Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[omerome]

Even if TX doesn't go blue, early votes in the metro areas are off the charts and will probably lead to the TX state house having more D than they were expecting.

More D is always a good thing.

[s_bushido]

Even if TX doesn't go blue, early votes in the metro areas are off the charts and will probably lead to the TX state house having more D than they were expecting.

That's good. For the record, I don't really expect TX to vote Biden this go round. Though if it did, it would basically mean he wins as soon as it's confirmed...unless like...literally every other close state went to Trump instead.

[Kaleredar]

What money? I don't think Trump can afford to be in Texas right now.

At the same time, however, I don’t think trump really needs to be in Texas for him to ultimately win it.

The race for Texas will likely be a lot closer than republicans might like, but remember... they are VERY “in the moment” with their policy. If they aren’t being immediately punished or it, they’re not liable to care or think much on it. (It’s why they supported trump all this time, despite the fact that it has lead to a situation where theres a non-zero chance they could lose Texas.)

So long as trump holds texas and, even more so, if he holds the presidency... they aren’t going to learn or introspect jack shit. And while I certainly have high hopes that he’ll be defeated by Biden for the presidency, I’m fairly certain Texas’ entrenched redness will carry trump to victory in Texas itself, despite his apathy towards the state.

[kaid]

Even if TX doesn't go blue, early votes in the metro areas are off the charts and will probably lead to the TX state house having more D than they were expecting.

Basically if we can do to the GOP what they did in 2010 with taking tons of state legislatures that could be super useful. Having a big sweep of local races going into a map redrawing year is massive.

[kaelleria]

I think we'll know very early on election night if Trump is truly well and fucked based on the senior vote in FL.

If he doesn't win Sumter County in FL by more than 2:1 he's done. We'll know this by around 7:15 PM.

[CastletonSnob]

And Trump has canceled his election party.

I think he knows he's gonna lose.

[kaid]

I think we'll know very early on election night if Trump is truly well and fucked based on the senior vote in FL.

If he doesn't win Sumter County in FL by more than 2:1 he's done. We'll know this by around 7:15 PM.

We will know states like FL or TX on election night and if either of those look like they are locked to biden they are going to call it. Otherwise it may take a day or two to really know.

[cubby]

Harris heads to motherfucking Texas.



Look, this still all fits my master strategy which you know I was just guessing and coincidentally the results fit. Still, with just a few days left, and with his NC rally moved (because 50MPH wind and a bad toupee stay together as long as a Trump marriage) Trump probably can't personally go to Texas -- he has other things to worry about. And Pence couldn't stir up enthusiasm with the audience of Ellen and a long-handled spoon. Plus Trump just canceled a bunch of TV ads while Biden's making them in Spanish.

Early voting is breaking records. COVID is wrecking the Lone Star State. Texas metro centers vote blue. Harris is zerging Trump territory. Does he have any defense left? Because if he loses Texas, there is no realistic path to victory.

Seriously, why hasn't Trump dropped everything and headed to Texas? I just checked his campaign schecule, there's nothing in Texas, and HAH HAH two things in Florida but they both star Eric. That's not enough.

Fan-fucking-tastic.

[kaelleria]

We will know states like FL or TX on election night and if either of those look like they are locked to biden they are going to call it. Otherwise it may take a day or two to really know.

Right, I'm just saying that if Trump doesn't crush Biden in Sumter County in FL by at least 30 points, he'll have lost a lot of white senior support as Sumter County has the highest median age in the country. It's also one of the most republican counties in the country with 85% R 15% D party registration. Rick Scott won it in 2018 71% to 29%.

We should have 80% returns from there by around 7-730 PM on election night.

[Draco-Onis]

Basically if we can do to the GOP what they did in 2010 with taking tons of state legislatures that could be super useful. Having a big sweep of local races going into a map redrawing year is massive.

Hopefully democrats on the state level shove it right up the GOP's ass with gerrymandering and whatever trick they can pull to make sure the rats never take power again.

[cubby]

I think Texas will be Trump’s version of Hillary’s 2016 Blue Wall. GOP and internal polling says he has Texas in the bank so why bother?

It would be pretty amazing if TX flipped that way. Especially if Harris is there - no way they send her for no reason.

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The swing states have long been spoiled children, who feel the need for constant attention from candidates. In 2016, people were outraged that Hillary didn't visit their state, when the reality is that the candidates don't visit a lot of the states (unless it's a private fundraising event for rich ass kissers). I personally don't give a damn if a candidate visits my state, because that won't really help them to actually provide policies that would be beneficial. I don't need the attention of some politician, I want them to do their fucking jobs, and don't want them to be shitty humans.

It's really amazing that the election comes down to 3-5 states. The Electoral College is just beyond ridiculous.

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Whilst I don't follow CNN for 'news', their journalists are excellent. Brianna Keilar, Dana Bash, Anderson Cooper. I even like Tapper and Cuomo.

Their reputation as 'shitty' to me seems like pre-2017 residual discord. Since their swing to left, they've actually been very good.

They are actually a very good news channel, @Machismo, they've just been smeared vis a vis Hillary by the conservative idiot culture, in an attempt to "level the field" and make them "the same" as Faux News.

I recall CNN's coverage being VERY good for election night. I really hope they do the "not counted yet" section as well as tally total for Biden/Trump.

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I cannot bring myself to watch MSNBC, I feel dirty every time I see it. Oddly enough, I actually like Maddow, even though she's about as far from me politically, as one can get.

She is worth watching, even if one disagrees with her politics. She is ridiculously bright and brings that to her broadcasts.

[Edge-]

And Trump has canceled his election party.

I think he knows he's gonna lose.

At his hotel. They're looking into doing it at the White House. Because you know, fuck all norms and shit.

[PhaelixWW]

538's election model dips down to 10/89 against Trump.

[Edge-]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000...7-fae72f290000

So...I guess this is the excel tracking sheet HHS used for vetting celebrities for their pointless $300M PR campaign.

There are some gems in there, specifically this note about Ronda Rousey -

r Publicly supported Democratic Party candidate Bernie Sanders for 2016 election. Anti-feminist view at times. Arrested during WWE event in 2019.

The Trump administration is unironically this guy, except they don't have the self awareness to realize that it's not actually real -

[cubby]

Flipping the state would be amazing, but it's not what I expect. I expect this move to intentionally troll Trump and force him to redirect his attention, time, and money from other locations to Texas just so he doesn't lose the state.

He has two choices, both bad.
1) Spend funds, time, and other limited assets, or
2) Do nothing, and hope that the Texas changes to polling locations etc. doesn't work against him.

Trump is a piece of #2 so I expect that to be his choice, but it's very risky. Texas went out of their way to fuck early voting hard. Consequence? Long lines Tuesday. And right now, especially with COVID death rates in Texas effectively leading the nation, Biden supporters are more motivated than Trump supporters. Meaning, if both see a long line, Biden supporters will be more likely to stand in it.

Trump has put himself in a situation where he only has bad choices left. He can and very well should still carry the state, but he either has to work for it, or hope for the best.

I'm betting it has something to do with Texas 2020 early voting surpasses 2016 total voter turnout.

Now I REALLY wonder what their internal polling is saying.

[Kaleredar]

We will know states like FL or TX on election night and if either of those look like they are locked to biden they are going to call it. Otherwise it may take a day or two to really know.

As I’ve said I think Texas will still be a trump victory, even if it’s a lot closer than republicans would like.

As for Florida, I’m very hopeful Biden will take it but Florida’s governor is a major trump sycophant. I fully expect him to attempt to bend over backwards to try and effect a Trump victory, especially if the race is close. And even if that doesn’t end up working out in Trump’s favor, the challenges still might take time to resolve.

[Smash Adams]

It really should scare the shit out of conservatives that Texas is even being discussed as a possibility of flipping. I’d still be absolutely stunned if it happened but it shouldn’t even be a question.

At this point, I’m becoming more and more convinced that the GOP as currently constructed won’t exist in twenty years. Even with four more years of Trump, the message being pushed further right is only going to do more harm.

[cubby]

I think we'll know very early on election night if Trump is truly well and fucked based on the senior vote in FL.

If he doesn't win Sumter County in FL by more than 2:1 he's done. We'll know this by around 7:15 PM.

This - entirely. That statistic that was posted yesterday about Trump winning 65+ by 17 points in 2016 and now Biden is leading that same demographic going into election weekend is fucking insane. Trump losing FL is the ballgame - and IIRC, they count ballots pretty quickly.

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And Trump has canceled his election party.

I think he knows he's gonna lose.

What?!?!?!

[Edge-]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/u...gtype=Homepage

U.S. border authorities have been expelling migrant children from other countries into Mexico, violating a diplomatic agreement with Mexico and testing the limits of immigration and child welfare laws.

The expulsions, laid out in a sharply critical internal email from a senior Border Patrol official, have taken place under an aggressive border closure policy the Trump administration has said is necessary to prevent the coronavirus from spreading into the United States. But they conflict with the terms upon which the Mexican government agreed to help implement the order, which were that only Mexican children and others who had adult supervision could be pushed back into Mexico after attempting to cross the border.

The expulsions put children from countries such as Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador at risk by sending them with no accompanying adult into a country where they have no family connections. Most appear to have been put, at least at first, into the care of Mexican child welfare authorities, who oversee shelters operated by religious organizations and other private groups.

The Trump administration and ICE are racist, hateful, deplorable, disgusting, repugnant, obscene, inhuman monsters.

Not only are is the Trump administration and ICE kidnapping children and losing those kidnapped children, they're also sending them, alone, to another country that doesn't have the resources to care for them and where they have no family or connections. That's psychological trauma that absolutely meets the bar of torture, and all involved should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. And maybe a bit more.

[cubby]

Right, I'm just saying that if Trump doesn't crush Biden in Sumter County in FL by at least 30 points, he'll have lost a lot of white senior support as Sumter County has the highest median age in the country. It's also one of the most republican counties in the country with 85% R 15% D party registration. Rick Scott won it in 2018 71% to 29%.

We should have 80% returns from there by around 7-730 PM on election night.

When we're in the throes of election results coming in, can you keep reminding us of that? Seriously.

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At his hotel. They're looking into doing it at the White House. Because you know, fuck all norms and shit.

Plus, since they are out of money, the People can pay for it.