Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Felya]

PA down to 135k

Can we please just swing it to Biden for a second, so I can fap peace.

[Grapemask]

I am inclined to point this out:



There are 13 military bases in GA... including one of the biggest in the country:
https://militarybases.com/georgia/

Oh yeah, it's definitely not a done deal. I think the part that's almost guaranteed at this point is that Perdue goes to runoff though - he's sitting at some tiny fraction above 50.0%, so basically if the gap between him and Ossoff tightens one inch, he's got another 2 months of campaigning ahead of him.

[Mormolyce]

PA down to 135k

Gap narrowed - he needs 58/43 split of the remainder to win PA.

[Felya]

Oh yeah, it's definitely not a done deal. I think the part that's almost guaranteed at this point is that Perdue goes to runoff though - he's sitting at some tiny fraction above 50.0%, so basically if the gap between him and Ossoff tightens one inch, he's got another 2 months of campaigning ahead of him.

Here is a counter to what I said... The reason I know about those bases, is because my gf’s family served there. It’s a common trainee area... the catch... their absentee ballots are not counted for GA, unless they are from GA.

[Fahrenheit]

Can we please just swing it to Biden for a second, so I can fap peace.

Well, in the past hour, Trump's lead went from 164k to 135k. Still about 500k votes left to go, Biden is winning them by a combined 77%. In Philly, which has a little over 100k of those 500k, Biden is wining them at 90+%.

[Antiganon]

Yeah but it's Alaska is there some expectation that it's likely going any other way, Trump is well ahead in Alaska.

AP does not call an election until they are reasonably sure the one candidate has no path to victory. They base this on ballot counts and their own proprietary exit polling, which includes mail in and early votes.

I imagine they will call Alaska for Trump as soon as mail in votes begin counting.

[josykay]

Here is a counter to what I said... The reason I know about those bases, is because my gf’s family served there. It’s a common trainee area... the catch... their absentee ballots are not counted for GA, unless they are from GA.

So they are most likely meaningless?

[Liftbrul]

What an embarrassing circus so far. Hopefully it'll be done by tonight, but I doubt the country should be so lucky.

[Belize]

Gap narrowed - he needs 58/43 split of the remainder to win PA.

Unless all that's left is bumfuck county, he's been leading ballot count 70/30 on average.

Looking good, hopefully we can cross over today.

[Felya]

So they are most likely meaningless?

Indeed... what would mater, is how many people from Georgia are in the military, serving outside the state.

[Mormolyce]

and the other half hasn't.
So not saying much.

AZ has ~400k uncounted votes, at the current tally Trump would need the rest of the votes to go his way by a margin of 59/41 (which is slightly worse than the last time I checked).

Anything is possible of course, but I'd say AP called that race because they expect the remaining districts to lean Biden's way, not Trump's. Other agencies are being more cautious... or perhaps more optimistic in the case of Fox.

[Felya]

What an embarrassing circus so far. Hopefully it'll be done by tonight, but I doubt the country should be so lucky.

Trump jumped the shark with his lawsuits and conspiracy theories. If Biden has a slim lead, and calls it, he puts him self in Bush’s position from 2000, with the popular vote behind him.

[josykay]

Indeed... what would mater, is how many people from Georgia are in the military, serving outside the state.

Are they particulary large in numbers? Anything known there?

[Mormolyce]

Can we please just swing it to Biden for a second, so I can fap peace.

Come back in 4 hours or so and you'll know whether to fap or shit.

I'm gonna hit the hay, hopefully there will be a result by morning.

[Felya]

Are they particulary large in numbers? Anything known there?

Google is not helping...

- - - Updated - - -

Come back in 4 hours or so and you'll know whether to fap or shit.

I'm gonna hit the hay, hopefully there will be a result by morning.

Yah, I am going to work soon... and by that I mean I am going to log into a lap top in my living room.

[Shadowferal]

Historically they are not. Less then 10% of deployed military actually votes, and there really isn't that many of them. It comes out to about 90-100k military votes spread all over the US (Assuming it was higher this year). The military isn't particularly monolithic in how it votes either, so it isn't likely to contribute to any results. It comes up every election, but the math is never there.

Different times.

Military ballots among those left to be counted

While it's unclear exactly how many military ballots are outstanding in all of those states, four years ago, those voters sent mail-in ballots by the thousands.

"We won't know the exact number of ballots outstanding, but past elections show the importance of counting these votes," said Jack Noland, research manager at Count Every Heroes, an organization focused on ensuring military ballots are counted.

"This year - especially because of the impacts of COVID-19 - the integrity of the election rests on mail-in votes, including ballots from members of the military, being validated and counted. We must count every ballot."

Pennsylvania, where Trump was leading Biden by about half a million votes as of Wednesday afternoon, will continue to accept military ballots until Nov. 10.

"I'll also just remind everyone, military and overseas ballots are not due until a week after Election Day," Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said at a news conference Wednesday. "We want to make sure that not only every civilian absentee mail-in valid voter is counted but also that every man and woman who are serving our country, that their votes are counted."

[szechuan]

Google is not helping...
Yah, I am going to work soon... and by that I mean I am going to log into a lap top in my living room.

Biden will win PA.

[josykay]

Google is not helping...

- - - Updated - - -



Yah, I am going to work soon... and by that I mean I am going to log into a lap top in my living room.

Yeah, doesn't help, that Georgia is also a nation in Europe/ Asia.

[Thekri]

Are they particulary large in numbers? Anything known there?

No. Military absentee voting is not common enough to be influential. The bulk of the voting from a military base comes from family members and local contractors/support personnel. Every unit I was ever a part of had absentee voting rates well under 10%, and even lower when deployed.

Georgia has a pretty normal percentage of military members, according to google it has 88,089, which is the sixth highest. Of that 88,089, expect less then 10% to vote. Of those 8808 votes, expect a partisan split of roughly 55-60% for Trump. This doesn't count people who were already in Georgia when the election was held, which would actually be a pretty substantial portion of them. All those numbers are actually pretty generous, so that is actually about the upper end of what they are likely to do. They might close the gap for Trump by about 800 or so, no more.

[Monster Hunter]

Yeah, doesn't help, that Georgia is also a nation in Europe/ Asia.

Not for long if putin has his way