1. #22561
    Quote Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb View Post
    Will we know the winner on November 3rd or early in the a.m on the fourth?
    Also, does Trump have an advantage with most of the mideast and southwest being red and being that absentee and early voting needing to be counted first -- make trump win over the states with a higher population and voter suppression such as Florida??
    I think we will know on November 3rd or 4th.

    Trump NEEDS to win PA, Texas, Florida, AND NC. Any one of these has a better than decent chance of flipping Biden and Trump has virtually no path to victory if one of these falls.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

    The map linked above adjusts path-to-victory below when you adjust even a single state.

    Based on this map, if I give Biden one of the following states:

    Florida -- Trump has <1% chance of winning
    Pennsylvania -- Trump has <3% chance of winning
    Texas -- Trump has <1% chance of winning
    North Carolina -- Trump has <1% chance of winning
    Georgia -- Trump has <1% chance of winning
    Arizona -- Trump has <2% chance of winning

    Current Polling:

    Florida -- Biden +2.4
    Pennsylvania -- Biden +5.7
    Texas -- Tie +0
    North Carolina -- Biden +2.6
    Georgia -- Biden +0.3
    Arizona -- Biden +2.6

    These are the battlegrounds this election and if one of these gets called for Biden, it's over for Trump. It's possible we know Florida and Pennsylvania before Midnight on election night.

    If both fall to Biden, Biden can call it a mandate and firing of Trump because the EC split is going to be like 380 : 150 for Trump.

    If Trump wins PA and FL but loses NC, then we have a little more to worry about as the night progresses because it's going to be a 50:50 tossup depending on how everything else plays out and states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and AZ become a lot more important.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    That looks good but I would like to know how is the youth split in places like Texas and Florida. For example, the youth in Kentucky is going to be more Republican than the youth in California.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    When people have tried to participate but feel shunned and ignored they let institutions burn.
    As opposed to not even being considered as a human being by their other option? If they want to let the institutions burn, they need to remember they're actually standing inside that institution. If they cannot realize that, then they're as dumb and useless as a hick in harlan county voting for Trump because the dems are gonna tax his disability check.

  2. #22562
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    When people have tried to participate but feel shunned and ignored they let institutions burn.
    Less than 60% of the public votes. If 100% of the people voted, there would have been no Trump. There would have been no Biden. There would have been no Bush. You feel shunned and ignored, because more than 40% of the country is silent. The lower the number of voters get, the more ignored and shunned you will feel. Guaranteed...

    Find the right to bare arms for the left... because Medicare for all, aign’t it...
    As above, so below.
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    That which is Below corresponds to that which is Above, and that which is Above corresponds to that which is Below, to accomplish the miracle of the One Thing.

  3. #22563
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qwerty123456 View Post
    They see you as the hateful option and Trump as a good guy(maybe neutral not 100% sure on that) He talks like a normal person where you want to make everyone use Xem and let "sex perverts" use the bathroom of their little girls.
    If you think a transgender person is a "sex pervert" and they want to deny them the use of the bathroom appropriate for their gender, you're the one being an abusive, hateful asshole.

    People telling you that you're an abusive, hateful asshole for stuff like that aren't being bullies towards you. They're pushing back against the hostility you initiated, for no reason whatsoever.

    Trying to explain that they really seriously are abusive, hateful, dickhead people in their heartest of hearts is not a defense of that bigotry. It just means that trying to convince them to a change is a waste of everyone's breath. All we can do is point out their bullshit for what it is, and move on without them.

  4. #22564
    Quote Originally Posted by qwerty123456 View Post
    In my town pretty much nothing changes no matter who is in except for gas prices/taxes/shit like that unless something drastic happens. These people don't have a problem with Trump because he hasn't done anything to them. They have heard and seen the nearby riots though and people calling them scum and so people like you end up being the problem and end up making shit even worse because they then tell their friends of the asshole liberals who called them racist/whatever or want all guns banned(massive hunting community where the only gun deaths are suicides) and now 2 people are pro Trump.
    I live in deep red country.

    Trump won where I live 62% to Hillary's 34%.

    My county as very much, a middle-class White America county with an average combined household income of $87k

    Trump will not win with 62% in 2020.

    Gas Prices and Taxes have really not changed since the 2016 election. Looking back, gas was still <$2 per gallon (as it's crept back to) and the only change in taxes that has occurred are the fact that the people here have noticed they no longer get federal refunds, which has been a sore spot for MANY of these families who have gotten themselves indebted and had been using tax refunds as a sort of lump-sum bonus since their normal paycheck keeps the family barely afloat.

    What has had a DRAMATIC impact to the people in my area is COVID.

    There are A LOT of small businesses closing down. We're currently climbing higher and higher in Covid cases. There are a lot of people struggling because they lost their jobs, whether it was at a small mom&pop shop that closed or just because sales in the service industry has been down.

    We have a large senior community who is scared shitless of getting sick.

    People are noticing.

    I have many people in my family who voted for Trump in 2016 who will either not be voting or voting for Biden in 2020. This is down to both Covid and Fatigue for Trump.

    I highly suspect, in my county, Trump will win, but it will be by low, single-digits and that's a major problem for Trump in my state because generally speaking, my county is often used as one of the balance points to two hyper-liberal areas of the state. What I mean by that is whenever there are state-wide elections, results from the two hyper-liberal areas come in rather quickly, only delayed if there are long lines waiting to vote, meanwhile, my county is slow to report due to incompetency by the people who report the results. But every time, all advantage that Democrats have is almost completely wiped out by my county when it does finally report.

    I just pulled up the 2020 and 2016 Presidential primary results. Now, in both 2016 and 2020, it was a foregone conclusion on who was the Democratic nominee and in 2020, there wasn't a true Republican challenger, however, in both elections, we had other stuff on the ballot to bring people out such as a Supreme Court justice.

    We had +20% Democratic turnout for our 2020 Presidential Primary in my county
    We had -40% Republican turnout for the 2020 Presidential Primary in my county

    The result for my state was a Supreme Court Justice taking over a Republican seat on the State Supreme Court for a 10-year term. This particular seat was previously held by Republicans for the last 39 years.

    I should also mention, my State's primary was held toward the start of the Pandemic, while people were more cautious, the affects of the pandemic were very unknown. We were under 15k deaths when our Primary was held.

    2016 Results for Supreme Court of my State--
    Republican - 52% (i)
    Democrat - 48%

    2017 Results for Supreme Court of my State--
    Republican - 100% (i)

    2018 Results for Supreme Court of my State-- (Incumbent didn't seek re-election, previously was a Conservative justice)
    Republican - 44%
    Democrat - 55%

    2019 Results for Supreme Court of my State-- (43-year conservative incumbent retired after illness)
    Republican - 50% (won by the slimmest of margins)
    Democrat - 50%

    2020 Results for Supreme Court of my State--
    Republican - 45% (i) seat held by Republican's for last 39 years
    Democrat - 55%
    Last edited by fwc577; 2020-10-25 at 04:09 PM.

  5. #22565
    Undecided voters in 2020


  6. #22566
    Quote Originally Posted by Arch-Angel of Riots View Post
    Uh, no.

    If you can't get the information to your targets, then that is a "you" problem, not the fault or issue of your 'targets'.

    Which is why I kept pointing out that Biden was doing a horrible job explaining his planned policies or future agenda, because the only place to find them apparently is by going to his campaign website. ... Somehow some people don't seem to understand how that is a really bad strategy in 2020 to try and make people understand what someone stands for.

    Some idiots believe that Biden is a socialist/communist because one side -did- manage to get their lies across, while the other one isn't even bothering.

    Or maybe just keeping people in the dark about Biden's 'planned policies' is the strategy the Dems want to go with because they're not all that inspiring or worth talking about. Who knows...
    No it is a person problem. Anyone who can't go "Biden campaign." into google and get what Biden is doing in the 21st century is pretty much FAILING at living in the 21st century. It's not 1800 anymore. If you don't have the internet wtf are you doing in the western world. You're basically shooting yourself in the foot then crying taht no one stopped you. Stop being a bitch and move into the 21st century.

  7. #22567
    Dont think young turnout is always a slam dunk for liberalism
    remember this is a gaming forum where pepe the frog memes and gamergate has taken over a significant chunk of people in our age group

  8. #22568
    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    Dont think young turnout is always a slam dunk for liberalism
    remember this is a gaming forum where pepe the frog memes and gamergate has taken over a significant chunk of people in our age group
    Most of those people don’t even vote. Also the key is to encourage voting. Whether your preferred party or not wins isn’t the point. The goal is to ensure whomever leads is democratically elected.

  9. #22569
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    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    Dont think young turnout is always a slam dunk for liberalism
    remember this is a gaming forum where pepe the frog memes and gamergate has taken over a significant chunk of people in our age group
    But they are a small minority. Most young people are aware of climate change, dont mind LGBTQ+ people, are fine with abortions, are much less religious than their parents...
    And loathe conservatives.
    Forgive my english, as i'm not a native speaker



  10. #22570
    One thing I am noticing this cycle in deep red Texas is a good number of Biden signs. My job has me rolling though the country and in '16 I saw next to no signs for Hillary and tons of Trump signs EVERYWHERE. Now I see an occasional Biden sign. A few Trump signs. But mostly just a lack of signs period. I don't have any doubt Trump will still win Texas. But just a casual look around shows me it's not as intense as it was in '16 for him even here.

  11. #22571
    Quote Originally Posted by qwerty123456 View Post
    No you are proving my point. Being an asshole drives people away. I have actually got someone in my town less pro Trump by explaining things and showing them shit where as people like you being dicks to them just makes them move farther right. If you say all X are evil and someone is an X but not evil you are driving people away.


    The guy that said that actually said it like right around when Trump got in. So like two years later when someone mentioned the paper guy again I had asked them why the Obama people hadn't tricked Trump yet which lead to them to start doubting other things the paper guy said. Had I just been like "hey you fucking retards are wrong" like you guys act they probably would have doubled down.
    I know you're banned and can't answer right now, but I'll post this question for the thread in general:

    Why are conservatives, like Donald Trump, Dick Cheney/Wolfowitz/Rumsfeld, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Joe McCarthy, allowed to be assholes, and are cheered on by these selfsame people?

    Why is it we become "unlikeable assholes," "coastal elites," "academic snobs sitting in our ivory towers," whenever we're jerks.......despite being correct, and on the right side of history for literally every issue in the past 60 years?

    Why did the first black President have to be so goddamn scandal-free and likeable before he could get elected, when the black leaders before him (including MLK Jr, who was America's most hated man when he was alive) were considered "uppity n-words" who didn't know their place, for merely asserting their rights?

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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    They aren't Republican talking points. They are voter insecurities that Republicans exploit and then moderates do the work of Republicans by further alienating the left.

    One easy example is the "Joe Biden Crime Bill". I call it that because the GOP has successfully made it Joe Biden's even though it was drafted in such a way to appease conservatives to get other things passed- what Biden does btw. Anyone left of the Clinton's, hell Obama, has criticized the bill since it was drafted. The GOP see this and it becomes their way of attacking mainstream Democrats. Instead of those Democrats saying "hey, we needed to get xyz passed so passed the bill but will fix it with abc" or a simple "we fucked up and now know better" they attack the critics and yell "YALL ARE JUST REPEATING REPUBLICAN TALKING POINTS" without even addressing the ills of the issue. And thus the GOP gets its way by cause mistrust among the left, the left is left disillusioned by the Democrats, the Democrats lose the House and/'or Senate again. Democrats love to eat the left while the GOP needs to toss a chair into the crowd to keep on trucking along. They take criticism from the left, regurgitate it, then reintroduce it back into the world.

    Actually try to do better instead of just arguing with the leftists and maybe they show up to the polls more and complain less.
    This bill had the blessing of the Black Congressional Caucus and passed the Senate 95-0. It didn't start to fall apart immediately, but when it did, that's when criticisms arose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arch-Angel of Riots View Post
    Tbh, while the average supporter's behavior is quite toxic to anyone who is a little bit more left than the DNC, it's not up to them to convince people to go out and vote.

    IF Biden or the DNC would actually show some real effort and real results (and not just pandering) to enforce economic progressive policies, or policies that address corporate power and inequality,
    THEN the left(er) voters will show more trust in the big tent of the Democratic Party again.

    It's a big if though... because history just doesn't support that this is anything the Democratic Party or Biden would do.
    Do you realize how much this country has ACTUALLY achieved since I was a kid in the 90s? Gay rights, attempting equal pay for women, a first crack at universal healthcare, balancing the budget, trying to extract us from foreign entanglement (good) through more remote methods like drones (bad), have all come from the Democratic Party.

    Conservatives have well and truly fucked this country. Every Democratic administration this century will be plagued with trying to unfuck it. That doesn't mean they're "not doing anything."

  12. #22572
    Warchief D Luniz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Low Hanging Fruit View Post
    One thing I am noticing this cycle in deep red Texas is a good number of Biden signs. My job has me rolling though the country and in '16 I saw next to no signs for Hillary and tons of Trump signs EVERYWHERE. Now I see an occasional Biden sign. A few Trump signs. But mostly just a lack of signs period. I don't have any doubt Trump will still win Texas. But just a casual look around shows me it's not as intense as it was in '16 for him even here.
    there is a "sign war" going on in my city, someone will put up a Trump sign or a Biden sign somewhere, then the first sign will be blocked by opposing signs or gone, only to be replaced in under a day.
    "Law and Order", lots of places have had that, Russia, North Korea, Saddam's Iraq.
    Laws can be made to enforce order of cruelty and brutality.
    Equality and Justice, that is how you have peace and a society that benefits all.

  13. #22573
    Hidden Common Ground: We found that Americans are more united than it appears

    Across partisan lines, for example, majorities of Americans support many measures to increase economic opportunity, security and fairness. These include infrastructure investments, retraining programs, affordable child care and incentives for businesses to keep jobs in the United States.

    We found as well a strengthening consensus that we ought to raise the minimum wage: While we reported in February that 66% of Americans favored this move, our September report shows that support rising to 72%, mostly because Republican support increased from 48% in the earlier survey to 62% in the more recent one.

    The search for agreement not only helps mark a path that Americans are ready to walk to address tough issues, it also illuminates those areas of authentic (as opposed to ginned up) disagreement that we need to navigate and work through to make deeper progress.

    In our view, the nation will be much better able to deal with our true disagreements if we are not constantly and falsely being told we are deeply polarized on just about everything, with the most extreme voices put forth to “prove” the case.

    ----

    That last point has become such an unfunny punchline.

  14. #22574
    Quote Originally Posted by draynay View Post
    Hunter is not running for anything.
    Thought you were alluding to Joe. Yeah I'd press charges. He has all that China money. :P

  15. #22575
    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    And yet the DNC is consistently the party with the voter enthusiasm and turnout issues? Why is that?
    God and guns vs big structural change.

    The GOP has successfully convinced the base that if Dems are in power, a teacher will hand their daughter condoms to go have sex in the school bathroom, and the nurse will be giving out abortion pills. They have successfully convinced the base that if Dems are in power, 2A will be repealed and the government will come take their guns away.

    This is completely untrue, but they keep voting GOP, thus the Dems don't have the power to do it, this it doesn't happen. Self fulfilling prophecy.

    Meanwhile, Dems have unsuccessfully sold the base on "big structural change" being the answer to all society's ills. It is, but they have precious few actual wins in that area, because big structural change needs broad based appeal to work, and when they reach across the aisle to get it done, that big change gets watered down to the point it has virtually no effect. Even things like ACA, where it institutes a big change that most actual voters like, the GOP finds a way to sell it as government control to the base, while using the courts to dismantle it piece by piece.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Woods View Post
    LOL never change guys. I guess you won't because conservatism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostpanther View Post
    I do care what people on this forum think of me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    This site is amazing. It's comments like this, that make this site amazing.

  16. #22576
    Quote Originally Posted by Low Hanging Fruit View Post
    One thing I am noticing this cycle in deep red Texas is a good number of Biden signs. My job has me rolling though the country and in '16 I saw next to no signs for Hillary and tons of Trump signs EVERYWHERE. Now I see an occasional Biden sign. A few Trump signs. But mostly just a lack of signs period. I don't have any doubt Trump will still win Texas. But just a casual look around shows me it's not as intense as it was in '16 for him even here.
    I have heard people are hesitant to put out signs for either side, especially for Donald Trump. They do not want their houses vandalized.
    It's just an old war, not even a cold war

  17. #22577
    Scarab Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins View Post
    I have heard people are hesitant to put out signs for either side, especially for Donald Trump. They do not want their houses vandalized.
    That's because you only listen to Trump supporters. <shrug>
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  18. #22578
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins View Post
    I have heard people are hesitant to put out signs for either side, especially for Donald Trump. They do not want their houses vandalized.
    Bullshit....

  19. #22579
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins View Post
    I have heard people are hesitant to put out signs for either side, especially for Donald Trump. They do not want their houses vandalized.
    That makes no sense, all trump supporters do is chant their cult mantra in everyone’s face.

    Yesterday a caravan of trucks and Trump support drove all over the city honking their horns and annoying the shit out of neighborhoods on a Saturday morning.

  20. #22580
    I do have a question, why the Trump fan cult still try to bullshit on a forum that at tops 30 people read it, where people already voted or cant even vote?

    The election is already decided, lets just talk about facts until the election day.

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