Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[kaelleria]

We have to wait 2 hours... and then we could make any assumption for FL.

Remember, under 300K is the magic number here.

Sumter County... That's all we need to know.

[PACOX]

We have to wait 2 hours... and then we could make any assumption for FL.

Remember, under 300K is the magic number here.

My local polling places were plenty empty when I passed a few about an hour ago. Republicans hold the plurality in my area. Don't think we'll be adding much to their total.

[Thepersona]

Sumter County... That's all we need to know.

Biden needs to lose by a 35/65 or tinier margin in that county and it's all over for Dotardito.

I'm still baffled that no one made a Sumter County poll

[kaelleria]

Biden needs to lose by a 35/65 or tinier margin in that county and it's all over for Dotardito.

I'm still baffled that no one made a Sumter County poll

They made one for Pinellas County... The one that flips back and forth every election in FL based on the winner...


https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/...18317882544131

We polled bellwether #Pinellas County, Florida one last time.
Trump won Pinellas +1% (5,419 votes) in 2016.
@StPetePolls
final numbers:
@JoeBiden
54%
@realDonaldTrump
45%

[Stormspellz]

Biden without question will win the popular vote but I'm most terrified about a bush v gore 2.0 possibility, thanks to the 5 republican activists on the scotus, and the facsist orange turd "wins" via court ratfuckery there will be blood.

[Breccia]

And... In florida they are underperforming...

IMPOTUS joke.

The issue with Florida seems to be, yes I did call this, voter intimidation efforts. DeSantis has no intention of helping, and even if complaints are filed, a blocked vote is a blocked vote.

Trump is likely to steal Florida.

[kaelleria]

Returns are looking bad for GOP in Maricopa County too...

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1323702938770927617

Maricopa high noon update: Dems are holding steady at the polls at around 2.5k voters per hour. The 11 o'clock hour saw a 1k dip in GOP voters.

GOP is currently leading by 24k ballots for election day only.

[Very Tired]

The Daily Show posted a great completion of all the Obama "sandals" we had to put up with while he was in office to remind us the crap they have to make up when we have a normal president in office.

[Thepersona]

Miami Dade is crushing it. They have a 4k dem lead.

[Leobald]

Remember, under 300K is the magic number here.

Could you explain what you mean by that? 300K votes compared to what?

[Breccia]

Returns are looking bad for GOP in Maricopa County too

Um...if the GOP leads by 24k and Democrats close by 1.5k / hour, Dems won't close the gap.

[PhaelixWW]

So the internet freaked out because Biden's team released internal numbers and what they're seeing on the ground....

People thought it meant that Trump only needed to win 60% on Eday... Which is very easy for republicans.

What it actually means is Trump needs to win +60% on Eday... Which is not going to happen.

Basically what they're seeing is its very hard for Trump to catch up in a lot of battleground states.

I don't think it means what you think it means. But neither do I think 60% is "very easy for republicans" today.

To make those numbers work, they're suggesting a gap of 155k votes right now in 2.5 cast ballots. For 60% to close the gap would imply a further 775k votes cast today, which sounds about right.

But to further the point, even if every single remaining registered voter turned out today, Trump would still need 54.5% of said vote today to close that supposed gap.

[Belize]

Also... Broward is crushing it -

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/sta...073425408?s=19

Don't Florida it up, Florida.

[Eviscero]

All of this speculation based on party affiliation is ridiculous folks! We all know the number of secret Dem Trump supporters is going to be huge, what with all the winning we've had in the last four years... right?

[Adam Jensen]

The Daily Show posted a great completion of all the Obama "sandals" we had to put up with while he was in office to remind us the crap they have to make up when we have a normal president in office.

Of all of those, the bicycle helmet one is just the most jaw dropping. It's just stupid, even without the gratuitous comparison to a shirtless Daddy Vladdy.

[Antiganon]

Um...if the GOP leads by 24k and Democrats close by 1.5k / hour, Dems won't close the gap.

That's 11/3 votes only IIRC.

[Kaleredar]

Nobody cares about SF. The City/County is looking to break their 87% voters turnout in 1944.

San Diego will likely break their all time record also.

I mean, hatred for Trump is in no short supply in the major population centers of California.

[Deja Thoris]

All of this speculation based on party affiliation is ridiculous folks! We all know the number of secret Dem Trump supporters is going to be huge, what with all the winning we've had in the last four years... right?

The shy Trump Dem supporter demographic. As rare as rocking horse shit!

Also, the tweets linked here are generally pretty good for the memes. A few have made me chuckle.

[Thepersona]

Could you explain what you mean by that? 300K votes compared to what?

Ok, i'll try. In 2018 republicans held a 4 points lead compared to democrats, and both the senate and governorship were decided by less than 1 point (so, NPAs broke for democrats, but it wasnt enough). For them to have a real chance at keeping FL red, they would need at least a 300k-400k voting lead (that's using all of the available polling data, so take it with a grain of salt). Using all available data, they do not have enough time to build said lead, statewide.

- - - Updated - - -

Um...if the GOP leads by 24k and Democrats close by 1.5k / hour, Dems won't close the gap.

They dont need to.

[unfilteredJW]

You guys talking about Florida are forgetting that the Panhandle exists.

Let me tell you, it's Trump country.