer and turns out to be safer than the actual disease, the economic fallout will be with us for a decade at least.

- - - Updated - - -


Because an overall curfew would be idiotic and accomplish nothing.

After doing research, it turns out that it's not an actual curfew.
To be more precise: bars and restaurants have to close at 23:00 hours.
That I can actually understand in theory, because drunkards and partyfolk hardly obey the safety measures.

Whether it will have an actual effect in practice other than hitting the gastronomy business again remains questionable though. Time will tell but my gut tells me that it won't make a dent in the numbers because these party folks will obediently leave the restaurants at 22.00 and continue in their private residences. So the virus doesn't get spread in the evening but during the next days at work instead.

Same excrement, different color.

PS: thanks for the awesome violin solo! I am not personally affected though. I always hated gatherings of humans and these "parties".

Dribbles intentions were what were suspect.

Avoid using me as a step stone in your crusade.

[Granyala]

Dribbles intentions were what were suspect.
Avoid using me as a step stone in your crusade.

I don't give a rats ass about your interpretation regarding his intention.
I only care about what has been said.

If you do not want others to quote you, stop speaking. I am on no crusade but I did observe some hilarious behavior in this thread regarding the statements of the CDC.

[unfilteredJW]

I don't give a rats ass about your interpretation regarding his intention.
I only care about what has been said.

If you do not want others to quote you, stop speaking. I am on no crusade but I did observe some hilarious behavior in this thread regarding the statements of the CDC.

You put words in my mouth and then get upset with me when I point out you’re wrong.

You do you boo boo.

[PhaelixWW]

And perhaps reading comprehension is not your strong suit. I spoke about 2 distinctly different circles of people.

No, not really. Because, you see, the second group is following the suggestions of the first group, so they're not as "different" in this regard as you'd like to pretend. Fool yourself all you want, but there's a reason you feel like the majority disagrees with your view, and it's not because we're wrong.

2-2.5M people in a year world wide is not a lot. Our planet has a crude death rate of 0.8%, so we lose 62.5M people every year (and still make more).
Co C19 caused around 3% excess mortality.

Oops, watch out; your sociopath is showing!

These percentages sound about right.

Poster1: Listen to the CDC, not trump, you idiots!
Poster2: NOO CDC is wrong you morons!

Can you make up your mind already?!

That's not at all what was being said. The percentages are fine. His perspective of the outcome was what was wrong.