Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[starlord]

how do you poll against people that flat out lie though? not rhetorical, interested

keep in mind there's been record turnout.
we will have to wait for the autopsy to see if people lied or maybe there was a lot of new/intermittent voters.

[JustinJgh]

Any Senate hope?

[Gaidax]

how do you poll against people that flat out lie though? not rhetorical, interested

Ask Trafalgar, guess they have figured out something there.

Last time I heard their methodology accounts for it both in the way they poll and in the way they process the data. They are not 100% right, for example they said AZ goes to Trump, but they sure are much closer than anything right now.

But I mean, various senior pollsters should have adjusted their shit, it's almost like they looked at lessons learned from 2016 and were like "nyah... that was just a fluke, business as usual in 2020".

[Lame Pala]

how do you poll against people that flat out lie though? not rhetorical, interested

You do a google trends search on qanon and work out how many crazy people there are in the US, then you subtract from the vote sample. It isn't difficult.

If you adjusted for that you have the exact current voting %'s.You can break it down state by state. This is how I win money from elections.

[Machismo]

You do a google trends search on qanon and work out how many crazy people there are in the US, then you subtract from the vote sample. It isn't difficult.

If you adjusted for that you have the exact current voting %'s.You can break it down state by state. This is how I win money from elections.

Evidence, please.

[Lame Pala]

While I didn't trust polls as much, but remained optimistic, they were fuck awful this year. I know a take from a lot of people from another board is that Nate Silver can fuck off and has no credibility.

Been saying the same here for years but the democrat echo chamber here tends to ban people who aren't actively cheerleading for Trump all the time.

Silver lost all credibility in 2015 when he completely fucked up the 2015 UK election. Americans didn't pay attention because they don't care about what happens elsewhere, but he got it so wrong it was obvious he was just basically guessing.

[Timester]

50k difference in Michigan right now.

[Thepersona]

WI is a wrap.

[Lame Pala]

Ask Trafalgar, guess they have figured out something there.

Last time I heard their methodology accounts for it both in the way they poll and in the way they process the data. They are not 100% right, for example they said AZ goes to Trump, but they sure are much closer than anything right now.

But I mean, various senior pollsters should have adjusted their shit, it's almost like they looked at lessons learned from 2016 and were like "nyah... that was just a fluke, business as usual in 2020".

To be fair to the pollsters historically they are very accurate. And they probably will be going forward, within the margins of standard error.

The problem is that recently there have been a lot of elections where far right populists attract support from people who are too embarassed to admit it, and you can't poll people who won't talk to you.

[postman1782]

Wisconsin looks like a fucking toss up. Biden's lead is like 12k according to AP.

Which is higher than what MSNBC has. But they are still missing a lot of mail in votes from Green Bay.

- - - Updated - - -

First of all, good morning everyone. Thanks for making this interesting. /s

NY Times now has Georgia with a 64% chance to go to Biden. I somehow don't trust this assesment...

Almost all of the votes missing from Georgia, are mail in votes, from Atlanta. Could be right, could be wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

You don't work with white supremacists ever. That is undoubtedly why Biden did not get the entire support of the black community. It is not rocket science.

Yet, Trump has them employed in his fucking cabinet/Whitehouse. And you don't know shit about the black vote, because that hasn't been tabulated yet.

- - - Updated - - -

Any Senate hope?

They picked up one, and lost one, safe to say, I don't think the Senate is changing hands.

[tromage2]

Country is almost 50/50 no matter what president the USA gets 50% of the people will not back their policies what will be a bad situation no matter what result will come out of this election.

[Timester]

Yes, Wisconsin's difference is growing.

[Mihalik]

The only reason Wisconsin even seems competitive is due to the good work Jo Jorgensen, Caroll and Blankenship put into peeling off some right wing votes from the GOP.

- - - Updated - - -

First of all, good morning everyone. Thanks for making this interesting. /s

NY Times now has Georgia with a 64% chance to go to Biden. I somehow don't trust this assesment...

I could use some of whatever the heck they are smoking.

[Inuyaki]

You don't work with white supremacists ever.

Says the person who wants one as president... WOW

[Lame Pala]

Yet, Trump has them employed in his fucking cabinet/Whitehouse. And you don't know shit about the black vote, because that hasn't been tabulated yet.

Every time someone explained to you people why you were walking into a minefield you deflect it with "Trump is worse" and start blathering on some insane rant which was nothing to do with what was being discussed. If you are feeling emotional, go and have a cry or something, don't bore me with it.

Trump does not need black people to vote for him in great numbers. The democrats do. For Trump, racism is a plus since he appeals mainly to racists. For Biden, he needs black people to vote FOR him, and they didn't in sufficient numbers due to his ugly history of bigotry.

[postman1782]

Every time someone explained to you people why you were walking into a minefield you deflect it with "Trump is worse" and start blathering on some insane rant which was nothing to do with what was being discussed. If you are feeling emotional, go and have a cry or something, don't bore me with it.

Trump does not need black people to vote for him in great numbers. The democrats do. For Trump, racism is a plus since he appeals mainly to racists. For Biden, he needs black people to vote FOR him, and they didn't in sufficient numbers due to his ugly history of bigotry.

And you have no evidence for that. So stop claiming that.

[Belize]

Does anyone know what's left to count in Michigan?

NV and WI are going Biden, some MI and PA are the two last real spots needed.

[Lame Pala]

Says the person who wants one as president... WOW

If Trump wins it is on YOU. I, and other progressives, told you exactly what would happen. If you had listened to people on the left this would have been an easy win.

As it looks currently your horrible little candidate will likely squeak through. You got lucky.

[Mihalik]

Country is almost 50/50 no matter what president the USA gets 50% of the people will not back their policies what will be a bad situation no matter what result will come out of this election.

The country isn't 50/50. Trump, whether he wins or loses the elections will lose the popular vote by something like 5+ million votes.

It's that our electoral system is retarded and it heavily favors rural areas over the places where people actually live, cities.

[Timester]

Does anyone know what's left to count in Michigan?

Wayne County is at 64%