2020 Recession

[Zan15]

Actually no because predictions that are based on data can fundamentally only tell you that the current trend will continue forever. Data-based prediction can never tell you when a trend will be falsified and come to an end.

Yes exactly, anything 'non-trivial'. The future is impossible to predict in principle.

then you miss the whole point of a general prediction and are arguing for the sake of arguing...with no real intent on a real discussion of the topic.

[PC2]

then you miss the whole point of a general prediction and are arguing for the sake of arguing...with no real intent on a real discussion of the topic.

Okay so the "intent" of my argument is to stop people from making prophecies because it's harmful and prevents the discussion from being about problem solving and explanations. If somebody wants to make a prophecy it is totally fine but they have to add words like "It's speculated that X will happen" because otherwise there are a lot of people who will take statements of the future as a matter of fact and not conjecture.

[breadisfunny]

Okay so the "intent" of my argument is to stop people from making prophecies because it's harmful and prevents the discussion from being about problem solving and explanations. If somebody wants to make a prophecy it is totally fine but they have to add words like "It's speculated that X will happen" because otherwise there are a lot of people who will take statements of the future as a matter of fact and not conjecture.

except according to you any sort of future projection is a prophecy.

[Zan15]

Okay so the "intent" of my argument is to stop people from making prophecies because it's harmful and prevents the discussion from being about problem solving and explanations. If somebody wants to make a prophecy it is totally fine but they have to add words like "It's speculated that X will happen" because otherwise there are a lot of people who will take statements of the future as a matter of fact and not conjecture.

How can you have a discussion about possible outcomes when you are not allowed to talk about things and models that could possibly have a thousand variances and come up with a consensus on what may or may not happen.

Your stance dictates that having an actual discussion is impossible.

I think most people already get that any prediction is just that a prediction that could change for any thousand of reasons.

[Thekri]

I think it was Fauci that said that the models determining deaths are always fluctuating because things are being done to prevent and contain the virus.
But we have spots...and individuals...
Still, the US has the highest amount of cases..yet one of the the lowest death rates per million people.

The bolded part is highly misleading. The death rate in the US is actually pretty close to Italy's when you compare recovered cases with deaths. Because it is spreading so fast in the US, the vast majority of people who have Covid-19 have only had it for a less then 15 days, and it typically takes around that period of time from infection to kill.

So you can't just divide the number of cases by the number of deaths, because that would assume that nobody else that currently has the virus will die, so the rate will be too low. Comparing number of deaths to number of recoveries will yield a result that is much too high, because it takes a lot longer to recover then it takes to die, so there are many people that will be fine still in the recovery process.

So it is complicated, but what you are seeing isn't the result of a better survival rate, is the result of a much sharper curve. So that our new cases haven't had as much time to progress as Italy's.

[Shadowferal]

The bolded part is highly misleading. The death rate in the US is actually pretty close to Italy's when you compare recovered cases with deaths.

Their death rate 192 per million. You want to conflate...add numbers.
I wonder why.

[unfilteredJW]

then you miss the whole point of a general prediction and are arguing for the sake of arguing...with no real intent on a real discussion of the topic.

That's their MO.

[Thekri]

Their death rate 192 per million. You want to conflate...add numbers.
I wonder why.

No, I am not conflating, I am saying that getting any sort of meaningful rate from live data is hard.

Italy has a higher death rate because they have had more people sick for a longer period of time. While we have more current cases, the majority of our cases have only been sick for a few days, while their cases have been sick longer, and are dying in larger numbers. This is why Italy's new case numbers have been slowly backing down, while their deaths per day continue to grow, because all the people that got sick 2-3 weeks ago are either dying or recovering.

Right now there are just too many unknowns to really make a conclusive statement. We don't have a good picture of when we are catching cases (IE, are we detecting shortly after infection, or only when they are already having serious symptoms and about to die). What we do know is that the US has a much steeper curve of known cases, and that will skew the data toward a low death rate, because the 50k+ that got it in the last 3 days aren't really dying yet (Again, unless they already had critical symptoms when tested, which we don't know right now).

[Shadowferal]

No, I am not conflating, I am saying that getting any sort of meaningful rate from live data is hard.
Italy has a higher death rate because they have had more people sick for a longer period of time.

Italy's first case was Jan 29
US first case was Jan 20

[Thekri]

Italy's first case was Jan 29
US first case was Jan 20

And they hit 20,000 cases on Mar 15, we hit 20,000 on March 21. Which is the more relevant statistic here. They spiked earlier, and you know this.

It is a simple concept. Imagine a hypothetical disease with 100% fatality rate, and it kills you exactly 7 days after you get it. Everyone got it less then 7 days ago will still be alive, and therefore the rate appear to be less then 100%. The faster people are infected, the larger percentage of the total cases will have occurred in the last 7 days, and the lower the fatality rate will appear to be. The actual fatality rate doesn't change, it is still 100% in this example, but the perceived rate is proportionate to the rate of increase every 7 days, not the actual fatality rate. This is why cases/death is a useless statistic for determining death rates. At this point we can't definitely say if our mortality rate is actually lower, or if our infection rate is higher. It could be either, it could be both.

[PC2]

except according to you any sort of future projection is a prophecy.

Yes exactly the reason for that is because the future never unfolds based on historical trends. That would be awesome if we could know the future based on the past but unfortunately that's based on a misunderstanding about how people reverse historical trends by creating new knowledge on a constant basis.

So as far as a recession caused by the virus we could be in one for a couple months or a couple years but we'll reverse that trend by creating new knowledge and growing the economy. However there's no amount of historical data that can tell us when a recession will start or end.

[Draco-Onis]

Yes exactly the reason for that is because the future never unfolds based on historical trends. That would be awesome if we could know the future based on the past but unfortunately that's based on a misunderstanding about how people reverse historical trends by creating new knowledge on a constant basis.

So as far as a recession caused by the virus we could be in one for a couple months or a couple years but we'll reverse that trend by creating new knowledge and growing the economy. However there's no amount of historical data that can tell us when a recession will start or end.

We didn't get out of the last recession by creating new knowledge and growing the economy, it must be some drug you are on.

[Vash The Stampede]

We need to design and implement an economic system that does not collapse when something like a pandemic hits. Maybe instead of using our best and brightest to explore other planets we should use them to set up such a system.

Universal Basic Income. If people didn't have to 100% depend on employment for money then recessions recovery much more quickly. Assuming this ends later this year, people won't spend their money. If anything a lot of people are going to be hurting for money and will take years to recovery financially. A UBI will help people rebound in spending and also rebound the economy.

Yes exactly the reason for that is because the future never unfolds based on historical trends. That would be awesome if we could know the future based on the past but unfortunately that's based on a misunderstanding about how people reverse historical trends by creating new knowledge on a constant basis.

So as far as a recession caused by the virus we could be in one for a couple months or a couple years but we'll reverse that trend by creating new knowledge and growing the economy. However there's no amount of historical data that can tell us when a recession will start or end.

I predicted market collapse would happen between September of 2019 to April of 2020, based on the trends that was going on around the world. People living paycheck to paycheck along with late payments and no savings suggests the market only needed a black swan event to cause this collapse. Coronavirus is one hell of a black swan but here we are. Again, this isn't a recession but a depression because before corona we were already dealing with 2008. We look too much at the stock market and unemployment numbers to determine the economies health and those metrics are awful. If people had savings, if people had a Universal Health Care system, and if people didn't have crippling debt then the effects of the corona wouldn't be this bad. But people are still trying to work because people can't go a month without a paycheck and this spreads the disease even further. This makes matters worse for our hospitals which are ill equipped to deal with patients staying in hospitals because of how expensive it is, which is a byproduct of our private healthcare system. '

Nobody foresaw coronavirus, but people knew this was coming, like Bill Gates. Many economists predicted a recession in 2020, so this shouldn't be a shock to anyone... Anyone except those who were ignorant to the information given to them, which was a lot of people. Even as we talk about this situation, our superiors are still ignorant to the situation. They're hoping to go back to 2019 type of economy and it won't happen. The country should be shutdown and we should start a UBI asap, before people start breaking into homes and businesses looking for money, if they haven't already begun.

[kamuimac]

Their death rate 192 per million. You want to conflate...add numbers.
I wonder why.

oh just wait 2-3 weeks.

Italy was acting like this too month ago.

now they cant keep up with cremating bodies and funerals

[ErrandRunner]

China should start paying reparations for all the damage their coronavirus has spread throughout the globe. Or at least excuse external debt owed to them - at the least.

[Machismo]

China should start paying reparations for all the damage their coronavirus has spread throughout the globe. Or at least excuse external debt owed to them - at the least.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

Nor should it happen.

[Vash The Stampede]

China should start paying reparations for all the damage their coronavirus has spread throughout the globe. Or at least excuse external debt owed to them - at the least.

Firstly, nobody took the coronavirus seriously. Not China, not America, not Europe, not until large number of people were dying. Secondly, China did not make the virus as it was an act of nature. Thirdly, nobody is going to have money after this, including China, so reparations are impossible.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

So apparently it will be called : The Great Lockdown

Courtesy of IMF

As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial.

[CastletonSnob]

With the tariffs, tax cuts, and Coronavirus, I think we're headed for a full-on depression.

[xenogear3]

So apparently it will be called : The Great Lockdown

Courtesy of IMF

For people who don't know, -3% is unreal.
This is because China always claims 10+%. It was 6% last year.
India has crazy number too.