Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Felya]

He attacked me if you cared to look up why I posted. How about instead of constantly jumping in the middle of a discussion to add some version of your views without knowing the context. You could I odn't know, read about how he called out my name in a adolescent way and that is why I am so hostile to him. Instead defend what you see as an ally, and just keep drinking the kool-aid.

I don’t care... You said you are voting Biden... according to you, we are all mindless drones supporting neoliberals, so what the fuck does it mater what I say? No mater the arguments we or anyone else has with you, we are all voting Biden, so we are all inherently a tribe of drones. This disagreement is a figment of your imagination...

[kaelleria]

I don’t know... I just watched a 30 min video from left tube talking about cancel culture, and am frankly tiered of social media posters being treated like they are on the same level as president. This punching down bullshit is infuriating.

Biden winning will destroy basically everything the political grifter class has been working for since 2015... It's basically nulls out their arguments.

[Donatello Trumpi]

You and I have had our share of differences, but we've always been on the same side of the equation. Faithless posters like @Donatello Trumpi aren't worth responding to, except perhaps for practice against literate adversaries. You're never going to get a "you're right", although it is nice to see him eat his own words.

I say this of course and I don't follow my own advice....

You don't want my attention, yet you @ me?

Oh this girlfriend...

[kaelleria]

If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...43000575152131

We're basically at the point right now where we'd need an outsized polling error or fuckery for a Trump win.
I don't think we're going to see outsized polling errors this time because the district level sampling backs up the broader polling narrative, which it didn't in 2016.

Election fuckery could still happen, so be wary.

[Edge-]

Even before the U.S. economy was slammed by a pandemic, the typical American household’s income grew at a slower pace in more than half of the states under Donald Trump than in the years leading up to his presidency, according to a new Capital & Main analysis of U.S. Census data.

Those states include several key battlegrounds, undercutting one of Trump’s central campaign themes: that before COVID-19 his actions led to an economy he has described as "the best it has ever been.”

Pennsylvania saw its typical household’s income growth slow from 6.2% in Obama’s last three years to 4.7% in Trump’s first three years, while median household income growth in Wisconsin declined from 7.1% to 6%.

In New Hampshire typical household income growth slowed from 7.2% between 2013 and 2016 to 3.1% from 2016 to 2019, while in Iowa it slowed from 4.5% to 3%.

Nationally, median family income growth in Trump’s first three years was almost identical to the rate of growth in the three years prior to his presidency, according to one of the two main Census surveys. A second Census survey shows that median household income growth actually slowed in Trump’s first three years to 2.1% annually compared with 2.6% annually during Obama’s last three years.

Defenders of the president point to other indicators such as family income, which does not include households with single people and unrelated people living together. Family income, they point out, grew faster in Trump’s first three years than in the years before he took office.

Measured by median household income, however, 26 states saw slower growth under Trump even before the pandemic – including in half of the 2020 battleground states identified by The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes campaigns and elections. They include Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio, along with Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In addition, two states with battleground districts, Maine and Nebraska, saw median household income growth slow in real terms.

TLDR - Economic growth under Obama, even ignoring 2020 and the impact of covid, was better than under Trump, even after the Trump/Republican tax cut.

It's still not all about the economy, because Republicans can't deliver a good economy. They can only kill a good economy, which we've seen under Bush Jr. and now under Trump.

Good job, Republicans!

[Felya]

You don't want my attention, yet you @ me?

Oh this girlfriend...

Speaking of girlfriends:

Justice Department asks to defend Trump in rape accuser E. Jean Carroll's defamation lawsuit
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...mp/5755850002/

The filing complicates, at least for the moment, Carroll’s efforts to get a DNA sample from the president as potential evidence and to have him answer questions under oath.

After New York state courts turned down Trump’s request to delay E. Jean Carroll’s suit, Justice Department lawyers filed court papers aiming to shift the case into federal court and to substitute the U.S. for Trump as the defendant. That means the federal government, rather than Trump himself, might have to pay damages if any are awarded.

I think this is the tax payer being cucked? Since Trump does the raping and tax payer pays for it?

[Edge-]

Election fuckery could still happen, so be wary.

Fully expecting a repeat of 2000, especially now that Trump will have packed the court with activist conservative judges.

If we get one, I'm taking to the streets.

[Forogil]

Your first point is a fallacy. Increasing sample size would not lower the MoE unless it is several orders of magnitude higher, i.e. 1,000 to 1,000,000 and even then the confidence interval would be lowered by one percentage point. That's the fundamental basis for statistics and probability.

Eh?

If you increase the sampling size by 1000 your margin of error should decrease by a factor of 31.6, and not just by a percentage point.
Obviously that assumes the sampling is fair, as the systematic bias is not reduced.

This simply is not true.

For pretty much any given sizeable population, a sample size around 1000 reliably gives you 95% confidence in the results, +/- 3%. There's some mild variations based on the actual population, but it's marginal; a population of 30,000 needs exactly 1030 people in the sample to hit this, and 300 million needs 1067.

Increasing that sample size to 2000, for a population like the USA's 250 million voters, and for the same 95% confidence level, the interval is reduced to just +/- 2.19%

As in the post I replied to (included above) I meant increasing it by a factor of 1,000 to 1,000,000 not adding 1,000; so no it doesn't reduce the interval by 1 percentage point - it reduces it by a factor of 31.6 (assuming there is no systematic bias; which is ridiculous).

[Nurasu]

TLDR - Economic growth under Obama, even ignoring 2020 and the impact of covid, was better than under Trump, even after the Trump/Republican tax cut.

It's still not all about the economy, because Republicans can't deliver a good economy. They can only kill a good economy, which we've seen under Bush Jr. and now under Trump.

Good job, Republicans!

I love this article. Even Trump's most ardent supporters are getting nailed by his economy. They did well in spite of him, yet still thank him and ask for more.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...mp-nationalism

But Idaho's No. 1 employer was caught in the crosshairs of his trade wars, especially with China, when Trump signed an executive order in 2018 prohibiting Huawei, the telecommunication giant, from selling its products and services in the U.S. The Commerce Department subsequently banned U.S. companies from working with Huawei. The Chinese company was among Micron’s largest customers, buying more than 10% of the chip maker’s products.

The disruption illustrated the extent to which Idaho has become a top-ranked state for global trade. Since 2016, when imports to the U.S. increased 9.2%, Arizona, Utah and Idaho imports climbed 35%, 18% and 14%, respectively. Utah’s and Arizona’s exports led the nation during the same period, rising 44% and 12%. Idaho exports fell 30%, however, and Micron's revenue plummeted 23% in 2019 and declined 8% this year.

[kaelleria]

Fully expecting a repeat of 2000, especially now that Trump will have packed the court with activist conservative judges.

If we get one, I'm taking to the streets.

It needs to be close enough (under 1% in swing states) for that to matter.

At the moment we're not looking at a close election. This could change, but there's no evidence that it will.

I'm pretty sure we'd see dissolution of the US if it does happen though.

[fwc577]

We have a Mooch-3 left until the election. Anyone else as fucking excited as me?!

I can see the headlines:

TRUMP, YOU'RE FIRED!

I really look forward to getting one of those framed for my wall because I'm in my 30s so I wasn't around the last time America defeated the fascist fucks!

[beanman12345]

Trump hides in the bunker from some protestors, claims he's a war time president during covid taking no action and then only to wave the white flag, but retards think he's gonna successfully lead them in a civil war fantasy, jeez.

[fwc577]

Trump hides in the bunker from some protestors, claims he's a war time president during covid taking no action and then only to wave the white flag, but retards think he's gonna successfully lead them in a civil war fantasy, jeez.

While riding a flying raptor who is riding a skateboard with a jet engine while Trump is holding the blade of an Archangel.

[Donatello Trumpi]

If we get one, I'm taking to the streets.

Rise up, latte nation?
Kpop-stans rebellion?
Jigglypuff's war march?

[Edge-]

Rise up, latte nation?
Kpop-stans rebellion?
Jigglypuff's war march?

Naw, we're those terrifying "antifa" terrorists. Hide yo wife, hide yo kids.

Or are antifa back to being the think y'all laugh about and not a big deal, since you don't need them as a bogeyman anymore.

[kaid]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...43000575152131

We're basically at the point right now where we'd need an outsized polling error or fuckery for a Trump win.
I don't think we're going to see outsized polling errors this time because the district level sampling backs up the broader polling narrative, which it didn't in 2016.

Election fuckery could still happen, so be wary.

Just go out and vote like somebodies life depends on it.

[cubby]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...calls-received

Right wing terrorist snowflakes bristle at criticism from a State Senator in NM, unleash racist and homophobic threats against him forcing him to flee his home with his husband out of concern for their safety.

Reminder, right wing terrorists were just foiled plotting to kidnap the governor of Michigan, and discussed kidnapping the governor of West Virginia.

I'm increasingly warming up to capitol punishment, because we need to stop Y'all Queda from gaining more of a foothold in the USA.

This. THIS. Needs to be the new name for White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism.

And the story and events are just horrifying. The FBI and NM State Police had better already be setting up a Command Center to investigate and fully prosecute.

[Donatello Trumpi]

Naw, we're those terrifying "antifa" terrorists. Hide yo wife, hide yo kids.

Or are antifa back to being the think y'all laugh about and not a big deal, since you don't need them as a bogeyman anymore.

Back? Democrats dropped talking about them the moment they hurt their polls. Thats why you don't hear about them anymore from your sources.

[Poopymonster]

I think choosing which Trump family member is less slimey is like choosing between who was more genocidal, Hitler, Stalin or Mao.

I've heard it referred to as "Pick up the turd by the clean end."

[alexw]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...calls-received



Right wing terrorist snowflakes bristle at criticism from a State Senator in NM, unleash racist and homophobic threats against him forcing him to flee his home with his husband out of concern for their safety.

Reminder, right wing terrorists were just foiled plotting to kidnap the governor of Michigan, and discussed kidnapping the governor of West Virginia.

I'm increasingly warming up to capitol punishment, because we need to stop Y'all Queda from gaining more of a foothold in the USA.

You missed their Ohio kidnap plot.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ohio...0-10?r=US&IR=T