Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[szechuan]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2BT2ZI

[Mayhem]

I mean, call it what you like. I'm basically speaking from experience of living here - reality is the moment you have a critical mass going, that's it.

Would it be better at 80% population vaccinated instead of 55%? Sure, but already at 55% it seems to be taking hold well enough for restrictions to be dropped and public events held without major spike.

I don't think there will be any country in the world that will have 80%+ of populace vaccinated, but it's not really needed to be THAT high for sanity to return. I imagine we will get to 65%, but I don't expect any more than that - at that point you'd need people to be forced to get more.

Besides, frankly - I and all those I care about are covered anyway. I can't help those 1 million crazies that we have that are eligible, but simply do not do it - it's on them.

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Mostly, again, the point is - vaccination is super important and it is very effective. So help yourselves and others, if you can.

The problem is, if we can't get rid of it, it will mutate, and then we might be back at this shit in a year or two or less. I do hope it will work out in the end but I am not too optimistic considering how stupid the world behaves with this pandemic.

[PhaelixWW]

The problem is, if we can't get rid of it, it will mutate, and then we might be back at this shit in a year or two or less. I do hope it will work out in the end but I am not too optimistic considering how stupid the world behaves with this pandemic.

That is also extremely unlikely.

Covid ravaged the world because SARS-CoV-2 was a novel coronavirus. It's no longer novel, and it's also unlikely that a variant would mutate enough to completely invalidate any immune system memory.

[Gaidax]

The problem is, if we can't get rid of it, it will mutate, and then we might be back at this shit in a year or two or less. I do hope it will work out in the end but I am not too optimistic considering how stupid the world behaves with this pandemic.

If... then...

There is no point shaking over something that may or may not happen. That bridge will be crossed once we get there.

[Tuor]

I mean, call it what you like. I'm basically speaking from experience of living here - reality is the moment you have a critical mass going, that's it.

Would it be better at 80% population vaccinated instead of 55%? Sure, but already at 55% it seems to be taking hold well enough for restrictions to be dropped and public events held without major spike.

I don't think there will be any country in the world that will have 80%+ of populace vaccinated, but it's not really needed to be THAT high for sanity to return. I imagine we will get to 65%, but I don't expect any more than that - at that point you'd need people to be forced to get more.

Besides, frankly - I and all those I care about are covered anyway. I can't help those 1 million crazies that we have that are eligible, but simply do not do it - it's on them.

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Mostly, again, the point is - vaccination is super important and it is very effective. So help yourselves and others, if you can.

Actually, i agree with Phaelix this one time. we still don't know if the vaccines prevents infections or it just reduces the symptoms. We also don't know how long the effects of the vaccine last, could be a year or even less.

Knowing this, hitting the so called herd imunity might be utopical, because we will have to hit it, and mantain it after.

One thing i know for sure, the virus has come to stay, the spanish flu virus for example circulated for 40 years after the 1918-20 pandemic.

[Mayhem]

That is also extremely unlikely.

Covid ravaged the world because SARS-CoV-2 was a novel coronavirus. It's no longer novel, and it's also unlikely that a variant would mutate enough to completely invalidate any immune system memory.

Ok, what do you base this on? The likelyness.

[PhaelixWW]

Ok, what do you base this on? The likelyness.

Again, because it was novel before, but it won't be next time. People will continue to get sick, but many fewer will die, because most people at some point will have fractional immunity.

Viruses don't mutate into completely different viruses. A small part mutates and it becomes a variant, but it would take ridiculously unlucky mutation to cause it to completely ignore any previous immunity.

[Draco-Onis]

Again, because it was novel before, but it won't be next time. People will continue to get sick, but many fewer will die, because most people at some point will have fractional immunity.

Viruses don't mutate into completely different viruses. A small part mutates and it becomes a variant, but it would take ridiculously unlucky mutation to cause it to completely ignore any previous immunity.

Until we get better with therapeutics there's really no way to know right now the focus is on vaccines but treatment is the way to learn to live with the virus. We still don't know much about this virus it is still novel, It takes years of study and research for something to not be novel, every month we learn something new about it.

[Mayhem]

Again, because it was novel before, but it won't be next time. People will continue to get sick, but many fewer will die, because most people at some point will have fractional immunity.

Viruses don't mutate into completely different viruses. A small part mutates and it becomes a variant, but it would take ridiculously unlucky mutation to cause it to completely ignore any previous immunity.

You wrote just 2 posts ago that protection is most certainly not permanent.

[PhaelixWW]

Until we get better with therapeutics there's really no way to know right now the focus is on vaccines but treatment is the way to learn to live with the virus. We still don't know much about this virus it is still novel, It takes years of study and research for something to not be novel, every month we learn something new about it.

Um... a virus is "novel" not so much because we don't have complete information about it, but because we collectively have not had prior exposure, and thus no resistance, to it. Once we get somewhere near full exposure to the virus, through either prior exposure or vaccination, it is no longer "novel", and won't have as strong of an impact on the population.

That doesn't mean we don't have more to learn, though I'd contend that we know more about COVID now than all but the most common viral diseases.

You wrote just 2 posts ago that protection is most certainly not permanent.

Full protection is not permanent. That's also why I said "fractional immunity". The protection won't be strong enough to make you immune, but any prior exposure should help mitigate your reaction to a new infection. You can get sick again, but your odds of serious reaction go way down.

[Forogil]

Actually, i agree with Phaelix this one time. we still don't know if the vaccines prevents infections or it just reduces the symptoms. We also don't know how long the effects of the vaccine last, could be a year or even less.

We do know it prevents the spread of infections, since countries with high rates of vaccination are showing a larger decline in case-numbers.

If people got infected as before in e.g., Israel, but just didn't show symptoms then case numbers would be down about 50% due to the rate of vaccination. They are down 95%. As far as I understand no new lockdown explains it and it is not due to the weather, since Lebanon doesn't show a similar decline. We don't know how much it reduces the spread; but we know the reduction is significant.

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And another study indicating that 10% of mild cases have long term effects.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-...ld-covid-.html

The most common long-term symptoms (10 months) were loss of smell and taste, fatigue, and respiratory problems.
...
However, we do not see an increased prevalence of cognitive symptoms such as brain fatigue, memory and concentration problems or physical disorders such as muscle and joint pain, heart palpitations or long-term fever.

[Bodakane]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...204056985.html

Ted Nugent Wants to Know Where the Shutdowns Were for COVID-1 Through COVID-18 — No, Really

The COVID-19 pandemic did a pretty good job showing which musicians, celebrities, friends, and family members believe in science and which prefer conspiracy theories. But on the scale that tops out around Van Morrison, Ted Nugent is in a league of his own.

Long known as the rock ‘n roll’s uncle whom you wouldn’t want to be stuck next to at the Thanksgiving table, the guitar legend and borderline right-wing extremist hit the conspiracy-friendly forum of Facebook Live (and originally transcribed by Blabbermouth) yesterday to ponder one of the hardest questions for those who don’t have a basic knowledge of science or recent etymology: “Why were there no shutdowns for COVID-1 through -18?”

Yeah.....

[PACOX]

Ted Nugent Wants to Know Where the Shutdowns Were for COVID-1 Through COVID-18 — No, Really



Yeah.....

There were times when I was younger where we'd sit down and just say the stupidest stuff that crossed our minds. No brained word vomit just to be silly. There's probably some benefit to turning off your brain after intense study sessions or whatever so that's why we did it.

Who knew there are adults who do that for real in actual conversations in public.

[Edge-]

Ted Nugent Wants to Know Where the Shutdowns Were for COVID-1 Through COVID-18 — No, Really



Yeah.....

I feel like this is comedy necrophilia because people like him were also unironically asking this question around this time....last year.

[PhaelixWW]

Ted Nugent Wants to Know Where the Shutdowns Were for COVID-1 Through COVID-18 — No, Really

Yeah.....

Your link is broken.

[Bodakane]

Your link is broken.

Fixed. Thank you.

[Pann]

Four cases of rare clots have been found with the Janssen vaccine although it is not yet clear whether there is a causal association with the vaccine. Fingers crossed that this is not related to the vaccine but it is worth noting that even if clots are a side effect the risk is very low.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/me...6-9-april-2021

[Mayhem]

Full protection is not permanent. That's also why I said "fractional immunity". The protection won't be strong enough to make you immune, but any prior exposure should help mitigate your reaction to a new infection. You can get sick again, but your odds of serious reaction go way down.

Which in return increases the likeliness of it mutating into something really terrible. The flu kills how many in a bad year despite being around for centuries? A worse variant of the flu could turn into the next pandemic and we are now creating something besides the flu that could just do the same.

awesomesauce

[Forogil]

Which in return increases the likeliness of it mutating into something really terrible. The flu kills how many in a bad year despite being around for centuries? A worse variant of the flu could turn into the next pandemic and we are now creating something besides the flu that could just do the same.

Maybe, or it may become something as harmless as the common cold that we don't generally care about.

That exact pattern is suggested for OC43 in https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544107/ specifically that it first spread among animals (in that case cows around 1850-1900), then caused a "flu" pandemic in 1890, and finally became part of the common cold.
(It could also be that OC43 was never that dangerous for humans.)

- - - Updated - - -

Four cases of rare clots have been found with the Janssen vaccine although it is not yet clear whether there is a causal association with the vaccine. Fingers crossed that this is not related to the vaccine but it is worth noting that even if clots are a side effect the risk is very low.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/me...6-9-april-2021

If true that means that of the two virus-vector vaccines regularly used in the western world both cause this, despite using different Adeno-virus as vectors.
But none of the mRNA based ones.

The other two virus-vector vaccines are Sputnik V from Russia and Convidecia from China; and I would say that most likely both of them also cause this, especially Sputnik V as it uses two different adeno-viruses as base - the same ones as in Janssen and Convidecia vaccines.

[Tuor]

We do know it prevents the spread of infections, since countries with high rates of vaccination are showing a larger decline in case-numbers.

Less people with symptoms, means there are less people seeking for help so less positive tests, also Israel droped the number of tests lately, wich is indicative of what i said.

Its impossible for the imune systhem to block an infection before the viral charge is huge enought for that to happen, so, infections will always happen.