View Poll Results: Is technology good or bad?

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  • Good

    48 88.89%
  • Bad

    6 11.11%
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  1. #21
    Technology has the potential to do much good for the human race. As of now, a great portion of it is being used for anything but that. But it's not a problem of technology, it's a problem of the system.

  2. #22
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Are you of the opinion that that is what is expected today from low-skilled workers?
    Absolutely yes, even the most seemingly mundane jobs like clerk, janitor, truck driver, or whatever, can nary get through a day in which at least one new thing happens for which there is no prior in their past experience(training data). A classical inductive AI only has knowledge that is distributed between the training examples it has already seen. The real world is very "messy" and highly unpredictably and just one never before experienced event will cause a functional breakdown to a non-AGI.

    Also, people generally have no clue how much complexity goes into low-skill work. Often times what we consider to be the bottom of the barrel, low skill physical work, is actually the most difficult to automate. The reason for that is because of Moravec's paradox.
    Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-22 at 11:47 AM.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  3. #23

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by AryuFate View Post
    like the mystics in developing countries.
    Huh? Wut? /10char

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by jonnysensible View Post
    The wheel was a mistake!
    Think of all the people pulling sleds who were put out of work by the wheel!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Absolutely yes, even the most seemingly mundane jobs like clerk, janitor, truck driver, or whatever, can nary get through a day in which at least one new thing happens for which there is no prior in their past experience(training data). A classical inductive AI only has knowledge that is distributed between the training examples it has already seen. The real world is very "messy" and highly unpredictably and just one never before experienced event will cause a functional breakdown to a non-AGI.

    Also, people generally have no clue how much complexity goes into low-skill work. Often times what we consider to be the bottom of the barrel, low skill physical work, is actually the most difficult to automate. The reason for that is because of Moravec's paradox.
    Most of the unpredictability in mundane tasks is derived from the human element. By increasing automation you are reducing to eliminating unpredictability.

    This is why factories are looking more and more like this...



    It's also why most job loss to manufacturing wasn't due to outsourcing but due to automation.

    It's why self driving cars are already safer than cars driven by humans.

    It's why most vending points for things like tickets or fast food are now automated etc.

    Automation, computation and machine-human interfaces have absolutely leapfrogged in the past 10 years, if the trend keeps for the next 10 (absolutely no reason why it wouldn't) a stunning amount of low skilled work will become redundant in the Western world.

    I work in geological services (geological engineering, mining, dredging, water management, environmental impact management), a lot of what we do is quite labor intensive. When I started working in the industry about 13 years ago the ratio of skilled to low skilled labor on most projects was around 1 to 3. Thanks to automation, pre-fabrication, and increased access to software solutions today we are down to 1-1 and this is not because we need significantly more skilled labor, we just need less low skilled labor. We can do more in less time with fewer people, and this is just a 13 year period in one industry.

    I mean, not to mention the average midsized office lost about 50% administrative and backoffice staff in the past 20 years due to software solutions, databases etc. The number is even higher for larger companies that can afford personalized software solutions and not just off the shelf commercial software.
    Last edited by Mihalik; 2020-02-22 at 12:36 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Orlong View Post
    It doesnt destroy the land to bury styrofoam 25 feet below the ground
    Today Obama once again kneeled at the altar of environmental naziism and hurt this once great country. He has now banned all drilling in the Atlantic Ocean

  5. #25
    I am a firm believer in Internet Regulation.

    Cults, Pyramid Schemes, Sex Trafficking, Brain Washing, Racist stunts... all of these are due to an unregulated internet.

    Fucking President Trump being elected is due to an unregulated internet.

    It has damaged our species permanently.

  6. #26
    Humankind has gone downhill ever since the invention of the wheel...

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by XangXu View Post
    I am a firm believer in Internet Regulation.

    Cults, Pyramid Schemes, Sex Trafficking, Brain Washing, Racist stunts... all of these are due to an unregulated internet.

    Fucking President Trump being elected is due to an unregulated internet.

    It has damaged our species permanently.
    Yes all those problems were only because of the internet and never happened before in all of history.
    Expansion leak claiming Legion is the last expansion
    Quote Originally Posted by golds
    NO it will be me laughing at how you doubted this....
    Quote Originally Posted by golds
    I was right

  8. #28
    If the goal is to walk towards a Star Trek style way of life then yes technology is a fantastic vehicle for that movement ( i know great war etc happened along the way ) but if we are moving towards a corporate structure where the whims of the wealthy are deemed more applicable and given priority over the ails of the common man then i would rather we course correct before going forward.

    People think of automation services is a problem now wait until the next large scale economic pull back and corporations along with government services are incentivized to reduce labor metrics by any means. I can actually see a harsh style of austerity given to the American populace and with how stupid / misguided a very very very large section of America is they will cheer it on.

    So yes if we can get our ducks in a row and no if we can not.

  9. #29
    strange question. technology is survival.

  10. #30
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    @Mihalik Good points overall, I just have two couple quibbles.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Automation, computation and machine-human interfaces have absolutely leapfrogged in the past 10 years, if the trend keeps for the next 10 (absolutely no reason why it wouldn't) a stunning amount of low skilled work will become redundant in the Western world.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    I mean, not to mention the average midsized office lost about 50% administrative and backoffice staffin the past 20 years due to software solutions, databases etc. The number is even higher for larger companies that can afford personalized software solutions and not just off the shelf commercial software.
    One vital thing that you absolutely must avoid is reasoning about the future based on generalizing historical numbers. (See avatar and sig fallacy)

    Trends could have been happening for thousands of years and it would have no effect whatsoever on how automation and technology will effect the jobs going into the future. Because no amount of automating past jobs means that future jobs will be automatable at the same rate. Whether or not automation of new jobs happens slower, the same, or faster, is 100% entirely independent of the historical trend. Not to mention that kind of historical data can't tell us anything at all about the entirely new jobs and industries that can be created in the next decade, the decade after that, and so on. Anybody who tells you that they know what the future of the job market looks like and what the future of work looks like is a charlatan.
    Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-22 at 08:15 PM.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  11. #31
    Of course it's good. Anyone that thinks otherwise is an idiot.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    @Mihalik Good points overall, I just has two couple quibbles.



    One vital thing is that you absolutely must avoid reasoning about the future based on generalizing historical numbers. (See avatar and sig fallacy)

    Trends could have been happening for thousands of years and it would have no effect whatsoever on how automation and technology will effect the jobs going into the future. Because no amount of automating past jobs means that future jobs will be automatable at the same rate. Whether or not automation of new jobs happens slower, the same, or faster, is 100% entirely independent of the historical trend. Not to mention that kind of historical data can't tell us anything at all about the entirely new jobs and industries that can be created in the next decade, the decade after that, and so on. Anybody who tells you that they know what the future of the job market looks like and what the future of work looks like is a charlatan.
    That's a massive asinine spin on the appeal to probability fallacy. While you cannot make certain predictions and changes in trends can alter future outcomes your best bet for making any preparation for the future is based on past patterns.

    It is why I specifically said "if the trend keeps" (English is hard, I know), and why I also mentioned there's no reason I could see why the trend wouldn't hold.

    Fact is the trend for the past roughly 250 years has been that low skilled labor is replaced by automation. The trend never changed simply accelerated. The acceleration of the trend is another thing that has held consistently over the past 250 years. What we got bailed out by when it comes to keeping people employed was the shift from a production economy to a services based economy, and while automation has mostly focused on production, it is now also increasingly focused on the services sector.

    Your argument is basically this.

    -People in burning houses typically die.
    Your reply to this.
    -We cannot make future predictions based past patterns, thus next time you find yourself in a burning house, you should just sit still, you might be the exception to the past patterns.

    Furthermore even admitting your premise you could in equal measure say that the trend of low skilled jobs being replaced by automation will not slow down or stop but would rather massively and explosively accelerate.

    I'm not some luddite and I don't think we can make exact predictions about the future, but as someone who actually runs a business and who works in an industry where the rapid incorporation of new technologies, systems and equipment combined with cost reduction is a competitive necessity I pay attention to trends, and we actually invest quite a bit in trend analysis.

    But that doesn't change the fact that I fucking have to recognize that demand for low skilled labor is dropping in most areas and that people who are stuck in that job category are fucked in the near future and that is a political, social and economic problem.

    On the short term some areas like caring for the elderly will give refuge to some people, it is not a solution.
    Quote Originally Posted by Orlong View Post
    It doesnt destroy the land to bury styrofoam 25 feet below the ground
    Today Obama once again kneeled at the altar of environmental naziism and hurt this once great country. He has now banned all drilling in the Atlantic Ocean

  13. #33
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    While you cannot make certain predictions and changes in trends can alter future outcomes your best bet for making any preparation for the future is based on past patterns.
    Nope it's 100% impossible that changes in trends(which are entirely historical) can alter future outcomes. A change in the trend at the latest observed data points fundamentally cannot have any causal power over the next unobserved data point. If that were true we would literally not even have to collect data in the real world because we would simply know the future ahead of time based on analyzing a graph.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    It is why I specifically said "if the trend keeps" (English is hard, I know), and why I also mentioned there's no reason I could see why the trend wouldn't hold.
    That's where you're wrong, there's no reason to think that ANY trend will hold, good or bad. But since you sound like a projectionist then you would also have to say that you believe that global jobs will be going up past 3.3+ bil (150+ mil US) because the trend says that jobs are being created and going up right now. If you think trends are destiny then you can't just cherry pick some trends and ignore others.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Fact is the trend for the past roughly 250 years has been that low skilled labor is replaced by automation. The trend never changed simply accelerated. The acceleration of the trend is another thing that has held consistently over the past 250 years.
    I suggest you read about the 'problem of induction'. No trend, no matter how big the number or the amount of data means that the next data point will continue along its historical path. Or even if that trend does continue it may be counteracted by new kinds of low skill jobs being created in new low skill industries.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Your argument is basically this.

    -People in burning houses typically die.
    Your reply to this.
    -We cannot make future predictions based past patterns, thus next time you find yourself in a burning house, you should just sit still, you might be the exception to the past patterns.
    No I never said firefighters shouldn't do their jobs because they can't 'predict' everything that will happen. I'm saying fire fighters should do their jobs based on the *explanations* and training they received about how fires work and behave, and how that might relate to houses, their structural integrity, and the medical needs of the people inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    But that doesn't change the fact that I fucking have to recognize that demand for low skilled labor is dropping in most areas and that people who are stuck in that job category are fucked in the near future and that is a political, social and economic problem.
    Okay i'm not saying don't recognizing trends i'm saying don't use that trend as proof of what will happen in the future. Demand could go lower in 2020, it could level off, it could go up. Your opinion of the future is speculation and isn't scientific.
    Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-23 at 02:41 AM.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    The greatest technological threat atm is AI.

    Just think of how those ten billion people in third world countries will react when all their work and income is taken away and will go to Google AI in California instead. Some of those third world countries have a whole lot of people, weapons and even some nukes. And they'll also have a whole lot of time to kill when they no longer have jobs.
    since you specifically mentioned "at the moment"...
    AI atm is moving towards replacing white collar jobs. Office jobs. Assistants, accountants, paralegals, etc.
    Robotic automation (not AI) is the thing that is replacing manual labour jobs for decades in factories and supply lines. There are still plenty of such works around even if it is happening for decades.
    and the geek shall inherit the earth

  15. #35
    Tech today isn't about benefiting society at all. It's only about profitability.
    If there was some way to measure it, I would think that we're probably about a century from where we should be in terms of innovation and technological progress.
    Acquittal doesn't mean exoneration


  16. #36
    Titan I Push Buttons's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redwyrm View Post
    The only problem with technology I can list at the moment is people driving while on their phones (talking and texting)
    Don't forget that little pollution destroying the climate and dooming our species to extinction kerfuffle.

  17. #37
    What's up with the sudden resurgence of Luddites?

  18. #38
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinese Bootlickers View Post
    What's up with the sudden resurgence of Luddites?
    They think that life was better in the past because of cherry picked examples of when a small group of people lived in relative comfort. Those people living in comfort were the ones writing books, making movies, etc, so it gives us a romanticized and distorted vision of how life was simpler/"better" during those eras when the technology was primitive... Then they jump to the assumption that their lives don't seem as good because modern technology has somehow robbed us of what is "natural" and thus "good".

    Plus the whole "taking our jubs" trope.
    Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-23 at 03:38 PM.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Calfredd View Post
    Yes all those problems were only because of the internet and never happened before in all of history.
    Except the internet makes it easy.

    Now you can get in touch with a radical right wing malitia group and start your training for the revolution when your mom gets angry at you.

    It didn’t used to be like that.

    The internet, unregulated, is a tool often used for harm.

    Personally, I think there should be a law that enforces anonymity. Your real name should be viewable by anyone, like a phone book.

    That would solve a lot. You’d still have your precious freedom of speech, and trolling would almost vanish.

    Or

    A seperate internet needs to emerge. One that would be run and monitered and CONTROLLED above all else. You could either use it or not, but the idea would be that it would not be a wild west.
    Last edited by XangXu; 2020-02-23 at 04:18 PM.

  20. #40
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by XangXu View Post
    Personally, I think there should be a law that enforces anonymity. Your real name should be viewable by anyone, like a phone book.
    That can't happen though in countries that have human rights because the businesses that release their customers private information to the public would be guilty of violating various privacy and doxxing laws. There could however be an opt-in mechanism for those who consent to releasing their private information.
    Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-24 at 07:13 AM.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

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