Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Zan15]

Where at? Each tracker is a bit different, not seeing that call on NYT or from the AP.

foxnews...the irony...the tasty irony....

[PhaelixWW]

We should gauge by percentage of registered voting population.

I'd say VAP or VEP would be better.

[beanman12345]

Did AZ get uncalled or something? Right now Biden is sitting at 264 called states from what I can tell.

AP Fox and Politico called it yesterday. Some places NYTimes CNN etc have yet to call it. nobody has uncalled it as far as I can tell.

[Bodakane]

Agreed.

TRV = total registered voters

2008: Obama 47.5% of TRV
2012: Obama 43% of TRV
2016: Trump 40% of TRV

[Leberman]

Did AZ get uncalled or something? Right now Biden is sitting at 264 called states from what I can tell.

AZ is included in 264.

[Northern Goblin]

HRC got 66m votes in 2016.

Trump is currently sitting on 68m and counting.

By the final tally he'll likely have accrued over 70m votes.

The country is nuts.

If that's true, he'll have more votes than both Obama victories.

The turnout this year is mental.

[Bodakane]

I'd say VAP or VEP would be better.

How come? /10char

[Sunseeker]

My god, I can't believe this is really looking to come down to 270/268. Like, JFC. I wasn't expecting a HUGE Biden win mind you, but not this 51%/49% bullshit.

[Xeones]

Where at? Each tracker is a bit different, not seeing that call on NYT or from the AP.

Most places but AP have called MI for Biden.

[Breccia]

Did AZ get uncalled or something? .

An earlier error caused them to say they had 98% in when it was 86% and since then everypne's jumpy.

[Frozenbeef]

What is the name of this man, i like him compared to the other people in the show, seems to have a lovely neutral opinion.

[Xeones]

An earlier error caused them to say they had 98% in when it was 86% and since then everypne's jumpy.

Ok I had been seeing people talk about AZ but wasn't sure why.

[Mihalik]

Most places but AP have called MI for Biden.

I'm really wondering why AP is holding out on that one.

Are they seeing/hearing something others don't?

[Kathranis]

I know it's not exactly over yet, but the Trump campaign is really projecting a total lack of confidence now, just trying to monkey with the results in laughably obvious ways.

No real legal ground to stand on other than a likely ineffectual recount in WI. I really didn't think their attempt to steal the election would be so inept.

The desperation just kind of gives it away.

[For_The_Horde]

Did AZ get uncalled or something? Right now Biden is sitting at 264 called states from what I can tell.

From Fivethirtyeight

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ults-coverage/

[Belize]

My god, I can't believe this is really looking to come down to 270/268. Like, JFC. I wasn't expecting a HUGE Biden win mind you, but not this 51%/49% bullshit.

There's a high likelihood PA goes Biden.

One of the State's Senator has his ear on the ground in the vote counts and he's saying it's going to be 50-100K for Biden by the end of the counting


Trump lost a 400K lead in half a day with about 1/3 of the ballots counted

[Theodarzna]

lol yeah, Californians actually did pretty good, imo. Rejecting higher commercial property taxes, rejecting woke racism, rejecting bogus regulations(e.g. dialysis requirements), and being pro-gig economy.

The gig economy is absolutely atrocious for workers rights.

[draynay]

I know it's not exactly over yet, but the Trump campaign is really projecting a total lack of confidence now, just trying to monkey with the results in laughably obvious ways.

No real legal ground to stand on other than a likely ineffectual recount in WI. I really didn't think their attempt to steal the election would be so inept.

The desperation just kind of gives it away.

That's how they've been for months.

[Xeones]

I know it's not exactly over yet, but the Trump campaign is really projecting a total lack of confidence now, just trying to monkey with the results in laughably obvious ways.

No real legal ground to stand on other than a likely ineffectual recount in WI. I really didn't think their attempt to steal the election would be so inept.

The desperation just kind of gives it away.

What is he supposed to do. The attempt in PA is literally just "They need to stop counting legally cast votes because I don't want to lose"

He's just doing what he was supposed to do in 2016 lose and cause chaos while doing it.

[Zaydin]

I know it's not exactly over yet, but the Trump campaign is really projecting a total lack of confidence now, just trying to monkey with the results in laughably obvious ways.

No real legal ground to stand on other than a likely ineffectual recount in WI. I really didn't think their attempt to steal the election would be so inept.

The desperation just kind of gives it away.

What I find more striking is the shift in mood over the last 12 hours. Last night, Trump supporters were crowing and Dems were ready to tear each other apart/have nervous breakdowns and now we have switched spaces with Trump supporters now having the breakdowns. Granted, I'm still too wary of how desperate Trump is to cheat his way to a win to get confident but I feel better right now than I did 12 hours ago.

Granted, the Dems need to figure out what went wrong in some races where they were projected ahead and lost, though that's also an issue the polling industry needs to address, too.