Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[PhaelixWW]

Biden is up by 10 points in Minnesota.

Something tells me Trump is bad at strategy.

Well, first of all, the strategy is unlikely to be Trump's, which should be unsurprising, because it's actually good strategy; it just reeks of desperation.

See, when your resources are limited, you don't spend them on the close states if winning only those close states mean you still lose the overall election. Trump is at that desperation moment where he has to hope that all the close states fall his way, and move his attention to states that are a bit further from close, hoping to push them close enough that they might similarly fall his way.

If you assume that the polls are off in this election by the same margin as in 2016, the states that are most worth pushing in are PA, MN, and AZ, while hoping that the rest comes out his way.



This is just a hail mary.

[DingDongKing]

Well, first of all, the strategy is unlikely to be Trump's, which should be unsurprising, because it's actually good strategy; it just reeks of desperation.

See, when your resources are limited, you don't spend them on the close states if winning only those close states mean you still lose the overall election. Trump is at that desperation moment where he has to hope that all the close states fall his way, and move his attention to states that are a bit further from close, hoping to push them close enough that they might similarly fall his way.

If you assume that the polls are off in this election by the same margin as in 2016, the states that are most worth pushing in are PA, MN, and AZ, while hoping that the rest comes out his way.



This is just a hail mary.

If the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, then the entire system is flawed and needs rebuilding.

[Waniou]

Well, first of all, the strategy is unlikely to be Trump's, which should be unsurprising, because it's actually good strategy; it just reeks of desperation.

See, when your resources are limited, you don't spend them on the close states if winning only those close states mean you still lose the overall election. Trump is at that desperation moment where he has to hope that all the close states fall his way, and move his attention to states that are a bit further from close, hoping to push them close enough that they might similarly fall his way.

If you assume that the polls are off in this election by the same margin as in 2016, the states that are most worth pushing in are PA, MN, and AZ, while hoping that the rest comes out his way.

-img-

This is just a hail mary.

I feel like this could potentially backfire though. If he's going to a state where he's unpopular, going there could rile up more people against him if he's poorly received.

[Felya]

If the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, then the entire system is flawed and needs rebuilding.

If you look at 2012, it’s pretty obvious polling over compensated in favor of dems, due to being wrong in 2012.

[kaelleria]

The difference between 2016 and this year is that district level polling and state polls aren't in disagreement...

If anything we're more likely to see an error going in Democrats favor.

[Breccia]

Is everyone ready for a massive workers strike if that happens?

Is Trump? If he loses, refuses to leave, and the US govt goes on strike, that's not just a Trump Shutdown, that's insult to injury there.

[PhaelixWW]

If the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, then the entire system is flawed and needs rebuilding.

Yeah, I mean, I think most reasonable people believe that the polls are legitimate. It's just the fear of another 2016 that's leading people to be more tentative. I imagine there will be an enormous sigh of relief amongst the pollsters and analysts after the election when their job goes back to normal, without the specter of the 2016 elections dogging them.

[Breccia]

If anything we're more likely to see an error going in Democrats favor.

I mean, I'm expecting heavy GOP in-person election day turnout.

I'll expect it from home, having already voted, and the lines won't be my problem.

[PhaelixWW]

I feel like this could potentially backfire though. If he's going to a state where he's unpopular, going there could rile up more people against him if he's poorly received.

It's literally his only play though. Hail mary passes in football backfire all the time, too; doesn't mean they're not occasionally necessary.

[Waniou]

It's literally his only play though. Hail mary passes in football backfire all the time, too; doesn't mean they're not occasionally necessary.

Well that and trying to rig the election.

[PhaelixWW]

If you look at 2012, it’s pretty obvious polling over compensated in favor of dems, due to being wrong in 2012.

Wait, what? The chart shows that the polling was under-compensating for the Democrats in 2012...

[kaelleria]

I mean, I'm expecting heavy GOP in-person election day turnout.

I'll expect it from home, having already voted, and the lines won't be my problem.

Oh for sure, but I'm not talking about EV or mail in ballots. Those historically don't mean much.

[PhaelixWW]

Well that and trying to rig the election.

Right, I forgot, it's 2020.

[kaelleria]

Blah it looks like they're not even going to start counting mail in ballots in PA until election day :/

[Breccia]

It's literally his only play though. Hail mary passes in football backfire all the time, too; doesn't mean they're not occasionally necessary.

It's not his only play. It's his only play remaining.

Trump had plenty of options, including "do a decent job so people want to vote for you". But he's always loved the rallies. He wants to get out there, make insane promises like curing cancer and ending the national debt, and have a partial crowd chant his name to fill the hole a father's love is supposed to occupy.

Then he allowed a lethal pandemic. It took him out of action, and it slapped Pence's team across the face, too. More importantly, it heavily restricted the venues he could have. Oh, and of course it killed the economy and jobs and enough people to fill the top give rallies Trump ever threw combined.

Meanwhile, Trump also threw enough blatant lies on FB and Twitter that those are getting removed or qualified, FB is shutting down political ads, so his online approach is limping.

Then Trump attacked pretty much every media source in the USA, including FOX News for airing an Obama speech. No, really, it was a few hours ago.

He skipped a debate on purpose, had one with himself instead, and lost.

He has no surrogates left except Pence and his family. Show of hands, who here would go to a rally where Tiffany is the headliner?

(crickets chirping)

Yeah.

And he blew so much of his money so early that now Biden can spend circles around him.

Trump had options. Past tense. It's his own fault he doesn't have many left. If he had running backs worth a damn, if he could hit his receivers in the numbers, if his front five could stop the blitz, if his kicker and backup kicker weren't both sidelined with injuries, and if his coach wasn't chugging bleach, maybe he wouldn't be down three touchdowns with five minutes left to play. But that's the team he fielded.

[Zaydin]

Blah it looks like they're not even going to start counting mail in ballots in PA until election day :/

There was an effort to get a bill passed that would have started counting mail-in ballots three days before election day in PA to my knowledge, but it went nowhere because Republicans stuffed it full of poison pills like banning ballot drop boxes and allowing out of county "poll watchers".

[Hinastorm]

The average human and most humans in general don’t want to die or have the capacity to kill someone.

Especially when that someone is someone you possibly have known your whole life.

I didn't say a violent revolution.

But i'm not against it for economic issues that have gone way past the breaking point.

- - - Updated - - -

Wasn't that the point of Occupy Wall Street?

I suppose, but i'm advocating for a much grander scale than that. Also, I don't think the Occupy protests had anything to do with housing costs.

[PhaelixWW]

It's not his only play. It's his only play remaining.

I mean, that's pretty much what "it's his only play" generally implies, lol.

He skipped a debate on purpose, had one with himself instead, and lost.

This will forever be one of the most amusing moments of this entire shitshow.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Why are Kim and Kanye fleeing the country ahead of the election?

After 2 weeks of multiple health screens and asking everyone to quarantine, I surprised my closest inner circle with a trip to a private island where we could pretend things were normal just for a brief moment in time.”

Asking for a friend.

Sorry Ivanka and Jared, no poor people on this island!

[Breccia]

I mean, that's pretty much what "it's his only play" generally implies, lol.

Oh, I was agreeing with you Just adding some context. It's his only play left and that's his fault.