Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Doctor Amadeus]

Biden's ahead by 7 points on average in Penn. Please stoop with the doomer shit dude, you're not helping

I’m just going by polls and interviews I’ve seen. Western PA could be a land mine.

[Breccia]

I’m saying this is the only path I see.

And I'm saying you only see that path because you're choosing to.

Look, why don't you just admit other options are possible but you like this one the best? Calling this "the only" is just...lying.

[DingDongKing]

Honestly I’m not sure he can get PA from everything I’ve been reading.

If we're being honest, you're coming off as trolly. I don't think you mean to? I think you're worried about how this is all going to go. But the fervour with which you're being pessimistic is resulting in people asking questions. Because there's other folk on here who do the same concern trolling.

Side note, and this is a serious side note. Harrison is currently polling +2 versus Graham for a few successive polls. All three of Georgia (Purdue vs Osoff), Iowa and South Carolina re likely being seen as tossups right now. They're going to be extremely tight races.

[Doctor Amadeus]

And I'm saying you only see that path because you're choosing to.

Look, why don't you just admit other options are possible but you like this one the best? Calling this "the only" is just...lying.

In my opinion it is the only hard likely. And again I’m not saying it’s going to happen. As I also said PA might go Trump there are strong indicators it will.

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If we're being honest, you're coming off as trolly. I don't think you mean to? I think you're worried about how this is all going to go. But the fervour with which you're being pessimistic is resulting in people asking questions. Because there's other folk on here who do the same concern trolling.

I am worried and being practical I really hope PA comes through that’s the big concern for me.

[Breccia]

Pennsylvania is the tipping point. Whomever wins Pennsylvania takes home the big prize.

I mean....technically, this isn't true either.

Biden is currently leading races by 3+ in 290 EC votes of states. PA is 20 of them. He could technically lose PA and still win the race.

I wouldn't advise it nor would I predict it, but it's a possible option. See, unlike some people, I admit other options are possible.

[Thepersona]

In my opinion it is the only hard likely. And again I’m not saying it’s going to happen. As I also said PA might go Trump there are strong indicators it will.

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I am worried and being practical I really hope PA comes through that’s the big concern for me.

Which ones? My dude, again, Polls favor Biden by 7 points on average. And polls are made via a statistically significant process. Interviews and whatever shit you do are not good methodology in generally.

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I’m just going by polls and interviews I’ve seen. Western PA could be a land mine.

Isnt Western PA penssiltulcky?

[Breccia]

As I also said PA might go Trump there are strong indicators it will.

There are stronger indicators it won't. For every poll you cite that has Trump ahead in PA, I can cite three where Biden leads by more.

[DingDongKing]

I mean....technically, this isn't true either.

Biden is currently leading races by 3+ in 290 EC votes of states. PA is 20 of them. He could technically lose PA and still win the race.

I wouldn't advise it nor would I predict it, but it's a possible option. See, unlike some people, I admit other options are possible.

Naturally, there are other options. If it comes down to said worst case where Biden can't carry AZ, FL, GA & NC then it's PA that is the tipping point.

[Doctor Amadeus]

I mean....technically, this isn't true either.

Biden is currently leading races by 3+ in 290 EC votes of states. PA is 20 of them. He could technically lose PA and still win the race.

I wouldn't advise it nor would I predict it, but it's a possible option. See, unlike some people, I admit other options are possible.

I’m going based on hard likely and history. Culture and current events.


Nearly 50 million have voted already mostly favoring Biden. But if people don’t show up and show out on Election Day I don’t know how this could go down.

[DingDongKing]

There are stronger indicators it won't. For every poll you cite that has Trump ahead in PA, I can cite three where Biden leads by more.

I haven't seen any polls where Trump is ahead of Biden in PA. Sure, there are rural areas of PA that will be red. But that's just life.

PA as a whole went very very blue in 2018, so barring some insane shift in the last two years, it's unlikely to swing red imo.

[Thepersona]

I haven't seen any polls where Trump is ahead of Biden in PA. Sure, there are rural areas of PA that will be red. But that's just life.

PA as a whole went very very blue in 2018, so barring some insane shift in the last two years, it's unlikely to swing red imo.

And even in the red parts of PA, it's less red than in 2016.

[DingDongKing]

-snip-

I think you need to chillout a bit. Not because I think this is a Biden landslide, but just because you need to chillout a bit.

[Belize]

I’m going based on hard likely and history. Culture and current events.


Nearly 50 million have voted already mostly favoring Biden. But if people don’t show up and show out on Election Day I don’t know how this could go down.

You sound like the people that were screaming about a Red Wave in 2018 and how the GOP were going to reclaim even more of the House.

[Thepersona]

I’m going based on hard likely and history. Culture and current events.


Nearly 50 million have voted already mostly favoring Biden. But if people don’t show up and show out on Election Day I don’t know how this could go down.

I get that. Anxiety is awful.

[Doctor Amadeus]

I haven't seen any polls where Trump is ahead of Biden in PA. Sure, there are rural areas of PA that will be red. But that's just life.

PA as a whole went very very blue in 2018, so barring some insane shift in the last two years, it's unlikely to swing red imo.

Well I hope you’re right.

[Felya]

Check out who was right all along:

Biden Seizes Trump’s Populist Mantle
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...mantle/616832/

The president vowed to remember the forgotten men and women of America—but tonight, he forgot them.

[DingDongKing]

You sound like the people that were screaming about a Red Wave in 2018 and how the GOP were going to reclaim even more of the House.

Na, I just think he's worried. And that's okay. We're ALL worried.

[Breccia]

I’m going based on hard likely and history. Culture and current events.

You are not going by current events. Current events have Biden winning Pennsylvania.

I don't even think you're going by history, either. Trump barely won Pennsylvania last time, and he's in a far worse state this time. Pennsylvania voted for Bill Clinton both times, Barack Obama both times, Al Gore and John Kerry, all of them by a wider margin than Trump won in 2016.

At this point, I think you're cherry picking.

[Shadowferal]

Based on their overall history I don’t see it happening.

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Exactly getting over confident is stupid.

It's no longer about overconfidence. That caution has run its course. People are voting in droves now, most minds are already made up.

[Breccia]

I haven't seen any polls where Trump is ahead of Biden in PA.

538 listed two yesterday where Trump was up by two. He'd gone weeks without any victories at all.

However, there were six yesterday where Biden won by +3 or more. Hence my statement.