2020-2021 NFL Thread

[Vetali]

This team really does feel like a "win the Super Bowl this year because after htis season we're tearing it all down and losing our QB and Coach to retirement" team. Thrown a lot of one year deals at aging players and volatile personalities.

Especially considering Arian's 180 stance on AB earlier this year where he called him a diva. Now they sign him? Yeah they going all in.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

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BTW, I don't get ESPN's QBR one bit. Last year, Tom Brady threw for 24 tds, 8 interceptions, and 4000 yards, with 4 fumbles. His qbr was 54.5.

This year, Jones has 5 TDs, 7 interceptions, and 4 fumbles through 7 games. His QBR is 56.2.

Brady this year is rated below Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater, and well below Ryan Fitzpatrick (Brady is 19, Fitzpatrick is 7).

I'm usually a fan of advanced stats providing a different look at things, but this QBR thing just doesn't seem right.

If I had to guess their QBR grades single flashy performances higher than consistent good performances. Because what those three have in common is they had a couple of games that they just went off statistically.

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Especially considering Arian's 180 stance on AB earlier this year where he called him a diva. Now they sign him? Yeah they going all in.

Yeah that was what tipped me off to there's more to this than need.

Well that and the fact it's not like the Bucs were bad passing-wise or anything.

This feels like a signing you make hoping he can give you a pair of 1s, and that winning will keep his diva-ness in check.

[Espo]

Giants fan's opinion on Daniel Jones:

BTW, I don't get ESPN's QBR one bit. Last year, Tom Brady threw for 24 tds, 8 interceptions, and 4000 yards, with 4 fumbles. His qbr was 54.5.

This year, Jones has 5 TDs, 7 interceptions, and 4 fumbles through 7 games. His QBR is 56.2.

Brady this year is rated below Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater, and well below Ryan Fitzpatrick (Brady is 19, Fitzpatrick is 7).

I'm usually a fan of advanced stats providing a different look at things, but this QBR thing just doesn't seem right.

QBR is an efficiency stat--not a pure 'value' stat. It tries to measure the how you got there, not the end result of the stats.

E.g. a 50 yard air completion thrown perfectly (not a jump ball) is worth more than dumping the ball off on a screen to a RB who breaks 5 tackles and ends with a 50 yard gain. High skill plays count for more than low skill ones.

It also measures all the negative things QBs do that don't show up on obvious stat sheets (poor accuracy to WRs on caught passes that result in no YAC, having great skill players bail you out, taking at-fault sacks for holding onto the ball too long, situational down plays such as moving the chains on 3rd down vs killing drives due to an accuracy/choice mistake, etc). It also measures rushing yards (hence Lamar being a monster last year). Basically, it captures the entire situation a QB is in.

In the case of Brady last year--he was that bad. If you watched his games, he looked washed (for whatever reason) and was dinking and dunking down the field. Yea he had 4000 yards and 24 TDs and 8 Ints. Pat Mahomes had 4000 yards 26 TDs and 5 ints. Pretty close until you see that Brady had 613 pass attempts and Mahomes had 485.

tl;dr: It's an efficiency stat that does its best to measure how much positive/negative impact QBs have per play. It's not perfect (nor am I an expert).

[Logwyn]

Please God, let Trevor go to Washington to be the face of the rebrand.

What rebrand? Sounds like they will just be the Washington Football Team.

[ohiostate124]

What rebrand? Sounds like they will just be the Washington Football Team.

No. The recent statement you are referring to never suggested that it would be permanent.

They said that they may possibly keep that for next season because everything might not be ready but there are also rumors that they new name is already chosen.

There is also an official website for the rebrand where they put concepts on display and are letting the fans vote on them.

https://www.washingtonjourney.com/

[Espo]

The problem you have with stats like those that try to judge QBs is that your estimate of what is good might be wrong. Yes, Tom Brady was not Patrick Mahomes last year, but the Patriots had the 15th rank offense last year (out of 32) with a below average running game and pretty terrible receivers. Yes Brady dinked and dunked down the field, but it worked, it's what they had to do given the personnel they had. They couldn't run much so they passed way more than usual (as they always have because it works for them). He didn't turn the ball over much - 8 ints and 4 fumbles (and he recovered 5).

Meanwhile, this year Daniel Jones, with a higher QBR than Tom Brady last year, is leading an offense that ranks 30th in the NFL. They are 27th in turnovers, and he is responsible for 85% of them with 4 lost fumbles (5 total) and 7 interceptions. He has 5 touchdown passes. He's averaging fewer yards per attempt than Brady did last year.

About the only thing I can see that Jones has over Brady is he has excellent running numbers, propped up by that 80 yard run. But I have a hard time seeing how that makes up for the extra 12-14 turnovers he's costing his team plus the weaker production in the passing game. I just think the stat is wrong.

I hear ya, it's all fair stuff to talk about.

There's a flip side to some of the arguments you're making. Yes, the Patriots were 15th in total offense (yards). But were they 15th and not a top 5 offense because of Brady? Did he dink and dunk when he could have hit wide open receivers down the field? Why weren't they higher on points scored even though they had the best defense in the NFL giving them the ball back in favorable positions regularly? Brady also faces largely the worst competition in the NFL on a regular basis (pre 2020 AFC east, and QBR factors in strength of defense).

Maybe Daniel Jones isn't the cause of all of the Giant's problems? How much of those turnovers are breakdowns from the rest of the offense vs his deficiencies, or tipped balls, bad routes being run, or him simply playing stellar defenses. Is he truly inaccurate and making bad decisions?

I get what the 'normal' stats say, but that's kind of the point of the QBR in being a bit of an anti-stat in its effort to go deeper into the true value of a QB. It's a bit like the difference between fantasy football and real football (some hyperbole here by me). It tries to isolate the QBs actual positive or negative impact of the game and give credit/fault where it is due--even if the outcome of the play seems to differ.

Anyway, as I said--all fair stuff you're mentioning and QBR isn't a perfect stat. And I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here just for fun (I struggle to believe Daniel Jones can be compared to Brady as well, but we're also only talking 7 games vs 16, so the decent games he's had are more influential and will likely go down over time if he's really this bad).

Well, maybe not on the Brady part--he really was not great last year (his QBR was appropriately mid-pack imo).

[PokeKitty]

edit: I am a Giants fan and I still disapprove of the draft picks of the last 3 years, Barkley was a miss, should get Q Nelson, DJ is a miss, he is not a franchise QB, and this year the draft picks are even worse, AT looks like bust, lets hope the Safety in the 2nd round is good.

[Grube]

It is really, really impressive how not good the Cowboys defense is.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Washington is gonna be that team that somehow ends the season 4-12 and picking at #6 while the QBs go 1, 2, 3 to teams that actually tanked.

[eschatological]

Holy shit, if we lose to the Jets I might throw myself over Niagara Falls.

[ProphetFlume]

I really expected better from dalton and the cowboys. It’s like the entire team gave up.

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I knew the Steelers were undefeated but I guess I didn’t really take them seriously. They’re still the big winners from the bell and brown shenanigans.

[xskarma]

They’re still the big winners from the bell and brown shenanigans.

They haven't made the playoffs the past 2 years since Bell and Brown were gone. I wouldn't call them winners of anything. Everyone lost.



Also, that hit on Dalton. Oof. Hopefully that guy is suspended a few games, cause that was utterly unnecessary.

[Northern Goblin]

Also, that hit on Dalton. Oof. Hopefully that guy is suspended a few games, cause that was utterly unnecessary.

Not a single lineman came to help either, shows the state of Dallas' mentality with Dak gone.

[Crissi]

Not a single lineman came to help either, shows the state of Dallas' mentality with Dak gone.

yeah, our season is done. We should just tnak, and use the high pick on either better O line, or defense.

[Northern Goblin]

The Falcons might just have found a new way to choke.

By scoring a touchdown.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Not a single lineman came to help either, shows the state of Dallas' mentality with Dak gone.

yeah, our season is done. We should just tnak, and use the high pick on either better O line, or defense.

We're 7 weeks in and it already looks like McCarthy has lost this team.

[Kyanion]

The Falcons might just have found a new way to choke.

By scoring a touchdown.

Don’t worry the Falcons made it right and lost. While they choked by scoring a td instead of stopping at the 1, they then choked by allowing the td drive.

[Grube]

I wonder if Drew Lock will stop staring down receivers and throwing deep into triple coverage when he has someone wide open instead at some point.

Denver's special teams and offense are so bad that the Chiefs offense doesn't even get to see the field.

[Vetali]

'rona turned Cam into Blaine Gabbert.

[xskarma]

The Patriots offense is awful. I doubt even 3 weeks of practice time could fix the issues they are having. As good as Cam was the first week or 2, he's been as bad the last 2 weeks. (not that he's getting any help mind you)

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'rona turned Cam into Blaine Gabbert.

lol that drew a pained laugh. You are not wrong.