Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[kaelleria]

More evidence 2020 is nothing like 2016...

Generic Ballot polls show democrats +8.3 in the 538 average.

By this time in 2016 it was only +3.5 D down from a high of +5.9 D in the summer.

[cubby]

https://trac.syr.edu/tracreports/crim/629/






Trump had better hope Q-anon nutters don't find out that he's letting child sex traffickers off the hook and reducing the rates of prosecution that were going up under Obama.

Donald Trump apparently doesn't care much about child sex trafficking.

He can't prosecute his child-rapist peers now, can he? Where would he get the hundreds of millions in campaign contributions to embezzle?

[Edge-]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fbi-si...-terror-threat

The FBI has failed to produce a legally required report detailing the scope of white supremacist and other domestic terrorism, despite mounting concerns that the upcoming election could spark far-right violence.

According to a key House committee chairman, that leaves the country in the dark about what the FBI concedes is America’s most urgent terrorist threat, as well as the resources the U.S. government is devoting to fight it.

In June, the bureau was supposed to release a report compiling a wealth of currently unavailable data on domestic terrorism, a category that includes white supremacist violence. The most recent National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) requires the FBI, in accord with Department of Homeland Security and consultation with the Office of Director of National Intelligence, specify not only known acts of domestic terrorism, but “ideologies relating to domestic terrorism,” and what the FBI and its partners are doing to combat it all.

Yet the FBI is over four months late. While President Trump falsely portrays left-wing property damage as terrorism, suspicion is building that the FBI, whose director Christopher Wray is on the outs with Trump, will keep the public from seeing the scope of its premier terror threat before an election that may feature violence emerging from it.

“I would hate to think that they are reacting to President Trump’s machinations about his dislike for senior leadership in the FBI,” Rep. Bennie Thompson, the Mississippi Democrat who chairs the House Homeland Security Committee, told The Daily Beast. “This report probably would not be viewed favorably by this administration. That, I think, precipitates the report not being released by Nov. 3.”

The public, Thompson continued, “needs to know who the real, documented terrorists in this country, based on the FBI’s intelligence, really are. … I think [Wray] understands that if he wades too far in the water around this subject, he might drown, or get fired, to be honest.”

The FBI did not deny that the report will not be in time for the election.

“The report referenced is a joint product in coordination with ODNI and DHS. NDAA language breaks the report into two parts. Due to limitations caused by COVID-19, Part 1 of the report is in the interagency review process. Part 2 is still being drafted. The FBI is committed to continuing with ODNI and DHS on the report and meeting NDAA requirements,” an FBI official said in a statement to The Daily Beast.

The domestic terrorism report mandated by the NDAA—thanks to Reps. Thompson, Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Andre Carson (D-IN )—is supposed to include everything from how many agents and intelligence analysts the FBI and DHS assign to domestic terror; to a tally of violent incidents stretching back to 2009; to “the rankings of domestic terrorism in relations to other threats” in each of the FBI’s 56 field offices. It’s also supposed to detail “the necessity of changing authorities, roles, resources or responsibilities within the Federal Government to more effectively prevent and counter domestic terrorism activities.”

Its entire purpose is to fill a critical knowledge gap—“to understand prevalence,” particularly of white supremacist violence, said Elizabeth Neumann, who from March 2018 to April 2020 was the assistant secretary for counterterrorism at DHS. “How big a problem do we have? We can’t answer that in the United States.”

FBI is withholding a legally mandated report because it is likely to show the dangers of right wing domestic terrorism and extremism in the US leading into the election. This report is important so that states can be prepared to respond to these domestic terror risks and in keeping Congress informed so they can providing funding to the states that need assistance in handling it.

Again, I keep thinking back to the 2009 report on the rise and risks of right wing domestic terrorism that Republicans and conservatives were oh so offended by. Because it remains an accurate prediction of the threats we're seeing carried out and/or foiled from right wing extremists today. Murders, assassinations, attempts to start a race/civil war, kidnapping and murder plots, domestic terror plots, bomb threats etc. etc. etc.

[cubby]

More evidence 2020 is nothing like 2016...

Generic Ballot polls show democrats +8.3 in the 538 average.

By this time in 2016 it was only +3.5 D down from a high of +5.9 D in the summer.

Annnnnd, Hillary's numbers were plummeting at this point in 2016 whereas Biden's are either holding steady, or going up.

[kaelleria]

Annnnnd, Hillary's numbers were plummeting at this point in 2016 whereas Biden's are either holding steady, or going up.

Right; and that's keeping in the ridiculous conservative polls that have Trump winning 25% of registered Democrats.

Take those out and Biden's lead has actually expanded 1.5% in the 538 average and even more than that in the rcp average.

[Thepersona]

Heads up, these guys are rebranding themselves as InCons now ...

I mean, if the slipper fits.

Hey, we won here in our refferendum on the new constitution. We kicked the Pinochet proverbial ass to the skies. Wanna make it a 4-0 loss for the fascists?

[Edge-]

"And he gets up, and then they say, 'Oh, he's so rhetorically good,'" the president continued. "I never thought he was a good speaker, personally, I really never did. Then, they say, 'He's so handsome. He's so handsome.' Oh, OK. Alright.'"


In the home stretch, Trump is making his strongest pitch he can: Media are mean because they say Obama can string together a coherent sentence. Oh, and apparently they called him handsome and that's bad or something.

Policy? Who fuckin needs it.
A vision for the future? Who gives a shit.
A record he can run on? Not really.
Complaining he, the POTUS, remains the ultimate victim in all things? Awwww yis.

[Felya]

My ad hominem attacks? You maligned me as some troll account. Then you get on your high horse because this site was built in 2000, and ability to be mobile friendly is on par with AOL Dial up.

It was a fair assumption if you have your head up your own rear end to get a fresh smell of your own farts. It actually perfectly showed you have no clue WHAT THE HELL YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT*. I hardly said a word today, but I must live in your mind as you think you're posting. Grow the hell up.

Can you fucking stop attacking people? We are about a week from the election, there must be something better to discuss than other posters.

[kaelleria]

Can you fucking stop attacking people? We are about a week from the election, there must be something better to discuss than other posters.

Just ignore the MaryAnne Williamson supporter and move on.

I wonder if they donated to the Orb Mistress when she asked for money last week to wipe out her campaign debt.

[Zan15]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

Rasmussen in 2016 had Hillary getting over 300 in EC and winning in their popular poll.


Also not sure how in just two polls they go from +12 biden to +1 trump.
They are already a joke, now they just got stupid.

Odd too they all of a sudden dropped from 2500 LV to 1500 Lv. ghmmmm??



hey you got a link to their methodology?

[Felya]

Just ignore the MaryAnne Williamson supporter and move on.

I wonder if they donated to the Orb Mistress when she asked for money last week to wipe out her campaign debt.

I don’t know... I just watched a 30 min video from left tube talking about cancel culture, and am frankly tiered of social media posters being treated like they are on the same level as president. This punching down bullshit is infuriating.

[Edge-]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...calls-received

A New Mexico state senator said he fled his house after receiving anonymous threatening telephone messages following his criticism of a protest outside the state Capitol against coronavirus restrictions.

State Sen. Jacob Candelaria said Sunday that he received the series of profanity-laced telephone telephone messages after he issued the criticism Saturday night in a TV appearance.

A male caller accused the Democratic senator from Albuquerque of not knowing what it means to be an American and said that “we’re going to get you out one way or another," Candelaria said.

Another message included homophobic slurs against the openly gay legislator and attorney, the lawmaker said

Candelaria had said that the protest of several hundred demonstrators near the Statehouse was risky and irresponsible.

The protesters urged Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham to reopen the state's economy and denounce pandemic restrictions. Many waved presidential campaign flags supporting President Donald Trump.

New Mexico health officials have banned gatherings of more than five people and mandated masks in public, with a variety of restrictions on businesses, amid a series of record-setting statewide daily tallies for confirmed COVID-19 infections in recent days.

Candelaria said he left his home in Albuquerque with his husband and that they are staying outside of the city in New Mexico. The lawmaker claimed the response to the messages he received from local and state law enforcement authorities was inadequate in light of credible recent threats made against politicians such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

He also expressed concern that he could become the target of intimidation or violence as a gay, Latino person.

Candelaria said he grew more alarmed after tracing one phone number to a man with an outstanding warrant for arrest, with help from a private investigator.

Right wing terrorist snowflakes bristle at criticism from a State Senator in NM, unleash racist and homophobic threats against him forcing him to flee his home with his husband out of concern for their safety.

Reminder, right wing terrorists were just foiled plotting to kidnap the governor of Michigan, and discussed kidnapping the governor of West Virginia.

I'm increasingly warming up to capitol punishment, because we need to stop Y'all Queda from gaining more of a foothold in the USA.

[Felya]

He attacked me if you cared to look up why I posted. How about instead of constantly jumping in the middle of a discussion to add some version of your views without knowing the context. You could I odn't know, read about how he called out my name in a adolescent way and that is why I am so hostile to him. Instead defend what you see as an ally, and just keep drinking the kool-aid.

I don’t care... You said you are voting Biden... according to you, we are all mindless drones supporting neoliberals, so what the fuck does it mater what I say? No mater the arguments we or anyone else has with you, we are all voting Biden, so we are all inherently a tribe of drones. This disagreement is a figment of your imagination...

[kaelleria]

I don’t know... I just watched a 30 min video from left tube talking about cancel culture, and am frankly tiered of social media posters being treated like they are on the same level as president. This punching down bullshit is infuriating.

Biden winning will destroy basically everything the political grifter class has been working for since 2015... It's basically nulls out their arguments.

[Donatello Trumpi]

You and I have had our share of differences, but we've always been on the same side of the equation. Faithless posters like @Donatello Trumpi aren't worth responding to, except perhaps for practice against literate adversaries. You're never going to get a "you're right", although it is nice to see him eat his own words.

I say this of course and I don't follow my own advice....

You don't want my attention, yet you @ me?

Oh this girlfriend...

[kaelleria]

If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...43000575152131

We're basically at the point right now where we'd need an outsized polling error or fuckery for a Trump win.
I don't think we're going to see outsized polling errors this time because the district level sampling backs up the broader polling narrative, which it didn't in 2016.

Election fuckery could still happen, so be wary.

[Edge-]

Even before the U.S. economy was slammed by a pandemic, the typical American household’s income grew at a slower pace in more than half of the states under Donald Trump than in the years leading up to his presidency, according to a new Capital & Main analysis of U.S. Census data.

Those states include several key battlegrounds, undercutting one of Trump’s central campaign themes: that before COVID-19 his actions led to an economy he has described as "the best it has ever been.”

Pennsylvania saw its typical household’s income growth slow from 6.2% in Obama’s last three years to 4.7% in Trump’s first three years, while median household income growth in Wisconsin declined from 7.1% to 6%.

In New Hampshire typical household income growth slowed from 7.2% between 2013 and 2016 to 3.1% from 2016 to 2019, while in Iowa it slowed from 4.5% to 3%.

Nationally, median family income growth in Trump’s first three years was almost identical to the rate of growth in the three years prior to his presidency, according to one of the two main Census surveys. A second Census survey shows that median household income growth actually slowed in Trump’s first three years to 2.1% annually compared with 2.6% annually during Obama’s last three years.

Defenders of the president point to other indicators such as family income, which does not include households with single people and unrelated people living together. Family income, they point out, grew faster in Trump’s first three years than in the years before he took office.

Measured by median household income, however, 26 states saw slower growth under Trump even before the pandemic – including in half of the 2020 battleground states identified by The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes campaigns and elections. They include Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio, along with Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In addition, two states with battleground districts, Maine and Nebraska, saw median household income growth slow in real terms.

TLDR - Economic growth under Obama, even ignoring 2020 and the impact of covid, was better than under Trump, even after the Trump/Republican tax cut.

It's still not all about the economy, because Republicans can't deliver a good economy. They can only kill a good economy, which we've seen under Bush Jr. and now under Trump.

Good job, Republicans!

[Felya]

You don't want my attention, yet you @ me?

Oh this girlfriend...

Speaking of girlfriends:

Justice Department asks to defend Trump in rape accuser E. Jean Carroll's defamation lawsuit
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...mp/5755850002/

The filing complicates, at least for the moment, Carroll’s efforts to get a DNA sample from the president as potential evidence and to have him answer questions under oath.

After New York state courts turned down Trump’s request to delay E. Jean Carroll’s suit, Justice Department lawyers filed court papers aiming to shift the case into federal court and to substitute the U.S. for Trump as the defendant. That means the federal government, rather than Trump himself, might have to pay damages if any are awarded.

I think this is the tax payer being cucked? Since Trump does the raping and tax payer pays for it?

[Edge-]

Election fuckery could still happen, so be wary.

Fully expecting a repeat of 2000, especially now that Trump will have packed the court with activist conservative judges.

If we get one, I'm taking to the streets.

[Forogil]

Your first point is a fallacy. Increasing sample size would not lower the MoE unless it is several orders of magnitude higher, i.e. 1,000 to 1,000,000 and even then the confidence interval would be lowered by one percentage point. That's the fundamental basis for statistics and probability.

Eh?

If you increase the sampling size by 1000 your margin of error should decrease by a factor of 31.6, and not just by a percentage point.
Obviously that assumes the sampling is fair, as the systematic bias is not reduced.

This simply is not true.

For pretty much any given sizeable population, a sample size around 1000 reliably gives you 95% confidence in the results, +/- 3%. There's some mild variations based on the actual population, but it's marginal; a population of 30,000 needs exactly 1030 people in the sample to hit this, and 300 million needs 1067.

Increasing that sample size to 2000, for a population like the USA's 250 million voters, and for the same 95% confidence level, the interval is reduced to just +/- 2.19%

As in the post I replied to (included above) I meant increasing it by a factor of 1,000 to 1,000,000 not adding 1,000; so no it doesn't reduce the interval by 1 percentage point - it reduces it by a factor of 31.6 (assuming there is no systematic bias; which is ridiculous).