How the European Union may not survive the Coronavirus

[Gaidax]

Nothing to worry about and to be expected considering the amount of misinformation being put out during this crisis. Similar things happened with Greece during their financial crisis, i invite you to have a debate with greeks here on this forum based on facts.

The government in power there or is slated to wing is very right leaning and nationalistic and nothing serves them better than creating a foreign enemy.

Italy leaving the EU as some of these fanatics are advocating during this crisis and the aftermath would plunge the nation into such a debt situation that it would take decades to recover. So even the far right fan club won't pull that trigger.

Democracies are democracies and you can't underestimate what a few can do to influence many - you just had UK and despite all the doom and gloom about how it would be an economic disaster - people voted to bail, because feelings are also part of the equation and a big one at that.

[Mayhem]

Democracies are democracies and you can't underestimate what a few can do to influence many - you just had UK and despite all the doom and gloom about how it would be an economic disaster - people voted to bail, because feelings are also part of the equation and a big one at that.

UK was also not part of the eurozone and generally less involved with the mainland than countries on the mainland are. The austrian version of brexit died down literally when the UK voted to leave so much so that the party heavily rooting for an exit cut ties with the people responsible for brexit.

[Acidbaron]

Democracies are democracies and you can't underestimate what a few can do to influence many - you just had UK and despite all the doom and gloom about how it would be an economic disaster - people voted to bail, because feelings are also part of the equation and a big one at that.

The UK had decades of preparation and still barely managed to leave because they did so on a simple majority of barely a percentage. The stay campaign was awfully unprepared as even they utilized criticism against the EU to cover up their domestic failures. The brexit also has not happened yet and it is showing its marks on future investments in the UK but not fully so i can understand why people say it's a good thing, some europeans also believe it is a good thing still and not just because we'll be rid of them.
The brexit campaign was hard to beat, since it could promise everyone everything, everyone would get everything they ever wanted, more money for NHS and more staff while also less migrants (these two conflict), Fishers would get all they could fish and the banks would maintain their favourable position (fishing industry already said by Boris to be a bargaining chip for the other).
It is your typical advantage from being in the opposition, all you really have to do is blame something and promise miracles. There hasn't been an actual coherent plan for what the Brexit is suppose to be, one that is realistic for that matter, but getting off track.

Italy is hurting and has been hurting for a while, however when a bridge collapses onto a town their first thought is not to blame the EU but their local government.
Italy is in big political turmoil for a while now.

Also you have to understand these emotions are normal, some people lost multiple family members in quick succession of another. People are not rational when griefing and then you have people benefiting from chaos trying to control the narrative through misinformation, so this is fully to be expected but it also not more than that.

Italy splitting off from the EU does not have the same amount of public support it had in the UK and as stated before even there it was very divided.

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UK was also not part of the eurozone and generally less involved with the mainland than countries on the mainland are. The austrian version of brexit died down literally when the UK voted to leave so much so that the party heavily rooting for an exit cut ties with the people responsible for brexit.

Oh plenty of scandals surrounding such parties, especially when reporters starting digging up their finances. Yikes, a lot of Russian support and some of them were even stupid enough to go for photo's with Bashir El Assad. Not the brightest bunch in politics, also often they first rise to political power on local levels and more often than not when they have to present actual plans to move beyond hating and shouting on people it falls short, they ride on the waves of failed political choices but are incapable of presenting an alternative.

At best they maintain their base by bribing people. Nothing more than clientelism what is nice for a short while but unsustainable if you want to see an example of that you can look at the southern region of my country. Filled with plenty of poor choices and only sustains their way of doing things due to money transfers from the north but absolutely fears the increase rise of separatism in the north what is something they fuel very well.

[Gaidax]

*snip*

All that are valid musing for the other time. I don't think you quite realize the anger over EU in Italy right now. You can say all you like that much of it has no merit, but people are people and when even their government tells them that EU is not responding well to their plight, you can imagine what will come once this is over.

First they will hang their leaders on the lamppost (well not really, but you know what I mean) and they aren't going to vote in EU-lovers instead, you can bet that.

It's a simple reality. It's exactly how Farage managed to do what he did and in case of Italy it will be even easier.

[Acidbaron]

All that are valid musing for the other time. I don't think you quite realize the anger over EU in Italy right now. You can say all you like that much of it has no merit, but people are people and when even their government tells them that EU is not responding well to their plight, you can imagine what will come once this is over.

It's a simple reality. It's exactly how Farage managed to do what he did and in case of Italy it will be even easier.

You don't life there and neither do i, we are both watching it through a window created by others. I would also warn you by using social media as a benchmark for how an entire population feels, it is one thing to be angry it is a whole another thing to advocate leaving. I don't dispute the anger i do dispute the political agenda some are trying to attach to it because it suits them.

You seem to be unaware that euro-scepticism is a very broad term as it encompasses a whole lot of people, for example i am one, so is my political party and so is Farage. You would never say that from me due to my stance on the EU here on topics but that's because they are generally mostly about extremist standpoints, rarely do people discuss things here as social dumping or subsidies towards some nations.
It is very much possible to be critical of the EU and its actions while not advocating for a complete isolation of the Union, i and many others believe that change comes from within, some people are advocating for a tabula rasa thinking that if they leave the EU suddenly most issues are solved, economic, immigration and so forth that is a lie. This ties in to what i said earlier about the Brexit, the Brexit much like euro-scepticism means a whole lot of different things to a whole lot of different people, that's why once it became more concrete the support against a Brexit became louder aka 'That is not what i voted for!'.

[Teleros]

Italexit when?

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status...70818695319554

I expect the EU to become more popular after the wuflu subsides (a lot of answers to the above poll will be spur-of-the-moment ones), but it's still not good for the EU. Well, not good politically. Economically, getting Italy (and the other PIIGS countries) out would probably be a benefit, but the EU's always put politics above economics.

[Acidbaron]

Italexit when?

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status...70818695319554

I expect the EU to become more popular after the wuflu subsides (a lot of answers to the above poll will be spur-of-the-moment ones), but it's still not good for the EU. Well, not good politically. Economically, getting Italy (and the other PIIGS countries) out would probably be a benefit, but the EU's always put politics above economics.

Since you declare yourself an self proclaimed expert, you are free to explain the bolded part knowing the status of the euro-bonds proposal after this weeks EU meeting.

You are simply parroting things of others with little to no knowledge of what you are actually speaking off, best to stick to your own turf that being nationalist inspired racism in backwater england counties.

[NED funded]

Can someone here explain what happened in Hungary????

Because AFAIK they just gave their leader unlimited power for an unlimited time. Essentially dictatorship

[Pann]

Economically, getting Italy (and the other PIIGS countries) out would probably be a benefit...

I don't think this is the case, if Italy were to leave the EU there is a possibility that it would bring down the Euro.

[Acidbaron]

I don't think this is the case, if Italy were to leave the EU there is a possibility that it would bring down the Euro.

Them suddenly no longer using the euro currency would be a long process, as for how long i have read years considering you need to convert everything back to the lira. Ignoring the issues of how you would actually convert the euro back to it, considering the debt Italy has it would also have issues with their bonds for future investments.

It would be even more complicated than the Brexit is now and we all know how great that is going for them. That aside i don't see how it would bring down the euro other that it being based that more countries would want to follow, what again i see no basis for considering what all is involved in making that actual switch. Not even Greece at the height of their crisis considered going back to their coin (dragma?) a serious alternative.

If we ignore all the complicated issues, how this would effect the euro value is something hard to speculate about as you are losing a nation in the chain but you are also losing debt, my market knowledge does not extend to that level to make serious speculation about that.

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Can someone here explain what happened in Hungary????

Because AFAIK they just gave their leader unlimited power for an unlimited time. Essentially dictatorship

National Emergency, Orban party also holds most of the seats in parliament and they are also the only ones who can end this. How this came to be well, he got rid of his opposition and took slowly and surely control of more of the branches of power. He even closed down schools and universities that were embracing critical thinking and thus critical of him.

The EU tried to take action several times but Poland veto'ed it. They gained public support to oppose actions against Hungary as the narrative was changed. The EU made it about a breach of separation of powers, while those two countries made it about being forced to take refugees in. Plenty of people on the right to far right bought that lie and here we are now, with essentially a self declared supreme leader.

I for see action being take and Poland being but in a very uncomfortable position. However it does not take priority but Orbans arrogance and boldness will come back in the long run as to being his own downfall. Not sure if Orban is still part of the Christian democratic fraction inside the EU, would have to look that up. That's the fraction that houses also the CDU, what is Merkels party there were previous conflicts already.

[Mayhem]

Can someone here explain what happened in Hungary????

Because AFAIK they just gave their leader unlimited power for an unlimited time. Essentially dictatorship

It was ten years in the making, but yes, they are essentially a dictatorship now.

[Kallisto]

Can someone here explain what happened in Hungary????

Because AFAIK they just gave their leader unlimited power for an unlimited time. Essentially dictatorship

Orban for a decade has been slowly grabbing more power and being anti-democratic (The true reason EU has been trying to clamp down on him, not Refugee reasons) for the past decade. Corona has basically been his Reichstag fire excuse to finish off what little democracy is left.

[Fuiking]

Italy absolutely hates the Netherlands now it seems.

[Teleros]

Since you declare yourself an self proclaimed expert, you are free to explain the bolded part

Where did I declare myself that? I look at things like the CAP & CFP, or best of all the way the Euro was created (common monetary policy but no common fiscal policy). If the EU was genuinely putting economics before politics, it would not have created the Euro that way, because - as has been seen - it's been a huge issue.

I don't think this is the case, if Italy were to leave the EU there is a possibility that it would bring down the Euro.

If sensibly managed I don't think that need be the case. The split between northern & southern Europe WRT fiscal policy and all that is pretty bad for the Euro, so getting the more profligate countries out would probably stabilise the Euro.

As for Hungary, it'll be interesting to see where it goes once wuflu has cleared up. Orban clearly doesn't give two figs what pro-democracy types think, but there's a big difference between becoming your average tin-pot dictator and going the route of Russia under Putin, for example. As many countries around the world have shown (China & Russia especially), ordinary people can put up with a lot of undemocratic government if it's also a reasonably effective government.

[Pann]

If sensibly managed I don't think that need be the case. The split between northern & southern Europe WRT fiscal policy and all that is pretty bad for the Euro, so getting the more profligate countries out would probably stabilise the Euro.

That is a different prospect entirely to Italy leaving the EU. Italy's national debt is greater than GDP and is in Euros, if it was to leave it would be faced with repaying this with a devalued currency thus there is a change they will default - although with the Chinese currently doing their best to cause as much division as possible I suppose there is a possibility that they will think a few hundred-billion Euros to bail Italy out is price worth paying - and this is before you get into the complication of Target2 balances and the devastation CV19 will leave behind.

Unsurprisingly there is a great deal of fear and anger going around at the moment but given the risks to both Italy and the EU there is an incentive for both sides to work this out and I don't think it will happen.

[Acidbaron]

Italy absolutely hates the Netherlands now it seems.

Rutte lacks tact and diplomacy, because the Netherlands were not alone in objection to the euro-bond proposal, Germany and Finland also opposed it if i am not mistaken.

Rutte essentially went and told a nation in distress that they simply should have had their books better in order before this crisis. So there's that.

[Stelio Kontos]

I'm not a fan of the EU, and I think in the long run Greece would be better off out of the EU. But I do think it's interesting how the virus is laying bare the false face of the EU. There's no solidarity or help between the members. As soon as the virus started spreading, it became every man for himself.

The northern countries, like the Netherlands and Germany, don't want to extend any help to the south. The south is growing increasingly angry about the lack of help from the centralized EU government and are wondering what they bothered to sign up for.

Hell, didn't Germany stop medical supplies from going to Italy to keep them for themselves?

Hmm, here's what I found on that.

https://www.ft.com/content/d3bc25ea-...3-fe4680ea68b5

When Italy asked for urgent medical supplies under a special European crisis mechanism no EU country responded. Fearful of its own shortages, Germany initially banned the export of medical masks and other protective gear. 3M, a producer, said the German restrictions had made it impossible to supply the Italian market. Berlin subsequently relaxed the export rules, but then Austria closed its borders to people arriving from Italy unless they could prove they were virus-free.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14...aly-china-aid/

So the problem isn't just us profligate, parasitical southern Europeans, as is often made the case by "we never do wrong" northerners. If the EU can't (or more accurately won't) help members with a fucking pandemic, and solidarity is nonexistent except for northerners working and profiting with each other only then what's the point of the whole Frankenstate?

[Acidbaron]

I'm not a fan of the EU, and I think in the long run Greece would be better off out of the EU. But I do think it's interesting how the virus is laying bare the false face of the EU. There's no solidarity or help between the members. As soon as the virus started spreading, it became every man for himself.

The northern countries, like the Netherlands and Germany, don't want to extend any help to the south. The south is growing increasingly angry about the lack of help from the centralized EU government and are wondering what they bothered to sign up for.

Hell, didn't Germany stop medical supplies from going to Italy to keep them for themselves?

Hmm, here's what I found on that.

https://www.ft.com/content/d3bc25ea-...3-fe4680ea68b5

When Italy asked for urgent medical supplies under a special European crisis mechanism no EU country responded. Fearful of its own shortages, Germany initially banned the export of medical masks and other protective gear. 3M, a producer, said the German restrictions had made it impossible to supply the Italian market. Berlin subsequently relaxed the export rules, but then Austria closed its borders to people arriving from Italy unless they could prove they were virus-free.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14...aly-china-aid/

So the problem isn't just us profligate, parasitical southern Europeans, as is often made the case by "we never do wrong" northerners. If the EU can't (or more accurately won't) help members with a fucking pandemic, and solidarity is nonexistent except for northerners working and profiting with each other only then what's the point of the whole Frankenstate?

Not just Germany every nation stopped medical supplies from crossing borders amidst the initial panic once the virus entered EU domain.
So yes it was very much every man for himself, but this would have been the case if the roles were turned. National interests never went away in the EU otherwise we would be much further along. The whole we never do wrong part and profiting from others is something you made up and as someone claiming to be Greek you should know better, because would you like to state how much bail out money that nation actually got, while the crisis they got into was due to cooking the books, large corruption schemes, tax evasions, sold your country out to rich russians...

So sure be angry about the complete lack of solidarity but not everything is the fault of the "northerns", the sentiment that you echo is why everyone had such a big issue with helping out Greece for the n-th time. Portugal was not forced onto austerity etc.

Not to say the complete lack of solidarity from some is shocking, but drop the "greece did nothing wrong" bullshit. It's old and it's wrong and will only lead to a mentality that ensures Greece will keep digging themselves in the same hole every time again. You are buying into far-right and left fairy tales.

Germany is also taking in patients from "southern nations".

[Stelio Kontos]

Some countries, especially those like Italy, Spain, Greece, Croatia etc. that depend significantly on tourism are going to be hammered, while others will escape with significantly less damage. If there was any kind of measure of European solidarity the countries better off would help those that will struggle.

Well, the solution is easy, don't you see? Just look at Greece. If those lazy, parasitical, profligate Untermenschen can't afford to keep their hotels, resorts, and other tourist businesses they need afloat, they can just sell them to foreign interests in Germany, the Netherlands, or Finland for a fraction of what they're worth. Poverty and desperation are great motivators for economic growth (for Germany and Co.).

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Not just Germany every nation stopped medical supplies from crossing borders amidst the initial panic once the virus entered EU domain.
So yes it was very much every man for himself, but this would have been the case if the roles were turned. National interests never went away in the EU otherwise we would be much further along. The whole we never do wrong part and profiting from others is something you made up and as someone claiming to be Greek you should know better, because would you like to state how much bail out money that nation actually got, while the crisis they got into was due to cooking the books, large corruption schemes, tax evasions, sold your country out to rich russians...

So sure be angry about the complete lack of solidarity but not everything is the fault of the "northerns", the sentiment that you echo is why everyone had such a big issue with helping out Greece for the n-th time. Portugal was not forced onto austerity etc.

Not to say the complete lack of solidarity from some is shocking, but drop the "greece did nothing wrong" bullshit. It's old and it's wrong and will only lead to a mentality that ensures Greece will keep digging themselves in the same hole every time again. You are buying into far-right and left fairy tales.

Germany is also taking in patients from "southern nations".

I'm not lauding Greece, just pointing out that if there's no solidarity then there's no point to the whole EU scheme beyond expanding Germany's export market.

[Tuor]

I was enjoying your text until this came...

Portugal was not forced onto austerity etc.

Really, a 78 billion baillout, that forced unemployment to hit 18%, forced privatizations from the IMF... And you wrote that? Really?