Code Black is edging ever closer for the dutch.
Researchers are taking thia new mutation a bit more seriously than 'deltq plus' or what was it? Mu? Tgat briefly popped up. Which makes me think it has a decent chance of spiraling out of control. Hopefully not.
Resident Cosplay Progressive
That's not at all the suspected source of this variant, you know.
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Things are not looking great so far.
The new variant, pango lineage B.1.1.529 now has a name, "Omicron", and has been elevated to a variant of concern by the WHO.
The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) is an independent group of experts that periodically monitors and evaluates the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and assesses if specific mutations and combinations of mutations alter the behaviour of the virus. The TAG-VE was convened on 26 November 2021 to assess the SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.529.
The B.1.1.529 variant was first reported to WHO from South Africa on 24 November 2021. The epidemiological situation in South Africa has been characterized by three distinct peaks in reported cases, the latest of which was predominantly the Delta variant. In recent weeks, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant. The first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9 November 2021.
This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs. The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation. Using this approach, this variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage.
There are a number of studies underway and the TAG-VE will continue to evaluate this variant. WHO will communicate new findings with Member States and to the public as needed.
Based on the evidence presented indicative of a detrimental change in COVID-19 epidemiology, the TAG-VE has advised WHO that this variant should be designated as a VOC, and the WHO has designated B.1.1.529 as a VOC, named Omicron.
As such, countries are asked to do the following:
- enhance surveillance and sequencing efforts to better understand circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.
- submit complete genome sequences and associated metadata to a publicly available database, such as GISAID.
- report initial cases/clusters associated with VOC infection to WHO through the IHR mechanism.
- where capacity exists and in coordination with the international community, perform field investigations and laboratory assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of the VOC on COVID-19 epidemiology, severity, effectiveness of public health and social measures, diagnostic methods, immune responses, antibody neutralization, or other relevant characteristics.
Individuals are reminded to take measures to reduce their risk of COVID-19, including proven public health and social measures such as wearing well-fitting masks, hand hygiene, physical distancing, improving ventilation of indoor spaces, avoiding crowded spaces, and getting vaccinated.
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
That graph indicates that Alpha took out the original in 8 weeks, Delta took out Alpha in 6 weeks, and Omikron (B.1.1.529) took out Delta in 1 week; some claim it is 3.5 times more transmissible than Delta.
If that is true, and it is as deadly as previous variants that's would be really bad.
However, there are some indications that it may be overestimated a bit - and unfortunately even that isn't entirely good news - basically it first spread undetected, and caused an outbreak in some places - and that triggered increased testing where the outbreak had happened skewing the numbers.
It still spreads more than Delta in S. Africa; but perhaps not 3.5 times more.
The downside is that it is already spread beyond southern Africa, the Belgian case was allegedly someone returning from Egypt on November 11 through Turkey. I don't see that a travel ban from southern Africa will stop it now.
As for how deadly it is that it seems it is too early to tell.
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Agreed.
There are some who think that 100 vaccine doses in the West would magically transform into 1,000 in developing countries when it at best would be 100 - and often less than 90 (due to lack of special needles); or that making a vaccine is simple.
And even vaccinating everyone based on age worldwide would likely reduce overall deaths it is not clear that it would reduce risk of new variants. (Or that developing countries would target the vaccines in that way; indications are that they often don't.)
An actual problem, on the other hand, are people refusing to get vaccinated, like many school-teachers in Gauteng province:
https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/s...anyaza-lesufi/
Be very careful about drawing too many conclusions from that graph alone. Those can be very misleading, depending on how many genome samples were run during the period in question. If, perhaps, one lab in particular is faster about running the labs and happens to be sampling people in a cluster of the new cases, it can make it appear vastly more prevalent than it really is. If genome sampling ramps up and multiple areas are reporting the same trend, then we'll have a better idea.
I mean, take a look at the graph on CoVariants:
It shows 100% omicron samples for the most recent period. But when you look at the detail, it's only 6 samples.
When you go back and look at earlier dates, you see that they've been filled in by many, many more samples.
So we'll have to see whether the trend continues this way over the next month or two to see if the rate of infection bears out. It very well might.
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
Agreed.
I added that caveat after the picture, and also the depressing news that it indicates that it is likely already more widespread in the world.
Unfortunately it may take 2-3 months for new vaccines targeting it to arrive
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...soon-1.5683368
At the same time, we should remember that delta was first sampled in November 2020 and didn't really build up momentum enough to take over until starting in April 2021.
The first part of exponential curves is generally flat for a ways, and delta is a tough competitor in general, so we may have more time than the worst-case scenarios that are running through everyone's minds. I certainly hope we do, at least.
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
Man, the have a flight from South Africa sitting at a terminal like its one of the cruise ships early 2020.
Resident Cosplay Progressive
Apparently BionTech has already begun testing the Omikron variant with its vaccine and expects results in about two weeks. If they need to adjust the vaccine for the new variant that would take approx 6 weeks (as others have already said on here) and first vaccines could be sent out in about 100 days, as they had already made preparations for that with Pfizer some time ago (because mutations were, of course, expected. Obviously BionTech/Pfizer are a lot smarter than most governments with thinking and planning ahead )
Well hot damn, never saw this coming. Not just before christmas.
That went from nothing to concerning very quickly.
Part of the reason behind the concern is that it has 20 mutations. Delta had only 2 mutations. It may be nothing or it may be something - we just don't know yet.
Of course the conspiracists are already out there making stupid claims about it.
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
Hrm, the news article I read was giving wrong numbers. But the general gist of it was that omicron has a lot more mutations in the spike protein, which is worrying.
Sigh ...
Remember when some people were like "everything is going to upside until 2024“ and a lot of people, myself included, were like stop being so pessimistic? I those people were right.
And Im not referring to COVID going away, its not. I just mean a point where we can handle it like the flu. We can't go 2 months without new spikes. A wave was/is coming despite this new variant.
Resident Cosplay Progressive