Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Theodarzna]

Biden may still likely win. I cannot imagine a sitting president surviving 2020. Mail in ballots may yet turn things in Biden's favor. However it looks to be either way a narrow as all fuck election. Which is shocking given how 2020 alone has played out. I mean, the economy is in straight up ruins. A disease has killed what? 200k people? And yet.... the Dems are unlikely to win the Senate, couldn't unseat Mitch and might go down in flames to Trump. I still cannot believe it though and think a lot of hyperventilating should wait a week and then go into melt-down mode

[Flower Milk]

Uhm... Bernie lost to both of those... what sort of logic is this? Who keeps losing?

Yes a primary is actually a general election even though plenty of states have closed primaries and Independent voters decide the general election, which means Bernie actually lost to Trump even though he literally never ran against him. Makes complete sense, and is totally why Democrats should just keep doing the same thing running neoliberal moderates like Biden and make 0 changes, clearly a winning strategy as we've seen two presidential elections in a row now.

[Grapemask]

Trump is overperforming in PA in a county that has all their votes in that he won in 2016

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...25009320742915


If you do the math, if Trump wins PA it's over even if Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan. It's highly likely that the other counties Trump won in 2016 look similar.

Actually not true. Biden can lose Pennsylvania if he wins the other states. In fact, he can afford to lose one of the other states, too. It's Trump that needs a trifecta or he's out.

[Felya]

Florida disappoints us, everywhere else looks ok. We gained seats in the house and flipped some Senate Seats.

AZ flipping gave us life and then the Georgia mistake is giving us a possible 308 EV win.

I’m not smoking enough for this... but, hope is appreciated.

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Yes a primary is actually a general election even though plenty of states have closed primaries and Independent voters decide the general election, which means Bernie actually lost to Trump even though he literally never ran against him. Makes complete sense, and is totally why Democrats should just keep doing the same thing running neoliberal moderates like Biden and make 0 changes, clearly a winning strategy as we've seen two presidential elections in a row now.

So... you are counting on independent Trump voters, to vote socialist?

[apeiron1234]

Sooooo....Trump is going to win, right?

No, we still have the dump trucks of extra ballots for Biden that haven't been counted yet.

[Zan15]

The Democratic Party needs a massive reform. It needs to throw away the shackles from people like Pelosi and other conservatives and neoliberals within the party trying to keep the ship sailing the exact same course it has the past few decades. It needs a new set of captains, a new image and a new direction, in the form of actual progressives: AOC & Bernie, etc.

Ya they just need to up the bullshit to massive levels and get tons and tons of morons to believe in conspiracies and ridiculousness.

what a great massive reform, just what our country needs!!

[PACOX]

Well, define battleground. NH, FL, MN, and to a lesser extent OH are all considered battleground. Right now it 2-2, but Trump’s two are much larger than Biden’s two are.

Minnesota, Wi, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

[DarkTZeratul]

Trump is overperforming in PA in a county that has all their votes in that he won in 2016

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...25009320742915


If you do the math, if Trump wins PA it's over even if Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan. It's highly likely that the other counties Trump won in 2016 look similar.

It'd be close, but not impossible:

[Mormolyce]

LOL..Is that what Dems think she is?

I guess they underestimate how bigoted Republicans are? Like they actually expect them to look at her policies and not her gender or the colour of her skin.

But yes, Biden is a safe pick and he picked a safe VP. "Safe" in the terminology of Democrats means most likely to appeal to conservatives.

[AsariCommando]

What is happening in georgia?

Atlanta and Atlanta suburbs are just starting to report. Savannah, Augusta and Columbia are also still under 90% reported. Rural counties finished early, now we're just seeing if the urban areas can overtake the rural areas.

[Flower Milk]

Actually not true. Biden can lose Pennsylvania if he wins the other states. In fact, he can afford to lose one of the other states, too. It's Trump that needs a trifecta or he's out.

You can check here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...p/?cid=abcnews

If you put in Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania for Trump (he's already won Texas and Florida), it's like an 85/100 chance Trump wins.

I think if Biden wins Arizona and Georgia he might have a shot, but I think it's highly unlikely if he loses in Pennsylvania.

[Mormolyce]

So... you are counting on independent Trump voters, to vote socialist?

They're currently on Twitter begging Trump for handouts.

They love "socialism", they've just been trained to be afraid of the word.

[eschatological]

What are you guys seeing?

Millions of uncounted mail-in votes which have been skewing 65%+ Biden.

[Inuyaki]

Atlanta and Atlanta suburbs are just starting to report.

They actually stopped for tonight, so don't expect any more report until tmr

[Puzzony]

Is Nevada blue or red historically?

[PACOX]

What the fuck is wrong with Americans? So much for a blue fucking wave. Was really hoping you guys would take the senate/presidency and destroy the trump family and pass so many laws and catch up with the rest of the first world countries hopefully starting with healthcare and education etc. Speaking of education.. how the FUCK do you fix having half your population gullible fucking idiots with low to no education who are easily tricked into this BS. The GoP will continue to suppress votes and keep people uneducated because that is their fucking base and if the dems don't get power and raise everyone up then this shit will keep happening. This is absolutely un fucking believable ZERO HOPE FOR YOU PEOPLE.

Coastal elites have been trying to get the rest of the left to buy into their 'referendum on the right' for about 6 years now without while still being friends with their red centrists buddies and not giving anything to the people who they needed to carry to vote for them. run-on sentence...it backfired.

[Mormolyce]

Lmao how can you piss away the fact you're not responsible for 200,000 deaths. Democrats really flubbed this one.

Ideological echo chambers. Listen to the Trumpheads here - they live in an alternate reality with alternate facts.

[Drutt]

Anyone familiar with the way these midwest states do their mail-in absentees?

Here a mail-in vote is treated like a traditional vote. In some states, there's a distinction between mail-in and absentee where you need a 'valid reason' for either and they can reject ballots on grounds more than say a signature like we have here (which isn't as harsh as some states).

Are those remote ballots already approved and just not counted or can they still be thrown out?

In Wisconsin, we have to apply and submit ID. Once you receive the ballot, you're golden.

Counting the ballots is interesting; for many areas, no mail in ballots are applied to the total until all of the mail in ballots are counted. This means you go right from 0 to 100.

Milwaukee is one of those areas, the largest source of votes in the state. They won't be posting mail in ballot results until at least 4am per the Mayor.

[Felya]

Atlanta and Atlanta suburbs are just starting to report. Savannah, Augusta and Columbia are also still under 90% reported. Rural counties finished early, now we're just seeing if the urban areas can overtake the rural areas.

Requiring an about 10.5%/3.5% split of remaining voters...

[Mormolyce]

Is Nevada blue or red historically?

I think it's a swing state, last three elections have been blue though.