Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Thepersona]

The trolls...

And who trolls who depends on the winner.

Also, this time, 24 hours from now, we'll get a reading on how the race is going. KY and IN start to announce their results. I know, both states skew hard republican, but we need to see the margins, as anything lower than 65/30 for republicans spells disaster (at least in KY) .

[Milchshake]

The trolls...

Expecting a lot of trolling and disinformation to start rolling out at 9am St. Petersburg time.

Which is like 2am Eastern time...

[beanman12345]

For us non-Americans, which of the toss-up states have Republican governors who will try and subvert democracy and which have Democrat ones who will try and defend it? I know both Texas and Florida are R which will make it much harder there but was relieved to hear that Pennsylvania is a D.

it's kinda confusing tbh. Some states elect a secretary of state, some are appointed by the governor. It's really the secstate that has the power, not the governor, but if they're appointed, it's possible they'll do the will of the governor who appointed them. Wisconsin it's elected. Michigan is elected. Pennsylvania is appointed. All 3 of these are dem's. So, to answer your main question, essentially none of them. now other states like texas, if that goes blue, sec state there is appointed so they might subvert democracy, we'll see.

[arandomuser]

while rust belt polls usually undercount trump support, sun belt states undercount dem voters
im hoping for arizona and texas, more than i am even michigan and pennsylvania..
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...trump-n1244753
based on this


"The regional divergence was striking: In the Midwest and Great Lakes states, polls undershot Republicans' final margin in 28 of 33 cases, including by an average of 4.4 points in the "Trump triumph" of 2016 and 2.5 points in the "blue wave" of 2018.

But in the Southwest, polls undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018.

basically both the midwest and southwest are complete tossups

[draynay]

The trolls...

No kidding, the forums need seasonal mods or deputies or something.

[Thepersona]

while rust belt polls usually undercount trump support, sun belt states undercount dem voters
im hoping for arizona and texas, more than i am even michigan and pennsylvania..
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...trump-n1244753
based on this


"The regional divergence was striking: In the Midwest and Great Lakes states, polls undershot Republicans' final margin in 28 of 33 cases, including by an average of 4.4 points in the "Trump triumph" of 2016 and 2.5 points in the "blue wave" of 2018.

But in the Southwest, polls undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018.

They undercounted. AFAIK in 2018 they were spot on.

[SirBeef]

I remember watching a movie about the 2000 election for a US Government class, and thought the part where the Republicans take votes and get rid of them was totally unrealistic.

I was so naive back then.

Dude, they took ballot boxes from southern Ohio across the border to Kentucky to some warehouse for several hours before returning them to be tallied. This was also the election that Diebold voting machines were used that had a high propensity to change democracy votes to republican votes and were easily proven to be hacked by high school students.

Never, and I cannot stress this enough, never trust someone who identifies as republican or supports republicans. They are all terrible people. They encourage and enable this type of election fuckery as well as the blatant racism that happened under Obama and Trumo, sexism, misogyny, and bigotry. As well as shitting on the working class and their 1st ammendment rights to form unions, as well as, and fucking up the environment and healthcare because it may cost billion dollar companies money because they refuse to adapt.

Fuck them all. Dems better gonscorched earth with these fuckers when they sweep.

[arandomuser]

They undercounted. AFAIK in 2018 they were spot on.

it was within 2.5 in 2018 so they definitely got more accurate when they started doing the education weighting, but even so 2.5 points on average in 2018

[beanman12345]

while rust belt polls usually undercount trump support, sun belt states undercount dem voters
im hoping for arizona and texas, more than i am even michigan and pennsylvania..
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...trump-n1244753
based on this


"The regional divergence was striking: In the Midwest and Great Lakes states, polls undershot Republicans' final margin in 28 of 33 cases, including by an average of 4.4 points in the "Trump triumph" of 2016 and 2.5 points in the "blue wave" of 2018.

But in the Southwest, polls undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018.

basically both the midwest and southwest are complete tossups

AZ going to Biden i'm almost positive 99.9%. If he get's GA and NC on top of that, he don't even need the rust belt.

[Edge-]

https://lawandcrime.com/awkward/durh...-in-18-months/

Bad news for Trump and Barr -

Top prosecutors in the so-called Durham probe into the origins of the Russigate investigation have reportedly found “no evidence” to support the foundational theory that spawned the investigation—namely, that Obamagate occurred and needed to be punished.

According to a New York Magazine story relying on anonymous sources “familiar with the probe,” U.S. Attorney for the District of Connecticut John Durham has come up empty-handed and is growing increasingly frustrated with Attorney General Bill Barr over developments in the investigation–or, rather, the lack thereof.

Barr, for his part, has reportedly pressured Durham and his team for months over the investigation into the investigation–insisting that the prosecutor release the results before Election Day in an effort to use the full apparatus of the U.S. Department of Justice as a salve for President Donald Trump‘s electoral woes.

Apparently, unsurprisingly, Durham's investigation isn't turning up shit. So not only will it not be ready for the "October Surprise", but when it is released it'll probably be a helluva lot more boring that conservatives have been wishing.

[PhaelixWW]

For us non-Americans, which of the toss-up states have Republican governors who will try and subvert democracy and which have Democrat ones who will try and defend it? I know both Texas and Florida are R which will make it much harder there but was relieved to hear that Pennsylvania is a D.

There's very little the governors by themselves can do about the elections in their states. Pretty much anything would require legislation, so you'd have to have a complicit legislature to go along with the governor, of which there might be some, but you'd more importantly need time, of which there is none.

[CastletonSnob]

Could Biden flip TX?

[PhaelixWW]

Could Biden flip TX?

538 is modeling 39% chance of a Biden victory in Texas.

[jonnysensible]

so whos got the declares early victory, digs in at the white house (look at the defenses being put up), gets the loyal border guys to come be his footsoldiers along with law enforcement and heavily armed civilians. (ICE, CBP, BORTAC etc) and calls the loss fraud on the bingo card?

[beanman12345]

so whos got the declares early victory, digs in at the white house (look at the defenses being put up), gets the loyal border guys to come be his footsoldiers along with law enforcement and heavily armed civilians. (ICE, CBP, BORTAC etc) and calls the loss fraud on the bingo card?

They've moved the winning celebration party from his hotel, to his bunker.

[Breccia]

Could Biden flip TX?

He could, but he won't. He didn't put enough effort into it, cementing the "blue wall" instead.

Also Texas is apparently filled with literal terrorists. Just because they didn't kill anyone doesn't mean they didn't use threats and force to change political results.

[Kaleredar]

so whos got the declares early victory, digs in at the white house (look at the defenses being put up), gets the loyal border guys to come be his footsoldiers along with law enforcement and heavily armed civilians. (ICE, CBP, BORTAC etc) and calls the loss fraud on the bingo card?

As I noted before in this thread, in this hypothetical scenario I'll take the United States military as serving under then-legitimate president Joe Biden over some Ya'llqaeda and rent-a-cop ICE thugs.

[Crissi]

He could, but he won't. He didn't put enough effort into it, cementing the "blue wall" instead.

Also Texas is apparently filled with literal terrorists. Just because they didn't kill anyone doesn't mean they didn't use threats and force to change political results.

They put in a decent amount, just Biden himself didnt show. Harris showed, Julian Casto and Beto have been working non stop (Beto is still a superstar here, and will have an incredible legacy of being the one who really jump started the Texazul movement)

Dont underestimate how pissed we are about the GOP stupidity in this state. It's been getting more to purple for awhile.

But yeah, fuck the gravy seal terrorists.

[Thepersona]

They put in a decent amount, just Biden himself didnt show. Harris showed, Julian Casto and Beto have been working non stop (Beto is still a superstar here, and will have an incredible legacy of being the one who really jump started the Texazul movement)

Dont underestimate how pissed we are about the GOP stupidity in this state. It's been getting more to purple for awhile.

But yeah, fuck the gravy seal terrorists.

Hey, it may not turn it blue... but turning it purple is an achievement in itself.

[jonnysensible]

As I noted before in this thread, in this hypothetical scenario I'll take the United States military as serving under legitimate president Joe Biden over some Ya'llqaeda and rent-a-cop ICE thugs.

I think it probably wont happen yet...because I dont think the GOP think they will never win another election. If it becomes clear that they cant win in the future thats when it goes bad. At that point they will make parts of the country ungovernable.