Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[unfilteredJW]

For any one who actually cares about the truth here.

Looking at your post history, you aren’t.

[kaelleria]

For any one who actually cares about the truth here.

The polls are a) likely to be very inaccurate because they are modelling something which never happened before and b) hardcore trumpers are unlikely to talk to pollsters.

So this means the polls are probably overstating Biden's lead. However, and Republicans seem to miss this, they are still overstating a lead.

Trump will likely lose, but probably not by as much as polls indicate.

Actually... They've found no evidence of a shy Trump vote and have seen evidence of a shy Biden voter.

[Benggaul]

*sigh* This is why I need to stop reading the news for about a week and just distract myself with games and films/shows.

Millions of Mail-in Ballots at Risk in Battleground States

Millions of mail-in ballots haven’t been received by election offices in critical battleground states, where recent slowdowns in mail deliveries risk some votes not arriving in time to count for the presidential election.

As of Oct. 30, more than seven million mailed ballots had not been returned in the 13 most competitive states that require ballots to arrive on or before Election Day, a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project found. That’s about 28% of the more than 24 million ballots that had been tallied in those states, the Elections Project data show.

Many of the states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida, were narrowly won in the 2016 presidential election, in some cases by only a few thousand votes, making the outstanding ballots potentially critical to figuring a winner this time around.

Mail delays won’t help the situation: So far this week, first-class mail times have slowed from the week before in 12 of the 13 competitive states with tight deadlines, according to data from mail-tracking firm GrayHair Software.

This has been my number one concern for months now and even though I personally know some people in the system who are working to combat this I also know they're up against a mountain of backlog thanks to DeJoy. I really, really have to hope that the people whose ballots are still stuck in the mail are tracking them and planning to show up in person if their ballots don't make it by election day so they can vote provisionally.

[starsist]

Actually... They've found no evidence of a shy Trump vote and have seen evidence of a shy Biden voter.

Hardcore Trump voters aren't "shy", they distrust the pollsters as evidence of the satanic paedophile aiien lizard conspiracy or whatever. Shy voters deceive pollsters as to their true intentions to make themselves look better, these people won't even talk to them. Try and make an adjustment for that in the polls.

You wouldn't expect pollsters to be able to find evidence of something that doesn't show up in polls, in polls, but they clearly exist given the popularity of qanon on the web.

[kaelleria]

Hardcore Trump voters aren't "shy", they distrust the pollsters as evidence of the satanic paedophile aiien lizard conspiracy or whatever. Shy voters deceive pollsters as to their true intentions to make themselves look better, these people won't even talk to them. Try and make an adjustment for that in the polls.

You wouldn't expect pollsters to be able to find evidence of something that doesn't show up in polls, in polls, but they clearly exist given the popularity of qanon on the web.

[starsist]

[IMG

Wow, you must be intelligent, a meme. I can just imagine the spittle dripping onto your computer as you laugh at your own cleverness.

Obviously those 20 years I spent studying election polling and betting patterns are trumped by your...er..."cutting edge" pop culture reference.

[alexw]

Yeah, I'm not sure why these people keep showing a forecast from mid-October as some sort of proof.

I just pulled up FiveThirtyEight and on election day, they gave Hillary a 71% chance of winning and Trump a 29% chance of winning.

They also showed Hillary having a slight advantage in a lot of states she lost because Trump ran the table on those states.

The final vote was 306 Trump to 232 Clinton.

In the post-election analysis, (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...=2016-forecast) they looked at how it would've looked if 1 in 100 voters had shifted toward Clinton and the final EV vote total would've been Clinton 307 to Trump 231.

The margins were VERY slim.

What is it with Trumpahidi's being bad faith disingenuous posters?

Its like not a single one of them has a shred of decency or any respect for the truth.

They all do the same, post bullshit, post lies, attempt to mislead, lie endlessly, and all round show exactly what horrible sorts of people they are.

Then again if they weren't that they would not be voting for Trump.

[Thepersona]

Yeah, I miss @Skroe too.

I hope that if Biden wins, mods release @Skroe and @GennGreymane from their prisons. Just for the lulz.

- - - Updated - - -

For any one who actually cares about the truth here.

The polls are a) likely to be very inaccurate because they are modelling something which never happened before and b) hardcore trumpers are unlikely to talk to pollsters.

So this means the polls are probably overstating Biden's lead. However, and Republicans seem to miss this, they are still overstating a lead.

Trump will likely lose, but probably not by as much as polls indicate.

For all other lurkers, the shy trump voter is a myth.
They are not shy.

[eschatological]

Texas rallies for Biden/Harris canceled because.....


...a bunch of Trump supporters were waiting on the side of the highway, armed, surrounded the Harris bus/various staff cars, and in one case bumped into a staff car. Outnumbered the cops 50 to 1, not that it mattered because..

...one of the campaign volunteers tried to call one of the police escorts over, and he said it wasn't his jurisdiction. He was wearing a thin blue line bandana.

Doesn't seem like this is gonna be a very peaceful election.

Thread: https://twitter.com/ericcervini/stat...792321025?s=19

[CastletonSnob]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1322587256675213312

Listen to how defeated Trump sounds.

[Felya]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1322587256675213312

Listen to how defeated Trump sounds.

This version is better:

[Breccia]

Doesn't seem like this is gonna be a very peaceful election.

I can't wait till this makes the national news. I have some Trump-supporting family members that need a good 24-hour challenge.

[alexw]

Texas rallies for Biden/Harris canceled because.....


...a bunch of Trump supporters were waiting on the side of the highway, armed, surrounded the Harris bus/various staff cars, and in one case bumped into a staff car. Outnumbered the cops 50 to 1, not that it mattered because..

...one of the campaign volunteers tried to call one of the police escorts over, and he said it wasn't his jurisdiction. He was wearing a thin blue line bandana.

Doesn't seem like this is gonna be a very peaceful election.

Thread: https://twitter.com/ericcervini/stat...792321025?s=19

These Republican terrorist organizations are going to need to be dismantled once Biden is in office.

They need to be cracked down on hard and their members arrested.

[Kaleredar]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1322587256675213312

Listen to how defeated Trump sounds.

Hopefully we make that feeling a reality.

These delays in mail-in votes being received has me concerned... once again, these are in the critical areas that decided the vote by a few thousand people. Effectively discarding millions of votes throws that entirely up in the air.

[Felya]

do yall ever learn

Quick question... Was Trump ever leading in 2016? Was he leading in January 2020? Notice anything peculiar?

[Kaleredar]

These Republican terrorist organizations are going to need to be dismantled once Biden is in office.

They need to be cracked down on hard and their members arrested.

I’d imagine stopping up traffic and pulling a vehicle over at gunpoint is all kinds of prosecutable.

[Breccia]

Listen to how defeated Trump sounds.

I didn't expect much when I clicked. I was ready to say "nah he's just tired, look at his schedule".

And he is slumping, he is hoarse. Which, yeah, 15 rallies in 4 days in freezing temps will do to even "the healthiest bone spurs to ever climb Mt. Fatass".

But yeah, he just sounds tired of winning. Is he running for the Pity Party?

Doesn't matter. What matters is votes. No remorse, no mercy, get out there and vote him out of office. Unless you already voted.

[Felya]

I can't wait till this makes the national news. I have some Trump-supporting family members that need a good 24-hour challenge.

National news is starting to pick it up:

US election: Biden event in Texas cancelled as 'armed' Trump supporters threaten campaign bus
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1477876.html

There goes the ‘crazy liberals argument’ on the national stage...

Edit: International... lol

[TACOshake]

I’d imagine stopping up traffic and pulling a vehicle over at gunpoint is all kinds of prosecutable.

Not when it's done by off duty cops. Or its the nephew of the county sheriff.

ACAB And cop families are usually assholes too.

Notice these guys are driving on the shoulders, trying to PIT the biden car. These are cop manuevers.



Maybe its this civil war already. Viscous assholes in their small penis vehicles.

[Endus]

These Republican terrorist organizations are going to need to be dismantled once Biden is in office.

They need to be cracked down on hard and their members arrested.

In all seriousness, I hope the folks on the bus and staff cars were filming with their phones, because every single goddamned identifiable person there needs to be criminally charged and put in prison.

Every single one.

Including the officers who refused to help.