Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[CostinR]

My logical brain was telling me a month ago that Biden had it in the bag.

That was then. Polls have tightened significantly over the last few weeks and my gut is telling Trump will win. Either way I wouldn't put down money on either of them winning. I have an acquittance from PA who's firmly anti-Trump who bet 800 that Uncle Joe is gonna get close to or over 400 electoral votes and believes Biden will win Texas...yeah no.

[Valkyrst]

My logical brain was telling me a month ago that Biden had it in the bag.

That was then. Polls have tightened significantly over the last few weeks and my gut is telling Trump will win. Either way I wouldn't put down money on either of them winning. I have an acquittance from PA who's firmly anti-Trump who bet 800 that Uncle Joe is gonna get close to or over 400 electoral votes and believes Biden will win Texas...yeah no.

Dunno what polls you're looking at but they've stayed ridiculously static. Biden's national lead has been between +8/+9 for ages. If anything, he's build a somewhat +0.5 increase into his lead amongst most battleground states. Pennsylvania and Nevada have somewhat tightened, but that's thanks to polls from Atlas Intel, Susquehanna, Insider Advantage & Traflagar Group that are all run by GOP Super Pacs and/or ex-GOP strategists.

I'm making no predictions and expecting nothing, because I'm over in the UK. We're tremendously predictable. Our polls telegraph victory to the T.

Holy shit, Rick Santorum is an actual moron. I'm half convinced they brought him on just to embarrass the GOP and him.

[Dontrike]

By even more according to some polls. This election is going to be a test for the polls for sure.

On a entertainment view ( do not take it serous ) the cookie poll shows a easy win for Trump. Lol!

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/p...ner-owner-says

The official tally isn’t in just yet, but one candidate can safely claim victory in a Pennsylvania bakery’s cookie poll.

Lochel’s, a family-owned bakery located in the town of Hatboro, tells Fox News that the shop’s Trump-themed cookies are “vastly” outselling its Biden-themed cookies by a margin of almost 6 to 1, with some customers driving from neighboring states in order to get their hands on the treats.

“We had one guy drive twice from Staten Island for them,” said bakery owner Kathleen Lochel.

In other news Thin Mints sell more than Snickerdoodles.

[PACOX]

My logical brain was telling me a month ago that Biden had it in the bag.

That was then. Polls have tightened significantly over the last few weeks and my gut is telling Trump will win. Either way I wouldn't put down money on either of them winning. I have an acquittance from PA who's firmly anti-Trump who bet 800 that Uncle Joe is gonna get close to or over 400 electoral votes and believes Biden will win Texas...yeah no.

Im nervous but I don't know polls you're talking about. I also think I more nervous about the Senate. Probably wont take the Senate, which would suck with Biden as President but not the worst. Not taken the Senate and Trump being President...Jesus.

[Valkyrst]

In other news Thin Mints sell more than Snickerdoodles.

It's also because Trump supporters are just way more obnoxious. They'd rather blow a ton on cookies than pay taxes that help rebuild a country.

It also flies in the face of the whole 'shy voter' GOP contrarianism. We have the biggest rallies! WE ALSO HAVE A SILENT MAJORITY!

[Nelinrah]

Deer heads left near Biden/Harris and BLM signs in Oregon.

Because that's a perfectly normal thing.

[Valkyrst]

Deer heads left near Biden/Harris and BLM signs in Oregon.

Because that's a perfectly normal thing.

I read it as a directional thing. And I'm like...is a deer going left an omen of some sort?

But yeah, that's pretty disgusting, but not surprising. 'Shy Trump voters'.

[Timester]

I read it as a directional thing. And I'm like...is a deer going left an omen of some sort?

But yeah, that's pretty disgusting, but not surprising. 'Shy Trump voters'.

Silent majority indeed.

[arandomuser]

I read it as a directional thing. And I'm like...is a deer going left an omen of some sort?

But yeah, that's pretty disgusting, but not surprising. 'Shy Trump voters'.

yeah i dont get that alongside "silent majority" trump may win the EC, but i am confident there is no way he wins the popular vote, because its past margin of error for national polling, so the silent majority is the majority who didnt elect trump but have to live with him and his cult anyways.. because of the EC, so its more like "very energized and loud majority in 3 different states"

[Nelinrah]

yeah i dont get that alongside "silent majority" trump may win the EC, but i am confident there is no way he wins the popular vote, because its past margin of error for national polling, so the silent majority is the majority who didnt elect trump but have to live with him and his cult anyways.. because of the EC, so its more like "very energized and loud majority in 3 different states"

But it's tyranny if the majority picks the president!

Please ignore that tyrannical governments are always minority governments.

[thilicen]

Stocked up on popcorn and beef jerky. Dis gon be good.

[CostinR]

Im nervous but I don't know polls you're talking about. I also think I more nervous about the Senate. Probably wont take the Senate, which would suck with Biden as President but not the worst. Not taken the Senate and Trump being President...Jesus.

Just in general.

Here's a graph on RCP to give you an idea. You can also look at it state by state. People wanna smack talk Trafalgar but they have gotten important races right in the past and they are certainly more believable then those laughable jokesters who thought Clinton was going to win the Midwest by double digits in 2016 in some states.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...ground-states/

[Valkyrst]

yeah i dont get that alongside "silent majority" trump may win the EC, but i am confident there is no way he wins the popular vote, because its past margin of error for national polling, so the silent majority is the majority who didnt elect trump but have to live with him and his cult anyways.. because of the EC, so its more like "very energized and loud majority in 3 different states"

Trump won 2016 by a slither. I'm not discounting the possibility of MORE Trump supporters. I'm not discounting anything, tbh.

What I am...hoping for, is that the large majority of Americans have woken up and exercised their right to remove this moron from office.

Just in general.

Here's a graph on RCP to give you an idea. You can also look at it state by state. People wanna smack talk Trafalgar but they have gotten important races right in the past and they are certainly more believable then those laughable jokesters who thought Clinton was going to win the Midwest by double digits in 2016 in some states.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...ground-states/

Trafalgar's only claim to fame is 'predicting' the 2016 race. The issue is their entire methodology is flawed. Regarding people who quoted Clinton winning the Midwest by double digits in 2016 is concerned, they have the same partisan bias issues as Traflagar. So it's a false equivalency.

Any pollster that's run by ex-[INSERT PARTY] strategist or is essentially setup to provide services to [INSERT PARTY] will have bias.

For context, Robert Cahaly who runs Trafalgar, claims that the Democrats will steal the election in Pennsylvania. So yeah. Not exactly sane.

[Ausr]

Reading an article about how behind the scenes, Trump is musing about, if he loses this election, that he'll run in 2024. Like no, you'll (hopefully) be a one-term losing bitch president and you'll probably be in jail once NY rapes your ass, along with your shithole kids.

[arandomuser]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...polls-as-crazy for context on trafalgar their methodology is entirely flawed

[CostinR]

Trafalgar's only claim to fame is 'predicting' the 2016 race.

Even that alone would give them a lot more credit then many other races, and they didn't call the 2016 election: They called out Michigan and Pennsylvania. They called a lot of races correctly in 2018 for both Democrats and Republicans, crucially calling out Florida for both the governor and senatorial race:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/trum...gar-group.html

Regarding people who quoted Clinton winning the Midwest by double digits in 2016 is concerned, they have the same partisan bias issues as Traflagar. So it's a false equivalency.

Yeah well when it's a pollster associated with the Washington Post and New York Times and gets treated completely seriously to this day despite that while Trafalgar is mocked...well then.

I don't really care really what the biases of someone is if they are accurate with their work. This is the rather infuriating aspect about US elections: The damned pollsters are biased, not just in their personal views but also their work. If I look at X European country ( and for Americans don't think we don't have deep political divides here in many countries ) in general the polling tends to be fairly accurate. In the US? It's like a trip to Wonderland.

So far Trafalgar has been mostly accurate in the results they've given. If they are wrong they are wrong, if they are right they are right, and when someone who has a proven track record for Michigan tells me Trump's going to win there I'm listening to that guy until he is proven otherwise.

[Valkyrst]

That's not true tbh. They called a lot of races correctly in 2018 for both Democrats and Republicans, crucially calling out Florida for both the governor and sinoatrial race:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/trum...gar-group.html

I didn't say they haven't called anything else correctly. Per the 48 polls counted by 538, they've gotten 75% right. Which is a pretty mediocre return.

[szechuan]

That's not true tbh. They called a lot of races correctly in 2018 for both Democrats and Republicans, crucially calling out Florida for both the governor and sinoatrial race:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/trum...gar-group.html

He's going to be wrong, he also called out 2018 races that were safe for Republicans. 2018 was also a win for the Democrats, it's going to be a win for Biden.

[Valkyrst]

-snip-

Can I be honest? And don't be offended. I really don't care what you think is true or isn't true.

[CostinR]

I didn't say they haven't called anything else correctly. Per the 48 polls counted by 538, they've gotten 75% right. Which is a pretty mediocre return.

New York Times/Sienna - 69%
Washington Post/ABC - 72%
CNN/ORC - 72%
Fox News - 72%
NBC/Wall Street Journal - 72%

On and on it goes on 538 with many of the "respected" pollsters.

Can I be honest? And don't be offended. I really don't care what you think is true or isn't true.

Feel free to care about what you care or not, as long as people understand what could very well happen today. That's all there is to what I'm saying here: Trump can win.