Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Endus]

So I guess GOP Chairwoman McDaniels went on Chris Wallace's show to give the Republican pitch for covid -

"Trump did great, sorry people are dying, but we're choosing to be optimistic and upbeat about this so we don't needlessly scare people. Joe Biden is trying to scare us with dark days ahead."

The fucking fantasy world these people live in. YES, THIS WILL GET WORSE AND IT ALREADY IS GETTING WORSE YOU FUCKING COWARDLY FUCKS. How many of them need to lose loved ones before maybe they start taking this shit seriously?

I saw Mark Meadows waving that white flag earlier, "We can't control a pandemic!" NZ would like to have words with you, fucko.

Bonus points for the folks that defend the Confederate flag as a symbol of patriotism following in the footsteps of the Confederacy and raising a white flag of surrender.

How they meant that line to be taken; "We can't control a pandemic!"
The actual, proper emphasis; "We can't control a pandemic!"

Other nations are able to get this under control. The USA's failures to do so are failures of policy and willpower; a deficiency in American systems. It isn't an impossible ask, it's just not something the administration cares to take enough effort on.

[cubby]

So I guess GOP Chairwoman McDaniels went on Chris Wallace's show to give the Republican pitch for covid -

"Trump did great, sorry people are dying, but we're choosing to be optimistic and upbeat about this so we don't needlessly scare people. Joe Biden is trying to scare us with dark days ahead."

The fucking fantasy world these people live in. YES, THIS WILL GET WORSE AND IT ALREADY IS GETTING WORSE YOU FUCKING COWARDLY FUCKS. How many of them need to lose loved ones before maybe they start taking this shit seriously?

I saw Mark Meadows waving that white flag earlier, "We can't control a pandemic!" NZ would like to have words with you, fucko.

Bonus points for the folks that defend the Confederate flag as a symbol of patriotism following in the footsteps of the Confederacy and raising a white flag of surrender.

Those fucking people are criminally insanely delusional. My state is seeing a daily count spike of 250% from two days ago.

Fuck those fucking GOP assholes who are literally killing people with their delusional hands-off "this will just go away because our Dear Leader told us". Most of these people should be in jail.

[Eviscero]

How they meant that line to be taken; "We can't control a pandemic!"
The actual, proper emphasis; "We can't control a pandemic!"

Other nations are able to get this under control. The USA's failures to do so are failures of policy and willpower; a deficiency in American systems. It isn't an impossible ask, it's just not something the administration cares to take enough effort on.

Science tells us there are only two ways to control the pandemic: disinfectants and powerful UV light. We obviously can't go around injecting ourselves with bleach or swallowing UV lightbulbs...

UNLESS...!!

[Benggaul]

Wisconsin Dems are doing it again! Off the back of the wildly successful Princess Bride reunion reading fundraiser they're going to be doing Rocky Horror Picture Show on Halloween with Tim fucking Curry.

[cubby]

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/1...ats-a-problem/

Great read. I've taken off the 4th. Based on current and data gathering from fivethirtyeight, these are why I took off on November 4th:

13% chance I will begin drinking (I don't drink at all)

87% chance I will spend my day trolling conservative news sites, conservative sub reddits, and conservatives on Facebook and Twitter.

We're planning something similar. Big election night "party" - my 14yo is taking a Freshman Honors American government class (homeschool because COVID) and there couldn't be a better night for a civics lesson.

But then the 4th...yeah, probably taking the day off. Planning for the worst and hoping for the best. I also agree that it would be very bad for any major news organization to call anything for Trump on election night. I'm hoping to find an election night broadcast that is using the pie chart that SHOWS Biden/Trump/Not-Counted.

[PC2]

I still look back at data from the last 30 years to give myself hope that we don't fuck it up like 2016.

Past polling error never has any effect whatsoever on current and future polling error. There's only a few things that can reduce predictive error rates;

1. Polling a larger and larger percentage of the voters.
2. Making sure that nothing new happens in-between the polling date and the official voting date.
3. Reducing various social phenomena such as preference falsification.

Thinking that historical data reduces future uncertainty is magical thinking and if that were true then what we would find is that society always moves in a straight line towards higher and higher levels of certainty as more data is accumulated.

[Rasulis]

The demonization of mailed in ballots in the name of winning an election during time like this is probably one of the most unconscionable that Trump had done. The same with his rallies.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced on Sunday plans to expand the El Paso's hospital capacity using the El Paso Convention and Performing Arts Center, in partnership with the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM).

Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Saturday requested to use a medical center at Fort Bliss for non-COVID-19 patients as coronavirus cases surge in the El Paso area.

Florida is on the verge of a COVID-19 resurgence

[D Luniz]

Quick Electoral College question

If a red state like say Texas voted more for Biden, is it possible since the Gov and the state congress is republican controlled for them to just suddenly decide "Remember how you wanted to do proportional EC splits, well we're all for that now, right now!!"

Or is the ability to change to that gone for this cycle

[Rasulis]

Quick Electoral College question

If a red state like say Texas voted more for Biden, is it possible since the Gov and the state congress is republican controlled for them to just suddenly decide "Remember how you wanted to do proportional EC splits, well we're all for that now, right now!!"

Or is the ability to change to that gone for this cycle

Gone for this cycle.

[Kallisto]

The demonization of mailed in ballots in the name of winning an election during time like this is probably one of the most unconscionable that Trump had done. The same with his rallies.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced on Sunday plans to expand the El Paso's hospital capacity using the El Paso Convention and Performing Arts Center, in partnership with the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM).

Speaking of demonizing mail in ballots.

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/...04112420212739

Huckleberry just either made a very bad joke to demonize mail-in ballots OR has admitted to election fraud

[cubby]

Gone for this cycle.

But if the Republicans do that, if they are forced to that with Texas, then the death of the Electoral College is close.

[Jastall]

Hidden Common Ground: We found that Americans are more united than it appears

Across partisan lines, for example, majorities of Americans support many measures to increase economic opportunity, security and fairness. These include infrastructure investments, retraining programs, affordable child care and incentives for businesses to keep jobs in the United States.

We found as well a strengthening consensus that we ought to raise the minimum wage: While we reported in February that 66% of Americans favored this move, our September report shows that support rising to 72%, mostly because Republican support increased from 48% in the earlier survey to 62% in the more recent one.

The search for agreement not only helps mark a path that Americans are ready to walk to address tough issues, it also illuminates those areas of authentic (as opposed to ginned up) disagreement that we need to navigate and work through to make deeper progress.

In our view, the nation will be much better able to deal with our true disagreements if we are not constantly and falsely being told we are deeply polarized on just about everything, with the most extreme voices put forth to “prove” the case.
----

That last point has become such an unfunny punchline.

That's not surprising. The vast majority of the budget (which is the meat and potatoes of all American spendings and thus policies) is bipartisan. Contentious issues, such as guns, LGBT rights, and immigration get a ton of press, but by and large loads of Americans agree on most things.

It's also why the Democrats don't veer too far to the left. History has shown that "socialist" policies, no matter how potentially beneficial, just aren't popular enough to win the White House, Senate AND House, thus the Dems have to push cobbled together alternatives that get mass acceptation eventually, such as the ACA which is still viewed as extremist by the opposition and gets partially destroyed peacemeal by subsequent administrations and courts.

[cubby]

Speaking of demonizing mail in ballots.

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/...04112420212739

Huckleberry just either made a very bad joke to demonize mail-in ballots OR has admitted to election fraud

That's the GOP - committing crimes until caught, then "joking" until sentenced. Lock them up?

[omerome]

Speaking of demonizing mail in ballots.

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/...04112420212739

Huckleberry just either made a very bad joke to demonize mail-in ballots OR has admitted to election fraud

I just reported that clown. He's disgusting and example #23834034023984 of why the GOP are the worst comedians ever.

[fwc577]

Past polling error never has any effect whatsoever on current and future polling error. There's only a few things that can reduce predictive error rates;

1. Polling a larger and larger percentage of the voters.
2. Making sure that nothing new happens in-between the polling date and the official voting date.
3. Reducing various social phenomena such as preference falsification.

Thinking that historical data reduces future uncertainty is magical thinking and if that were true then what we would find is that society always moves in a straight line towards higher and higher levels of certainty as more data is accumulated.

I'm not talking only polling data. I'm talking all data which includes things like voter turnout and situational data like, when a Republican is in the white house, how much does Democrat turnout increase or what kind of increase in voter turnout does an incumbent voter typically receive. There are tons of data points we can look at and every single one points to a high likelihood of a Trump loss.

Thinking that historical data reduces future uncertainty is magical thinking and if that were true then what we would find is that society always moves in a straight line towards higher and higher levels of certainty as more data is accumulated.

Oh yeah, I'm looking forward to Biden victories in Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Idaho, North Dakota, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, and South Dakota this year! After all, historical data reducing future uncertainty is magical thinking, so Biden clearly has a shot in those states! /s

[beanman12345]

But if the Republicans do that, if they are forced to that with Texas, then the death of the Electoral College is close.

Maybe. Or they go the route of nebraska/maine, which, if the entire country did that, dems might never hold the presidency again.

[cubby]

Maybe. Or they go the route of nebraska/maine, which, if the entire country did that, dems might never hold the presidency again.

I'm not sure what you mean. If TX went the way of NE/ME the Democrats would get more EC votes. Perhaps I'm not understanding what you mean.

[beanman12345]

I'm not sure what you mean. If TX went the way of NE/ME the Democrats would get more EC votes. Perhaps I'm not understanding what you mean.

If TX only yes dem's would get more EC votes, but if every state did that, Dem's would get much less.

Though thankfully I don't see solid blue states like NY/Illinois/California ever ever going that route, so just hypothetical.

[PhaelixWW]

But if the Republicans do that, if they are forced to that with Texas, then the death of the Electoral College is close.

Yeah, in that (admittedly impossible) scenario, Biden would get 21 EVs and Trump would get 17 EVs, which would still be a death knell for Trump's campaign, and likely any GoP candidate forever.

[cubby]

If TX only yes dem's would get more EC votes, but if every state did that, Dem's would get much less.

Though thankfully I don't see solid blue states like NY/Illinois/California ever ever going that route, so just hypothetical.

If every state did it the EC would effectively become a popular vote...unless I'm still misunderstanding what you're getting at.

I'm looking forward to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact being passed.