Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Jastall]

God I remember doing that in 2016 and thinking we got this, and then waking up to this four year nightmare

Very much a possibility again of course, but I'd rather be catapulted shit than having it be slowly drip fed.

Plus less of a nightmare for me as I'm not American. I just want my international airwaves free of this buffoon. Albeit I still do dread the effects of four more years of Trump on American democracy and social issues.

[pathora44]

At this point there are one of two options: Trump either doesn't care about his supporters enough to actually make sure the buses are there or his campaign is too cash-strapped to pay for buses. Either is a viable possibility. It's happened twice in one week now.

Sad thing is that Trump supporters are too indoctrinated to care that Trump doesn't give a damn about them.

3 times if you count Trump sending 17 lemmings in Tampa Bay to the hospital in sweltering heat and suffocating humidity.

[CastletonSnob]

If Biden wins AZ, MI, WI, and NC, assuming he wins all the states Hilary did, that's 284 EVs right there.

[Breccia]

While campaigning for Biden, Obama drills one from downtown.

[Thepersona]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/statu...618383872?s=19

Okay this is how Twitter panicks you. Some say a strong lead equals Trump taking Midwest states. Iowa was closer and now seems a Trump lock. Oh btw, Joni Ernst seems safe.

Oh I hate this election. Yes we can say Biden is much stronger in states Clinton lost in 2016 and even then Trump barely won. Still I hate this.

Dude, Relax. This is an outlier.


https://leantossup.ca/selzers-wrong/

Like, I hate saying it too. It is terrifying to be going through this cycle thinking one thing and then having this come. It should lead to introspection, not denialism, and there’s little to be gained from going out on such a limb. This is the person who says the Obama breakthrough, the one who always says she listens to what the data says, all that. This is what a good pollster is supposed to do, too – release the final poll, even if you think it’s barking mad. And yet…

It’s one thing to get a weird result, but entirely another to do so in a way that makes no sense. Apparently Democrats are losing the battle for the 1st District by 15%, which is not happening, and Trump is winning young voters, which is also not happening. Nor, for the record, is the GOP winning the 2nd District.

Amongst the things that are wrong about this poll is the fact that Selzer doesn’t weight by education, which I either knew and discarded because I trust Selzer or never learned, but either way, it’s bad. I suspect that this is a fairly leading cause of the error – an overly rural sample causes an error. Selzer missed in 2018 by overstating Democrats in the Governor’s race, and it is frequently the case that pollsters over adjust after a miss. The other main thing that causes alarm is that Selzer has basically given up on actual polling by letting 4% of the sample of her poll say they voted without saying who for. What fucking value is there to those people?

Also, for the Sienna/NYT poll that's released at 5AM(!) EST (i suppose), have in mind that they oversampled (purposefully?) republicans.

[Paranoid Android]

This poll is an outlier as much as the Biden up 17 in Wisconsin is an outlier.

If you dig down into their individual house races, it has the GOP winning IA01 by 15 points...

It flipped blue in 2018.

On top of that Independents in this sample moved towards Trump by 26 points since September. That does not seem likely.


Even if you apply these numbers across the board, its still Trump losing 2% support from 2016, which would still lead to a Biden presidency.

Umm its the Des Moines Register poll. Always won of the most accurate polls in the nation for state polling. If you want to go back and forth with 7 points, okay. I believe its solid for Trump in more the 5-7 point now.

But, hey I'm not too invested into discussing each poll. My point was more that what people are trying to panic saying the Midwest is slipping away. This is where I have doubts, but oh boy I worry.

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Dude, Relax. This is an outlier.


https://leantossup.ca/selzers-wrong/



Also, for the Sienna/NYT poll that's released at 5AM(!) EST (i suppose), have in mind that they oversampled (purposefully?) republicans.

Again its the Des Moines Register. They are known for their in state polls.

[Thepersona]

Again its the Des Moines Register. They are known for their in state polls.

Dude, said poll had a 7% MOE. That's massive

[beanman12345]

iowa is a tossup with new poll. to say ernst is safe or that Trump will win iowa is a bit premature. but the last few polls coming out of iowa is concerning.

[kaelleria]

Umm its the Des Moines Register poll. Always won of the most accurate polls in the nation for state polling. If you want to go back and forth with 7 points, okay. I believe its solid for Trump in more the 5-7 point now.

But, hey I'm not too invested into discussing each poll. My point was more that what people are trying to panic saying the Midwest is slipping away. This is where I have doubts, but oh boy I worry.

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Again its the Des Moines Register. They are known for their in state polls.

And polls can be off.

They were off by 5 in the governor's race in 2018.

There's no way Independents moved to Trump by 26% in September to October.

There's also 14% that were put into Already Voted, Prefer not to Say.

Who has been crushing the EV in Iowa? Democrats.


I'm not saying Trump won't win, because it's absolutely possible, but we should not completely freak out over this one poll that runs counter to literally every other reputable poll released recently.

[Kaleredar]

iowa is a tossup with new poll. to say ernst is safe or that Trump will win iowa is a bit premature. but the last few polls coming out of iowa is concerning.

Luckily Biden's victory doesn't hinge on Iowa.

But he needs as many states as possible solidly under his belt to offset the inevitable attempted ratfucking the GOP is going to try.

[beanman12345]

Luckily Biden's victory doesn't hinge on Iowa.

But he needs as many states as possible solidly under his belt to offset the inevitable attempted ratfucking the GOP is going to try.

I'm less worried about trump winning iowa then I am Ernst. She needs to go!

[kaelleria]

Case and point... Utah poll has Trump up only 7... from 10 a few weeks ago.

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https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...-voting-blog-3

Trump is toast in Nevada.

[Breccia]

Trump is toast in Nevada.

Biden is further ahead in Nevada than he is in Pennsylvania, which is 4+%.

[Machismo]

Honestly, I don't know how to respond to that level of delusion. At the point that the vehicles contact each other, the truck is entirely in its own lane:



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I have no idea what you're looking at. You people seem to have lost your damned minds. The truck is traveling in its lane behind the bus and gets sideswiped.

Damn, son... you're doing anything you can to defend terrorism.

[pathora44]

Damn, son... you're doing anything you can to defend terrorism.

One mans terrorist is another man's hero and nothing is more god damn heroic then the brave fighting men of Ya'll Qaeda. With brown streaked American flag boxers and beer guts as wide as they stick out they will fight for a country that is like it was back in the 1850's.

[kaelleria]

Biden is further ahead in Nevada than he is in Pennsylvania, which is 4+%.

ABC/WaPo poll just came out... Biden +7 among LV.

[Machismo]

One mans terrorist is another man's hero and nothing is more god damn heroic then the brave fighting men of Ya'll Qaeda. With brown streaked American flag boxers and beer guts as wide as they stick out they will fight for a country that is like it was back in the 1850's.

In the end, it merely helps to confirm what most of us have long known about Trump and his cult.

[Adam Jensen]

Biden has, last I checked, an 89% chance of winning according to, I think, 538.

Yet I keep looking at Tuesday with dread.

[Thepersona]

Biden has, last I checked, an 89% chance of winning according to, I think, 538.

Yet I keep looking at Tuesday with dread.

Now it's 90%

[Captain N]

In the words of Seth Meyers -- "We only have three more days until the Supreme Court tells us who is President."