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Protests, looting, and clashes with police in Philadelphia after police shot and killed a man armed with a knife.Originally Posted by Valkyrst
Recent Blue Posts
Recent Forum Posts
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2020-10-28, 11:44 AM #21361Titan
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R.I.P. Democracy
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
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2020-10-28, 11:59 AM #21362Scarab Lord
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So Biden will lose PA cos the cops put 10 rounds in a mental health patient. Cool. Didn't know he was pro-police brutality. Originally Posted by PhaelixWW
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2020-10-28, 12:24 PM #21363Titan
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Looks like it helped push 538's model to 11/89: Originally Posted by beanman12345
R.I.P. Democracy
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
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2020-10-28, 12:52 PM #21364Scarab Lord
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Maybe wrong, but I don't think a singular Wisconsin poll would do that. Originally Posted by PhaelixWW
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2020-10-28, 01:00 PM #21365Titan
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But it did. 538's aggregate poll data for Wisconsin moved from Biden +7.1 yesterday to Biden +9.0 today. That's plenty enough for a borderline swing state to move the needle from 12/88 to 11/89. Originally Posted by Valkyrst
R.I.P. Democracy
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
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2020-10-28, 01:05 PM #21366Scarab Lord
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Very interesting. What's your thought on Pennsylvania? Would be quite the failure of polling if they call it as wrong as they did in 2016. Originally Posted by PhaelixWW
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2020-10-28, 01:09 PM #21367Titan
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PA is pretty solidly Biden's to lose. And the early voting reports are promising. Originally Posted by Valkyrst
R.I.P. Democracy
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
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2020-10-28, 01:19 PM #21368The Unstoppable Force
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PA will honestly mostly depend on how much the GOP manage to ratfuck the election. Originally Posted by Valkyrst
IIRC they don't start counting mail in ballots until election day, meaning if Republicans sue and win due to court stacking, we could see a lot of Dem ballots thrown out.
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2020-10-28, 01:28 PM #21369Void Lord
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For Trump supporters who claim to be the party of Reagan, how the hell do you think Reagan would vote for Trump? Like, on what alternative reality, is Trump a Reagan conservative?
Reagan would be the one leading Lincoln Project...Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
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2020-10-28, 01:29 PM #21370I am Murloc!
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Nah... the Wisconsin poll is an outlier and is discounted a bit because of that. Originally Posted by PhaelixWW
The change in projection is due to the clock running out.
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2020-10-28, 01:36 PM #21371Void Lord
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October surprise turned out to be what last year was about... Its what Trump got impeached for trying to get Ukraine to do. Without Ukraine they needed to find some way to push Russian propaganda and I guess after watching a few loony toons cartoons, they chose a blind computer repair shop. Originally Posted by kaelleria
Due to Trump’s impeachment, their October surprise had to change asserting bullshit by claiming that’s what Ukraine is investigating... to presenting the same bullshit they found on a computer that no longer exists.
Edit: Saying you can’t reveal details because Ukraine is investigating, is far more convincing than claiming it’s because you lost the source PC. Biden doesn’t have to walk the thin line of calling the story bullshit, without claiming Ukraine is lying... when it’s Giuliani and a blind random, with a disappeared source? Get the fuck out of here with that shit... obviously it got them nothing...
Edit 2: oh and this is the role Wikileaks played in 2016... that’s why Roger Stone got in trouble and Trump bailed him out... Wikileaks was the trusted third party source, Trump could use to push pizzagate and bizarre assertions about emails. Ukraine was supposed to be Wikileaks this round, but all they could get is a blind random to be a patsy.Last edited by Felya; 2020-10-28 at 01:44 PM.
Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
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2020-10-28, 01:37 PM #21372Brewmaster
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Even seniors are turning on Trump.
It turns out telling seniors that you don't give a shit if they die is a bad strategy.
Seniors and women are voting for Biden, and we have record-breaking early voting. It's not looking good for Trump.
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2020-10-28, 01:46 PM #21373Void Lord
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Basically, now that seniors are being exterminated by Trump, while he is defunding Social Security... I don’t think they like his plan to manage the astronomical debt he created, even before covid. Originally Posted by CastletonSnob
Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
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2020-10-28, 02:13 PM #21374The Lightbringer
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We have drive through voting here as well. The cities have come up with work around for the obstructionist GOP. Originally Posted by arandomuser
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2020-10-28, 02:21 PM #21375Immortal
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Polling overall in 2016 was accurate and the overal end result fell within the margin of error. Originally Posted by Valkyrst
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2020-10-28, 02:25 PM #21376I am Murloc!
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The polling in PA was actually pretty bad. It was off by ~5. But signs were there beforehand that the gap in PA was closing. This doesn't seem to be the case this year. Originally Posted by ati87
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2020-10-28, 02:35 PM #21377Epic!
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Were these the polls that were weighted by education? What a horrible model. How about you actually collect representative samples rather than doing post facto and arbitrary weighting? Originally Posted by kaelleria
Urgency to update polling numbers and high costs of proper sampling is probably the cause of this. it feels like pollsters don't understand the timescale of voter decision making because if they did they wouldn't be putting out new poll results every week. Although these dudes offer some insights into how it might be possible to properly use high frequency, nonrepresentative polling:
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/...81315669083-17Last edited by Eviscero; 2020-10-28 at 02:44 PM.
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2020-10-28, 02:37 PM #21378Immortal
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It's actually a really good article and I think most people felt the effect of Comey regardless of who you supported. Originally Posted by postman1782
Also it can't be stressed enough that in 2016 the polls actually showed a close race overall, every time the race got close (based on the pollls) Trump said or did something that caused his numbers to drop up until the end. Then Comey happend and Clinton's numbers dropped.
Now however Biden is kind of a boring candidate to his credit which is why Trump and his goons are making up "scandals" in the hopes of recreating the Comey effect. Problem this time is that it's kind of obvious that there is nothing and the stuff that Trump throws out there is obviously fake.
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2020-10-28, 02:38 PM #21379Brewmaster
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Getting Trump out of office is only the beginning. We also need to get rid of the Congressmen and women who enabled him.
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2020-10-28, 02:38 PM #21380Scarab Lord
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I sincerely doubt anyone in the Delaware Valley is going to switch their vote at the last second because a Police shooting led to a looted Walmart. Beyond the valley, nobody in the state gives a damn about Philadelphia unless it gives them a reason to shit on it. Originally Posted by Thepersona
- Christopher HitchensPopulists (and "national socialists") look at the supposedly secret deals that run the world "behind the scenes". Child's play. Except that childishness is sinister in adults.
